数据显示，1月7日上海1#电解铜现货价格报价103410.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格(103410.00元/吨)贴 水0.0元/吨。 (1月7日)全国铜价格一览表 兴业期货研报：供给偏紧预期与金融属性支撑共振美联储仍然处于降息周期，美元计价金属品种获得较 强支撑，且电解铜供应紧张局面将至少持续至今年年中，全球头部矿山企业减产趋势明显，而近日智利 北部Mantoverde铜金矿罢工事件加剧了市场对矿端供给紧缺的担忧，铜价延续中长期上行趋势。 期货市场上看，1月7日收盘，沪铜期货主力合约报103410.00元/吨，涨幅0.11%，最高触及105500.00元/ 吨，最低下探102330.00元/吨，日内成交量达329686手。 【市场资讯】 曼托维德矿预计年产铜2.9万至3.2万吨，仅占今年全球铜产量预期值2400万吨的一小部分。 1月7日，上期所沪铜期货仓单录得96474吨，较上一交易日增长3203吨；最近一周，沪铜期货仓单累计 增长14699吨，增长幅度为17.97%；最近一个月，沪铜期货仓单累计增长66518吨，增长幅度为 222.05%。 分析观点： | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | ...

12月29日，沪铜期货气势如虹，主力合约价格大幅走高，历史性地突破了每吨10万元的里程碑关口。截至发稿，沪铜主力合约报101840.00元/ 吨，涨幅达3.80%。 机构观点 【消息面汇总】 近期国内现货铜价偏强上涨，截至12月26日国内1#电解铜现货价格为97850元/吨，同比涨幅31.78%，环比涨幅3.17%。 12月19日，刚果(金)矿业部发布第00964号部长令，下令立即在全国范围内暂停所有与手工铜和钴相关的采矿、加工和商业化活动。 12月26日，国家发展改革委产业发展司发布文章《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，文章指出，对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于 强化管理、优化布局。 广州期货：当前因贵金属溢价、区域性错配、新兴消费增速、全球流动性预期与相对韧性的宏观经济，市场投资者持续加码铜市多配策略，但持 仓过度集中可能放大价格波动。高铜价对淡季阶段需求的负反馈更加明显，12月26日上海铜贴水幅度已扩至340元，广东铜贴水205元。同时国内 铜社库持续累库，现实需求的疲弱可能对纪录涨势的铜价形成高位调整压力。策略上，在驱动铜价的主要矛盾未发生变化前，仍以多头思路去对 待，但建议持有多头的情况下， ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-16，沪铜主力合约开于 93500元/吨，收于 91920元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.52%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 92210元/吨，收于91830 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.10%。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 现货成交相对清淡 铜价维持震荡格局 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对次月2601合约报价贴水180至贴水70元/吨，均价为贴水125元/吨，较前一 日下跌185元。现货价格区间为91320-92030元/吨。主力2601合约早间波动于91500-92150元，跨月价差维持在C110 至C70之间。市场卖方出货意愿较强，但买方接货情绪低迷，导致现货升水持续走低，整体成交清淡。早间持货商 对次月报价平水铜贴水140元/吨左右，好铜贴水约70元/吨；午后进一步下滑，平水铜最低贴至180元/吨，好铜报贴 水100元/吨。今日，由于2512合约已完成交割，持货商流转意愿不强，预计现货仍将维持较大幅度贴水。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 铜价高企暂时抑制下游需求 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-09，沪铜主力合约开于 92820元/吨，收于 91090元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-2.02%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 91630元/吨，收于 91070 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌1.13%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价升水10-180元/吨，均价升水95元/吨，较昨日下跌35元。1#电解铜价格区 间为91780-92650元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约短暂触及92660元后回落，上午低位探至91770元。市场出货意愿增强， 部分持货商主动下调报价，成交价格随之走低。下游因高价抑制采购需求，整体交投清淡。早盘中条山、铁峰等 平水铜报价约升水50元/吨，成交困难，随后普遍在升水20-30元/吨达成交易。JCC、鲁方等品牌货源跌至升水60-80 元/吨，湿法及非注册货源价格亦同步下行。跨月价差维持Contango结构，当月进口亏损约1200元/吨。在当前高铜 价环境下，下游消费持续受限，预计今日现货升水可能进一步承压走弱。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，国内方面，5 ...

