1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lead show a decrease in inventory, which supports the price. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3]. - This week, lead prices fluctuated at a low level. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East put pressure on risk assets, but factors such as reduced production of recycled lead and increased demand supported the price. The supply of primary lead increased, while some recycled lead enterprises cut production. Downstream enterprises increased raw material replenishment at low prices, causing a rapid decline in domestic social inventory. It is expected that the price will be supported, and appropriate low - buying is recommended. When the profit of recycled lead is repaired, long - positions can be closed. Attention can be paid to the possibility of term positive spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, and Position - **Price**: The Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated between 16,300 - 16,500 yuan/ton this week. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,555 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,455 yuan/ton, with a night - session decrease of 0.60%. The LmeS - Lead 3 price last week was 1,935.5, with a weekly increase of 2.46% [7][8]. - **Spread**: The LME lead 0 - 3 spot discount is relatively large. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the domestic lead social inventory was 57,800 tons, lower than 77,600 tons on March 19. The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,711 tons, and the total Shanghai Lead inventory decreased by 8,531 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 1,025 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio increased by 2.32% [7][8]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 19,821 lots compared to the previous week, and the position decreased by 27,025 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 decreased by 2,881 lots, and the position increased by 6,194 lots [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Recycled Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, actual consumption, and production of lead concentrate are presented in the report. The import TC and domestic TC are also shown. The lead concentrate smelting profit and the lead concentrate operating rate are also included [23][25][26]. - **Primary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead are provided. The by - products of primary lead, such as silver and sulfuric acid, are also mentioned [30][33]. - **Recycled Lead**: The production, operating rate, cost, and profit of recycled lead are presented. The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises and the price of waste electric vehicle batteries are also included [32][37][38]. - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots are shown [40]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries are presented [43]. - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are shown [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lead price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the losses of secondary lead enterprises and their delayed resumption of production support the lead price, downstream demand is weak, and the pressure of imported lead inflow persists [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In February 2026, the import volume of lead concentrate was about 128,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. The import volume in the first two months of this year increased significantly year - on - year. Domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable. The domestic monthly processing fee in March was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160--140 US dollars/dry ton, also with no month - on - month change. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150--120 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [2]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead output was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. The output of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 20, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 62.59%, a week - on - week increase of 1.52%. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 39.57%, a week - on - week increase of 10.42%. The price of waste batteries is firm, and the losses of secondary lead enterprises have expanded, with possible production cuts and delayed resumption of production. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and refined lead imports are in a continuous profitable state, with overseas lead surplus pressure flowing into the domestic market [3]. - **Consumption**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces last week was 73.92%, a week - on - week increase of 0.46%. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises is relatively stable. The terminal consumption of electric bicycles and automobile battery markets is mediocre. Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. Considering the consumption off - season in April, it is expected that the domestic lead ingot social inventory will stop falling and start to rise in mid - to - late April [4]. - **Spot**: As of the week of March 20, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the weekend lead spot basis was a premium of 165 yuan. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 39.51 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 20, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons, with the LME inventory oscillating at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,100 tons. As of March 23, the domestic lead ingot social inventory was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decline, at a moderately high level [4]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply is loose, with high - level oscillation of LME lead inventory and deep spot discounts. Overseas mine supply is gradually recovering, but the release period is mainly in the second half of the year. Although the import volume of lead ore has increased significantly year - on - year, the recovery of domestic lead ore supply is still limited, and the domestic lead ore supply shortage has not improved, with processing fees remaining at a low level. Primary lead enterprises have high production enthusiasm, and the operating rate of primary lead has steadily recovered. Currently, the price of waste batteries is firm, secondary lead enterprises have large losses, and although the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the resumption of production of some enterprises has been delayed. The Shanghai - London price ratio has risen, and the domestic import profit has expanded, with overseas lead surplus pressure shifting to the domestic market. - Currently, the lead price is adjusted at a low level, and battery enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, alleviating the domestic lead inventory pressure. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is still general, and most purchases are for rigid needs. The second quarter is the off - season for lead consumption, demand will weaken month - on - month, and inventory may rise again. - Overall, the large losses of secondary lead enterprises, their delayed resumption of production, and production cuts support the lead price. However, downstream demand is general, and under the pressure of imported inflows, the low - level oscillation of lead is difficult to change. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of production of secondary lead and the domestic inventory situation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated widely at a low level. The Fed's hawkish stance and the escalating situation between the US and Iran led to a decline in interest - rate cut expectations and increased concerns about economic downturn, suppressing the risk - asset market. The fundamentals showed limited improvement. The losses of secondary lead smelters led to an expectation of supply tightening, and the prices of lead ore and waste batteries remained firm, providing cost support. However, poor battery consumption and the inflow of crude lead kept lead ingot inventories at a high level, restricting the rebound space of lead prices. In the short term, both macro and micro supports are limited, and it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate in a low - level range [4][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From March 13th to March 20th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 16,555 yuan/ton to 16,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 1,903 US dollars/ton to 1,889 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.70 to 8.62; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,939 tons to 66,110 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 400 tons to 284,100 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.11 million tons to 7.76 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 190 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2605 of Shanghai lead stabilized at a low level and then fluctuated widely. The downstream battery enterprises' buying improved after the lead price decline, but the cautious macro - sentiment, the collective pressure on the precious metal and non - ferrous metal sectors, and the weak fundamentals restricted the rebound space of lead prices. The weekly decline was 1.9%, closing at 16,290 yuan/ton. The LME lead price fell below the 1,900 US dollars/ton line, with a decline of 0.74%, closing at 1,889 US dollars/ton. In the spot market, there were differences in the prices of electrolytic lead and secondary lead, and the downstream enterprises' purchasing was mainly long - term contracts, with regional differences in the spot market transactions [6] Industry News - On March 20, 2026, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 250 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from the previous period; the import processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/dry ton from the previous period. From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of lead concentrate was 252,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%; the cumulative import volume of silver concentrate was 328,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%. The cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products was 81,234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 270%; the cumulative export volume was 7,798 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.27%. The cumulative export volume of starting lead - acid batteries was 11.3772 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.98%; the cumulative export volume of other lead - acid batteries was 22.6906 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, primary lead and secondary refined lead price difference, enterprise operating rates, secondary lead enterprise profits, electrolytic lead production, lead ingot social inventory, lead ore weekly processing fees, and refined lead import and export profit and loss [11][12][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is rated as cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is in a weak and volatile state. On the supply side, the resumption of production of primary lead is advancing, the production of secondary lead is cut due to losses, and the arrival of imported lead is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of battery production is rising, but the terminal consumption recovery is weak, and the social inventory continues to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impact suppress the lead price, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of the price stop - falling. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 17, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $49.25 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,425 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 15.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 16,450 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 250 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On March 17, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,450 yuan/ton and closed at 16,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 285 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 67,847 lots, a decrease of 6,165 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 51,162 lots, a decrease of 14,887 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,685 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,320 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. [2] Inventory - On March 17, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 17, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, an increase of 75 tons compared with the previous trading day. [2] Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips and conduct sell - hedging in the range from below 16,500 yuan/ton to close to 16,850 yuan/ton. If it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is de - stocking recently, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is under pressure and continues to be weak due to limited improvement in downstream demand, high domestic inventories, and imports. However, the expanding losses and slow resumption of production in the secondary lead sector provide some support to the lead price. Attention should be paid to the resumption of secondary lead production and the progress after secondary lead is included in the delivery system [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was about 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The domestic lead concentrate market is in high demand in winter, and the tight supply situation continues. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees have further declined at low levels. In March, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 140 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged month - on - month. The weekly domestic lead ore processing fee was 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the import weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Primary Lead**: In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic lead production was 283,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.21%. In March, primary lead entered the centralized resumption period. As of the week of March 13, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces increased by 4.11 percentage points to 56.97% week - on - week, and the supply continued to increase slightly. The by - product silver price is at a high level, and the smelting profit is considerable, so the production enthusiasm of primary lead enterprises is high [3]. - **Secondary Lead**: In February 2026, the production of secondary refined lead was 154,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.36%. Affected by losses and environmental protection, the resumption of production is far below expectations. The weekly operating rate of SMM is only 29.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.03%. Although large - scale smelters in Shandong and Jiangxi are expected to increase production this week, the high price of waste batteries and the low price of secondary lead have led to serious losses for secondary lead enterprises, and the situation of active production reduction and postponed resumption of production has increased. Starting from March 17, secondary lead will be officially included in the delivery system as an alternative delivery product, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the standard product. The pricing logic of Shanghai lead has changed to a dual - track pricing of primary and secondary lead, reducing the risk of cornering the market and putting pressure on the overall valuation of the market [3]. - **Imports**: The Shanghai - London price ratio has rebounded, and the import of refined lead has been in a state of continuous profit. The overseas lead surplus pressure has flowed into the domestic market [3]. 