| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 4 | | | | 4 | | | | 8 | | | | 16 | | | | 22 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 22 | | | | 免责声明 | 24 | 铅 2026 年报 有色板块研发报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 再生铅供应矛盾延续 铅价宽幅震荡 第一部分 前言概要 第 2 页 共 24 页 银河期货 有色板块研发报告 铅 2026 年报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 图 1：价格回顾 图 2： SHFE 铅价 单位：元/吨 图 3： LME 铅价 单位：美元/吨 第 3 页 共 24 页 图 6：国内铅锭库存 单位：万吨 图 7： LME 库存 单位：万吨 有色板块研发报告 铅 2026 年报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 图 4：沪铅月差 单位：元/吨 图 5：沪铅成交与持仓 单位：万手 第二部分 基本面情况 第 4 页 共 24 页 铅 2026 年报 有色板块研发报告 2025 年 12 ...

12月17日（周三），国际铅锌研究小组(ILZSG)公布的最新月度报告显示，2025年10月全球精炼铅消费 量为111.57万吨，9月为106.92万吨。2025年1-10月全球精炼铅消费量为1093.3万吨，上年同期为1077.3 万吨。 | (单位为1,000吨) | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | 2025年1-10月 | 2024年1-10月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球矿山铝产里 | 403.0 | 392. 3 | 3,737 | 3,734 | | 全球精炼铅产里 | 1, 101. 3 | 1,055.1 | 10, 953 | 10, 773 | | 全球精炼铅消费里 | 1, 115. 7 | 1,069.2 | 10, 933 | 10, 773 | | 全球椿炼铅供需平衡 | -14.4 | -14.1 | 20 | 0 | 2025年10月全球铅市为供应短缺1.44万吨，9月为供应短缺1.41万吨。2025年1-10月全球铅市为供应过剩 2.0万吨，上年同期为供需平衡。 以下为详细数据（单位：千吨） ...

铅年报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 成本与过剩角力 铅价宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/20 铅市宽幅震荡 原生端，2025年全球铅精矿新增产能11 万吨，2026 年小幅增加至 23 万吨，铅精矿供应由短缺装向紧 平衡。预计内外加工费保持低位，跌幅收窄。废 旧电瓶报废量较稳定，供应难以匹配需求，供需 错配的格局下，废旧电瓶价格易涨难跌。 冶炼端，预计 2026 年全球精炼铅供应增幅放缓， 其中国内原生铅产量增加 10 万吨至 394 万吨，主 要由火烧云及新凌铅业新增项目贡献，增幅收窄。 再生铅新国标落地实施将加速行业洗牌，原料及 利润的双重掣肘难改，炼厂产能利用率预计保持 低位，全年产量 ...

Group 1: Nickel and Aluminum - In September 2025, global refined nickel production was 325,500 tons, with consumption at 308,400 tons, resulting in a surplus of 17,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,876,900 tons, while consumption was 2,602,400 tons, leading to a surplus of 274,500 tons [1] - In September 2025, global primary aluminum production was 6,016,300 tons, with consumption at 6,208,400 tons, resulting in a shortage of 192,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 54,549,900 tons, while consumption was 55,835,300 tons, leading to a shortage of 1,285,400 tons [1] Group 2: Lead and Tin - In September 2025, global refined lead production was 1,137,900 tons, with consumption at 4,800 tons, resulting in a surplus of 1,133,100 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined lead production reached 10,064,100 tons, while consumption was 9,122,700 tons, leading to a surplus of 941,400 tons [1] - In September 2025, global refined tin production was 32,500 tons, with consumption at 27,600 tons, resulting in a surplus of 4,900 tons [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined tin production totaled 260,200 tons, while consumption was 269,500 tons, leading to a shortage of 9,200 tons [1] Group 3: Copper and Zinc - In September 2025, global refined copper production was 2,333,300 tons, with consumption at 2,414,500 tons, resulting in a shortage of 81,300 tons [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, global refined copper production reached 20,616,000 tons, while consumption was 20,491,400 tons, leading to a surplus of 124,600 tons [2] - In September 2025, global zinc production was 1,193,500 tons, with consumption at 1,229,200 tons, resulting in a shortage of 35,700 tons [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, global zinc production totaled 10,363,200 tons, while consumption was 10,736,900 tons, leading to a shortage of 373,700 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - Toho Zinc plans to increase refined lead production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to 41,300 tons, a 10.5% increase from 37,369 tons in the same period last year [1] Production Plans - The production for the first half of the fiscal year is reported at 39,700 tons [1] - The second half of the fiscal year runs from October 2025 to March 2026 [1] Business Strategy - Toho Zinc has suspended major facilities at its Annaka smelting and refining plant in northern Tokyo by the end of March 2025, marking its exit from the zinc smelting business [1] - The announcement of the production plan was delayed this year to allow time for analysis of the reasons behind the production decline in the first half of the fiscal year and to consider countermeasures [1]

