| 铅锌日评20251010：震荡整理 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/10 指标 单位 今值 | | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 16,800.00 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | | 0.00% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,115.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | | 1.03% | | | | 元/吨 -315.00 沪铅基差 | | | | | -175.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -10.00 | | | | | -10.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -29.64 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -68.30 | | | | | 7.66 5.90 | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -15.00 | 价差 | | | | 500.00 | | | | 元/吨 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 -20.00 | | | | | 25.00 | | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 ...

| | | | 有色金属现货升贴7 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货有色金属团队 | | | | 2025/9/30 | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM平水铜升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铜 | 83240 | 1030 | -30 | 10 | | SMM A00铝-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 铝 | 20720 | 30 | -20 | -10 | | 氧化铝(山西) | | 涨跌 | 澳洲氧化铝FOB-平均价 ( 美元 ) | 涨跌(美元) | | 2930 | | -5 | 323 | 0 | | SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 | | 涨跌 | SMM 1#铅锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 16800 | | 0 | -125 | -35 | | 铝 | 再生精铅-平均价 | 再生铅均价-涨跌 | 精废价差 | 涨跌 | | 16775 | | 0 | 25 | 0 | | 锌 | SMM 0#锌锭-平均价 | 涨跌 | SMM 0#锌锭对当月期货10:15升贴水 | 涨跌 | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-30 市场成交转淡 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-29，LME铅现货升水为-41.63美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至16800 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元 /吨至16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至16825元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-113元/吨至16850元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至10000元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-09-29，沪铅主力合约开于17065元/吨，收于16855元/吨，较前一交易日变化-255元/吨，全天交易 日成交76219手，较前一交易日变化26944手，全天交易日持仓48797手，手较前一交易日变化-11865手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到17110元/吨，最低 ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Core Insights - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,925 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, indicating a price differential of 75 CNY/ton for scrap lead-acid batteries priced at 9,975 CNY/ton [1] - On September 29, the lead futures market closed at 16,855 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.38%, and trading volume reached 76,219 lots [2] - The LME reported a registered lead warehouse stock of 197,275 tons, with a decrease of 600 tons in canceled warrants, totaling 21,550 tons [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in Q4, with some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan experiencing slight production declines due to insufficient raw material inventories [4] - The operating rate of recycled lead has been declining for six consecutive weeks, leading to weakened demand for scrap lead-acid batteries, which have seen a slight price stabilization after a drop [4] - The implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles in September has improved order conditions for some downstream companies, alongside stable demand in the energy storage battery market, suggesting a potential reduction in lead inventory [4] Transportation and Cost Factors - In Inner Mongolia, transportation vehicles are becoming tight due to the maturity of agricultural products, resulting in an increase in transportation costs by approximately 80 CNY/ton [3]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/9/26 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 0.00% 16,950.00 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.15% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -140.00 -25.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - -10.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -36.80 3.28 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -79.80 -2.50 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -30.00 5.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - -25.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -10.00 -25.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 46,256.00 6.76% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 62,847.00 2.91% 成交持仓比 / 0.74 3.74% LME库存 吨 0.00% 219,550.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 35,584.00 -6.75% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,009.00 0.32% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.51 -0.18% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots and the closing price of the main lead futures contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead is temporarily tightened, with no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, rising processing fees, and reduced production in the secondary lead sector. Demand from the terminal market is weak, and it is expected that the lead price will remain in high - level consolidation in the short term, with limited upside potential [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased slightly, while the closing price of the main zinc futures contract increased slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, with sufficient raw material reserves in smelters and improved production enthusiasm. Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the expected interest rate cut support the zinc price, and the downside space of Shanghai zinc is expected to be limited in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.13% to 43,329 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.49% to 61,071 lots; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,002.50 dollars/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - **Supply**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and the start - up rate fluctuates slightly. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw material and loss factors, the start - up rate is less than 30%, and the supply is temporarily tightened [1]. - **Demand**: The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and dealers mainly digest inventory. Production enterprises produce according to sales. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises [1]. - **News**: A small secondary lead smelter in South China has resumed production, mainly for long - term order delivery. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.13 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 953 lots to 160,598 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,860 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 12.45% to 109,733 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.07% to 141,867 lots; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,922.50 dollars/ton, up 1.14% [1]. - **Supply**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - **Demand**: Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather, causing some enterprises in South China to shut down for about two days. The export window for zinc ingots may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **News**: The zinc output of Antamina Mine is expected to increase by 67% this year to 450,000 tons, offsetting a 12% decrease in copper output. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 43.16 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [1]. - **Zinc**: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].

