Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of poor consumption and high finished - product inventory. The primary lead ore inventory remains tight with processing fees declining rapidly. The primary lead smelting profit is good, and the primary lead operating rate has increased again. The recycled lead raw materials are in short supply, and the recycled lead operating rate has slightly declined. The battery operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is weaker than that of the same period in previous years. The finished - product inventory of lead - acid batteries is at a historical high, and the terminal consumption pressure is large. The social inventory of lead ingots maintains a slow accumulation trend. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly operate weakly [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.43% at 16,849 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 99,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 4 to $1,987.5/ton with a total position of 154,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 80 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30% [11]. - **Industry Information**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan received a notice from relevant departments that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is expected to launch air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3 according to air - quality conditions, which may restrict the transportation of some vehicles [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6% [15]. - **Production**: In July 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total lead concentrate production was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In June 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore production was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total lead ore production was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days [21]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In July 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 18.2585 million pieces, and the net export weight of batteries was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 3.1% [41]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries of dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days [44]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a surplus of 0 tons [62]. - **Overseas Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [65]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton [70]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton [73]. - **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [76]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead maintained a relatively high net short position. The net long position of investment funds in London Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [79].