1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound. The supply side is tight, the demand side is generally stable but with weak new demand, and the macro - sentiment is affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 27, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 95,820 yuan/ton, a 0.59% increase from the previous day. The LME copper price on March 26, 2026, was 12,120 US dollars/ton, down from the previous day. The premium of flat - water copper strengthened, rising to - 100 yuan/ton, while the premiums of premium copper and wet - process copper remained stable [1][39]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: On March 26, 2026, the LME copper futures position increased slightly to 296,463 lots, an increase of 326 lots from the previous day, indicating a slight increase in market participation. There is no direct data on trading volume [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Mine supply is continuously tight. The commissioning of Rio Tinto's Resolution copper mine is delayed until the 2030s, and Barrick has postponed the development of the Reko Diq project in Pakistan, increasing medium - and long - term supply uncertainty. The supply of recycled copper is tight, leading to a narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference and a significant decline in the domestic trade copper concentrate processing fee. Chile faces a risk of sulfuric acid shortage, which may push up smelting costs and suppress short - term production capacity release [2]. - **Demand Side**: Overall demand is stable but shows obvious differentiation. The SMM copper cable production start - up rate increased slightly by 0.24 percentage points to 70.77%. However, the demand in the home appliance field is weakening, and the new orders in the home decoration and enameled wire industries are weak due to the rising price of plastic raw materials. The automobile field provides some support, but new orders decreased by 11.19 percentage points month - on - month [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Domestic inventory continues the destocking trend. On March 26, 2026, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas decreased by 18.29% month - on - month, decreasing for two consecutive weeks. The LME inventory on March 27, 2026, dropped to 237,076 tons, a 3.8% decrease month - on - month, but the absolute level is still at a near - 8 - year high. The SHFE inventory increased slightly to 360,250 tons, reflecting the pressure of imported goods arriving at the port, but the expectation of destocking is rising [2]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound. The driving reasons are tight supply (mine shutdowns and recycled copper shortages support costs), generally stable demand (existing orders support but new demand is weak), and macro - sentiment being disturbed by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East (escalation of conflicts may suppress risk appetite). The price range is 12,000 - 12,500 US dollars/ton for LME copper and 95,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper [3].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The strong dollar restricts the price rebound of copper [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 95,930 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 95,490 with a decrease of 0.46%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,141 with a daily increase of 0.17% [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 207,262, a decrease of 6,030 compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 534,254, a decrease of 9,313. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 15,444, a decrease of 3,008, and the open interest was 295,000, a decrease of 991 [1] - The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 237,076, a decrease of 9,365. The inventory of LME Copper was 360,250, an increase of 425. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 18.76%, an increase of 1.35% [1] - Various copper price spreads and related data showed different changes compared with the previous day, such as the spot - to - futures near - month spread changing from - 100 to - 95 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News Macro News - Iran reported attacks on steel mills and nuclear facilities, drone attacks on Israel's largest transportation center, and warned of counter - measures against US ground operations. It also considered withdrawing from the Nuclear Non - Proliferation Treaty [1][3] - The US Secretary of State said the Iran conflict would last 2 - 4 weeks, and no ground troops were needed to achieve the goals. The US President's special envoy expected to talk with Iran this week [1][3] - Iran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz and turned back three container ships. Saudi Arabia bypassed the Strait, and oil exports from Yanbu Port soared to a record high [1][3] Industry News - Zambia aims to more than triple copper production to 3 million tons by 2031 by attracting global investors [3] - Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah, USA, after a worker died on March 12 [3] - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production from January to February was 2.473 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%. China's February 2026 scrap copper imports were 167,937.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.13% [3] - Peru's January copper production was 226,256 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [3] - Codelco expects the supply disruption caused by the Middle East conflict to increase its production cost by about 5% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for the value indicating different levels from most bearish (-2) to most bullish (2) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper price slightly retraced. As of March 27, it closed at 95,930 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.26%. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the strengthening of the US dollar index have suppressed copper prices. However, the significant reduction of domestic social inventories and the arrival of the peak copper consumption season will support copper prices [5]. - Affected by macro - factors, copper prices will first decline and then rise this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation, and the strengthening of the US dollar will continue to suppress copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation at the mine end continues, and some enterprises have signaled production cuts. Downstream demand is relatively active, and domestic inventories are significantly decreasing. Copper prices may maintain a volatile adjustment [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Review**: Last week, the Shanghai copper price slightly retraced. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the strengthening of the US dollar index have suppressed copper prices. