截至2025年底，包括伦敦金属交易所、上海期货交易所及其他报告的库存量略有增加，达到55.5万吨。 中国精矿中含铅的净进口量增长了14.1%，达到124 万吨；而精炼铅的净进口量则下降至5.2万吨，低于 上年的12.6万吨。 以下为详细数据（单位：千吨） | (单位为1,000吨) | 2025年12月 | 2025年11月 | 2025年 | 2024年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球矿山铝产量 | 402. 2 | 402. 4 | 4,575 | 4,541 | | 全球精炼铅产里 | 1, 185. 1 | 1, 173.0 | 13, 633 | 13, 416 | | 全球精炼铝消费里 | 1, 158. 1 | 1, 150. 8 | 13,563 | 13, 355 | | 全球精炼铝供需平衡 | 27.0 | 22.2 | 70 | 61 | 2025年全球矿山铅产量增长了0.8%，其中中国、印度、秘鲁、土耳其和欧洲的产量有所增长，但澳大 利亚、哈萨克斯坦和美国的产量则有所下降。全球生产中的回收产量大致保持在67.4%不变，而2024年 这一比例 ...

沪铅震荡偏弱延续 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比下降50元/吨；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比下降5美元/干吨。 供应：SMM显示：2025年12月原生铅产量为33.27万吨，环比增加1.56%，同比增加1.56%，当月产量高于预期；2025年12月再生 精铅产量为26.84万吨，环比减少9.35%，同比增加0.83%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率66.85%，周环比下滑0.19%。河南地 区开工稳定，个别小厂产量边际波动；湖南地区此前粗铅检修的冶炼厂生产恢复后电解铅产量小幅提产至稳定生产。另一冶炼 厂粗铅检修后电解铅产量周度下滑，但暂未完全停产；云南地区冶炼厂生产维持稳定； ...

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined lead supply shortage of 11,500 tons in November 2025, with production at 113,180 tons and consumption at 114,320 tons [1] - From January to November 2025, global refined lead production totaled 1,230,110 tons, while consumption reached 1,251,120 tons, resulting in a supply shortfall of 21,010 tons [1] - In November 2025, global lead mine production was recorded at 40,780 tons [1] - For the period of January to November 2025, global lead mine production amounted to 422,490 tons [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a 2026 annual report on lead in the non - ferrous metals sector, dated December 31, 2025, with the title "Regeneration of Lead Supply Contradiction Continues and Lead Price Fluctuates Widely" [4][10][18] Group 2: Fundamental Information Lead Concentrate - Global and domestic lead concentrate production data are presented in multiple figures, including production in thousands of tons and million tons [28][34][39] - Lead concentrate import data such as import volume and import profit and loss are provided [31] - Domestic lead concentrate production and total supply data from 2024 - 2025 are detailed in a table, showing monthly production, year - on - year growth, net import volume, and total supply [91] Refined Lead - Global refined lead production, demand, and balance are shown, with data in thousands of tons [48][53] - In China, data on electrolytic lead monthly production, smelting start - up rates (both total and by scale) for primary and secondary lead are presented, along with smelting costs and profits [65][67][74] - Refined lead import and export data, including import and export volume and profit and loss, are provided [80][81] - Domestic lead ingot total supply and apparent consumption data are presented [89] Lead Consumption - Data on lead - acid battery production, including monthly and weekly start - up rates, export and import, and inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers, are provided [102][109][112] - Data on automobile, new - energy vehicle, motorcycle production, and export, as well as power project investment and communication base - station construction, are presented, which are related to lead consumption [120][122][130] - Global and domestic lead balance tables are provided, showing data from 2019 - 2026E, including production at the mine and smelting ends, consumption, and balance [144][145] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The report includes a section on future outlook and strategy recommendation, although the specific content is not provided in the given text [146]

