南华铅周报 ——上下驱动不明显，震荡为主 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号：F03145451 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月25日 点评 【盘面回顾】本周铅价偏弱震荡，报收在16780元每吨。国内五地铅锭库存为7.1万吨；LME库存为27.3万 吨。 【产业表现】由于铅价震荡运行，期间废旧铅酸蓄电池价格下跌幅度有限，且多数冶炼企业最终结算价格仍 按照下跌前价格执行，再生铅企业亏损区间并无收窄；截至2025年8月22日，规模再生铅企业综合盈亏理论 值为-445元/吨，中小规模再生铅企业综合盈亏理论值为-665元/吨。 【核心逻辑】本周价铅价维持震荡运行，多空持续博弈。周五夜盘受大盘带动，向上突破，但是驱动力度不 足回落。供给端，原生铅冶炼厂生产受预期需求旺季影响，生产意愿较强。再生铅由于成本支撑因素，同时 原料废电瓶依旧较为稀缺，再生铅冶炼端仍处亏损状态，挺价出售，整体开工率低位维持稳定。需求端，本 周铅蓄电池开工率为71.64%，较上周有较大改善。国内库存维持震荡，LME库存维持高位。短期内，基本面 僵持，观望下游和宏观 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系（2025.08） 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看：截至 2025 年 8 月上旬，49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭（如无烟煤、焦炭 等）、中游农林（豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等）以及下游化工（硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等），表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征；下降品种则以黑 色金属（中板、角钢、热卷）、有色金属（铜、铝、锌等）、建材（水泥、 玻璃）、部分化工（PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素）和能源（液化气、天然气、油 品）为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大，整体价格承压。总体来看，价格 分化明显，上游能源与部分化工品景气回升，而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看：工业品同比整体仍在下行通道，但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正；有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼，硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%；而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位，市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...

| 铅锌日评20250822：区间整理 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/22 指标 单位 近期趋势 | 今值 | 变动 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | 16,675.00 | 0.45% | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 16,745.00 | 0.12% | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | -70.00 | 55.00 | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | -25.00 | -10.00 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | -38.38 -63.10 | 1.10 4.80 | | 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 | - | 15.00 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 铅 | -15.00 | - | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 | -20.00 | 10.00 | | 期货活跃合约成交量 手 | 28,843.00 | -25.41% | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 | 44,230.00 | -5.44% | | 成交持仓比 / 吨 LME库存 | 0.65 279,600.00 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250821：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/21 指标 单位 | | 变动 近期趋势 | 今值 | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | 16,600.00 | -0.45% | | | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | -0.59% | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | -125.00 | 25.00 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | -15.00 | 10.00 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 | -39.48 | 2.32 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 价差 | -67.90 | -1.60 | | | | | | | | | 沪铅 ...

Group 1: Metal Price and Change - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,770, down 330; SMM flat - water copper premium is 155, down 15 [1] - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,520, down 70; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0, up 20 [1] - Alumina (Shanxi) price is 3,220, down 5; Australian alumina FOB average price is 372 dollars, up 2 dollars [1] - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,600, down 75; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to current - month futures at 10:15 is - 95, up 35 [1] - Recycled refined lead average price is 16,625, down 50; refined - scrap price difference is - 25, down 25 [1] - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,170, down 30; SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to current - month futures at 10:15 is - 35, up 5 [1] - SMM 1 tin average price is 267,500, up 1300; SMM 1 tin premium to current - month futures at 10:15 is - 360, down 666 [1] - 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 255,500, up 1300; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan)/SMM 1 tin ratio is 95.51% [1] - 1 imported nickel average price is 120,050, down 775; 1 imported nickel premium to SHFE nickel contract average price is 350, unchanged [1] - 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122,100, down 725; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to SHFE nickel contract average price is 2400, up 50 [1] - Silicone 553 (Xinjiang) price is 9,500, down 200; 553 spot premium to current - month futures at 10:15 is 1240, up 175 [1] - 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,850; polysilicon dense material average price is 0; granular silicon average price is 0; N - type polysilicon material average price is 47 [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700, unchanged; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to current - month futures at 10:15 is 4640, up 7420 [1] - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 83,400; battery - industrial lithium carbonate price difference is 2300, unchanged [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Xiao Jing is the chief analyst, researching copper and tin, with从业资格证号 F3047773 and investment consulting number Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongxia is a senior analyst, researching aluminum, alumina and gold, with从业资格证号 F3062795 and investment consulting number Z0015311 [1] - Wu Jiang is a senior analyst, researching nickel and stainless steel, silver and lithium carbonate, with从业资格证号 F3085524 and investment consulting number Z0016394 [1] - Sun Fangfang is a middle - level analyst, researching aluminum and zinc, with从业资格证号 F03111330 and investment consulting number Z0018905 [1] - Zhang Xiurui is a middle - level analyst, researching industrial silicon, with从业资格证号 