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. Some enterprises have signaled production cuts, and domestic smelting enterprises will enter the peak maintenance period in the second quarter. The decline in copper prices has led to an increase in downstream orders and开工, and domestic copper inventories continue to decline [5]. - **Supply - side**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. As of March 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 458,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.55%. The spot TC of copper concentrates has reached a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high [8][29]. - **Demand - side**: The decline in copper prices has led to an increase in the开工 rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry has maintained a high level of prosperity. Last week (March 20 - March 26), the average weekly starting rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points. The starting rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod in February were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively [8][32]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories continue to decline, while LME inventories continue to accumulate. As of March 27, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. As of March 26, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of the country was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 18.29% compared to March 19. As of March 27, the LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23%. The COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [9][35]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by macro - factors, copper prices will first decline and then rise this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation, and the strengthening of the US dollar will continue to suppress copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation at the mine end continues, and some enterprises have signaled production cuts. Downstream demand is relatively active, and domestic inventories are significantly decreasing. Copper prices may maintain a volatile adjustment [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The significant decline in social inventories has led to a stable premium and discount of Shanghai copper in the game. The LME copper inventory continues to accumulate, the LME 0 - 3 discount continues to widen, and the New York - London copper price difference remains negative [16]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of March 27, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper have both decreased. As of March 20, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions increased by 59.95% week - on - week. As of March 24, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased by 24.21% week - on - week [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. As of March 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 458,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.55%. The spot TC of copper concentrates has reached a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in March will further increase [29]. - **Downstream Starting Rate**: The starting rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod in February were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively. The starting rate of copper foil is much higher than the same period in previous years. Last week (March 20 - March 26), the average weekly starting rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points [32]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories continue to decline, while LME inventories continue to accumulate. As of March 27, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. As of March 26, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of the country was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 18.29% compared to March 19. As of March 27, the LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23%. The COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may show a fluctuating downward trend. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper this week is 92,000 - 97,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, which will support the copper price [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined to the lowest level in history, and the processing fee of blister copper has continued to decline. The supply of cold materials has tightened marginally. Chile's National Copper Corporation produced 1.33 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the expected output in 2026 is 1.33 - 1.36 million tons. Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,000 tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 14.0%, and the output guidance for 2026 is 760,000 - 820,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: The copper price has rebounded in a fluctuating manner, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has weakened, the trading volume has declined but still remains at a relatively high level, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises has increased in a fluctuating manner. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased again [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 52,000 tons to 359,000 tons, the LME inventory has increased by 18,000 tons to 360,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 535,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area has decreased by 15,000 tons. In the spot market, on Friday, the spot price of copper in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the Cash/3M discount in the LME market has narrowed to 70.9 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Import and Export**: The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased. From January to February, China's refined copper imports were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4% [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The copper price has rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai copper has risen by 1.26% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has risen by 2.59% to 12,141 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Spot Price**: The report provides the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper at different times from February 13, 2026, to March 27, 2026, and the price differences between them [27]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price has rebounded, and the basis has weakened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed, reporting a discount of 70.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased [30]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrates has reached a new low, reporting - 68.9 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China has strengthened, which still makes a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [38]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB has depreciated slightly, and the spot Shanghai - London ratio of copper has risen and then fallen [41]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit of copper has risen and then fallen [44]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 63,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared with the previous week. The decrease in the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange mainly comes from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang; the number of copper warrants has decreased by 37,039 to 237,076 tons. The LME inventory has increased, and the increase comes from warehouses in Asia, North America, and Europe; the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased [47][50][53]. 4. Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in February 2026 decreased by about 37,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected that the output in March will rebound significantly and be at a relatively high level in history. According to national statistics data, the refined copper output in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual cumulative output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [58]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to February 2026, China's copper ore imports were 2.624 million tons and 2.31 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in January and February were 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The imports of anode copper in January and February were 65,000 tons and 57,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and 3.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The imports of refined copper in January and February were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6% and 33.3% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 43.8% and 55.0% respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. The exports of refined copper in January and February were 93,000 tons and 78,000 tons respectively. The imports of recycled copper in January and February were 232,000 tons and 168,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% and a decrease of 13.1% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 400,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [61][64][67][73][76]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power (46%), household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), construction (9%), mechanical electronics (9%), and other (10%) sectors. In China, the consumption is mainly in the construction (26%), equipment (23%), industry (12%), transportation (13%), infrastructure (17%), and other (9%) sectors [80]. - **PMI**: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, while the RatingDog comprehensive PMI increased significantly, showing a differentiation in manufacturing prosperity. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies is also differentiated, with the prosperity of Japan, the Eurozone, and India improving, and that of the United States and the United Kingdom weakening [83]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: Among the copper downstream industries, the cumulative output from January to February 2026 increased year - on - year in cold storage, power generation equipment, refrigerators, color TVs, and air conditioners, while it decreased in automobiles, AC motors, and washing machines [86]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to February 2026, the domestic real estate data was weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and completion and new construction showing relatively weak performance. The National Real Estate Climate Index declined in December 2025 [89]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: In February, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises weakened seasonally and is expected to rebound significantly in March; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained at a low level and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises weakened in February and is expected to recover in March, approaching the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound seasonally in March but be lower than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound in March, higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises declined slightly in February and is expected to increase in March, with the operating situation significantly better than that of the same period last year. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises continued to increase, significantly higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased and remained at a relatively low level. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased slightly; the operating rate of copper strip enterprises increased [92][96][99][102][105][108]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, reporting 796 yuan/ton on Friday [113]. 6. Capital Side - **Shanghai Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 79,960 to 1,068,508 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2604 contract is 163,454 lots (bilateral) [118]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of March 24, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio has declined to 15.5%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds has declined (as of March 20) [121].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed; in February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity, which is bullish [2]. - The spot price is 93830, with a basis of -200, at a discount to the futures, which is neutral [2]. - On March 24, copper inventories increased by 11800 to 359275 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 22337 tons from the previous week to 411121 tons, which is bearish [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia has fermented, causing copper prices to reach a new high again. Currently, it is oscillating downward at a high level. Attention should be paid to Middle East events [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory,盘面, and main positions, with a mixed outlook [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy easing and tight mine supply; geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine, Iran - US - Israel; Fed rate cuts; slow mine production increase and the production cut event at Freeport's Indonesian mine [3][4]. - Bearish factors: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs; the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [21]. Other Information - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [13]. - Processing fees are falling [15].

Company Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 349.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 51.8 billion yuan, a 62% increase year-on-year, with a forecast range of 51-52 billion yuan [4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains was 50.7 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year, exceeding the previous forecast of 47.5-48.5 billion yuan [4] Production and Pricing - In 2025, the company produced 90 tons of gold (up 23% from 73 tons in 2024), 1.09 million tons of copper (up 2% from 1.07 million tons in 2024), and 439 tons of silver [5] - The average spot price of gold in Q4 2025 was 4,164 USD/ounce, a 56% increase year-on-year and a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter; the average price of copper was 11,048 USD/ton, up 19% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter [5] Future Production Plans - The company plans to increase production of gold, copper, and lithium carbonate significantly by 2028, with gold production expected to reach 130-140 tons, copper 1.5-1.6 million tons, and lithium carbonate 270,000-320,000 tons, representing growth of 50%, 42%, and 1,057% respectively compared to 2025 [6] Share Buyback Plan - The company intends to repurchase shares worth 1.5-2.5 billion yuan for an employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive, with a maximum repurchase price of 41.5 yuan per share, potentially acquiring 36.14-60.24 million shares, which is 0.14%-0.23% of the total share capital [7] Industry Outlook - Short-term gold and copper prices are constrained by high oil prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to weakening dollar credibility and increasing global uncertainty [8] - For gold, the market is shifting from "rate cut" expectations to "rate hike" due to rising oil prices, leading to a price correction; however, the long-term trend supports a rise in gold prices [8] - For copper, while short-term concerns about interest rates and economic recession may negatively impact prices, the supply remains tight, and demand from new sectors like energy storage and data centers is expected to grow significantly [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The price of copper is under pressure due to the strong US dollar [1] - The trend strength of copper is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 94,740 with a daily increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 93,210 with a decrease of 1.61%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 11,835 with a decrease of 3.09% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 467,991, a decrease of 8,517 from the previous day, and the open interest was 574,234, a decrease of 10,505. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 27,629, a decrease of 19,214, and the open interest was 293,000, an increase of 4,631 [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 287,852, a decrease of 18,528. The LME Copper inventory was 342,350, an increase of 6,925, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 13.34%, a decrease of 0.36% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread increased by 6.12 to -91, the bonded warehouse receipt premium increased by 1 to 48, and the bonded bill of lading premium increased by 1 to 47. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 100 to 86,650 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US may send thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, and the Pentagon has formulated a detailed plan to deploy ground troops to Iran. China's 3 - month LPR remained unchanged for the tenth consecutive month, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3% [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia aims to more than triple its copper production to 3 million tons by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in Utah after a worker death accident. China's refined copper production from January to February was 2.473 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the February 2026 scrap copper import volume was 167,937.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.13% [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market is dominated by macro - pessimistic sentiment. Under the pressure of panic selling, although domestic inventory reduction and demand recovery provide support, copper prices will continue to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market - **Futures Price and Position Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Copper Main Contract, Shanghai Copper Index Weighted, International Copper, LME Copper 3 - month, and COMEX Copper are 94740 yuan/ton, 94755 yuan/ton, 83810 yuan/ton, 12211.5 US dollars/ton, and 552.1 US dollars respectively, with weekly declines of 5.55%, 5.66%, 5.56%, 5.69%, and 5.15% [4] - **Futures Position Changes**: The positions of Shanghai Copper Main Contract, Shanghai Copper Index Weighted, International Copper, LME Copper 3 - month, and COMEX Copper are 201181, 584739, 5292, 239014, and 114946 respectively, with weekly changes of 10270, 3451, - 500, - 38282, and - 1131 [4] - **Futures Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of Shanghai Copper Main Contract, Shanghai Copper Index Weighted, International Copper, LME Copper 3 - month, and COMEX Copper are 243335, 476508, 8470, 46843, and 79577 respectively [4] 3.2 Copper Spot Market - **Spot Price and Change**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze River Non - ferrous are 95615 yuan/ton, 95535 yuan/ton, 95670 yuan/ton, and 95720 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly declines of 5055 yuan/ton, 5360 yuan/ton, 5250 yuan/ton, and 5300 yuan/ton, and weekly decline rates of 5.02%, 5.31%, 5.2%, and 5.25% [8][10] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The latest premiums and discounts of Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, Yangtze River Non - ferrous, LME Copper (spot/3 - month), and LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) are - 45 yuan/ton, - 55 yuan/ton, - 50 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, - 97.12 US dollars/ton, and - 145.75 US dollars/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 130 yuan/ton, - 130 yuan/ton, - 120 yuan/ton, - 45 yuan/ton, 4.99 US dollars/ton, and 3.88 US dollars/ton, and weekly change rates of - 152.94%, - 173.33%, - 171.43%, - 36%, - 4.89%, and - 2.59% [10] 3.3 Copper Advanced Data - **Copper Import Profit and Loss**: The latest copper import profit and loss is 478.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 386.39 yuan/ton and a weekly increase rate of 419.94% [11] - **Copper Concentrate TC**: The latest copper concentrate TC is - 65.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 8.3 US dollars/ton and a weekly decrease rate of 14.51% [11] - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 3.8227, with a weekly decrease of 0.1864 and a weekly decrease rate of - 4.65% [11] - **Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference**: The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is - 461.11 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1055.89 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease rate of - 177.53% [11] 3.4 Copper Inventory - **Domestic Warehouse Receipt and Inventory**: The latest Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts (total), International Copper warehouse receipts (total), and Shanghai Copper inventory are 287852 tons, 15144 tons, and 433458 tons respectively, with weekly changes of - 27211 tons, - 726 tons, and 8313 tons, and weekly change rates of - 8.64%, - 4.57%, and 1.96% [17] - **LME Copper Inventory**: The latest LME Copper registered warehouse receipts, LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts, and LME Copper inventory are 289450 tons, 45975 tons, and 335425 tons respectively, with weekly increases of 19400 tons, 3675 tons, and 23075 tons, and weekly increase rates of 7.18%, 8.69%, and 7.39% [17][18] - **COMEX Copper Inventory**: The latest COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts, COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts, and COMEX Copper inventory are 377604 tons, 211200 tons, and 588804 tons respectively, with weekly changes of 1673 tons, - 5112 tons, and - 3439 tons, and weekly change rates of 0.45%, - 2.36%, and - 0.58% [18] - **Other Inventories**: The latest copper ore port inventory and social inventory are 40.4 million tons and 41.82 million tons respectively, with weekly changes of - 8.1 million tons and 0.43 million tons, and weekly change rates of - 16.7% and 1.04% [18] 3.5 Copper Mid - stream Production - **Refined Copper and Copper Products Output**: In December 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.326 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative output was 2.473 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9%. The monthly output of copper products was 2.229 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%, and the cumulative output was 3.391 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [20] 3.6 Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization - **Capacity Utilization of Different Products**: In February 