Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the upward trend of copper prices in 2026, with SHFE copper closing at 103,920 CNY/ton and LME copper at 13,296 USD/ton, reflecting increases of 1.55% and 2.56% respectively [1][15]. - Supply-demand dynamics remain tight, with expectations for copper prices to continue rising due to supply constraints and improving demand [4]. Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 50.4% compared to February 12, 2026, while LME copper inventory rose by 5.0% [2][23]. - As of February 27, 2026, global inventory across major exchanges totaled 1.247 million tons, up 48.3% from February 13, 2026 [2][23]. Supply - China's electrolytic copper production in February 2026 was 1.1424 million tons, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 8.0% year-on-year [3][59]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 2,689 CNY/ton, down 410 CNY/ton from February 13, 2026 [2][53]. Demand - Cable manufacturing utilization rate increased by 11.5 percentage points week-on-week, reaching 27.72% [3][70]. - Air conditioning production for March to May 2026 is projected to decrease by 6.1%, followed by increases of 2.9% and 4.9% in subsequent months [3][70]. Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 46% compared to February 13, 2026, with a total of 204,000 contracts [4][29]. - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum for investment [4].

2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 沪铜主力合约 夜盘收盘价 CU2604 102550 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价下跌 0.4 7%。沪铜次主力合约 CU2605 夜盘收于 102870 元/吨，跌幅 0.42%。截止北京时间 2026-02-27 06:00，COMEX 铜主力合约 HGK26E 收盘价为 6.025 美元/磅（按汇率 换算为 铜主力合约 6.8397 90849 元/吨），较上一交易日下跌 0.31%。LME CA03M E 收于 13259 美元/吨（按汇率 6.8397 换算为 90688 元/吨），跌幅 0.68%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色 | 铜 | 震荡偏多 | 【重要资讯】 1、2 月 26 日，财联社资讯，日本半导体材料厂 Resonac 宣布自 3 月 1 日起上调涨铜 箔基板（CCL）、黏合胶片等印刷电路板（PCB）材料售价，涨幅达 30%以上。 2、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，1月份，制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落；偏多。 2、基差：现货102000，基差-670，贴水期货；偏空。 3、库存：2月26日铜库存增3950至253600吨，上期所铜库存较上周增23564吨至272475吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高，目前高位 波动，短期震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：高铜价影响下游需求复苏 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日高开高走，日内偏强。舆论普遍认为，在伊朗问题上，美国已从"战略威 慑阶段"进入"可执行选项阶段"，也意味着军事选项已不再停留于理论层面，而是开 始进入到可以随时启动的决策区间。基本面来看，假期间上游冶炼负荷相对正常，后续 铜供应以高位稳定为主，SMM 数据显示，1 月产量较预期多 1.57 万吨，预计 2 月回归正 常。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜预计产量环比减少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。下游工厂尚未开启完全的复产复工，整体市场交投活跃度低，同时由于假期期间 下游需求端暂停，上游产量正常，故铜社会库存量大幅累积增加。关注后续日内瓦谈判 带来的后续形势的研判，警惕避险情绪造成市场的波动，就铜来看，基本面复苏仍需时 间，高位铜价抑制下游需求量，高库存压制上方空间，但紧供应及有色整体的支撑之 下，铜价易涨难跌。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需 ...

该行指出，COMEX-LME套利动态已不再是推动价格进一步上涨的重要因素，理由是2026年初套利定价走弱，且近期流入美国关联LME仓库的金属量持续 强劲，短期内这一趋势可能延续。 2月24日（周二），花旗（Citi）周二表示，其对铜价短期走势持看涨观点，预计未来三个月内铜价有望升至每吨14,000美元。 该行指出，铜价短期下行风险有限，理由是预期实物和金融市场的逢低买盘将保持强劲，且未来数月中国将迎来季节性库存消耗。 受市场情绪改善及最大金属消费国中国需求走强推动，伦敦金属交易所（LME）指标三个月期铜合约周二触及2月12日以来最高价。中国市场在假期后重新 开放。 花旗补充称："我们对2026年铜均价的基本预测保持在每吨13,000美元不变，我们认为这一价格水平足以使今年全球铜市基本平衡。" 花旗表示，有限度的美伊核协议或短期局势缓和将提振铜等风险敏感资产。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产 ...

格隆汇2月25日｜花旗周二表示，短期内对铜价持看涨态度，预计未来三个月铜价将升至每吨14,000美 元。该行指出，铜价短期下行风险有限，理由是预期实物和金融市场的逢低买盘将保持强劲，且未来数 月中国将迎来季节性库存消耗。受市场情绪改善及最大金属消费国中国需求走强推动，指标三个月期铜 周二触及2月12日以来最高价。该行维持2026年铜均价13,000美元/吨的基本预测，称该价格水平足以使 今年全球铜市基本平衡。花旗表示，有限度的美伊核协议或短期局势缓和将提振铜等风险敏感资产。该 行指出，COMEX-LME套利动态已不再是推动价格进一步上涨的重要因素，理由是2026年初套利定价 走弱，且近期流入美国关联LME仓库的金属量持续强劲，短期内这一趋势可能延续。 ...

