9月26日再生57-3黄铜棒(贵溪)价格指数为54485元/吨，上涨107元/吨，涨幅0.2%。 （9月26日）全国铜价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | 地 | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海华 | 82485元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | CATH-2 ; | 通 | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 广东南 | 82580元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | CATH-2 ; | 储 | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海有 | 82510元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海有色金属交易中心 | | CATH-2 ; | 色 | 吨 | | | | 【市场资讯】 自由港麦克莫兰公司周三宣布格拉斯伯格矿场遭遇不可抗力，预计第三季度铜、金综合销量将下滑。声 明称，这座全球最大金银铜矿之一或将于202 ...

Group 1: Copper Price Movement - On September 25, the main copper contract in Shanghai surged approximately 3.5%, nearing 83,000 yuan/ton, marking the highest point since June 2024 [1] - The current price of domestic 1 electrolytic copper is reported at 82,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the previous period [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Impact - The mudslide incident at Freeport Indonesia's Grasberg mine has led to a suspension of operations, with an estimated 800,000 tons of wet material affecting multiple operational layers [3] - The company anticipates a 4% year-on-year decline in copper sales and a 6% decline in gold sales for Q3, with a potential 35% reduction in projected production for FY2026 [3] - The incident is expected to tighten raw material supply, potentially impacting domestic refined copper output [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts indicate that the copper market has been constrained by rapid expansion in smelting capacity and ongoing disruptions in the copper concentrate market [3] - The domestic refined copper output is projected to reach 13.62 million tons by 2025, with nearly 3 million tons of new capacity expected from 2024 to 2026 [3] - The anticipated tightness in raw material supply may further support copper prices, with expectations for spot copper prices to remain in the range of 82,500 to 84,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - The recent price surge has led to increased pressure on traders and copper processing companies, with some facing margin call challenges [6] - The upcoming National Day holiday may affect downstream operations and stocking demands, potentially leading to an increase in copper inventory levels [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Optimistic macro expectations, low inventories, and consumer recovery have led to an upward trend in copper prices. With the approaching likely Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected 'Golden September and Silver October' consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to continue rising in the near - term [1][2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Tuesday, LME copper prices rose significantly. On September 3, 2025, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 80,700 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous trading day. - The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Shanghai Metals Market was 80,500 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It was at a premium of 90 - 300 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2509 contract. The supply of imported and domestic copper in the spot market has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamentals - The start time of LME's Asian trading on Wednesday was postponed by 90 minutes, and the reason is unknown. - The lack of confidence in the copper market was due to weak downstream consumption. However, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18 and the expected consumption peak season in China, copper prices started to rise. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, up 0.1 from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery of the economy and providing some support for copper demand. - The recent rise in gold prices has also boosted copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Although the Shanghai copper main contract once broke through the 80,000 yuan/ton mark, the overall trend was a bit sluggish. After the price soared, long - position holders were more willing to reduce their positions, resulting in a long upper shadow on the K - line. - Given the low spot inventory and the expected consumption peak season, with the approaching Fed rate cut on September 18, copper prices may have formed an upward trend in the near - term [9].

Group 1 - The price index for recycled brass rods (Guixi) on August 21 is 52,728 CNY/ton, an increase of 65 CNY/ton, representing a 0.12% rise [1] - The current market prices for electrolytic copper are as follows: Shanghai Huatuo at 78,800 CNY/ton, Guangdong Nanshu at 78,670 CNY/ton, and Shanghai YS at 78,745 CNY/ton [2] - The closing price for the main copper futures contract on August 21 is 78,540 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.05% [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot market's Shanghai-London ratio is 8.11, with an import profit/loss of 234.81 CNY/ton, down from 354.75 CNY/ton the previous trading day [3] - As of August 21, LME copper registered warehouse receipts total 145,000 tons, with canceled receipts at 11,350 tons, an increase of 600 tons, while copper inventory remains unchanged at 156,350 tons [3] Group 3 - CICC's research report indicates that the collapse of a Chilean mine will prevent it from contributing additional output for several years, compounded by the lack of recovery at the Panama copper mine and U.S. actions against illegal mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo, tightening supply constraints [4] - The current market is experiencing a traditional off-peak consumption season, with decent performance in power grid investment orders, while real estate demand remains weak [4] - Downstream purchasing behavior is characterized by a "buy on the rise, not on the fall" mentality, leading to a mixed market sentiment in the Shanghai copper market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US employment market, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising. However, the traditional consumption off - season in China suppresses downstream demand, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad fluctuates. The Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of different copper markets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 78,580, up 250 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,792 lots, a decrease of 19,597 lots; the open interest was 159,866 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots; the inventory was 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,615, up 195 from the previous day [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 5, 2025, was 9,634.5, down 74 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 153,850 tons. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.32, down 14.59; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 142.61, down 3.38. