国庆中秋长假期间，国际金价大幅度上涨。10月7日(北京时间)，受美元疲软、地缘争端等因素影响， COMEX黄金期货日内最高报价强势突破4000美元/盎司；10月8日，伦敦金跟随突破4000美元/盎司。黄 金跻身全球最赚钱的大类资产之一。 高盛认为，近期金价上涨主要反映了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金：快速增长的西方ETF(交易型开放式 指数基金)仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购买以及投机仓位的提升。高盛最新报告指出，新兴市场央行 将持续通过增持黄金实现外汇储备的结构性多元化，预计2025年和2026年新兴市场央行黄金净购买量将 分别平均达到80吨和70吨。基于这一趋势，高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测从4300美元/盎司上调至 4900美元/盎司。 回顾过去30多年的金融市场主要资产走势，就会发现一个"有趣"现象——1990年以来，截至今年9月 底，黄金价格累计涨幅(866.87%)大幅跑赢WTI原油期货(172.74%)、LME铜期货(336.94%)与CBOT大豆 期货(-21.69%)。若将投资时间进一步拉长至1970年代布雷顿森林体系(二战后以美元为中心的国际货币 体系)瓦解起，截至今年9月底，黄金价格累 ...

金价终于破4000美元/盎司了！ 10月7日（北京时间），受美元疲软、地缘争端等因素影响，COMEX黄金期货日内最高报价强势突破4000美元/盎司；10 月8日，伦敦金跟随突破4000美元/盎司。黄金跻身全球最赚钱的大类资产之一。 高盛认为，近期金价上涨主要反映了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金：快速增长的西方ETF仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购 买以及投机仓位的提升。 高盛最新报告指出，新兴市场央行将持续通过增持黄金实现外汇储备的结构性多元化，预计2025年和2026年新兴市场央 行黄金净购买量将分别平均达到80吨和70吨。基于这一趋势，高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测从4300美元/盎司上调至 4900美元/盎司。 回顾过去三十多年的金融市场主要资产走势，就会发现一个"有趣"且值得回味的现象——1990年以来，截至今年9月底， 黄金价格累计涨幅（866.87%）大幅跑赢WTI原油期货（172.74%）、LME铜期货（336.94%）与CBOT大豆期货 （-21.69%）。 若将投资时间进一步拉长至1970年代布雷顿森林体系瓦解起，截至今年9月底，黄金价格累计涨幅更是达到10204%，大 幅跑赢同期美元指数（- ...

10月7日（北京时间），受美元疲软、地缘争端等因素影响，COMEX黄金期货日内最高报价强势突破4000美元/盎司；10 月8日，伦敦金跟随突破4000美元/盎司。黄金跻身全球最赚钱的大类资产之一。 高盛认为，近期金价上涨主要反映了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金：快速增长的西方ETF仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购 买以及投机仓位的提升。 每经记者｜宋钦章 每经编辑｜董兴生 金价终于破4000美元/盎司了！ 高盛最新报告指出，新兴市场央行将持续通过增持黄金实现外汇储备的结构性多元化，预计2025年和2026年新兴市场央 行黄金净购买量将分别平均达到80吨和70吨。基于这一趋势，高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测从4300美元/盎司上调至 4900美元/盎司。 回顾过去三十多年的金融市场主要资产走势，就会发现一个"有趣"且值得回味的现象——1990年以来，截至今年9月底， 黄金价格累计涨幅（866.87%）大幅跑赢WTI原油期货（172.74%）、LME铜期货（336.94%）与CBOT大豆期货 （-21.69%）。 若将投资时间进一步拉长至1970年代布雷顿森林体系瓦解起，截至今年9月底，黄金价格累计涨幅更是达到10 ...

北京时间9月30日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格高位震荡，今日开盘报10430.5美元/吨，现报每吨 10365美元/吨，跌幅0.61%，盘中最高触及10440美元/吨，最低下探10352.5美元/吨。 【铜市场消息速递】 更新时间： 9月29日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.02，进口盈亏：-564.17元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-675.54元/吨。 LME铜期货行情回顾： 9月29日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单134025吨。注销仓单9875吨，减少450吨。铜库存 143900吨，减少500吨。 9月29日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10237.0 10450.0 10213.0 10428.5 2.19% 9月29日，上期所铜期货仓单25603吨，环比上个交易日减少954吨。 ...

【冠通研究】 延续上涨 期货方面：沪铜高开高走，震荡偏强，尾盘于 82470 元/吨。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水-15 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 70 元/吨。2025 年 9 月 25 日，LME 官方价 10320 美元/吨，现货升贴水-8 美元/吨。 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 26 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，震荡偏强。美国 GDP 增速超预期叠加首申失业金人数下降，强 劲的数据增加了美联储未来降息路径的不确定性，市场对 10 月降息预期有所降温。截止 9 月 19 日，我国现货粗炼费（TC）-40.64 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.05 美分/磅，TC/RC 费 用保持弱稳。冶炼厂 9 月检修较多，目前中小冶炼厂盈利承压，后续精铜供应依然紧张 态势。8 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量为 117.15 万吨，环比减少 0.24%，同比上升 15.59%。受 政策影响 9 月废铜供应量将明显下降，预计 9 月电解铜产量将大幅下降。精炼铜进口方 面，8 月进口铜数量环比上月下降至 30.72 万吨，环比-2.73 万吨。需求端目前交易节前 补货逻辑，带动上期所库存近几日有所去化，综合来看，受美联 ...

