Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a surplus of 30,000 tons in the global lead market for the period of January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10,000 tons during the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Summary - Global refined lead production for January to July 2025 is projected at 7,702 thousand tons, an increase from 7,537 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global refined lead consumption for January to July 2025 is estimated at 7,672 thousand tons, slightly up from 7,527 thousand tons in the previous year [1] - The supply-demand balance for global refined lead shows a surplus of 30 thousand tons for January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The lead market lacks driving forces, and prices are fluctuating. The trend strength of lead is neutral [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%, while the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at $2,020.5/ton, down 0.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 46,763 lots, an increase of 344 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 5,355 lots, a decrease of 734 lots [1]. - **Position and Premium**: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 73,327 lots, an increase of 3,335 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 142,292 lots, an increase of 1,567 lots. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$23.42/ton, an increase of $0.85/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 59,959 tons, unchanged, and the LME lead inventory was 266,275 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 71,425 tons, an increase of 600 tons [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -850.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.34 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -698.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 41.6 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of secondary lead was -481 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement and said an agreement might be reached. Most agreements are expected to be completed before August. The possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [2]. - In June, the preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders was -9.3%, the largest monthly decline since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [2]. - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2].