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global refined lead consumption of 1.1157 million tons in October 2025, an increase from 1.0692 million tons in September 2025 [1] - The global refined lead market experienced a supply shortage of 14,400 tons in October 2025, compared to a shortage of 14,100 tons in September 2025 [1] - For the period from January to October 2025, global refined lead consumption reached 10.933 million tons, up from 10.773 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Consumption and Production Data - Global refined lead production in October 2025 was 1.1013 million tons, an increase from 1.0551 million tons in September 2025 [1] - The total global refined lead production from January to October 2025 was 10.953 million tons, compared to 10.773 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global mine production of lead in October 2025 was 403,000 tons, up from 392,300 tons in September 2025 [1] Supply and Demand Balance - The global lead market showed a supply surplus of 20,000 tons from January to October 2025, contrasting with a balanced supply-demand situation in the same period of 2024 [1] - The supply-demand balance for October 2025 indicated a continued tightening in the market, with a notable shift from surplus to shortage [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market will experience wide - range fluctuations in 2026. The supply of lead concentrates will shift from shortage to tight balance, with global new capacity increasing from 110,000 tons in 2025 to 230,000 tons in 2026. The processing fees are expected to remain low with a narrowing decline. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise due to supply - demand mismatch [2][71]. - The growth of global refined lead supply will slow down in 2026. Domestic primary lead production will increase by 100,000 tons to 3.94 million tons, while secondary lead production may decrease by 0.5% year - on - year due to the implementation of the new national standard and constraints on raw materials and profits [2][71]. - Policy support for terminal consumption is expected to continue, with replacement demand and new - standard electric vehicle demand driving battery consumption. However, battery exports will face challenges from trade barriers and technological substitution, leading to a slight decline in consumption growth [2][71]. - Overall, macro - drivers are moderately positive, and cost support and rigid procurement will underpin lead prices. But increased supply and falling demand growth may lead to a wider supply - demand surplus, causing the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures to fluctuate widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [2][72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lead Market Review - In 2025, Shanghai lead futures showed wide - range fluctuations, mainly between 16,165 - 17,840 yuan/ton. By December 10, the main contract price closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.7% from the beginning of the year [7]. - London lead futures were slightly weaker than Shanghai lead. By December 10, the price closed at 1,988 US dollars/ton, up 2.8% from the beginning of the year [8]. 3.2 Lead Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Lead Ore Supply - In 2025, global new lead concentrate capacity was 110,000 tons, with overseas capacity increasing by about 60,000 tons and domestic by about 55,000 tons. In 2026, global new capacity is expected to increase to 230,000 tons, with overseas at 90,000 tons and domestic at 143,000 tons [12][13][14]. - In 2025, lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, with domestic and imported fees dropping by 300 yuan/metal ton and 125 US dollars/dry ton respectively by December. In 2026, processing fees are expected to remain weak with a slowdown in the decline [21]. - In 2025, lead ore imports increased by 10% year - on - year to about 1.36 million tons. In 2026, the growth rate is expected to slow to about 5%. Silver concentrate imports are expected to grow steadily [22][23]. 3.2.2 Refined Lead Supply - In 2025, global refined lead production increased by 4.42% to 13.341 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to grow by 1% to 13.472 million tons [27][30]. - In 2025, domestic primary lead production increased by 6.4% to 3.84 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by 2.6% to 3.94 million tons [32]. - In 2025, domestic secondary lead production decreased by 0.5% to 3.176 million tons. In 2026, with the implementation of the new national standard, production is expected to decrease by another 0.5% to 3.16 million tons [37][40]. 3.2.3 Refined Lead Demand - In 2025, global refined lead consumption increased by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons, with a surplus of 91,000 tons. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons, with a slightly wider surplus [49][50]. - In 2025, refined lead and lead products had a net import, while battery exports decreased significantly. In 2026, the export growth of refined lead and lead products is expected to slow, and net imports will continue. Battery exports will still face challenges but may decline at a slower pace [52][53]. - Policy support for terminal consumption will continue. In 2026, electric bicycle and automobile sectors will maintain demand for lead - acid batteries, and the energy storage sector will see stable growth, but lithium - ion battery substitution will pose long - term pressure [57][60][61]. 3.2.4 Inventory Performance - In 2025, LME lead inventory increased slightly and fluctuated at a high level, reaching 236,900 tons by December 9. Domestic inventory decreased significantly, dropping to 20,500 tons by December 8 [66]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook for the Future - In 2026, the lead market will be affected by cost and supply - demand factors, with the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuating widely between 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [72].

Group 1: Nickel and Aluminum - In September 2025, global refined nickel production was 325,500 tons, with consumption at 308,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 17,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,876,900 tons, while consumption was 2,602,400 tons, leading to a surplus of 274,500 tons [1] - In September 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6,016,300 tons, with consumption at 6,208,400 tons, resulting in a shortage of 192,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 54,549,900 tons, while consumption was 55,835,300 tons, leading to a shortage of 1,285,400 tons [1] Group 2: Lead and Tin - In September 2025, global refined lead production was 1,137,900 tons, with consumption at 4,800 tons, resulting in a surplus of 1,133,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined lead production reached 10,064,100 tons, while consumption was 9,122,700 tons, leading to a surplus of 941,400 tons [1] - In September 2025, global refined tin production was 32,500 tons, with consumption at 27,600 tons, resulting in a surplus of 4,900 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined tin production totaled 260,200 tons, while consumption was 269,500 tons, leading to a shortage of 9,200 tons [1] Group 3: Copper and Zinc - In September 2025, global refined copper production was 2,333,300 tons, with consumption at 2,414,500 tons, resulting in a shortage of 81,300 tons [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined copper production reached 20,616,000 tons, while consumption was 20,491,400 tons, leading to a surplus of 124,600 tons [2] - In September 2025, global zinc production was 1,193,500 tons, with consumption at 1,229,200 tons, resulting in a shortage of 35,700 tons [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, global zinc production totaled 10,363,200 tons, while consumption was 10,736,900 tons, leading to a shortage of 373,700 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - Toho Zinc plans to increase refined lead production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to 41,300 tons, a 10.5% increase from 37,369 tons in the same period last year [1] Production Plans - The production for the first half of the fiscal year is reported at 39,700 tons [1] - The second half of the fiscal year runs from October 2025 to March 2026 [1] Business Strategy - Toho Zinc has suspended major facilities at its Annaka smelting and refining plant in northern Tokyo by the end of March 2025, marking its exit from the zinc smelting business [1] - The announcement of the production plan was delayed this year to allow time for analysis of the reasons behind the production decline in the first half of the fiscal year and to consider countermeasures [1]

Group 1: Lead Market Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global refined lead market by 2026, with a surplus of 102,000 tons [1] - Global refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons in 2023 and by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons in 2026 [1] - Refined lead mine supply is projected to increase by 0.7% to 4.57 million tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 4.67 million tons in 2026 [1] Group 2: Zinc Market Insights - Global refined zinc demand is anticipated to grow by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026 [2] - Refined zinc metal production is expected to rise by 2.7% to 13.80 million tons in 2025 and further increase by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026 [2] - A surplus of 85,000 tons in refined zinc supply is expected in 2025, with the surplus projected to increase to 271,000 tons in 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a surplus of 30,000 tons in the global lead market for the period of January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10,000 tons during the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Summary - Global refined lead production for January to July 2025 is projected at 7,702 thousand tons, an increase from 7,537 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global refined lead consumption for January to July 2025 is estimated at 7,672 thousand tons, slightly up from 7,527 thousand tons in the previous year [1] - The supply-demand balance for global refined lead shows a surplus of 30 thousand tons for January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1]