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铜周报:美联储主席暗示可能下月降息,沪铜或震荡偏强运行-20250825
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:34
研究报告 铜周报 美联储主席暗示可能下月降息,沪铜或震荡偏强运行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | 有色板块研究员:刘江 | | | | | 期货从业资格证号:F0305841 | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号:Z0016251 | | | | | 电话:0931-8582647 | | | | | 邮箱:451591573@qq.com | | | | | 报告日期:2025 年 8 | 月 | 25 | 日星期一 | 摘要: 【基本面分析】 报告日期:2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 国家统计局数据显示,7 月份,规模以上工业增加值同比实 际增长 5.7%(增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率)。从 环比看,7 月份,规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.38%。1—7 月份,规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.3%。美国联邦储备委员会 主席鲍威尔 22 日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会 上发表讲话,暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险,但美联储仍 ...
冠通研究:等待新的驱动
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 10:40
等待新的驱动 制作日期:2025 年 8 月 19 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开低走承压下行。杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会在本周四举行,市场博弈美 联储降息情况,预计鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔年会上将谨慎决策、避免大幅宽松。俄乌局势 好转,市场避险情绪降温。供给方面,5 月精炼铜产量同比增长 14.0%,精铜矿港口库存 去化至近五年低位水平,冶炼厂 TC/RC 费用继续企稳回升,长协订单有盈利,现货订单 依然亏损,硫酸价目前处于历史同期高位水平,支撑冶炼厂利润,目前 8 月仅 1 家冶炼 厂有检修计划,且华东新投产的冶炼厂开始生产,预计精铜产量波动幅度不大,冶炼厂 三季度后期或因矿端资源偏紧及硫酸胀库而减产停产。需求方面,下游需求表现为不温 不火,新增订单有增加,市场成交量环比减少,房地产依然拖累下游需求,1-7 月房地 产开发投资同比下降 12%,新建商品房销售面积同比下降 4%。但电网及新能源带来需求 韧性。上期所库存本周表现为累库,反映了短期内需求疲软,供需宽松的格局。综合来 看,市场博弈美联储降息预期,基本面情况暂无较大改变,市场等待新的驱动,下方 78000 元/吨支撑,关注周四杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会。 投资有 ...
下游需求支撑不足
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:46
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].
伦铜价格窄幅震荡 8月14日LME铜库存减少25吨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-15 03:09
Group 1 - LME copper futures prices showed narrow fluctuations, opening at $9777.5 per ton and currently at $9776.5 per ton, with a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - On August 14, LME copper futures had an opening price of $9795.0, a highest price of $9836.5, a lowest price of $9714.0, and a closing price of $9768.5, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% [1] - The current ratio of electrolytic copper spot prices between Shanghai and London is 8.1, indicating a profit/loss of 44.55 yuan per ton for imports, compared to a loss of 75.3 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - The El Teniente copper smelter of Codelco, the Chilean state-owned copper company, has resumed operations [1] - As of August 14, LME registered copper warrants totaled 144,800 tons, with canceled warrants at 11,050 tons, a decrease of 500 tons; total copper inventory stands at 155,850 tons, down by 25 tons [1]
冠通研究:盘面震荡偏强
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 11:30
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].
伦铜价格偏强震荡 8月6日LME铜库存增加2275吨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-07 03:09
Group 1 - LME copper futures prices showed a slight increase, opening at $9,665 per ton and currently trading at $9,689 per ton, with a peak of $9,700 per ton and a low of $9,665 per ton, reflecting a 0.16% increase [1] - On August 6, LME copper futures opened at $9,625 per ton, reached a high of $9,708 per ton, and closed at $9,681 per ton, marking a 0.50% increase [2] - The current spot price of electrolytic copper in Shanghai-London ratio is 8.11, with an import loss of -141.8 yuan per ton, improving from a previous loss of -262.02 yuan per ton [2] Group 2 - As of August 6, LME registered copper warrants totaled 145,200 tons, with canceled warrants at 10,925 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons; total copper inventory increased by 2,275 tons to 156,125 tons [2] - A survey of 74 domestic recycled copper rod production enterprises, covering a capacity of 8.19 million tons, indicated that the actual production of recycled copper rods in July 2025 was 216,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.74% [2] - The capacity utilization rate for domestic recycled copper rods in July 2025 was 26.73%, down 5.29% month-on-month and 3.44% year-on-year [2]
伦铜价格继续上涨 8月4日LME铜库存减少2175吨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-05 03:08
Group 1 - LME copper futures prices continued to rise, opening at $9697.5 per ton and currently at $9715.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.07% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $9720 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $9695 per ton [1] - On August 4, LME copper futures had an opening price of $9659.5, a highest price of $9738.0, a lowest price of $9630.0, and a closing price of $9708.0, reflecting a 0.69% increase [1] Group 2 - On August 4, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 8.11, with an import loss of -148.82 yuan per ton, improving from -249.88 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts of 20,348 tons on August 4, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 127,500 tons, with 12,075 tons canceled, a reduction of 2,200 tons; total copper inventory was 139,575 tons, down by 2,175 tons [1]
【广发宏观陈礼清】高风偏遇上减速带:大类资产配置月度展望
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-08-03 23:50
Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].