3.3 Consumption - **Battery Enterprises**: Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 73.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. In March, major lead - acid battery enterprises have basically resumed normal production. The orders of electric bicycle and automobile battery enterprises mainly come from the post - Spring Festival replenishment of dealers, but the actual consumption improvement in the terminal market is limited. Dealers are not enthusiastic about purchasing, resulting in slow sales of new batteries and high inventory digestion pressure. Battery factories generally accumulate finished product inventories to a high level of 25 - 30 days. Battery factories are extremely cautious in purchasing lead ingots, and most enterprises only maintain a raw material inventory of 4 - 5 days, mainly using the "long - term order pick - up" or "on - demand replenishment" procurement model, and the spot transactions are extremely light [4]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory - **Spot**: As of the week of March 13, the domestic lead spot basis had a small premium, with a weekend premium of 95 yuan. The LME lead spot maintained a deep discount, with a weekend discount of - 47.55 US dollars [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 13, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 1,400 tons to 284,500 tons, and the LME inventory fluctuated at a high level, at an absolute high in the past five years. The weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,220 tons to 76,000 tons. As of March 12, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 77,700 tons, continuing to rise month - on - month and at an absolute high level in the past four years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as "Weak", with a price range of 16,300 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but considering the continuous increase in inventory, it exerts pressure on the phased price. It is expected that the lead price will remain weak overall, and previous short positions can continue to be held [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspect - **Price and Spread**: The Shanghai lead main contract (PB00.SHF) closed at 16,555 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly decline of 1.31%. The night - session closing price was 16,395 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The LME lead 3 - month contract (LmeS - lead3) closed at 1,979, with a weekly increase of 1.70%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium was - 47.55, a decrease of 4.64 compared to the previous week. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: As of March 12, the domestic lead social inventory was 76,500 tons, higher than 67,200 tons on March 5. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 67,019 tons, an increase of 12,643 tons compared to the previous week. The Shanghai lead total inventory was 76,049 tons, an increase of 9,220 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 284,500 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to the previous week [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 45,931 lots, an increase of 6,668 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 63,681 lots, an increase of 6,006 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of the LME 3 - month lead contract was 7,361 lots, an increase of 95 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots compared to the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, actual consumption, and inventory of lead concentrate in previous years are presented in the report. The import TC was - 145 US dollars/ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged compared to the previous week. The lead concentrate smelting profit (processing) is also shown in the report [24][26][27] - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead in previous years are presented. The production of primary lead is increasing, and some smelters are gradually resuming production. The profit of secondary lead is suppressed, and the willingness of recyclers to hoard goods is not strong, resulting in a tight supply of waste batteries. Secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and it is expected that the production of secondary lead will gradually increase [7][30] - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost, and the profit and loss of secondary lead in previous years are presented [33][34][35] - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots in previous years are presented [37] 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries in previous years are presented. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is rising, and the finished - product batteries are continuously reducing inventory [7][41] - **Consumption and End - Users**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles, and the monthly production of motorcycles in previous years are presented. The consumption of automotive lead - acid batteries shows a seasonal decline, but the consumption of lead - acid batteries for energy storage and two - wheeled vehicles is increasing [7][43]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Focus on the Resumption Rhythm of Secondary Lead Production, Lead Prices May Remain Range - Bound [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - In March, both domestic supply and demand of lead have increased. Considering the continuous inflow of imported crude lead and the relatively high domestic social inventory, the Shanghai lead price is under certain pressure. Attention should be paid to the production profit and resumption of work and production rhythm of domestic secondary lead smelting enterprises. If there is a shortage in secondary lead supply, it may push up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the lead price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy for unilateral trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Conditions and Logic 3.1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: Recently, the processing fee of lead concentrates has not rebounded substantially. It is still difficult to raise the mainstream lead concentrate processing fee in March. The phenomenon of extreme low - price ore grabbing has disappeared. Due to the "reverse invoicing" policy, the cost of lead - containing scrap recyclers has increased. Coupled with the inventory needs of some secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of lead - containing scrap is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - **Smelting Side**: This week, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces monitored by SMM was 56.97%, a 5.5% increase from last week. In Henan, some large - scale smelters have resumed normal production, and a smelter that had maintenance in February has resumed production in March. In Hunan, some smelters have resumed production, but some only have the recovery of crude lead production. The SMM weekly operating rate of secondary lead smelters in four provinces was 27.12%, a 2.6% decline from last week. Affected by environmental protection requirements during the Two Sessions, raw material supply shortages, and weak downstream demand, the resumption of secondary lead smelters is concentrated at the end of March, and the operating rate is expected to fluctuate little next week [4] - **Consumption Side**: This week, the SMM weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 71.68%, a 42.41% increase from last