铜月报 铜价可能以高位震荡趋势运行 内容提要 美联储上半年降息概率不高 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 美联储古尔斯比表示，利率可以下调，但不想在通胀缓解之前就 提前大幅降息；如果通胀回落，利率今年可以降更多；就业市场稳定， 经济一直稳健。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储到3月降息25个基点 的概率为4%，维持利率不变的概率为96.0%。美联储到4月累计降息25 个基点的概率17.3%，维持利率不变的概率为82.1%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为0.6%。到6月累计降息25个基点的概率为43%。 精废铜价差持续维持高位 中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）小幅上升，但维持低 位。中国精炼铜产量快速增长，同比增速上升。精废铜价差持续维持 高位。铜材产量同比下降。 沪铜库存大幅累库 沪铜库存大幅累库，LME铜库存持续增长，COMEX铜继续累库。综 合来看，铜价可能以高位震荡行情为主。套利机会有限。期权合约建 议观望为主。 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数据变化超预期，铜需求变 化超预期。 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨 ...

2026年02月27日 (原油) gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 昨日原油盘面剧烈震荡,从波动归因看,行情完全受消息面主导。盘中因伊朗强硬表态一度暴力拉 升,随后阿曼称谈判取得重大进展,油价快速回吐涨幅。伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示双方虽然仍存在一 些分歧，但在许多问题上的意见已经趋于一致。双方将在下周进行技术性会谈。此外，有消息称美 军最大航母福特26号已离开位于希腊南部克里特岛苏达湾的海军基地,前往中东。 美伊谈判核心分 歧仍存,潜在冲突隐患难消,市场对地缘消息仍极度敏感,油价波动率预计维持高位。 隔夜伦铜尾盘收低，沪铜夜盘窄幅震荡，国内铜价交投区间稳定在密集均线上方。英伟达季度业绩 超预期,但关联股价短线再遇抛压。特朗普访华前,倾向对中国关税态度相对缓和,需求端主要关 注关税相对低执行期，对国内出口的影响。节后首周，内外铜库存延续增量势头，国内SMM社库增至 53.17万吨，伦铜新奥尔良仓库持续入库。SMM现铜昨报101795元，上海贴水235元。市场仍可能权 衡节后旺季消费强度，但当下全球交易所铜显性库存高。建议延续近月合约跨期反套，单边铜价仍 认为有波段调整以吸引买盘的可 ...

证券日报网讯2月26日，西部矿业（601168）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司冶炼铜原料以国 内自有矿山为主，自给率较高，不会受到海外供应风险的扰动，在原料稳定性、成本可控性及市场行情 应对方面具有一定优势。在铜价上行周期的背景下，有助于公司在复杂的市场环境中保持稳健运营并提 升盈利能力。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：高铜价影响下游需求复苏 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 【行情分析】 沪铜今日高开高走，日内偏强。舆论普遍认为，在伊朗问题上，美国已从"战略威 慑阶段"进入"可执行选项阶段"，也意味着军事选项已不再停留于理论层面，而是开 始进入到可以随时启动的决策区间。基本面来看，假期间上游冶炼负荷相对正常，后续 铜供应以高位稳定为主，SMM 数据显示，1 月产量较预期多 1.57 万吨，预计 2 月回归正 常。2 月 SMM 中国电解铜预计产量环比减少 3.58 万吨，降幅为 3.04%，同比上升 8.06%。需求方面，截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。下游工厂尚未开启完全的复产复工，整体市场交投活跃度低，同时由于假期期间 下游需求端暂停，上游产量正常，故铜社会库存量大幅累积增加。关注后续日内瓦谈判 带来的后续形势的研判，警惕避险情绪造成市场的波动，就铜来看，基本面复苏仍需时 间，高位铜价抑制下游需求量，高库存压制上方空间，但紧供应及有色整体的支撑之 下，铜价易涨难跌。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需 ...