宏观方面，短期美联储降息路径较为明确，考虑到前期市场已对降息充分计价，后续影响相对有限。 原生铅方面，原料供应偏紧已导致部分地区炼厂减产，但副产品价格较高导致炼厂减产力度有限，开工 率依旧处于近年同期高位，预计原生铅产量小幅下降。再生铅方面，随着生产利润修复和进口原料数量 增加，企业复产预期较强，从原料库存和排产计划来看，预计复产时间在10月上旬。 看向需求端，一方面，近期电动自行车电池需求增加，带动铅蓄电池企业开工率回升，铅锭需求同步增 长。另一方面，今年下半年电动汽车销售增速放缓，叠加汽车蓄电池替换需求有限，汽车行业需求表现 不佳。此外，汽车行业"抢出口"结束，四季度蓄电池出口下降的趋势较为明显。综合来看，汽车蓄电池 及出口对需求形成拖累，铅锭需求难以大幅增长，考虑到铅蓄电池企业备库节奏，预计下游采购需求在 国庆假期后有所转弱。 近期，受下游需求疲软和原料供应紧张影响，再生铅炼厂大规模减产，铅锭供应大幅收缩，但需求持续 增长，沪铅价格走势偏强。外盘方面，9月初美联储降息预期升温带动伦铅价格上涨。随着美联储如期 降息和美联储主席鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，伦铅价格回吐部分涨幅。 看向供应端，海外矿山方面，Endea ...

宏观方面，短期美联储降息路径较为明确，考虑到前期市场已对降息充分计价，后续影响相对有限。 近期，受下游需求疲软和原料供应紧张影响，再生铅炼厂大规模减产，铅锭供应大幅收缩，但需求持续增长，沪铅价格走势偏强。外盘方 面，9月初美联储降息预期升温带动伦铅价格上涨。随着美联储如期降息和美联储主席鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，伦铅价格回吐部分涨幅。 综上所述，10月之前铅锭供需维持紧平衡格局，铅价下方支撑较强。随着后续再生铅企业陆续复产，而需求缺乏进一步增长的空间，铅锭供 需转向宽松，铅价或面临回调风险。（作者单位：国元期货） 看向供应端，海外矿山方面，Endeavor矿山投产后发运量持续增长，Vedanta-Zinc India矿山检修结束、Aripuan矿山复工也将贡献部分供应增 量，海外供应或小幅增加。国内方面，虽然矿山生产利润较高，但开工率同样较高，进一步增产的空间相对有限，预计短期国内矿石产量保 持高位。综合来看，矿石供应增长空间有限，冶炼厂原料库存显著下滑，加工费持续下调，当前已有冶炼厂提前开始冬储备货，预计短期矿 石供需维持紧平衡。 原生铅方面，原料供应偏紧已导致部分地区炼厂减产，但副产品价格较高导致炼厂减产力度有 ...

Supply Side - The recent reduction in production at recycling lead smelters due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply has led to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, while demand continues to grow [1] - Overseas supply may see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments, the end of maintenance at Vedanta-Zinc India, and the resumption of operations at the Aripuan? mine [1] - Domestic raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees continue to decrease, indicating that smelting plants are beginning to stockpile for winter [1] Demand Side - Increased demand for lead-acid batteries from electric bicycle manufacturers has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies, which in turn boosts lead ingot demand [2] - However, the automotive sector is experiencing a slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting lead ingot demand [2] - The trend of declining exports of lead-acid batteries is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter, further constraining demand [2] Macro Perspective - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact [3] - Lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance until October, providing strong support for lead prices [3] - As recycling lead enterprises gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply-demand balance may shift towards surplus, posing a risk of price correction [3]