1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead market is neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market stopped falling and stabilized this week, with inventory reduction and import impact coexisting, and the approaching off - season suppressing consumption. It is recommended to operate within a range, with SHFE lead focusing on the range of 16300 - 16850 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying and selling hedging operations at the upper and lower limits of the range [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On March 30, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.16/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16325 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 16400 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot remained unchanged at 16350 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16375 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9750 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9850 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10050 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On March 30, 2026, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16535 yuan/ton and closed at 16495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 50614 lots, a decrease of 6171 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 62160 lots, a decrease of 3956 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16535 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16415 yuan/ton. In the night session, the SHFE lead main contract opened at 16535 yuan/ton and closed at 16495 yuan/ton, a 0.12% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The intraday SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in closing deals, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for closing deals. The lead price continued to weaken, downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, making the spot market generally dull [2] Inventory - On March 30, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 283000 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

Key Recommendations - Yaxing Integration (603929.SH) is positioned as a leader in cleanroom engineering, which is critical for AI infrastructure development, with a significant increase in demand for cleanroom projects driven by the AI computing power boom [9][10] - The company has a strong relationship with its Taiwanese parent company, which has extensive experience in building advanced wafer fabs, allowing for resource sharing and collaboration in overseas markets [9] - The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing a rapid increase in orders and revenue, leading to a substantial improvement in profit margins for Yaxing Integration [9][11] Financial Performance - Yaxing Integration's net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 have been raised to 1.945 billion, 3.135 billion, and 4.138 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [11] - The expected earnings per share for the same period are projected to be 9.12, 14.69, and 19.39 yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 118%, 61%, and 32% respectively [11] - The company's reasonable valuation range is estimated to be between 222.90 and 251.97 yuan, suggesting a potential upside of 20%-35% from the current stock price [11] Industry Insights - The cleanroom sector is identified as a bottleneck in global AI infrastructure, with cleanrooms accounting for 10%-20% of total investment in AI computing power [9] - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to continue growing due to the ongoing expansion of the semiconductor industry and the increasing complexity of AI applications [10] - The report highlights that the capital expenditure cycle driven by AI is considered a "super cycle," with sustained investment expected through 2028 [10] Market Trends - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is cautious, with a net outflow of 355 billion yuan in the last week of March, reflecting a decline in investor confidence [16] - The consumer services sector, particularly tourism, is experiencing a resurgence as spring holidays approach, with significant increases in bookings and travel activity [21][20] - The media and internet sectors are also adapting to new trends, with the launch of Seedance 2.0 and a focus on AI-driven content creation [24][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][5][33] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 24.1 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.04 billion yuan, down 19.9% year-on-year [10] - The decline in net profit was primarily due to increased asset amortization and management expenses, which rose by 28.1% to 1.48 billion yuan in 2025 [10][12] - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 2.04 billion yuan, 2.59 billion yuan, and 3.15 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 97%, 27%, and 22% [4][30] Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.76 billion yuan, an increase of 59.1% [10] - The company’s lead and zinc concentrate production was 294,900 tons, a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year, while zinc product output rose by 8.16% to 524,800 tons [11] - The average price of zinc ingots is projected to be 23,000 yuan per ton for 2026-2028, with lead ingots at 17,000 yuan per ton and germanium at 15,000 yuan per kilogram [4][30] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic lead and zinc industry, possessing high-grade lead and zinc mines and a well-structured smelting capacity [4][30] - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion plans, supported by its shareholders, which are expected to enhance its market position over the next 2-3 years [4][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a complex situation. The increase in purchases by battery enterprises and the inflow of imported lead ingots have an impact on the market. Although the spot market gets short - term support from downstream battery enterprises' low - price stockpiling and the low operating rate of secondary smelting enterprises, the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. Also, the previous high oil prices have put pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector, and there is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.57% to 16,553 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,100 lots. The LME Lead 3S rose 6.5 to 1,907.5 dollars/ton, with a total position of 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,325 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap lead. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 114,000 tons, the secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92% [11]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates and lead waste has increased. The primary smelting operating rate is stable, and the secondary smelting operating rate has recovered. The factory inventories of primary and secondary lead ingots and the social inventory of lead ingots have all declined. The spot market gets short - term support, but the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. There is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - Import Data: In February 2026, the net import of lead concentrates was 128,500 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.4% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 252,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.8%. The net import of silver concentrates in February 2026 was 148,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 17.4%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 328,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.3% [15]. - Production Data: In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. The net import of lead - containing ores in February 2026 was 136,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 282,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.3% [17]. - Total Supply: In February 2026, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 226,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of - 17.2%. From January to February, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 499,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In January 