Core Insights - The refined copper industry in China is experiencing steady development driven by policies promoting clean production, recycling, and industrial upgrades, transitioning towards safety, green practices, and high-end development [1][5][6] - The industry is characterized by a supply-demand gap, with production expected to reach 14.72 million tons and demand at 17.66 million tons by 2025, indicating a narrowing but still existing supply-demand imbalance [1][8][9] - Future trends in the industry will focus on raw material restructuring, technological upgrades, and optimization of the industrial landscape to achieve high-quality development [1][10][12] Industry Overview - Refined copper is a high-purity copper product obtained through various refining processes, essential for electrification and the new energy era [1][3] - The industry is segmented based on refining processes, product forms, and raw material sources, including primary and recycled copper [3][4] Policy Analysis - China's refined copper industry is heavily influenced by a comprehensive policy framework aimed at green transformation, recycling, and industrial upgrades, with multiple initiatives launched to support these goals [5][6] Industry Chain Analysis - The upstream segment focuses on copper ore mining and scrap copper recycling, with a high dependency on foreign copper ore resources exceeding 78% [6][8] - The midstream sector, while globally leading in smelting capacity, faces profit pressures due to international processing fees and raw material costs [6][8] - The downstream demand is characterized by traditional sectors stabilizing and emerging sectors driving growth, with the power industry being the largest consumer [7][8] Current Development Status - China's refined copper production is projected to reach 14.72 million tons by 2025, marking a 10.4% increase, maintaining its position as the world's largest producer [8] - The demand for refined copper is expected to grow to approximately 17.66 million tons by 2025, with emerging sectors like new energy and AI data centers becoming key growth drivers [8][9] Price Trends - Global refined copper prices have remained high, with LME copper futures rising from $8,801 per ton at the beginning of 2025 to $12,496.5 per ton by year-end, reflecting a 41.99% annual increase [9] Future Development Trends - The industry will see a restructuring of raw material supply, with recycled copper becoming a core component, supported by policies promoting circular economy practices [10][11] - Technological innovation will drive the industry towards high-end transformation, focusing on low-energy smelting and high-performance copper materials [12] - The industry structure will continue to optimize, enhancing supply chain resilience and concentration, with a focus on integrating small and medium enterprises into specialized niches [13]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that despite the expected decline in processing fees (TC/RC) by 2026, Jiangxi Copper's copper smelting business is anticipated to remain profitable due to rising sulfuric acid prices [1] Group 1 - The expected completion of the acquisition of Solgold is projected to drive long-term profit growth starting in 2028 [1] - Citigroup has raised the target price for Jiangxi Copper's H-shares from HKD 39.8 to HKD 54.1, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，尽管2026年预期加工费(TC/RC)走低，但考量硫酸价格上涨，预 期江西铜业股份(00358)的铜冶炼业务仍能维持盈利。若收购SolGold交易顺利完成，预计将自2028年起 推动长期盈利增长。该行将江西铜业H股目标价由39.8港元上调至54.1港元，按现金流折现率及公平市 账率作估值，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - The company plans to hold a board meeting on March 26, 2026, to review and approve the annual performance announcement for the year ending December 31, 2025, and to propose a final dividend if applicable [2][6] Group 2: Project Advancement - The company continues to layout resource projects through overseas acquisitions and collaborations. The full acquisition of the Cascabel copper-gold project from SolGold and partnerships in the Ainak copper mine and North Peru mining projects are expected to progress, potentially increasing self-produced copper output and resource reserves. The company adheres to a "resource-first" strategy, which is anticipated to enhance long-term resource security [3][7] Group 3: Industry Policies and Environment - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has stated that it will solidly advance the governance of copper smelting capacity, having already halted over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects. This policy may optimize the industry supply-demand structure and provide potential support for leading enterprises. The association will continue to cooperate with relevant departments to strictly control new capacity [4][8]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 2026年02月11日 商 品 研 究 | 期货研究 | | | --- | --- | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 48 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 49 | | 丙烯：现货持稳，基差收敛 | 49 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 52 | | 燃料油：窄幅震荡，短期波动缩小 | 53 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差仍处低位 | 53 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 54 | | 短纤：短期震荡市20260211 | 57 | | 瓶片：短期震荡市20260211 | 57 | | 胶版印刷纸：节前观望 | 58 | | 纯苯：偏强震荡 | 60 | | 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 | 61 | | 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | 61 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹震荡 | 63 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 63 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 65 | | 白糖：关注低基差机会 | 66 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260211 | 67 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 69 | | 生猪：旺季 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and investment suggestions for each commodity [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][8][9]. - **Silver**: The price is expected to fall from a high level, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][8][9]. - **Platinum**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29][30]. - **Palladium**: The price is expected to oscillate within a box, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][13]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][16]. - **Lead**: Due to losses in the recycling sector, attention is paid to the lower - level support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Technical repair is underway, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the departure of funds before the holiday, the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesia, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][44]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday spot transactions, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand expectation is weakening, and the price is oscillating and falling, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][61]. - **Coking Coal**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][62]. - **Log**: The demand expectation is poor, and the price is falling, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][65]. - **Para - Xylene**: It is in a unilateral oscillating market, and the month - spread is weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **PTA**: It is in a range - bound market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **MEG**: Interval operation is recommended, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][81]. - **LLDPE**: Spot transactions have stagnated, and funds are seeking risk - aversion, showing an oscillating market, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][84]. - **PP**: The valuation repair is limited, and the weekly export orders are declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][87]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][90]. - **Pulp**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][100]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][102]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate with support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][108]. - **Styrene**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][111]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][114]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand remains tight, and the upward driving force is weakening, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **PVC**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price rebounded at night, and the short - term weakness was temporarily alleviated, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the opening guidance of the near - month contract; a light long position can be established in the 7 - 9 positive spread, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][130]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][145]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][149]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and the price is supported by energy prices, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Meal**: It may oscillate following the US soybean, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][158]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong, with a trend intensity of +1 [2][158]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][161]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][164]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][168]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][173]. - **Live Pig**: The peak season is confirmed not to be prosperous, and the release of the backlog has begun, with a trend intensity of - 2 [2][176]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][181].