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.1561, up 0.09 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on August 5, 2025, was 4.3795, down 0.06. The total inventory weight was 262,190, an increase of 2,509 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Project Progress**: Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II mining and beneficiation expansion project is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After the project is put into operation, the annual output of copper ore of Julong Copper will be about 300,000 - 350,000 tons, which is expected to significantly increase the company's performance [2]. - **Production Interruption**: Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, has stopped the mining operation of its flagship El Teniente copper mine due to an accident and postponed the release of its quarterly results. The impact on production is unknown [2]. - **Tariff Impact**: Affected by the US tariff on copper semi - finished products, some domestic copper processing exports to the US are under pressure. The comprehensive tariff of copper tubes exported to the US has reached 97%, and domestic copper tube enterprises' export orders are directly affected [2]. - **Corporate Strategy Adjustment**: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials is considering partially shutting down its smelter and reducing the processing volume of copper concentrate due to the continuous decline of copper concentrate processing and smelting fees (TC/RCs) [2]. 3.3 Industry Operation - **Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wires have increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased. The capacity utilization rate and production volume of China's copper strips have increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased. The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have remained unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: In August, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper processing enterprises may decline month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods and copper strips and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper enameled wires, copper foils, and copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [2].

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, the copper market experienced a rebound in prices due to a combination of policy support, tight supply, and positive demand expectations, with domestic 1 electrolytic copper prices reaching 79,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.09% over three trading days, challenging the 80,000 yuan mark [1] Group 1: Driving Factors - Driving Factor 1: Domestic Policy Support and Macroeconomic Recovery - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to promote growth in key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a 0.73% increase in copper futures [3] - Despite the short-term challenges in policy implementation, the announcement provided confidence to copper smelting enterprises facing low profits due to ongoing low processing fees [3] - Driving Factor 2: Tight Supply and Increasing Supply-Demand Imbalance - The current tightness in the copper market is attributed to both primary and recycled copper shortages, with the price difference between refined and recycled copper narrowing significantly [4] - The decline in copper prices has pressured processing profits, leading to some processing plants halting operations, while the tight supply of raw materials continues to challenge smelting operations [4] - Driving Factor 3: Positive Demand Outlook - The announcement of a major hydropower project in China is expected to boost demand in the cable industry, although it may not have an immediate impact on copper rod purchases [5] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a short-term recovery due to government subsidies and high temperatures driving air conditioning demand, increasing trading activity in the copper tube market [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - Supply Side: The implementation of a 50% copper tariff by the U.S. is expected to reduce the outflow of domestic copper, but the ongoing challenges in the copper concentrate market will continue to test smelting operations [7] - Demand Side: Anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption may lead to a recovery in demand [7] - Overall, the copper price is expected to remain supported at the bottom, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 81,000 yuan/ton [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The global electrolytic copper total inventory continues to accumulate due to factors such as disturbances in overseas copper mine production or transportation, the significant impact of the traditional domestic consumption off - season, and Trump's government's tariff policies. Copper prices may still have downward space. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,430, down 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 79,136 lots, down 2,530; the open interest was 172,204 lots, down 6,478. The average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 78,720, down 265 [2]. - **London Copper Futures**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic) on July 14 was 9,643.5, down 19.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 109,625 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the copper futures active contract was 5.5255, down 0.1. The total inventory was 236,454 tons, an increase of 5,311 tons [2]. Industry News - **CSPT Meeting**: In the second - quarter general manager's office meeting in 2025, CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fee [2]. - **US Treasury Plan**: The US Treasury plans to raise its cash reserves to $500 billion by the end of July and September through increasing the scale of weekly standard - fixed - rate bond auctions, which helps reduce market shocks [2]. Upstream Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The world's (China's) port copper concentrate departure (loading, inventory) volume has changed compared to last week. Due to the Sino - US trade dispute, the willingness of traders to accept US scrap copper is low. However, the negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper economically viable, and the scrap copper import window may open, but the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in July may decrease month - on - month, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - **Smelting Plants**: Some smelting plants have production problems. For example, Glencore's EKSAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Suned copper smelter in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply. Some new smelting plants are expected to be put into production, such as the Kanoa - Tabula smelter in the Congo (Kinshasa) and some domestic projects [3]. Downstream Situation - **Copper Rod**: The processing fee of copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has decreased compared to last week. Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory due to high finished - product inventories, but new orders have slightly improved. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rod and recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared to last week [3]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable has increased compared to last week. The raw material inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased, while the finished - product inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of copper cable wrapping have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days of cable - wrapping enterprises have decreased [3]. - **Other Products**: The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip has increased, but the downstream demand is weak due to the traditional consumption off - season. The capacity utilization rate of steel pipes has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase or decrease [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are advised to hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 83,000), London copper (9,400 - 9,600 and 9,900 - 10,200), and US copper (5.0 - 6.3 and 6.0 - 7.0) [3].