Group 1 - LME copper futures prices experienced high volatility, opening at $10,300 per ton and currently at $10,302.5 per ton, with a decline of 0.17% [1] - The intraday trading range for copper futures included a high of $10,333.5 per ton and a low of $10,254 per ton [1] Group 2 - On September 24, LME copper futures opened at $9,980.0, reached a high of $10,364.0, a low of $9,927.5, and closed at $10,320.0, reflecting a 3.27% increase [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 8.03, with an import loss of -108.53 yuan per ton, compared to -78.71 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper futures warehouse receipts at 27,419 tons, a decrease of 308 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 133,000 tons, with 11,775 tons canceled, a reduction of 100 tons, and total copper inventory at 144,775 tons, down by 200 tons [2]

北京时间9月24日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格弱势震荡，今日开盘报9980美元/吨，现报每吨 9977.5美元/吨，跌幅0.16%，盘中最高触及9990.5美元/吨，最低下探9968.5美元/吨。 LME铜期货行情回顾： 9月23日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 9月23日，上期所铜期货仓单27727吨，环比上个交易日减少2166吨。 9月23日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单133100吨。注销仓单11875吨，减少600吨。铜库存 144975吨，减少400吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10015.0 10027.5 9955.5 9993.5 -0.08% 【铜市场消息速递】 9月23日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.02，进口盈亏：-78.71元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-94.79元/吨。 ...

北京时间9月23日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报10015美元/吨，现报每吨 9974美元/吨，涨幅0.28%，盘中最高触及10027.5美元/吨，最低下探9961.5美元/吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10001.0 10022.0 9950.5 10002.0 0.06% 9月22日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单132900吨。注销仓单12475吨，减少1925吨。铜库存 145375吨，减少2275吨。 更新时间： LME铜期货行情回顾： 9月22日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 【铜市场消息速递】 9月22日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.03，进口盈亏：-94.79元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：3.88元/吨。 9月22日国内市场电解铜现货库存14.84万吨，较15日降0.95万吨，较18日降0.82万吨；上海库存9.47万 吨，较15日降0.64万吨，较18日降0.5万吨；广东库存1.75万吨，较15日降0.58万吨，较18日降0.37万 吨；江苏库存2.97万吨，较15日增0.28万吨，较18日增0.05万吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are still tight with resilient demand. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is decreasing due to the improvement in peak - season demand and increased demand before the double festivals. The copper market is expected to show a strong - side oscillatory trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong - side oscillation during the day. The leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and Trump said the call was "very productive", with plans for a meeting during the APEC and a visit to China early next year. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar index has shifted upward. As of September 19, the spot TC was - 40.64 dollars per dry ton and RC was - 4.05 cents per pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, and small and medium - sized smelters are under profit pressure. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The SMM China electrolytic copper output in August was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from the previous month and a 15.59% increase year - on - year. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will significantly decline, and the electrolytic copper output in September is expected to drop sharply. The downstream demand has marginally improved, but the overall purchasing sentiment is cautious [1] Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, with a strong - side oscillation during the day, and the closing price was 80,160 yuan per ton. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 70 yuan per ton. On September 19, 2025, the LME official price was 9,982 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 78 dollars per ton [3] Supply Side - As of September 19, the latest data showed that the spot TC was - 40.64 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.05 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 29,900 tons, a decrease of 1,945 tons from the previous period. As of September 18, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 147,700 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 315,200 short tons, an increase of 2,364 short tons from the previous period [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend, with reduced price fluctuations and limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情复盘 - Last week, the main contract CU2510 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and weakening market, with prices ranging from around 79,505 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 81,530 yuan/ton [9]. - Last week, LME copper futures prices showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with contract prices running around 9,919 - 10,192 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2宏观面 - From January to August 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32,611.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year [4][16][52]. - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%. According to CME data, the probability of a 25 - bp rate cut by the Fed in October is 87.7%, and the probability in December is 80.9%. The expected number of rate cuts within the year is 2 [4][52]. 3.3现货分析 - As of September 19, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 79,970 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 80,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 80,000 yuan/ton, 79,970 yuan/ton, 80,130 yuan/ton, and 80,080 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - As of September 19, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained at around a premium of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [21]. 3.4供需情况 - As of August 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of September 12, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 41.42 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.16 cents/pound [28]. - As of August 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2219 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. As of August 2025, the monthly automobile output in China was 2.7524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [34]. 3.5库存情况 - As of September 19, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, an increase of 11,760 tons from the previous week. As of September 18, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 9.67%. As of September 18, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 315,206 tons, an increase of 2,364 tons from the previous trading day [40]. - As of September 18, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, the inventory in the Guangdong region was 21,000 tons, and the inventory in the Wuxi region was 29,400 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [40]. 3.6后市展望 - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. Price fluctuations will be reduced, and arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][53].