week. After the Lantern Festival, the lead - acid battery market has fully recovered. The terminal consumption of electric bicycle and automobile battery markets is average, but dealers' post - holiday replenishment needs have led to good orders for production enterprises, and some large - scale enterprises' production lines are close to full - capacity operation. The increase in the weekly operating rate will slow down in the future [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of March 5, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions reached 67,200 tons, an increase of nearly 100 tons from February 26 and more than 200 tons from March 2 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, since the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, focus on the cost and resumption rhythm of domestic secondary lead smelting enterprises. The lead price is expected to remain range - bound, and it is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [4] 3.1.2 - 3.1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided in the given text 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **Primary Lead Raw Material Supply**: It involves global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import and export profits, domestic lead concentrate supply, and domestic mine operating rates, etc., but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][23][26] - **Secondary Lead Raw Material Supply**: It includes the price of lead - containing scrap, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [34][35][38] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - **Global Refined Lead**: It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [42][44][46] - **Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export**: It involves import and export profits, import and export volumes, and net export volumes, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [49] - **Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits**: It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid benefits, and silver benefits, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [51] - **Primary Lead Supply**: It includes the operating rate and production of primary lead smelters and the production of electrolytic lead's main delivery brands, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [55][56] - **Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits**: It includes the costs and profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [58][62] - **Secondary Lead Supply**: It includes the operating rate and production of secondary lead smelters and the production of secondary crude lead, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [67][68] - **Domestic Lead Ingot Supply**: It is composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net exports, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [71][72] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: It includes the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealers' finished inventory, export and import volumes, and enterprises' finished inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [78][79] - **Lead Alloys and Their Plates**: It involves lead alloy prices, lead alloy and lead plate import and export, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [81][82] - **Automobiles**: It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [84][85][87] - **Motorcycles, Electricity, and Communications**: It includes motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power engineering (including power grid and power source projects), but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [89][90][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The lead industry is rated as "Weak", with a price range of 16,300 - 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, lead prices rebounded and then slightly declined. The highest price of Shanghai lead during the week was 17,010 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.09%. Geopolitical factors in the Middle East have little impact on lead prices, and the logic of lead mainly depends on supply - demand fundamentals [9] - On the supply side, primary lead production increased as some smelters gradually resumed production. Recycling lead profit slightly recovered, but the supply of scrap batteries was tight. However, considering the gradual resumption of production by recycling enterprises, it is expected that the production of recycled lead will gradually increase. Lead - acid battery enterprises have started to resume work and production, with a rapid increase in battery operating rates. Logistics has gradually recovered, and stores have increased their demand for lead - acid batteries, leading to a continuous reduction in battery finished - product inventory [9] - In terms of social inventory, the total inventory of lead ingots in five regions increased, being at a moderately high level compared to the same period in history, but the inventory growth rate significantly slowed down. High inventory put pressure on the spot market, and the spot discount widened. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has specified that recycled lead (alternative delivery product) will have a discount of 150 yuan/ton compared to primary lead (standard product), starting from March 17, which will also affect the premium and discount of primary lead. The pricing mechanism has changed from "primary lead pricing" to "dual - track pricing of primary and recycled lead". When the premium of primary lead is too high, downstream users will turn to recycled lead, suppressing the premium and discount range of primary lead [9] - For trading strategies, in the lead market, there is a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. However, considering more delivery products, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the inventory of recycled lead and primary lead. It is expected that lead prices will remain weak overall [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,775 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.39%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,765 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.06%. The LME lead 3 - month contract had a closing price of 1,953 last week, with a decline of 0.36% [10] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,441 tons to 54,376 tons; the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 2,162 tons to 66,829 tons; the social inventory increased by 100 tons to 67,200 tons; the LME lead inventory decreased by 200 tons to 285,900 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 1.97%, an increase of 0.12% compared to the previous week [10] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 39,263 lots, a decrease of 9,806 lots compared to the previous week, and the position was 57,675 lots, a decrease of 6,169 lots. The trading volume of the LME 3 - month lead contract was 7,266 lots, an increase of 1,755 lots, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [10] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Recycled Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic production of lead concentrate showed certain trends over the years. The lead concentrate inventory in Lianyungang also fluctuated. The import TC and domestic TC had their own values, and the lead smelting profit (processing) also changed over time [27][29][30] - **Primary Lead and Recycled Lead**: Primary lead production and the combined production of primary and recycled lead showed an upward trend in some periods. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead also changed. The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of sulfuric acid in East China, were also presented [34][35][36] - **Waste Battery and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead all had their own trends [39][40][41] - **Import and Export**: The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots were presented [42] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - **Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased, and the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers decreased. The export volume of batteries also showed certain trends [46] - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles and motorcycles all had their own trends [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In February, the lead price declined and then stabilized. Although there was significant inventory accumulation of lead ingots both at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the declining smelting profit of smelting enterprises may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term, and is expected to gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - From February 2nd to March 4th, the Shanghai lead weighted index fell 0.71% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the total position of Shanghai lead increased slightly by 0.66 million lots to 11.15 million lots. The LME lead 3M contract fell 2.71% to 1,941 US dollars/ton, and the position of the LME lead 3M contract remained basically flat at 17.17 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,525 yuan/ton, the refined scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton. Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton. Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [11]. - Industrial data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons, the recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.26% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6% [15]. - In February 2026, China's lead concentrate output was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -9.7% and a month - on - month change of -29.4%. From January to February, the total lead concentrate output was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [17]. - In December 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore output was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of -1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total lead ore output was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -1.16% [19]. - The port inventory of lead concentrates was 52,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 487,000 tons, equivalent to 31.9 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was -145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrates was 250 yuan/metal ton, with a slight increase in lead concentrate TC [21][23]. - The primary smelting start - up rate was 51.47%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 48,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead output was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of -17.1%. From January to February, the total primary lead ingot output was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 104,000 tons. The recycled smelting start - up rate was 20.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 28,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead output was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of -2.9% and a month - on - month change of -40.4%. From January to February, the total recycled lead ingot output was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was -28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was -146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -22.13%. In December, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of -1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 29.3%. In December 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of -0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 16.649 million, a year - on - year change of -35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was -13.06% [41]. - In January 2026, the finished product inventory of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 21.5 days to 23.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 43.6 days to 40.74 days [43]. - In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. The automobile sector's contribution to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. With the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, some large enterprises use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, but the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the development of communication technology has driven the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons, and from January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons, and from January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - Domestic structure: The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons. As of March 5th, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 67,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to March 2nd. The domestic primary basis was -125 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continuous contract was -80 yuan/ton [69]. - Overseas structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 5,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was -48.23 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -132.5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Cross - market structure: After excluding exchange rates, the disk Shanghai - London ratio was 1.251, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 569.79 yuan/ton [74]. - The net short position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Option: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The processing fees at the mine end remain stable. The operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead have decreased first and then increased, but the resumption of production is slow. The recycled lead industry is deeply in a loss situation that is difficult to change. [3] - Terminal consumption gradually recovers after a seasonal decline, but the willingness to replenish inventory is weak. [3] - Both domestic and foreign inventories have reached new highs, suppressing the upward space of lead prices. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 3, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.76/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. [1] - The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -15.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. [1] - The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On March 3, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,945 yuan/ton and closed at 16,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 53,661 lots, a decrease of 6,926 lots compared with the previous trading day. [2] - The position was 60,215 lots, a decrease of 3,747 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,020 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,825 yuan/ton. [2] - In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,780 yuan/ton and closed at 16,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. [2] Inventory - On March 3, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 67,000 tons, a decrease of 20 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 3, the LME lead inventory was 286,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [2] Strategy - Pay attention to the inventory inflection point in mid - to late March and the resumption progress of recycled lead production. It is recommended that smelting enterprises hedge at high prices to lock in profits, downstream enterprises replenish inventory on demand at low prices, and investors be cautiously bullish, paying attention to the breakthrough situation in the range of 16,300 - 17,200 yuan/ton. [3] - Enterprises with different needs for buying or selling hedging can conduct buying or selling hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range. [3]