Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market will maintain high-level fluctuations in the short term. The supply side is affected by import volume, suppressing spot premiums, while the long-term raw material procurement of smelters supports the price bottom. The demand side is weakly supported by grid investment and seasonal start - up, but photovoltaic and construction demand remains weak. The weak US employment data increases the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical risks and US dollar index fluctuations limit the upside space [6]. - The decline in PPI data last night further boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. During the quiet period, trading based on data may increase, but the upside pressure is still obvious [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On September 10, 2025, the SHFE main contract price remained flat at 79,740 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price slightly increased to 9,916.5 dollars/ton, continuing narrow - range fluctuations. The spot market basis weakened across the board. The premium of premium copper narrowed to 100 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper dropped to 20 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper widened to - 50 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 discount slightly narrowed to - 78.02 dollars/ton but remained deeply discounted [1]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: LME copper positions decreased by 1,245 lots to 288,791 lots. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.14% month - on - month to 155,050 tons, with two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. The intraday trading of Shanghai copper showed a trend of increasing price with decreasing positions, and funds took profits after the price soared. Short - term bullish sentiment was cautious [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Imported copper continued to arrive at ports, and domestic smelting output was stable, resulting in loose spot supply. Traders' low - price selling led to a rapid decline in premiums, and the import loss widened to 250 yuan/ton. LME inventory continued to increase to 19,126 tons, reaching a two - month high. Weak demand in Europe and the United States led to the manifestation of hidden inventory [3]. - **Demand Side**: In August, the copper terminal PMI was still below the boom - bust line. The power sector provided a bottom - support due to the high - prosperity of State Grid investment, but the seasonal recovery in the construction sector was limited, and the significant decline in photovoltaic installations weakened the demand elasticity. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, and the spot procurement sentiment index was only 3.12, with the fear of high prices still existing [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The global visible inventory was divided. The SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, while the LME and COMEX inventories overseas continued to accumulate. The inter - month spread converged to 20 yuan/ton [5]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper market will maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term. The supply side is affected by import volume, suppressing spot premiums, while the long - term raw material procurement of smelters supports the price bottom. The demand side is weakly supported by grid investment and seasonal start - up, but photovoltaic and construction demand remains weak. The weak US employment data increases the expectation of interest rate cuts, but geopolitical risks and US dollar index fluctuations limit the upside space. The decline in PPI data last night further boosts the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. During the quiet period, trading based on data may increase, but the upside pressure is still obvious [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Spot (Premium/Discount)**: The price of SMM:1 copper premium copper decreased to 79,880 yuan/ton, and the premium narrowed from 125 yuan/ton on September 9 to 100 yuan/ton; the premium of flat - water copper dropped from 40 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the discount of wet - process copper widened from - 40 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount was - 78 dollars/ton [8]. - **Price**: The SHFE price remained at 79,740 yuan/ton, and the LME price increased to 9,917 dollars/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons, a 0.24% increase; the SHFE inventory decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons, a 0.14% decrease; the COMEX inventory was 307,696 short tons [8]. 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China PMI, US employment situation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][13][20]