铜价自4月初以来持续走高，过去六个月累计上涨逾20%。截至发稿，LME铜期货报10,727.50美元/吨。瑞银在近日发布的研报中表示，铜的市场前景 正越来越多地受到供应端因素推动，该行对铜价的预测继续显示出更多的上涨潜力，且这一潜力的实现速度正在加快。瑞银认为，未来几个季度铜价 可能在每吨10,000美元至11,500美元区间内运行。该行将2026年9月的铜价预测上调至每吨11,500美元(此前为每吨11,000美元)，同时将其他时间点的铜 价预测整体提前一个季度。 在需求端，瑞银表示，中国仍是全球铜需求增长的核心支撑力量，终端需求主要来自电动汽车、可再生能源及家电行业。今年以来，中国的精炼铜产 量与铜精矿进口量均有所增加。与此同时，来自欧洲和美国的传统终端行业需求仍然疲弱，但电网建设与新能源需求依然坚挺。 总体而言，瑞银维持铜需求预测不变，预计2025年、2026年精炼铜需求将分别增长2.2%、2.9%。因此，2025年、2026年的铜供应缺口将分别达到5.3 万吨、8.7万吨。 瑞银称，该行此次对铜价预测的调整幅度有限，因为铜价仍存在双向风险。短期内，全球经济增长放缓的影响不容低估。另外，若美国铜进口放缓 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 10 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜高开高走，印尼 Grasberg 矿事故导致减产以及 SMM 公布的 9 月精铜产量环比 下降 5 万吨，矿端及冶炼端产量下降环比下降预期正在夯实，供应端压力在放缓， 吸引全球资金关注，LME、COMEX 以及沪铜持仓量均在大幅上涨，而且 CFTC 和 COTR 基金净多持仓量也在持续增加，短期铜价在事件驱动带动资金炒作下，上涨趋势 较 ...

产业宏观利好铜价，关注国内政策 10月铜月报 2025-10-9 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 p 9月铜价偏强运行，月涨幅4.96%，截至9月30日沪铜收盘价为83350元/吨。月初国内宏观环境偏暖，美国就业市场降温且8月CPI符合市场预期下，美 联储降息预期大幅升温，铜价偏强震荡。随后美联储降息25基点如期落地，铜价小幅回调。自由港印尼矿区因为泥石流事故停产，铜矿供应再受扰动， Grasberg矿区2025年四季度铜产销量预计大幅下降推升铜价。铜精矿现货粗炼费TC仍处于-40美元/吨左右历史低位，铜精矿紧缺加剧。9月冶炼厂关停检 修高峰期，叠加阳极铜受税收政策影响供给不足，9月精铜产量环比走低。传统消费旺季成色不足，国庆假期前下游备库需求增加社库去化，库存仍处历史 低位为铜价提供支撑。10月国内政策或陆续出台托底经济，当前矿端扰动叠加宏观利好，预计铜价继续维持偏强运行。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 25-10-09 25-09-25 25-09-19 25-09 ...

铜月报 美联储内部存分歧，沪铜或震荡偏强运行 内容提要 美联储内部对降息幅度存分歧 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 国家统计局数据显示，1—8月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额46929.7亿元，同比增长0.9%。1—8月份，有色金属冶炼和压延 加工业增长12.7%。美联储内部关于利率调整的幅度与速度存在持续辩 论。最新点阵图显示，在19位美联储官员中，有10位认为"今年还将 降息两次或更多"，另外9位则认为将再降息一次，甚至不再降息。CME "美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为10.7%， 降息25个基点的概率为89.3%。美联储12月维持利率不变概率为2.9%， 累计降息25个基点的概率为32.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为64.9%。 中国精炼铜产量同比快速增长 中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）持续维持低位，加工 费持续为负，企业积极性持续受到影响。中国精炼铜产量同比快速增 长，产量维持高位。精废铜价持续缩小。铜材产量同比保持增长，电 网建设投资保持增长，终端需求仍有支撑。 COMEX 铜持续累库 沪铜库存小幅下降，LME铜库存有所回落，COME ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，8月份，制造业PMI升至49.4%，景气水平较上 月有所改善；中性。 2、基差：现货82215，基差40，升水期货； 中性。 3、库存：9月29日铜库存减500至143900吨，上期所铜库存较上周减7035吨至98779吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，等待9月旺季消费指引，印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事 ...

