世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球原铝产量为601.63万吨，消费量为 620.84万吨，供应短缺19.21万吨。2025年1-9月，全球原铝产量为5454.99万吨，消费量为5583.53万吨， 供应短缺128.54万吨。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球锌板产量为119.35万吨，消费量为 122.92万吨，供应短缺3.57万吨。2025年1-9月，全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨，消费量为1073.69万吨， 供应短缺37.37万吨。 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼铅产量为113.79万吨，消费量 为0.48万吨，供应过剩113.31万吨。2025年1-9月，全球精炼铅产量为1006.41万吨，消费量为912.27万 吨，供应过剩94.14万吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） 世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年9月，全球精炼锡产量为3.25万吨，消费量为 2.76万吨，供应过剩0.49万吨。2025年1-9月，全球精炼锡产量为26.02万吨，消费量为26.95万吨，供应 短缺0.92 ...

Core Viewpoint - Toho Zinc plans to increase refined lead production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to 41,300 tons, a 10.5% increase from 37,369 tons in the same period last year [1] Production Plans - The production for the first half of the fiscal year is reported at 39,700 tons [1] - The second half of the fiscal year runs from October 2025 to March 2026 [1] Business Strategy - Toho Zinc has suspended major facilities at its Annaka smelting and refining plant in northern Tokyo by the end of March 2025, marking its exit from the zinc smelting business [1] - The announcement of the production plan was delayed this year to allow time for analysis of the reasons behind the production decline in the first half of the fiscal year and to consider countermeasures [1]

该小组预期，2025年全球精炼铅供应将超过需求91,000吨。 10月13日（周一），国际铅锌研究小组（ILZSG）称，2026年全球精炼锌和精炼锌市场将面临大幅供应 过剩。 预计2025年，全球精炼锌金属产量将增长2.7%，达到1,380万吨。 2026年全球锌产量预计将进一步增长2.4%，达到1,413万吨。 2025年全球精炼锌供应将超过需求，预计过剩程度将达到8.5万吨。 2026年精炼锌金属过剩规模预计将达到27.1万吨。 2026年，全球精炼铅的过剩规模将略大，达到10.2万吨。 ILZSG预计，今年全球精炼铅需求将增长1.8%至1,325万吨，2026年将增长0.9%至1,337万吨。 预计2025年全球铅矿山供应将增长0.7%至457万吨，2026年增长2.2%至467万吨。 2025年全球精炼锌需求将增长1.1%至1,371万吨，2026年将增长1%至1,386万吨。 ...

9月24日（周三），国际铅锌研究小组（ILZSG）公布的数据显示，2025年1-7月全球铅市场供应过剩量 为30,000吨，而上年同期的供应过剩量为10,000吨。 以下为详细数据（单位：千吨） | (单位为1,000吨) | 2025年1-7月 | 2024年1-7月 | 2024年 | 2023年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球精炼铅产里 | 7,702 | 7,537 | 13,067 | 13, 267 | | 全球精炼铅消费里 | 7,672 | 7,527 | 13, 013 | 13, 106 | | 全球精炼铝供需平衡 | 30 | 10 | 54 | 161 | ...

以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年8月精炼铅进口分项数据一览表： | 原产地 | 2025年8月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 719.26 | -72.63% | -96.65% | | 吉尔吉斯斯坦 | 438.03 | 78.92% | 99.49% | | 菲律宾 | 329.75 | 59.57% | -17.30% | | 马来西亚 | 201.43 | | -37.78% | | 印度 | 102.55 | 3.24% | -99.06% | | 地都國士 | 23.70 | -11.63% | -- | | 德国 | 5.83 | 583200.00% | | | 总计 | 1,820.55 | -46.72% | -96.58% | 数据来源：海关总署 注：进口/出口总量（总计）中亦包括上表未列出的部分原产地数据 海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年8月精炼铅（未锻轧的精炼铅）进口量为 1,820.55吨，环比下降46.72%，同比减少96.58%。 哈萨克斯坦是第一大进口来源地，当月从哈萨 ...

2025年7月，全球铅矿产量为39.91万吨。 9月17日（周三），世界金属统计局(WBMS)在其网站上公布数据显示，2025年7月，全球精炼铅产量为 112.75万吨，消费量为110.54万吨，供应过剩2.2万吨。 2025年1-7月，全球精炼铅产量为778.28万吨，消费量为793.97万吨，供应短缺15.69万吨。 2025年1-7月，全球铅矿产量为265.64万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global lead market shows a large visible inventory pressure, and the expected increase in supply from new capacity will suppress lead prices. However, the cost support is relatively stable, and the potential production cut expectation caused by refinery losses also provides a bottom - support for lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in August, and its upside space depends on the actual improvement in the consumption end [2][72][73]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In July, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a volatile decline. Affected by factors such as the passing of the US bill, good domestic PMI data, and the approaching consumption peak season at the beginning of the month, the lead price was firm. In the middle of the month, due to factors like inventory increase and less - than - expected downstream consumption improvement, the lead price adjusted. After the news of some Middle - Eastern countries imposing additional tariffs on lead - battery exports, the lead price decline was magnified. Finally, it closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.7%. The London lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 1,969.5 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.93% [7]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.8111 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Overseas mine production showed different year - on - year changes, indicating a slow recovery rhythm. In China, from January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate production was 787,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13%. It is expected that the global lead concentrate supply will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with an expected overseas increase of 100,000 tons and a domestic increase of about 70,000 tons, and the global lead mine production growth rate will be 2.3% to 4620,000 tons [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. The import of lead concentrate maintained a loss, but the monthly import volume remained at a relatively high level. In June, the silver concentrate import volume was 126,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 847,000 tons. With the continuous high price of by - product silver, the import demand remained high [18][20]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 5.5066 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [22]. - **Refineries are resuming production, and the electrolytic lead production in August is expected to increase month - on - month**: In July, the electrolytic lead production was 321,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the production in August will be 338,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13% [26]. - **The price of waste batteries remains high, and new projects contribute to the increase in production**: In July, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the price will remain firm in August. In July, the production of recycled refined lead was 258,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.96%. It is expected that the production in August will be 273,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.16% [32][33]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 5.4887 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.69%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons [44]. - **Lead - battery enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the sector shows differentiation**: In July, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries was good, while the consumption of automobile starting batteries was mixed. In August, it is expected that the battery consumption will continue to be differentiated [48]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports, and imports supplement raw material ratios**: In June, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased year - on - year. The high Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot exports, and the battery export is also affected by factors such as tariff increases [49][50]. - **Policy guidance improves the marginal consumption prospects of lead - batteries**: In the automobile sector, the battery replacement demand is stable, and the new - car demand is expected to continue to be good. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is large, and policies such as trade - in and new national standards will stimulate consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the demand for lead - batteries is expected to grow [58][60][62]. 2.4 Global Visible Inventory is Rising - In July, the global visible lead inventory was under pressure. The LME inventory remained high, and the domestic lead ingot inventory increased. If the consumption in August does not improve significantly, the inventory may continue to rise [67]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase in August, but the refinery profit is compressed. The supply of recycled lead is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but there is a possibility of unexpected production cuts. The demand is differentiated, and the traditional consumption peak season is slightly lower than expected. The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely in August, and its upside depends on the consumption improvement [72][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].