铜供需结构
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社会库存低位震荡 短期预计铜价将高位震荡运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-14 07:06
News Summary Core Viewpoint - The copper market is facing supply disruptions due to incidents at major mines, leading to potential operational halts and fluctuations in prices, while demand remains stable but is influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is experiencing a landslide, which may force Freeport Indonesia to suspend operations at the Manyar smelter by the end of October due to a shortage of copper concentrate [1]. - Codelco's copper production significantly dropped to 93,400 tons in August due to an accident at the El Teniente mine, resulting in six fatalities and subsequent mine closure [2]. - Weekly copper concentrate processing fees for imports have shown a slight increase, reflecting instability in overseas mining operations [2]. Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - Recent data indicates a decrease in operating rates for copper cable and brass rod manufacturers, primarily due to the National Day holiday in China [2]. - Strong export data from China in September, along with ongoing expansion in domestic demand and manufacturing, has improved industrial profits [3]. - The global supply concerns are expected to lead to a continued rebound in copper prices, despite low social inventory levels [3].