2026, the overseas lead ore production was 242,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.74% and a month - on - month change of - 11.97% [19]. - Inventory and TC: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton, with TC stabilizing [21][23]. - Smelting: The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In February 2026, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The waste lead inventory at the secondary end was 114,000 tons. The secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. In February 2026, China's secondary lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - Trade and Total Supply: In February 2026, the net export of lead ingots was - 36,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2857.0% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to February, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 74,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 540.7%. In February 2026, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 537,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.7% and a month - on - month change of - 28.0%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 1,283,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 17.1% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92%. In February 2026, the apparent demand for lead ingots in China was 474,400 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.6% and a month - on - month change of - 31.2%. From January to February, the cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 1,164,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.5% [38]. - Battery Exports: In February 2026, the net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 1,429,540 units, the net export of other batteries was 956,020 units, and the net export of starting batteries was 473,520 units, a year - on - year change of 16.4% and a month - on - month change of - 24.8%. From January to February, the total net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 3,330,960 units, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.9% [41]. - Inventory: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production drags down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of express delivery and take - out delivery scenarios drives the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of traditional vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increase in the number of communication base - stations and 5G base - stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In February 2026, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 62,900 tons. From January to February, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 107,000 tons [62]. - Overseas Balance: In January 2026, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of 64,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [70]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton [73]. - Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [76]. - Position: The net short position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic mine supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have a low willingness to purchase high-silver mines. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, supported by the demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract ranges from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$36.18/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,325 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,775 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,505 yuan/ton and closed at 16,460 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,200 lots, a change of -381 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 75,091 lots, a change of -4,034 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,570 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,385 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,390 yuan/ton and closed at 16,365 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 120 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 or 2605 lead contracts for ex-factory sales, and the prices with current-month invoices were relatively high. In Hunan, smelters and traders maintained premium sales, and the scattered orders were sold at a premium of 30 - 60 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales, with some rigid demand transactions. In the Tianjin market, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 lead contract for self-pickup transactions. The lead price continued the slight upward trend, and downstream battery enterprises made rigid purchases. The regional transactions in the spot market were acceptable [2] Inventory - On March 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, a change of -5,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 27, the LME lead inventory was 283,100 tons, a change of -50 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is "Neutral" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak overseas and stable domestic, with a game between supply and demand. Overseas lead prices are dragged down by geopolitical factors, while domestic lead prices decline with limited amplitude. The increasing losses of secondary lead and the depletion of primary lead factory inventories provide phased support. There is a co - existence of high - pressure social inventory and downstream bargain - hunting replenishment, and the opening of the import window brings an expectation of increased supply. Terminal demand is structurally differentiated. Looking ahead to next week, lead prices may fall and then rise, and downstream enterprises will maintain bargain - hunting and rigid - demand procurement. Investors should pay attention to the pace of social inventory depletion and the actual arrival of imported lead and operate cautiously [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 23, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.51 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan per ton to 0.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,350 yuan per ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,275 yuan per ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 9,800 yuan per ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan per ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 25 yuan per ton to 10,100 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On March 23, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,360 yuan per ton and closed at 16,395 yuan per ton, up 105 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 63,444 lots, a decrease of 13,162 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 89,207 lots, a decrease of 3,934 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 16,500 yuan per ton and a minimum of 16,320 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,495 yuan per ton and closed at 16,435 yuan per ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 23, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 23, the LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment rating is "Neutral". It is recommended to sell call options. The expected operating range of lead prices within the week is 1,6200 - 16,800 yuan per ton, and enterprises can carry out corresponding buying and selling hedging operations based on this range [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of lead is cautiously bullish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of Shanghai lead is oscillating weakly. The supply side shows the resumption of production of primary lead, production cuts due to losses in secondary lead, and an increase in the arrival of imported lead. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries has rebounded, but the recovery of terminal consumption is weak, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import impacts are suppressing lead prices, but the cost support of secondary lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of a price stop - fall. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On March 18, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$45.31 per ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,550 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium and discount changed by 0 yuan per ton to -15.00 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,600 yuan per ton. The SMM Henan lead spot changed by 125 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium and discount changed by 100 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan per ton to -25 yuan per ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,875 yuan per ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 9,975 yuan per ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan per ton to 10,200 yuan per ton. [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On March 18, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,635 yuan per ton and closed at 16,645 yuan per ton, a change of 45 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 54,361 lots, a change of -13,486 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 40,136 lots, a change of -11,026 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,785 yuan per ton and the lowest point reaching 16,595 yuan per ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,590 yuan per ton and closed at 16,585 yuan per ton, a 0.39% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price fell by 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day. The Shanghai lead futures oscillated weakly during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in trading, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan per ton to the SHFE 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan per ton to the SMM 1 lead average price. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor. The overall spot market was sluggish. [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On March 18, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 78,000 tons, a change of 1,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 18, the LME lead inventory was 284,375 tons, with no change compared with the previous trading day. [3] 3.2 Strategy - In terms of absolute price, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. Traders can buy on dips in the range below 16,500 yuan per ton and conduct sell - hedging close to 16,850 yuan per ton. However, if it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is collectively de - stocking in the near future, it is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic outlook is negative, and base metals are under pressure to fluctuate. The short - term high - oil - price environment leads to a negative macro outlook, and base metals are generally under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply issues, and the medium - term focus is on the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook Copper - **View**: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, which are expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 180 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 60.02 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day. In February this year, the US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year. - **Logic**: The increase in energy prices and the rise of the US dollar index due to the Iran conflict put pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down [5]. Alumina - **View**: The price of alumina strengthens in the short term and is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2733.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 405450 tons, an increase of 3611 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the supply - demand balance has improved but is still slightly in surplus. The Middle East issue affects the demand for alumina, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. The recent mine - end disturbances strengthen the price [6]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply disturbances, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot premium was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 134.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US economic data shows a structural divide, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict is uncertain. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the conflict, and the Indonesian supply is restricted. The demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is still accumulating. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [7][8]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the price of ADC12 was 24600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. The supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the cost support is strengthened [9][10][13]. Zinc - **View**: The US - Iran war has not eased, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate downward. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, and the inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 23.62 million tons, an increase of 0.51 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US - Iran conflict and rising oil prices lead to concerns about economic slowdown and a weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc ore is increasing, and the domestic supply pressure is rising. The demand is in the peak season but the terminal orders are limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward trend [11][12]. Lead - **View**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound, expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9925 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 lead ingots was 16400 - 16500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16450 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots was 8.01 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The spot discount is expanding, and the profit of secondary lead smelting is improving, leading to an increase in production. The demand is in the traditional peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory may still accumulate, but the cost support is strong [13][14]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57247 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared to the previous day, and the LME nickel inventory was 283740 tons, a decrease of 174 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's balance expectation. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [14][15]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 53962 tons, an increase of 1188 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the strong price of nickel iron. The production in February decreased due to the Spring Festival, but is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [17][18]. Tin - **View**: The spot trading is dull, and tin prices fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 60 tons to 8715 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 322 tons to 11673 tons. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is expected to increase as the Wa State restarts production and Indonesia raises its production target. The demand in the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, but the short - term price is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation [18]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: On March 17, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2591.86, a decrease of 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, a decrease of 0.58%; the industrial product index was 2565.21, a decrease of 0.51%. - **Special Index - Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [144][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently under pressure, with low recycling start - up rates and significant spot pressure. The lead price may decline further due to insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions. The subsequent situation of the recovery of recycling smelter start - up rates needs to be observed [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.30% to 16,586 yuan/ton last Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 141,800 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 4.5 to 1,933 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 173,000 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and recycled refined lead is 16,425 yuan/ton, with a flat refined - scrap price difference. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries is 9,925 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton. The overseas structure shows that the LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton. The cross - market structure shows that the ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons, the recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68% [11]. - **Market Outlook**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates has slightly declined, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of primary smelting has回调 due to the silver price, the primary lead start - up rate is gradually recovering, and the primary factory inventory is declining. The visible inventory of lead waste continues to decline, the profit of recycled lead smelting is under great pressure, the start - up rate of recycled lead smelters has limited recovery, and the recycled factory inventory is declining. The start - up rate of downstream battery enterprises has recovered, but procurement has not improved. The inventory of distributors in February has been well reduced, and the pressure on finished product inventory has been relieved. Currently, the lead ingot import window is wide open, the export of lead - acid batteries has decreased, and the overseas surplus of deliverable inventory flowing into the domestic market has a suppressing effect. Although the inventory reduction of battery finished products has improved, battery enterprises still have not carried out large - scale spot purchases. Insufficient domestic demand for lead ingots and an increase in the concentration of short - selling positions may lead to a further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - **Import and Production Data**: In December 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 149,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 24.63% and a month - on - month change of 35.87%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,425,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.11%. In December 2025, the net import of silver concentrates was 239,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 89.27% and a month - on - month change of 31.21%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,931,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.6%. In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. In December 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 185,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 51.34% and a month - on - month change of 33.42%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,627,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.39% [15][17]. - **Total Supply and Overseas Production**: In December 2025, China's total supply of lead concentrates was 311,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 27.78% and a month - on - month change of 13.11%. From January to December, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 3,285,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.07%. In December 2025, the overseas lead ore production was 275,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.15% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to December, the total production of lead ore was 2,958,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.16% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory is 39,000 tons, and the factory inventory is 468,000 tons, equivalent to 31.4 days. The lead concentrate import TC is - 145 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC is 250 yuan/metal ton, and the lead concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Production**: The primary start - up rate is 61.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory is 29,000 tons. In February 2025, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: At the recycling end, the lead waste inventory is 102,000 tons. The recycling start - up rate is 23.00%, and the recycled ingot factory inventory is 19,000 tons. In February 2025, China's recycled lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - **Import and Total Supply**: In December 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 28,600 tons, a year - on - year change of 111.23% and a month - on - month change of 25.65%. From January to December, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 146,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 22.13%. In December 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 715,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.04% and a month - on - month change of - 1.09%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,956,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.72% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate is 71.68%. In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 719,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.09% and a month - on - month change of - 0.44%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,969,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.27% [38]. - **Battery Export**: In December 2025, the net export quantity of lead - containing batteries was 1,664,900 units, a year - on - year change of - 35.22% and a month - on - month change of 8.81%. From January to December, the total net export of batteries was 213 million units, and the cumulative net export year - on - year change was - 13.06% [41]. - **Inventory Changes**: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in distributors decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly drags down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drives the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In December 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 4,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 12,400 tons [61]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 30,200 tons. From January to November, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 171,400 tons [64]. 3.6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory is 67,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on March 12 was 77,700 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from March 9. The domestic primary basis is - 75 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - consecutive contract is - 20 yuan/ton [69]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory is 284,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 4,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis is - 47.22 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 137.1 US dollars/ton [72]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange rate Shanghai - London ratio is 1.246, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots is 511.55 yuan/ton [75]. - **Position Changes**: The net short position of LME lead investment funds has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has decreased [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow inventory reduction. The losses in recycled lead production lead to a lower - than - expected resumption of production, which supports the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, the inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 11, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.77/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -40.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -25 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton. The price of scrap white shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of scrap black shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,605 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,968 lots, a change of -5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 61,083 lots, a change of 2,926 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,735 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,585 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,655 yuan/ton and closed at 16,655 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2]. Inventory - On March 11, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 11, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, with a change of 0 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Absolute price: The lead price is expected to run in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations according to this range [3]. - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]