Group 1 - Recent divergence in copper prices between the US and other markets has attracted market attention, with experts suggesting a high probability of a 50% tariff on US copper imports [1][3] - On July 8, COMEX copper futures surged nearly 10%, while other markets like SHFE and LME showed little movement, with SHFE copper futures even declining by 1.36% on July 9 [2][3] - Year-to-date, COMEX copper futures have increased by over 30%, significantly outperforming LME and SHFE copper futures, which have only seen around 10% and lower increases, respectively [2][3] Group 2 - The proposed 50% tariff by President Trump aims to shift copper production back to the US, with implementation expected by late July or August [3] - The significant increase in tariff expectations has widened the price gap between COMEX and LME copper, exceeding $2,500 per ton as of July 9 [3] - If the tariff is implemented, it may reduce the "siphoning effect" on global copper inventories, alleviating supply pressure in non-US regions [3] Group 3 - The rise in copper prices has impacted listed companies, with firms like Zhaolong Interconnect indicating that their product pricing is directly linked to market copper prices [4] - Chujiang New Material has implemented hedging strategies to manage raw material exposure due to copper price fluctuations [4] - Wolong Nuclear Materials has noted that while copper price increases are monitored, their pricing strategies and procurement methods mitigate the impact on profitability [4] Group 4 - The supply side of copper remains under pressure, with declining processing fees and tight raw material supplies [5][6] - As the consumption off-season approaches, downstream replenishment intentions are weakening, leading to a decrease in copper rod and cable production rates [6] - The overall upward momentum for copper prices is being suppressed by rising inventories and declining spot premiums [6] Group 5 - The likelihood of the 50% tariff being implemented is high, which may further widen the price gap between COMEX and LME copper [6] - Short-term, the tariff risk is expected to suppress LME and SHFE prices, compounded by the traditional consumption off-season [6] - In the medium term, while global economic uncertainties may weaken copper demand, supply constraints are expected to provide price support, leading to a primarily oscillating price trend [6]