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - **Macro**: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Upstream**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward price movements driven by supply-demand imbalances, geopolitical factors, and economic stimulus measures in China, with expectations of a short-term upward trend in copper prices [4]. Price Summary - On July 2, the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted at 80,990 yuan/ton, which is a premium of 450 yuan/ton over the futures main price of 80,540 yuan/ton [1]. - The national copper price overview shows various prices for 1 electrolytic copper, with Shanghai Huatuo at 80,990 yuan/ton, Guangdong Nanshu at 80,870 yuan/ton, and Shanghai YS at 80,890 yuan/ton [2]. Futures Market Overview - On July 2, the closing price for the main copper futures contract was 80,540 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.65% increase, with a daily trading volume of 101,958 contracts [2]. - The highest price reached during the day was 80,930 yuan/ton, while the lowest was 80,320 yuan/ton [2]. Inventory Data - As of June 27, the Shanghai copper futures inventory was recorded at 81,550 tons, a decrease of 19,264 tons from the previous trading day [3]. - On July 2, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported copper registered warrants at 61,350 tons and canceled warrants at 31,900 tons, with total copper inventory increasing by 2,000 tons to 93,250 tons [3]. Market Analysis - According to a report from Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures, expectations for a global manufacturing recovery are rising due to the easing of geopolitical risks and continued economic stimulus in China [4]. - The report highlights a significant global shortage of refined copper, with declining overseas LME inventories and low domestic stocks, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices driven by supply-demand mismatches and increased applications in AI and electrification [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is cautiously bullish [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the spot TC price of copper concentrates remains low, but the mid - year long - term contract price signed by Antofagasta and Chinese smelters is $0/ton, which is better than the current spot price. With the Comex copper price still at a premium, LME and domestic inventories are flowing to the US market, leading to potential squeeze pressure. Considering the recent increase in risk sentiment, it is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper operations, with the buying range suggested between 78,600 yuan/ton and 79,200 yuan/ton. The option strategy is to sell put options at 78,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On July 1, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,630 yuan/ton and closed at 80,640 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 80,620 yuan/ton and closed at 80,390 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Market**: According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a premium of 150 - 250 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract, with an average premium of 200 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was reported at 80,120 - 80,290 yuan/ton. The spread between different months widened to 250 yuan/ton. Although holders were eager to hold prices, trading was light. It is expected that the widening spread may suppress the premium, but trade and speculative demand may support market trading [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill. The July 9 deadline for trade tariff suspension is approaching, and President Trump said he would not consider extending it. The Fed did not rule out taking action at any meeting. US economic data led traders to slightly reduce expectations of a Fed rate cut, making copper prices trend stronger without obvious fundamental stimuli [3]. - **Domestic Economy**: The Caixin China PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [3]. - **Mining End**: In May, Chile's copper production was 486,574 tons, up 4.9% month - on - month and 9.4% year - on - year. A Canadian company plans to create a new copper company and acquire a copper - gold mine. In Panama, over 33,000 tons of copper concentrates have been shipped out since a mine closure [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: In the first five months of 2025, Russia's exports of basic metals to China increased significantly, with copper exports up 66% year - on - year. Some Russian new - produced copper is declared as scrap copper to avoid taxes, and some sanctioned companies still supply China through middlemen [4]. - **Consumption**: In the recent week, the operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 74.01%, down 1.81 percentage points month - on - month and 2.22 percentage points lower than expected. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises dropped to 70.18%, down 3.08 percentage points month - on - month. Some enterprises faced losses due to rising raw material prices and had to cut production [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 650 tons to 91,250 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,078 tons to 24,773 tons. On June 30, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 126,100 tons, down 4,000 tons from the previous week [5].