F03099436 and investment consulting number Z0021022 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows no significant contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Supported by tight raw materials and peak - season expectations, the short - term lead price is expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, considering the macro situation and the increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply during the off - season of demand, with continued inventory accumulation in the domestic market and a continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory providing some support, the short - term zinc price is also expected to move in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, while the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract rose 0.30% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,973.50 per ton, up 0.13%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.92%, and the open interest decreased by 2.80%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.40%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.17% [1]. - **Industry News**: Some small - scale secondary lead smelters in South China stopped production due to losses and stopped purchasing waste lead - acid batteries. They plan to resume production when the raw material inventory reaches around 5,000 tons. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44 per ton, and the open interest decreased by 522 to 159,114 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead smelters that had maintenance are gradually resuming production, with stable - to - increasing production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high waste battery prices, limited supply, and strong hoarding sentiment among recyclers, some smelters have reduced or stopped production, resulting in relatively low overall production. The demand side shows no significant improvement, with dealers mainly consuming inventory and producers producing based on sales [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% from the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 37.72%, and the open interest increased by 51.62%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory also remained unchanged. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,770 per ton, down 0.25%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.35% [1]. - **Industry News**: Peru's Romina zinc project has reached 50% completion and is expected to be officially put into production in Q2 2026. A zinc smelter in the northwest plans to continue its maintenance from September to October, with the expected impact to be made up in November - December. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $8.65 per ton, and the open interest increased by 3,010 to 193,998 contracts [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production of zinc is showing an upward trend. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventory, but due to concerns about future production cuts, some terminals have stockpiled goods, leading to a rebound in galvanizing production [1].

有色金属周报(铅) 供需僵持，铅价区间整理 2025年8月19日 宏源期货研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。当前国产矿报价相对稳定，但 | | | | | 富含金银的铅精矿及高银含量的银铅矿TC仍有下行压力； | | | | | 进口矿方面，TC再度下调，部分供应商TC报价在-100至 | | | | | 80美元/干吨，但实际成交价多集中在-60至-70美元/干吨 | | | | | 附近，炼厂采购更加倾向国产矿。 | | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：由于终端消费不佳，废电瓶回收量有限， | 原生铅开工逐步回升，再生铅供给 | | | | 废电瓶价格略有松动，但依旧坚挺。 | | | |  | 供给端：前期检修的原生铅炼厂有所恢复，开工回升；再 | 因环保、亏损等因素，开工偏弱， | | | | 生铅方面，受成本倒挂及原料限制因素影响，开工偏弱。 | 需求端传统旺季尚未兑现， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market has no obvious contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is unstable. The supply of zinc ore and ingots is increasing, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. However, the continuous decline of overseas LME zinc inventory provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.45%; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) was 1,971 dollars/ton, down 0.50% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 62,225 tons, up 0.71% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active lead futures contract was 30,595 lots, down 6.15%; the position was 49,496 lots, down 3.34% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Pre - maintenance smelters are gradually resuming production. For secondary lead, scrap lead - acid battery prices are likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion. Terminal demand has not improved significantly [1]. - **Industry News**: An East - China large secondary lead smelter plans to stop production for 1 month, expected to affect August secondary refined lead output. Dongying Xinsanyuan's 200,000 - ton lead - acid battery environmental utilization project has determined the winning bidder [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: On August 19, 2025, the SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the futures main contract closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) was 2,777 dollars/ton, down 0.70% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 32,538 tons, up 62.53% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the active zinc futures contract was 80,217 lots, down 3.61%; the position was 69,630 lots, down 8.80% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. In August, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising. Downstream demand is mainly consuming existing inventories, but some terminal demand has increased due to concerns about zinc price increases [1]. - **Industry News**: Indian Zinc (HZL) plans to build a zinc tailings re - processing plant in Rajasthan and expand its metal (zinc + lead) production capacity [1].