此前由于自由港宣布印尼Grasberg矿遭遇不可抗力并下调铜销量预测，这一事态发展明显超出前期预 期，市场对于矿紧矛盾激化担忧升温，内外铜价受振大涨，大涨过后期价基本消化本次矿端干扰，随后 铜价高位调整。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费低位微升，但幅度有限，供需博弈下加工费暂时低位 企稳。 沪铜早间低开，日内跌幅有所收窄，收盘微跌0.21%。矿端干扰有所消化，临近双节下游备货基本结 束，高铜价对需求有所抑制，国内社库明显增加，铜价偏弱震荡。 》周末全国主流地区铜库存增加0.82万吨【SMM周度数据】 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，平衡预期在铜矿扰动下转入缺口，但现实层面尚待兑现。展望后市，降 息预期分歧和消费偏弱是持续突破的限制因素，但矿山影响量较大，预计限制回落空间，整体运行重心 已上移。后续需持续关注其恢复进展。 （文华综合） ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Resurgence of Disturbances at the Mine End, Copper Prices Prone to Rise and Hard to Fall [1] Report Date - September 29, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has deepened the short - term expectation of copper mine tightness, and the copper price has broken through and risen sharply. The long - term central price of copper will continue to rise. Although the impact of the accident has been digested in the short term and the price has fallen due to profit - taking, the impact on copper supply, demand, and price is likely to be long - term. Copper prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard, and may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The Freeport Indonesia mine has suspended production due to a mudslide accident, and the copper production and sales of the Grasberg mine in Q4 2025 are expected to decline significantly. As of September 26, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - $40.35/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.01%, still at a low level over the years. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production remained stable. In September, smelters entered the peak of shutdown and maintenance, and combined with the impact of policies on anode copper supply, electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease [5][31] - **Demand Side**: Pre - holiday stocking has slightly increased the operating rate. As of September 26, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. This week, enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday, driving the overall operating rate to recover. In terms of actual consumption, although the copper price dropped slightly at the beginning of the week, downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The sudden surge in copper price at the end of the week further suppressed the downstream's willingness to pick up goods, and the main orders were still existing orders [5][35] - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory has changed from an increase to a decrease. As of September 26, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 98,761 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65%. As of September 25, the domestic social copper inventory was 140,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.91%. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream inventory replenishment increased, leading to a decline in inventory. As of September 26, the LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.20%, and the LME copper continued to reduce inventory. The COMEX copper inventory was 32,230 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%, with a slight increase in inventory [6][43] - **Strategy Suggestion**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia will take until 2027 to resume pre - accident production levels, and the 2026 output may be about 35% (about 270,000 tons) lower than previously estimated. The accident has deepened the short - term expectation of copper mine tightness, and the copper price has broken through and risen sharply. The long - term central price of copper will continue to rise. In the domestic market, affected by high copper prices, market consumption has weakened, and some downstream buyers' sentiment of pricing and taking goods has become more cautious. The pre - holiday stocking situation was lower than expected. As the end of the month and the National Day holiday approached, some holders showed a willingness to sell at low prices to recover funds before the holiday, resulting in an expansion of the spot discount. Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, the market arrivals are average, and the inventory has decreased slightly, but there are still imports of copper, and the supply - side pressure is not obvious. China's economic data in August showed a weakening trend month - on - month, and the consumption side in Q4 faces greater pressure. It is expected that China may introduce economic support policies in Q4. Overall, the impact of the Grasberg shutdown in Indonesia has been digested in the short term, and the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but the impact on copper supply, demand, and price may be long - term. Copper prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard and may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data Overview**: In September, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. The central bank stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The US September Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined. The eurozone September manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell into the contraction range, while the services and composite PMI expanded. The US Q2 GDP growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, a two - year high, but inflation pressure was more stubborn. The US August core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [15] - **Industry News Overview**: The El Teniente copper mine in Chile is recovering slowly after the accident, and the annual copper production will be lower than expected. China's August scrap copper imports decreased by 5.64% month - on - month. After the accident at the Grasberg copper mine, Freeport's metal production will face significant losses. The ICSG reported a global copper market surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. The Antamina copper mine in Peru expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons [17] 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The high copper price has weakened downstream stocking sentiment. Near the holiday, the downstream stocking pace was slow, and spot transactions remained around flat water. After the sharp rise in copper price, Shanghai copper spot transactions were weak, with transactions around a small discount. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper spread increased slightly, and the refined - scrap copper spread widened [20] - **Domestic and Foreign Positions**: As of September 26, the Shanghai copper futures position was 229,050 lots, a week - on - week increase of 32.38%. The average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper this week was 137,568.8 lots, a week - on - week increase of 87.48%. Both the position and trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of September 19, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 12,188.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 36.00%. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a week - on - week increase of 3.07% [24] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The Freeport Indonesia mine has suspended production due to a mudslide accident, and the copper production and sales of the Grasberg mine in Q4 2025 are expected to decline significantly. As of September 26, the copper concentrate spot rough smelting fee was - $40.35/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.01%, still at a low level over the years. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The growth rate of domestic refined copper production remained stable. In September, smelters entered the peak of shutdown and maintenance, and combined with the impact of policies on anode copper supply, electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease [31] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of September 26, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 73.78%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14 percentage points. Last week, enterprises mainly stocked up before the holiday, driving the overall operating rate to recover. In terms of actual consumption, although the copper price dropped slightly at the beginning of the week, downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The sudden surge in copper price at the end of the week further suppressed the downstream's willingness to pick up goods, and the main orders were still existing orders. In August, the operating rates of copper plates, strips, tubes, and foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The increase in copper price has reduced the purchasing willingness of downstream manufacturing enterprises, and the growth of downstream orders was lower than expected. The operating rate of copper tubes decreased due to US tariffs, while the operating rate of copper foils increased due to strong downstream demand for lithium - ion copper foils [35] - **Import and Export**: As of September 26, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.03, and the ratio remained stable this week. The negative value of copper spot import profit and loss widened slightly. In August, China's refined copper import volume was 263,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.37%. The scrap copper import volume in August was 179,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. The imports of refined copper and scrap copper increased steadily. In August, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 425,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22% [39] - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 98,761 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.65%. As of September 25, the domestic social copper inventory was 140,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.91%. As the National Day holiday approached, downstream inventory replenishment increased, leading to a decline in inventory. As of September 26, the LME copper inventory was 144,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.20%, and the LME copper continued to reduce inventory. The COMEX copper inventory was 32,230 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%, with a slight increase in inventory [6][43]