铜月报:美国对铜加征关税落地,沪铜或震荡运行-20250801
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The US tariff increase on semi-finished copper products has limited direct impact on the Chinese copper industry, and it is expected to have a certain negative impact on the Shanghai copper price, but the overall impact is not significant [3][14][35] - The price of copper may mainly show a volatile trend due to various factors such as China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, and inventory [35][36][37] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In June, affected by the dissipation of the negative impact of tariff policies, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly volatile and weakening trend, with a price range of about 77,650 yuan/ton to 80,780 yuan/ton [7] - The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with an operating range of about 9,555 - 10,020 US dollars/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative products starting from August 1st, while copper input materials and copper scrap are not subject to relevant tariffs [11] - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Different types of enterprises had different profit changes, and there were also significant differences in profit changes among industries [15][16] - On July 30th local time in the US, the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, which was the fifth consecutive time to maintain the interest rate unchanged [3][35] 3. Supply Side - As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. As of July 25th, 2025, the refining fee of Chinese copper smelters was -4.26 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was -42.73 US dollars/kiloton [17] - As of July 31st, 2025, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 78,535 yuan/ton, the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper was -1,160 yuan/ton [23] 4. Demand Side - As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. In June 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [26] 5. Inventory Side - As of July 25th, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 11,133 tons from the previous week. As of July 30th, 2025, the LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 12.4%. The COMEX copper inventory increased by 2,517 tons from the previous trading day. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 500 tons from the previous week [31] 6. Outlook - The factors affecting copper price trends include China's economic policies, US policies, supply, demand, inventory, etc., with different degrees of influence [34] - Considering various factors, the copper price may mainly show a volatile trend [35][36][37]
美关税政策再调整引爆comex铜价,LME和SHFE以不变应万变
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the news on Shanghai copper is limited, and COMEX copper will move towards the price before the tariff increase [3] - In the short term, the spread between COMEX copper and LME and SHFE copper will still fluctuate, and the market needs 1 - 2 trading days to determine a reasonable spread range [7] - The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and its price trend depends on global macro - market policies and expected changes [7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Contents Tariff Policy and Copper Price Changes - Trump announced that starting this Friday, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on copper tubes, copper fittings, and other semi - finished copper products, and it will be extended to copper - intensive finished products such as cables and electrical components, but core upstream products like electrolytic copper are excluded [1] - Before the news, the US copper price was up to 28% higher than the London copper futures due to market expectations. After the news, the COMEX copper price in the US dropped by over 17%, and the spread with LME copper was quickly narrowed [1] Fed's Action and Copper Price - The slight decline in Shanghai copper price on Wednesday night was mainly due to the rise of the US dollar index, which was mostly caused by the Fed's actions. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July, with some members in favor of a rate cut. The description of economic activity was changed, and the market's expectation of a September rate cut was dampened [3] Reasons for COMEX Copper Price Drop - The cancellation of the US refined copper import tariff led to the expected decline in COMEX copper price. The US imports nearly half of its about 160 million tons of annual refined copper consumption due to insufficient smelting capacity. The characteristics of the copper smelting industry conflict with the goals of large US capital companies, which is also an obstacle to Trump's encouragement of manufacturing return [6] - Due to the long - term speculation on copper tariffs, the COMEX copper inventory has reached 250,000 tons, almost twice that of LME. After the tariff policy change, the large amount of copper in the US cannot be digested in the short term, resulting in a large decline in COMEX copper price [6] Future Outlook - The high copper inventory in the COMEX market may not flow out, and the quantity of imported copper in transit and in the fourth quarter in the US may be greatly affected [7] - Global tariff policies' impact on demand may cast a shadow over copper prices [7]