2026, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, scrap copper rods, copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 38.05%, 9.77%, 35.11%, 22.15%, and 51.14% respectively, with month - on - month differences of - 16.39, - 13.63, - 31.33, - 32.74, and - 21.19, and year - on - year differences of - 14.34, - 12.54, - 22.73, - 15.12, and - 11.57 [22][23] 3.7 Copper Element Import - **Import of Different Copper Elements**: In February 2026, the monthly import of copper concentrate was 2.310344 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the cumulative import was 4.93 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly import of anode copper was 56866 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 23%, and the cumulative import was 749666 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The monthly import of cathode copper was 151246 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 30%, and the cumulative import was 3.344251 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 11%. The monthly import of scrap copper was 167938 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the cumulative import was 2.342512 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4%. The monthly import of copper products was 320000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%, and the cumulative import was 700000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16.1% [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are mixed. Supply - side is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap copper policy being loosened. The February manufacturing PMI dropped 0.3 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price. Copper inventories increased on March 19, and the SHFE copper inventory rose compared to last week. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average trending down. The main position is net long with an increase in long positions. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the copper price hit a new high and is currently oscillating downward at a high level [2] - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply. There are also geopolitical disturbances such as those between Russia - Ukraine and Iran - US - Israel. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the mine production increase is slow with a production cut event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area. On the negative side, the US tariff policy fluctuates, and the global economy is not optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [3][4] - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint on Copper - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, looser scrap copper policy, and a decline in February manufacturing PMI to 49.0% (down 0.3 ppts from last month), considered positive [2] - **Basis**: Spot price is 95535, basis is 1115, indicating a premium of the spot over the futures, considered positive [2] - **Inventory**: On March 19, copper inventory increased by 1325 to 335425 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 8313 tons to 433458 tons compared to last week, considered negative [2] - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is trending down, considered negative [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net long with an increase in long positions, considered positive [2] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, the copper price hit a new high and is currently oscillating downward at a high level. Attention should be paid to Middle - East events [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Global policy easing, mine - end tightness, geopolitical disturbances (Russia - Ukraine, Iran - US - Israel), possible Fed rate cuts, slow mine production increase, and a production - cut event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [3][4] - **利空Factors**: Fluctuating US tariff policies and an unoptimistic global economy with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [4] Other Aspects - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [18][20] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [12] - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is declining [14]

Copper Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE copper price fell slightly from 100,020 yuan/ton on March 17, 2026, to 98,720 yuan/ton on March 18, a decline of 1.3%. The LME copper price dropped from $12,918.5/ton on March 12 to $12,780/ton on March 17. In terms of basis, the premium copper discount remained stable at -60 yuan/ton on March 18, the flat copper discount strengthened from -110 yuan/ton on March 17 to -100 yuan/ton, and the wet copper discount strengthened from -175 yuan/ton to -160 yuan/ton. The LME (0-3) discount widened from -$102/ton on March 12 to -$113.47/ton on March 17, indicating overall weak basis [1][39]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The LME position decreased from 293,259 lots on March 12 to 293,259 lots minus 8,255 lots on March 17, showing a contraction in position. After the copper price decline, the downstream buying interest picked up, and the trading volume may have increased [1][40]. Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: The smelting capacity was operating at full load, as seen in Defu Technology on March 16. However, the supply of recycled copper raw materials was insufficient, leading to an increase in the price of domestic含税 recycled copper raw materials. The import window remained open, and the expectation of overseas supply inflow increased. Although the social inventory was at a high level, the actual circulating supply was tight, and the release of some warehouse receipts alleviated the supply pressure. The recycling of recycled copper in the Philippines and France increased the long - term supply potential [2][41]. - **Demand Side**: In the power sector, the Mengxi - Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei UHV project started on March 17, and the State Grid of Zhejiang planned to invest 51 billion yuan in 2026. The wind power demand drove growth. In the construction and automotive sectors, projects like Guangde Hengtong Copper and Chujiang New Materials focused on new - energy applications, with stable demand. However, in the consumer electronics - related fields, air - conditioner exports were affected by the Middle - East conflict, with a reduction of over 500,000 units. The willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices increased [2][42][43]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory decreased from 324,289 tons on March 17 to 318,624 tons on March 18, a decrease of 1.75%. The SHFE inventory increased from 330,375 tons on March 17 to 334,100 tons on March 18, an increase of 1.13%. The COMEX inventory decreased slightly, showing a differentiated inventory trend [2][44]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the copper futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillating pattern. On the supply side, the supply of recycled copper is tight, but the import expectation increases, and the high inventory restricts the upward movement. On the demand side, power investment provides support, but some exports are frustrated. In terms of macro - sentiment, the decline in copper price stimulates inventory replenishment, but the overall attractiveness is limited. The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 98,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [3][45].