铜周报 矿端扰动不断，铜价突破上行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价突破向上，主因美国8月核心通胀表现符合预期， 进一步助推年内降息预期回升，上周多位美国经济领域的 前任领袖阻止解雇库克，称此举将会严重损害美联储政策 独立性以市场对美国货币政策的公信力，解雇风波暂缓提 振美元指数低位反弹；此外，我国8月工业企业利润同比 大幅反弹，反内卷政策效果显著提振市场信心。基本面来 看，印尼Grasberg和秘鲁安塔米纳均大幅下调近期产量预 期，精矿供应愈发趋近，国内精铜产量预期下滑，社会库 存偏低运行，近月盘面回归平水结构。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ...

矿端干扰使得铜价愈发易涨难跌 市场要闻与重要数据 现货情况： 据SMM讯，2025-09-27当周，SMM1#电解铜平均价格运行于80010元/吨至82505元/吨，周中呈现走高的态势。SMM 升贴水报价运行于-5元/吨至60元/吨。库存方面，2025-09-27当周，LME库存变动-0.10万吨至14.44万吨，上期所库 存变化-0.70万吨至9.88万吨。国内社会库存（不含保税区）变化-0.44万吨至14.01万吨，保税区库存变动-0.14万吨 至7.54万吨。Comex库存上涨0.40吨至32.23万吨。 新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 形成对于铜绝对价格的持续性利好，另外国内针对铜冶炼企业的反内卷措施也仍需关注后续具体实施情况，而对 于铜价而言，在临近国庆假期之际，若存在投机头寸仓位过重的情况则建议适当减仓，套保投资则可在80,500元/ 观点： 宏观方面，2025-09-27当周，美联储主席鲍威尔强调称当前政策风险具有双向性；而后美财长贝森特称其认为利率 水平仍然过高，需下调至少100至150个基点；而多位美联储官员也进一步表明了偏向鸽派的货币政策立场。但整 体看美联储未来的降息路径 ...

9月26日再生57-3黄铜棒(贵溪)价格指数为54485元/吨，上涨107元/吨，涨幅0.2%。 （9月26日）全国铜价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | 地 | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海华 | 82485元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | CATH-2 ; | 通 | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 广东南 | 82580元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | CATH-2 ; | 储 | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海有 | 82510元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海有色金属交易中心 | | CATH-2 ; | 色 | 吨 | | | | 【市场资讯】 自由港麦克莫兰公司周三宣布格拉斯伯格矿场遭遇不可抗力，预计第三季度铜、金综合销量将下滑。声 明称，这座全球最大金银铜矿之一或将于202 ...