Copper Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 102,000 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the spot premium/discount widening. The discount of premium copper deepened to -25 yuan/ton, that of flat copper to -70 yuan/ton, and that of wet-process copper to -130 yuan/ton. The LME (0-3) discount remained at -76.1 dollars/ton [1][35]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: As the Spring Festival holiday approached, market trading was light, and the position volume shrank significantly. On February 10, the LME position decreased by 1,683 lots to 325,291 lots, while the SHFE inventory increased to 192,100 tons. The trading volume contracted due to the completion of downstream enterprises' stockpiling and logistics restrictions, weakening overall market liquidity [1][37]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, Codelco's copper production in Chile increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 181,400 tons, but Escondida's output decreased by 16.5% to 111,500 tons, and Collahuasi's output decreased by 12.1% to 36,200 tons. North American copper mine projects are expanding. Supported by Chinese policies, the smelting end saw an increase in the arrival of goods due to the opening of the import window, resulting in an overall loose supply [2][40]. - **Demand Side**: The demand in the power sector was strong, but the traditional sectors were weak. The home appliance, construction, and consumer electronics sectors were affected by the Spring Festival. Overall, demand was differentiated, showing a seasonal decline before the festival [2][44]. - **Inventory Side**: Global inventories continued to accumulate. On February 11, 2026, the LME inventory increased to 178,897 tons, the SHFE inventory to 192,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory to 591,459 short tons. The inventory in the United States increased fivefold to 534,000 metric tons, intensifying the tightness of the circulable supply, but the increase in exchange inventories alleviated the pressure [2][41]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The driving factors include the accumulation of inventories on the supply side alleviating the tightness, but the limited increase in North American projects. On the demand side, the power investment support and the post - festival restocking expectation offset the weakness in home appliances. The macro sentiment is neutral to optimistic (China's CPI rose moderately by 0.2%, and the enhanced risk appetite pushed up the LME price). The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 102,000 yuan/ton [3][47].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a cooling industrial economic activity in China before the Spring Festival, strong buying interest persists, leading to a potential increase in copper prices [1][2] - The latest closing price for London copper is reported at $13,239 per ton, with a rise of $139, or 1.08%, and trading volume increased significantly [1] - Domestic copper futures opened higher and traded around 102,280 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 0.35% [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context shows that the U.S. labor market is stabilizing, with non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, which typically would pressure copper prices but has not deterred bullish sentiment [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing a subdued trading atmosphere due to the upcoming holiday, but supply disruptions and a tight copper concentrate market continue to support prices [2] - It is anticipated that copper prices will consolidate before the holiday, with support levels between 98,000 and 103,000 yuan per ton, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The raw material side disturbances support the copper price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 102,180 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 102,190 with a night - session increase of 0.01%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,239 with a daily increase of 1.06% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 193,391, a decrease of 14,245 from the previous day, and the open interest was 568,047, an increase of 2,458. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 26,491, an increase of 14,242, and the open interest was 326,000, an increase of 893 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 178,897, an increase of 12,958. The LME copper inventory was 192,100, an increase of 3,000, and the注销仓单比 was 11.69%, an increase of 1.39% [1] - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads such as LME copper basis, bonded - area bill premiums, etc., with different changes compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US January non - farm payroll report was overall strong, which dampened the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and traders postponed the expected time of the first interest - rate cut from June to July [1] - **Industry**: Glencore Canada was forced to suspend major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, and the investment in the Canadian copper refinery would be scaled back in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile. Harmony Gold said its newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two - year renovation. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promoted central enterprises to actively expand effective investment in computing power [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] for the intensity value, indicating a certain degree of upward trend [3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a complex and volatile situation influenced by macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, with future price movements remaining uncertain [2][3][6] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent positive macroeconomic signals, including rising U.S. stock markets and a declining dollar index, have provided support for copper prices, making it more attractive to overseas buyers [2] - The continuous rise in international oil prices has also boosted market risk appetite, potentially increasing demand for industrial metals like copper [2] Supply Side Challenges - Significant supply disruptions in overseas copper mines have led to a reduction of nearly 1 million tons in annual supply, accounting for 4% of global copper supply, with bleak prospects for recovery [3] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are low, around -50 USD per dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in supply, although refined copper production has increased due to previous high copper prices [3] Demand Dynamics - Demand in China is mixed, with a weakening outlook as buyers extend their holiday breaks and reduce spot purchases, leading to a rise in inventory levels [4] - However, as the Chinese New Year approaches, some downstream enterprises are showing increased pre-holiday stocking demand, providing some support for copper prices [4] Inventory Trends - LME registered copper inventories have increased by 25% to 184,300 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have surged over 60% to 248,911 tons, exerting downward pressure on copper prices [5] - The increase in inventory is partly seasonal, and as the holiday period ends, there is potential for inventory to be gradually digested [5] Future Price Outlook - The short-term outlook for copper prices is expected to be volatile, with a potential for upward movement as downstream demand is anticipated to recover post-holiday [6] - Long-term demand prospects for copper remain strong due to global economic recovery and growth in sectors like renewable energy, suggesting opportunities for investors [6]