1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have recently surged, with LME copper breaking through USD 11,000 per tonne and SHFE copper approaching RMB 90,000 per tonne, surpassing historical highs. The rise is likely due to expectations of continued supply - side contraction as CSPT members will reduce copper ore production capacity by over 10% in 2026 [4][5]. - With increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts, the return of liquidity is favorable for copper prices. Also, as the Fed chair transition approaches, the US dollar index may be relatively weak, supporting copper prices [6][9]. - On the supply side, copper mine supply disturbances are increasing, TC remains low, and scrap - copper recycling cost and difficulty are rising. Supply has already started to contract, with copper output falling by over 50k tonnes in September and continuing to decline in October [7]. - On the demand side, although terminal demand for copper is weak in the off - season, spot premiums are positive, and Chile's state - owned copper company is raising the refined copper annual premium to Chinese customers, indicating expected tighter supply - demand for refined copper next year [8]. - It is anticipated that under the backdrop of a weak US dollar and significant supply - side constraints, the center of gravity for copper prices will shift further upward, and investors are advised to continue monitoring long positions in copper [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Event Review - Copper prices have reached new historical highs. The trigger is the expectation of supply - side contraction as CSPT members will cut copper ore production capacity by more than 10% in 2026 due to low spot processing fees for copper concentrate and upcoming 2026 long - term processing fee negotiations [4][5]. Market Outlook - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Expectations for Fed rate cuts are rising, and as the Fed chair transition nears, concerns about the Fed's independence may keep the US dollar index weak, which is favorable for copper prices [6][9]. - **Supply Aspect**: Copper mine supply disturbances are increasing, with the Grasberg mine's production cut exacerbating the tightness. Low TC and the risk of further decline triggered CSPT's joint production cut. The cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have increased, leading to production cuts at some scrap - copper smelters since Q3, and copper output has declined in September and October [7]. - **Demand Aspect**: Terminal demand for copper is weak in the off - season, but spot premiums are positive, showing increasing downstream acceptance of higher copper prices. Chile's state - owned copper company is raising the annual premium for refined copper to Chinese customers, reflecting expected tighter supply - demand next year [8]. - **Overall Outlook**: With a weak US dollar and strong supply - side contraction expectations, the center of gravity for copper prices is expected to move further upward, and investors are advised to monitor long positions in copper [9].