Group 1: Metal Prices and Changes - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,180 with a decrease of 255, and the SMM flat - water copper premium is 150 with a decrease of 10 [1] - The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,710 with no change, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium is 0 with a decrease of 10 [1] - The price of alumina (Shanxi) is 3,240 with no change, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 370 dollars with no change [1] - The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,700 with no change, and the premium of SMM 1 lead ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 60 with a decrease of 10 [1] - The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,725 with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is - 25 with no change [1] - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,450 with a decrease of 60, and the premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 45 with a decrease of 45 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 tin is 266,000 with a decrease of 3,500, and the premium of SMM 1 tin to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 700 with a decrease of 700 [1] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 254,000 with a decrease of 3,500, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.49% [1] - The average price of 1 imported nickel is 120,775 with a decrease of 1,925, and the average premium of 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 400 with no change [1] - The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 122,575 with a decrease of 1,825, and the average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2,200 with an increase of 100 [1] - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 (Xinjiang) plus 800 (with a regional discount of 200 for quality impurity removal) is 9,700 with a decrease of 100, and the premium of 553 spot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,090 with an increase of 45 [1] - The average price of 421 silicon (Kunming) is 9,950, the average price of polycrystalline silicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon material is 47 [1] - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 82,700 with an increase of 700, and the premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 2,820 with an increase of 1,180 [1] - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 80,400, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 with an increase of 50 [1] Group 2: Analysts Information - Xiao Jing is the chief analyst, researching copper and tin, with a qualification certificate number of F3047773 and an investment consulting number of Z0014087 [1] - Liu Dongxia is a senior analyst, researching aluminum, alumina, and gold, with a qualification certificate number of F3062795 and an investment consulting number of Z0015311 [1] - Wu Jiang is a senior analyst, researching nickel, stainless steel, silver, and lithium carbonate, with a qualification certificate number of F3085524 and an investment consulting number of Z0016394 [1] - Sun Fangfang is a mid - level analyst, researching aluminum and zinc, with a qualification certificate number of F03111330 and an investment consulting number of Z0018905 [1] - Zhang Xiurui is a mid - level analyst, researching industrial silicon, with a qualification certificate number of F03099436 and an investment consulting number of Z0021022 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, there is no obvious contradiction, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is fluctuating, the zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas LME zinc inventory is decreasing, providing some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,700 yuan/ton with 0.00% change, Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 16,850 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the basis is - 150 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 32,601 lots with a - 28.53% change, and the position is 51,207 lots with a - 0.32% change [1]. - LME inventory is 261,100 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 61,784 tons with 0.00% change [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 1,981 dollars/ton with a - 0.45% change, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51 with a 0.93% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.07%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 41%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, a 2.05 - percentage - point increase [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise and difficult to fall, but it has not had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Previously - shut - down smelters are gradually resuming production, and primary lead operations are rising steadily [1]. - For secondary lead, the price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise and difficult to fall, recyclers' supplies are limited, and stores are reluctant to sell due to bullish sentiment. Some smelters have cut or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion, with overall operations at a relatively low level and firm quotations, and a slight decline in operations [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,380 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% change, Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,505 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase, and the basis is - 125 yuan/ton with a - 85 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 83,222 lots with a 6.65% increase, and the position is 76,347 lots with a - 5.51% change [1]. - LME inventory is 76,325 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 20,020 tons with a 17.10% increase [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,796.5 dollars/ton with a - 1.62% change, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.05 with a 1.76% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.54%, a 1.19 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 47.61%, a 0.81 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.95%, a 1.27 - percentage - point increase [1]. - Last week, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 354,000 physical tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous week [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc ore processing fees are rising continuously. Last week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index rose to 90.3 dollars/dry ton. With continuous easing of raw materials, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising in August, cost - side support is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and production volume is showing an obvious upward trend [1]. - On the demand side, last week zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range, downstream enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory. The price of black metals showed a good trend, and some end - users stocked up due to concerns about future production cuts, driving an increase in galvanized operations [1].