1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is cautiously bullish [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the spot TC price of copper concentrates remains low, but the mid - year long - term contract price signed by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is $0/ton, which is better than the current spot price. With the Comex copper price still at a premium, LME and domestic inventories are flowing to the US market, leading to potential squeeze pressure. Considering the recent increase in risk sentiment, it is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper operations, with the buying range suggested between 78,600 yuan/ton and 79,200 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options at 78,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On July 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,630 yuan/ton and closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 80,620 yuan/ton and closed at 80,390 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 150 - 250 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, with an average premium of 200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was reported at 80,120 - 80,290 yuan/ton. The spread between different months widened to 250 yuan/ton. Although holders were eager to hold prices, trading was light. It is expected that the widening spread may suppress the premium, but trade and speculative demand may support market trading [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill. The July 9 deadline for trade tariff suspension is approaching, and President Trump said he would not consider extending it. The Fed did not rule out taking action at any meeting. US economic data led traders to slightly reduce expectations of a Fed rate cut, making copper prices trend stronger without obvious fundamental stimuli [3]. - **Domestic Economy**: The Caixin China PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [3]. - **Mining End**: In May, Chile's copper production was 486,574 tons, up 4.9% month - on - month and 9.4% year - on - year. A Canadian company plans to create a new copper company and acquire a copper - gold mine. In Panama, over 33,000 tons of copper concentrates have been shipped out since a mine closure [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: In the first five months of 2025, Russia's exports of basic metals to China increased significantly, with copper exports up 66% year - on - year. Some Russian new - produced copper is declared as scrap copper to avoid taxes, and some sanctioned companies still supply China through middlemen [4]. - **Consumption**: In the recent week, the operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 74.01%, down 1.81 percentage points month - on - month and 2.22 percentage points lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 70.18%, down 3.08 percentage points month - on - month. Some enterprises faced losses due to rising raw material prices and had to cut production [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 650 tons to 91,250 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,078 tons to 24,773 tons. On June 30, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 126,100 tons, down 4,000 tons from the previous week [5].