Group 1: Lead Market Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) forecasts a significant oversupply in the global refined lead market by 2026, with a surplus of 102,000 tons [1] - Global refined lead demand is expected to grow by 1.8% to 13.25 million tons in 2023 and by 0.9% to 13.37 million tons in 2026 [1] - Refined lead mine supply is projected to increase by 0.7% to 4.57 million tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 4.67 million tons in 2026 [1] Group 2: Zinc Market Insights - Global refined zinc demand is anticipated to grow by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026 [2] - Refined zinc metal production is expected to rise by 2.7% to 13.80 million tons in 2025 and further increase by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026 [2] - A surplus of 85,000 tons in refined zinc supply is expected in 2025, with the surplus projected to increase to 271,000 tons in 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a surplus of 30,000 tons in the global lead market for the period of January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10,000 tons during the same period in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Summary - Global refined lead production for January to July 2025 is projected at 7,702 thousand tons, an increase from 7,537 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global refined lead consumption for January to July 2025 is estimated at 7,672 thousand tons, slightly up from 7,527 thousand tons in the previous year [1] - The supply-demand balance for global refined lead shows a surplus of 30 thousand tons for January to July 2025, compared to a surplus of 10 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1]

Core Insights - China's refined lead imports in August 2025 totaled 1,820.55 tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 46.72% and a year-on-year decrease of 96.58% [1] Import Data Summary - Kazakhstan was the largest source of refined lead imports, with 719.26 tons imported, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 72.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 96.65% [1] - Kyrgyzstan ranked second, with imports of 438.03 tons, which increased by 78.92% month-on-month and 99.49% year-on-year [1] - The Philippines imported 329.75 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 59.57% but a year-on-year decrease of 17.30% [1] - Malaysia's imports were 201.43 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.78% [1] - India imported 102.55 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.24% but a significant year-on-year decrease of 99.06% [1] - Other notable imports included 23.70 tons from "地都國士" with a month-on-month decrease of 11.63% and 5.83 tons from Germany, which saw an extraordinary month-on-month increase of 583,200% [1] - Overall, the total refined lead imports for August 2025 were significantly lower compared to previous periods, indicating a potential shift in sourcing or demand dynamics in the market [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined lead surplus of 22,000 tons in July 2025, with production at 1,127,500 tons and consumption at 1,105,400 tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, there was a global refined lead shortage of 156,900 tons, with production totaling 7,782,800 tons and consumption at 7,939,700 tons [1] - In July 2025, global lead mine production reached 399,100 tons, while the total for January to July 2025 was 2,656,400 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global lead market shows a large visible inventory pressure, and the expected increase in supply from new capacity will suppress lead prices. However, the cost support is relatively stable, and the potential production cut expectation caused by refinery losses also provides a bottom - support for lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in August, and its upside space depends on the actual improvement in the consumption end [2][72][73]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In July, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a volatile decline. Affected by factors such as the passing of the US bill, good domestic PMI data, and the approaching consumption peak season at the beginning of the month, the lead price was firm. In the middle of the month, due to factors like inventory increase and less - than - expected downstream consumption improvement, the lead price adjusted. After the news of some Middle - Eastern countries imposing additional tariffs on lead - battery exports, the lead price decline was magnified. Finally, it closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.7%. The London lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 1,969.5 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.93% [7]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.8111 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Overseas mine production showed different year - on - year changes, indicating a slow recovery rhythm. In China, from January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate production was 787,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13%. It is expected that the global lead concentrate supply will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with an expected overseas increase of 100,000 tons and a domestic increase of about 70,000 tons, and the global lead mine production growth rate will be 2.3% to 4620,000 tons [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. The import of lead concentrate maintained a loss, but the monthly import volume remained at a relatively high level. In June, the silver concentrate import volume was 126,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 847,000 tons. With the continuous high price of by - product silver, the import demand remained high [18][20]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 5.5066 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [22]. - **Refineries are resuming production, and the electrolytic lead production in August is expected to increase month - on - month**: In July, the electrolytic lead production was 321,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the production in August will be 338,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13% [26]. - **The price of waste batteries remains high, and new projects contribute to the increase in production**: In July, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the price will remain firm in August. In July, the production of recycled refined lead was 258,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.96%. It is expected that the production in August will be 273,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.16% [32][33]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 5.4887 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.69%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons [44]. - **Lead - battery enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the sector shows differentiation**: In July, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries was good, while the consumption of automobile starting batteries was mixed. In August, it is expected that the battery consumption will continue to be differentiated [48]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports, and imports supplement raw material ratios**: In June, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased year - on - year. The high Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot exports, and the battery export is also affected by factors such as tariff increases [49][50]. - **Policy guidance improves the marginal consumption prospects of lead - batteries**: In the automobile sector, the battery replacement demand is stable, and the new - car demand is expected to continue to be good. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is large, and policies such as trade - in and new national standards will stimulate consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the demand for lead - batteries is expected to grow [58][60][62]. 2.4 Global Visible Inventory is Rising - In July, the global visible lead inventory was under pressure. The LME inventory remained high, and the domestic lead ingot inventory increased. If the consumption in August does not improve significantly, the inventory may continue to rise [67]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase in August, but the refinery profit is compressed. The supply of recycled lead is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but there is a possibility of unexpected production cuts. The demand is differentiated, and the traditional consumption peak season is slightly lower than expected. The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely in August, and its upside depends on the consumption improvement [72][73].