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 87,400 CNY per ton, showing a discount of 30 CNY per ton compared to the futures main price of 87,430 CNY per ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 87,430 CNY per ton, reflecting a daily increase of 0.41%, with a trading volume of 94,508 lots [2] - The LME executive indicated that due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. copper tariffs, COMEX copper prices are expected to maintain a premium over LME prices for the next 18 months [3] Market Overview - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded a decrease in copper futures warehouse receipts, down by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons on November 27, with a cumulative decline of 19,110 tons over the past week, representing a 34.76% drop [3] - In terms of industrial performance, profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in China fell by 5.5% year-on-year in October [4] - Freeport's report suggests that copper mine production is expected to remain stable next year, aligning with market expectations, while smelting output is anticipated to decline [4] Consumption and Pricing Dynamics - Recent feedback from downstream sectors indicates that after a drop in copper prices, consumption has shown some improvement, although the extent and sustainability of this recovery remain uncertain [4] - The domestic market has not yet shown significant inventory depletion, and there are expectations of continued export arrangements [4] - The recent macroeconomic environment has led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, which may influence copper pricing dynamics in the near term [4]

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 86,795.00 CNY/ton, showing a discount of 45.0 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 86,840.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 86,840.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16%, with a trading volume of 76,287 lots [2] Industry Overview - A survey of 61 domestic refined copper rod production enterprises indicates a total capacity of 15.84 million tons, with an expected production of 756,000 tons in October 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.99% [3] - A survey of 74 sample enterprises in the recycled copper rod sector shows a total capacity of 8.19 million tons, with an anticipated production of 167,700 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.81% [3] - The increase in copper prices in October has notably suppressed downstream demand, leading to a significant decline in refined copper rod production [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Guangzhou Futures, the nearing end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced macroeconomic risks, but uncertainties in economic data continue to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [4] - The copper market is experiencing a transmission of raw material shortages to the smelting sector due to mining accidents, with current prices showing bottom support; however, a breakthrough above previous highs requires additional positive drivers and substantial capital inflow [4] - The market is expected to trend within a range, indicating a potential for fluctuations rather than a clear upward trajectory [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, copper prices remained in a relatively volatile pattern, supported by mine - end interference factors. However, the demand side is lackluster, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can arrange buy or sell hedging according to this range [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 86,790 yuan/ton and closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 86,590 yuan/ton and closed at 86,770 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,610 - 86,920 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 55 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. After the morning copper futures hit 87,000 yuan/ton and then fell, the market's purchase sentiment cooled. The premium of flat - water copper gradually narrowed, and some brands were traded at a small discount. Shanghai's inventory is continuously decreasing, and the quotes of holders tend to be stable [2] Important Information Summary - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds to the federal government until January 30 next year. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday. In the employment market, the U.S. "small non - farm" warned again: from the four - week period ending October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in the month [3] Supply - Side Information Mine End - On November 11, Canadian multi - metal developer BMC Minerals submitted a prospectus to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, planning to raise 100 million Australian dollars through an initial public offering (IPO) to list on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in December. The funds will be used for the exploration, approval, and optimization research of the KZK project in Canada's Yukon Territory, which covers an area of 372 square kilometers with a total mineral resource of 27.9 million tons [4] Smelting and Import - As of the end of October this year, the cumulative import of copper concentrate powder at Wulate Customs exceeded 10 million tons, reaching 10.0656 million tons, with a value of 133.873 billion yuan. In the first 10 months, the import volume was 1.215 million tons, with a value of 25.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 56.2% and 106.9% respectively [5] Consumption and Inventory Information Consumption - In October 2025, the domestic copper strip production was 189,100 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month decrease. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 63.84%. According to the production plan, the domestic copper strip production in November is expected to be 194,600 tons, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 375 tons to 136,250 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 825 tons to 42,964 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 195,900 tons, a decrease of 74,000 tons compared with the previous week [6] Copper Price and Basis Data - It includes data on copper price, premium and discount, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage indicators from different time points (today, yesterday, last week, one month ago) [24][25][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, but in the short - term (November), there is no strong driving force, and the market is in an adjustment phase [3]. - **Copper**: The spot market's purchasing sentiment is high, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper is 86,535 yuan/ton with an expanding premium. However, when the price breaks through 86,000 yuan/ton, downstream counter - offer willingness increases. Whether the copper price can break through the trading - intensive area remains to be seen [12]. - **Aluminum**: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry. For alumina, it is on an over - supply path despite some price increases due to environmental restrictions [33]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC dropped significantly due to intense competition for mines and limited domestic mine increments. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and low inventory supports the price. There is some upward driving force in November, and export and macro factors need to be monitored [58]. - **Nickel**: Weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The Philippines' nickel mine production and shipment are affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the price may remain strong in the short - term. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless - steel demand needs attention [74]. - **Tin**: Supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption in Wabang and reduced concentrate imports. The Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock, with a predicted support at around 276,000 yuan. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increment is stable, and demand is strong in November. The market sentiment is positive. Technically, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend, short - term adjustment in November [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold and silver prices, and their ratios are presented in the report [4]. - **Spread Data**: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot spreads are shown [5][7]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are provided [11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: High purchasing sentiment, average 1 electrolytic copper price at 86,535 yuan/ton, and expanding premium [12]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are given. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 86,630 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17% [13]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented [19][21]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import profit is - 585.37 yuan/ton, and copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 3,393.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13.58% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: Shanghai copper's total warehouse receipts are 42,964 tons, a decrease of 1.88% [29]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Funds drive the price, but there is a contradiction with the industry. Domestic supply is stable, and demand is weak [33]. - **Alumina**: Some price increases due to environmental restrictions, but overall in an over - supply situation [33]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum futures, alumina futures, and aluminum alloy futures are provided [35]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina are presented [37][39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international aluminum spot prices and premiums are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London aluminum warehouse receipts and inventories, as well as alumina warehouse receipts, are reported [52]. Zinc - **Market Outlook**: TC dropped in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the price, and there is upward driving force [58]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided [59]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented [67]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts and inventories are reported [71]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Weak demand in the off - season, affected by macro factors. Nickel mine prices may be strong, and nickel iron and stainless - steel demand need attention [74]. - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt numbers of Shanghai and London nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are given [75]. Tin - **Market Outlook**: Supply is weaker than demand, and the price will maintain a high - level shock. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [90]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot products are presented [95]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin's warehouse receipts and London tin's inventory are reported [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is strong, and it is in a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are given [105]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot products, as well as their price differences, are presented [110]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest numbers, daily and weekly changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and various social inventories are reported [114]. Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, with wide - range fluctuations expected [116]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116]. - **Industry Chain Price**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain are presented [123][124][125]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as the polysilicon inventory, are reported [130][134][143].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new processing fee pricing logics, and China's Non - Ferrous Metals Supply Association has proposed setting an upper limit on some non - ferrous metal smelting capacities. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The November strategy is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the recommended buying range between 85,500 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. When the price approaches 89,000 yuan/ton, sell - hedging can be carried out [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 4, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 87,430 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 85,740 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 85,000 yuan/ton and closed at 85,690 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decline from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The domestic spot 1 electrolytic copper was quoted between 86,290 and 86,890 yuan/ton. The spot market showed a discount of 70 to a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the current - month contract, and the average price increased slightly by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper price dropped from 86,800 yuan/ton to around 86,400 yuan/ton during the day, and the import loss of the current - month contract narrowed to about 800 yuan/ton. Downstream buyers generally expected the copper price to fall further and were conservative in purchasing. If the copper price falls below 86,000 yuan/ton, it may stimulate some purchases, but the market is still bearish. As the spread between near - and far - month contracts narrows, holders may lower premiums to promote transactions [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro - news - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest "shutdown" record in U.S. history. The U.S. Supreme Court will hear whether Trump's tariff policy is legal this Wednesday [3]. 3.2.2 Mine End - The general election in Tanzania caused unrest, leading to the temporary closure of the Dar es Salaam Port, an important hub for African copper exports to China. About two - thirds of copper shipments to China are transshipped through this port, resulting in shipping delays, increased logistics and insurance costs, and some cargo being stranded in the port. Afenhao Mining announced that its Phase I concentrator at Pratt Reef started feeding on October 29, and the first batch of concentrates is expected to be produced in the next few weeks. Indonesia's Energy Ministry approved Amman Mineral to export 480,000 dry tons of copper concentrates for six months [3]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - Glencore plans to close its Horne copper smelter in Quebec, Canada, due to environmental issues and the need for millions of dollars in facility upgrades. The annual copper production of this smelter is expected to exceed 300,000 tons, which will intensify the global copper shortage expectation [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Yingtan City has transformed its investment - promotion concept, driving the high - quality development of the copper - based new materials industrial cluster. The revenue of local copper enterprises accounts for 15% of the national industry, and the copper product output ranks first in the country. AI data centers have extremely high power demand, and China plans to build 1,000 large - scale AI data centers in the next five years [4]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,025 tons to 133,900 tons compared to the previous day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,081 tons to 41,147 tons. On November 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [5][6]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data | Project | 2025 - 11 - 05 | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 10 - 29 | 2025 - 10 - 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 copper (spot, premium/discount) | 0 | - 5 | - 55 | 15 | | Premium copper | 60 | 60 | - 5 | 70 | | Flat - water copper | - 45 | - 30 | - 85 | - 30 | | Wet - process copper | - 90 | - 100 | - 145 | - 80 | | Yangshan premium | 51 | 51 | 53 | 54 | | LME (0 - 3) | - 26 | - 14 | - 24 | - 25 | | LME inventory | 133,900 | 133,600 | 134,575 | 139,550 | | SHFE inventory | 116,140 | - | 104,792 | - | | COMEX inventory | 325,213 | 322,649 | 315,465 | 296,716 | | SHFE warehouse receipts | 41,147 | 40,066 | 35,846 | 26,823 | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 8.33% | 9.95% | 7.34% | 5.68% | | CU2602 - CU2511 (continuous three - month - near - month) | 50 | 70 | - 30 | - 300 | | CU2512 - CU2511 (main - near - month) | 40 | 40 | - 10 | - 240 | | CU2512/AL25 | 3.99 | 4.04 | 4.11 | 4.02 | | CU251/ZN25 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.90 | 3.81 | | Import profit | - 685 | - 872 | - 765 | - 528 | | SHFE - LME ratio (main contract) | 8.05 | 8.07 | 7.89 | 8.07 | [24][25][28]