Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut process may be postponed, and copper prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][34][36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In March, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures decreased significantly, with the price range between 91,500 yuan/ton and 104,870 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Fed Rate - cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignores" the impact of energy shocks. His speech eased market concerns about Fed rate hikes, and traders began to bet on a possible rate cut this year. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike in April is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.4%. By June, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 92.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike is 2.5% [10][34] 2.2 China's PMI Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and new order index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were below the critical point [13][15] 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Copper Smelter Processing Fees - As of March 30, 2026, China's copper smelter refining fee was - 7 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 69.2 dollars/kiloton. The copper processing fee has been at a low level. As of January 2026, the ICSG's global copper concentrate production was 1,919 thousand tons, the capacity was 2,498 thousand tons, and the utilization rate was 76.8% [19] 3.2 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread - As of March 31, 2026, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 95,580 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 85,600 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1,420 yuan/ton. From a seasonal perspective, the current spread is at an average level compared to the past five years [24] 4. Inventory - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 359,135 tons, a decrease of 51,986 tons from the previous week. The LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons, an increase of 425 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 18.81%. As of March 30, 2026, the COMEX copper inventory was 588,121 tons, a decrease of 798 tons from the previous trading day. The Shanghai bonded area inventory was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week [27] 5. Outlook 5.1 Price Trend Factor Analysis - The impact factors of copper price include US policy (★★★, Fed rate - cut may be postponed), China's policy (★★, some economic data in China are rising), supply (★★★, refined copper processing fees are at a very low level; ★★, scrap - to - refined copper price spread returns to normal), and inventory (★★, COMEX copper continues to accumulate significantly; ★★, Shanghai copper inventory decreases) [33] 5.2 Forecast - Overall, copper prices are likely to show a high - level volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [34][35][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the TC spot index of copper concentrate continues to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a strong cost - support for copper prices. The capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak season and the decline of copper prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises has been boosted, and they are stocking up at low prices. The inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and improved demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the green column is slightly expanding. The suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 95,340 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 12,238 dollars/ton, up 43 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 185,749 hands, up 479 hands; the position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai copper is - 61,409 hands, down 6,271 hands. LME copper inventory is 362,600 tons, up 2,350 tons; the warehouse - receipt cancellation of LME copper is 67,600 tons, up 4,925 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 221,261 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 588,121 short tons, down 798 short tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 95,600 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 95,735 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER): bonded warehouse price is 68.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 65 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 82.55 dollars/ton, down 11.69 dollars [2]. 2. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 dollars/kiloton, down 1.53 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 86,000 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,700 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. 3. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,940 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.9 million tons, up 0.3 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the tax - refund for outbound tourists 2.0, introduce measures to expand and upgrade commodity consumption, and promote the continuous warming of "shopping in China". It will also promote the development of the automotive aftermarket and support the development of leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping in qualified areas. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% from January, and the market growth rate is gradually returning. - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, promote the reform of automobile circulation and consumption, and implement a quality - improvement and people - benefiting action for service consumption. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact of the energy shock caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran. But he also warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by. - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position. The Middle East conflict may bring a major supply shock, which will both push up price pressure and suppress economic activity. He implied that the Fed's most appropriate response at present is to take no action for the time being. - Fed Governor Milan continued to call for interest rate cuts, saying that policymakers should ignore the current rise in energy prices unless there are signs of long - term impact. Milan still believes that interest rates can be cut by 100 basis points this year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a stage of sufficient supply and warming consumption, with industrial inventory being depleted. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0345. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars slightly converge. The suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 92,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,640 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,717 dollars/ton, a decrease of 212.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 204,413 lots, an increase of 3,232 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 63,017 lots, an increase of 8,236 lots. The LME copper inventory is 342,350 tons, an increase of 6,925 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 411,121 tons, a decrease of 22,337 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 45,675 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 274,115 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 588,704 short tons, a decrease of 100 short tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,005 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 93,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,705 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 53.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 4 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan. The LME copper spot - forward spread (0 - 3) is - 94.77 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.35 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, a decrease of 31.28 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 67.32 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 6.93 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 86,100 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 170 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 86,800 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 170 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 63,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 79,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, an increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.211 billion yuan, a decrease of 731.76 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, an increase of 415,345,500 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 21.32%, an increase of 1.13%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 34.17%, an increase of 0.34%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 24.74%, a decrease of 0.0157. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.2, a decrease of 0.0345 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang attended the opening ceremony of the China Development Forum 2026 and delivered a keynote speech, emphasizing China's competitive advantages in relevant industries and the importance of fair competition. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng gave a speech on "China's High - quality Development and Global Economic Rebalancing", stating that the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy stance. Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with the US - China Business Council delegation, hoping to promote Sino - US economic and trade relations. Minister of Finance Lan Fuan said that fiscal policy will focus more on investing in people and promoting consumption, with measures such as issuing 250 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and setting up a 100 - billion - yuan special fund [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the narrative surrounding the Iran conflict in the commodity market is predominantly focused on oil prices, but it also highlights the significant impact on other commodities, particularly fertilizers and natural gas [3][4]. - Fertilizers are crucial for global food supply, with synthetic fertilizers supporting approximately half of the world's population. A complete halt in synthetic fertilizer production could only sustain about 4 billion people, while the current global population exceeds 8 billion [4][5]. - Natural gas is a core raw material for fertilizer production, with approximately 36 mmBTU of natural gas required to produce one ton of ammonia, which is then converted into urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer [5][7]. Group 2 - Fertilizer plants are typically located near abundant and cheap natural gas supplies, such as in the Middle East and Russia. The transportation costs of natural gas are prohibitively high, making local production more economical [7]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would severely disrupt the fertilizer market, as there are no strategic reserves for fertilizers, unlike oil. Approximately 45% of urea and 20% of ammonia are exported from countries along the Persian Gulf [7][8]. - The article discusses the limited alternatives for fertilizer supply, with China being a key player. If China resumes exports, prices may decrease; otherwise, they could rise to the next cost level [8][9]. Group 3 - Farmers in major agricultural countries like the US, Australia, India, and Thailand face tough choices due to fertilizer shortages, which could impact crop yields and food prices, thereby influencing inflation [9]. - The article outlines four potential responses from farmers: reducing fertilizer use, switching to crops that require less nitrogen, mixing different fertilizers, or ceasing cultivation altogether [9]. - The article also highlights the differences in the natural gas market compared to oil, noting that natural gas lacks a unified global price due to high transportation costs, leading to fragmented regional markets [12][13]. Group 4 - The attack on the Shah gas field in the UAE, a significant source of sulfur, could further impact fertilizer production, as sulfur is a key ingredient in sulfuric acid used in fertilizers [19]. - The article suggests that the complexities of the commodity market mean that disruptions in one area can have cascading effects on others, illustrating the interconnectedness of global supply chains [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates weakly, with an increase in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index hits a new low again, and the expectation of tight ore still supports copper prices. The smelter's resumption of work and the utilization rate gradually recover, and copper production may increase significantly month - on - month. Upstream holders hold firm on prices when selling. Although the copper price on the disk has corrected, the spot copper still maintains a relatively firm premium. Downstream enterprises conduct bargain - hunting restocking operations as the copper price on the disk adjusts, and consumption generally remains stable. Domestic copper inventories are still in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, but the inventory accumulation rate may slow down due to the arrival of the downstream traditional consumption peak season. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of increasing supply and stable demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0932, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 94,420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,170.00 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,074.50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 321.00 US dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 30.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.00 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 203,328.00 lots, an increase of 29,107.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 76,315.00 lots, an increase of 2,653.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 334,100.00 tons, an increase of 3,725.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 433,458.00 tons, an increase of 8,313.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 43,625.00 tons, a decrease of 50.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 306,380.00 tons, a decrease of 2,856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 588,677.00 short tons, an increase of 313.00 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 95,615.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,375.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 95,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,455.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 45.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 1,195.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 795.00 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 107.22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.25 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 85,930.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 3,460.00 yuan; the copper concentrate price in Yunnan is 86,630.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 3,460.00 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 2,100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200.00 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 1,700.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan. The refined copper output is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000.00 tons, a decrease of 60,000.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 66,640.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950.00 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 81,550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 950.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,130.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan, an increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 961.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 731.7614 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 ten - thousand pieces, an increase of 415,345.50 ten - thousand pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.11%, an increase of 6.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 33.89%, an increase of 1.31%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 22.67%, an increase of 0.0211; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, a decrease of 0.0932 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed Governor Milan opposes the decision and advocates a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The statement indicates that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace, inflation remains high to some extent, and there is high uncertainty in the economic outlook, especially regarding the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy. The dot plot shows only one rate cut in 2026 - 2027 each, with a more conservative rate - cut path, highlighting the Fed's cautious stance. - The Federal Reserve raises inflation and economic growth expectations, reflecting confidence in economic resilience. Fed Chairman Powell denies that the US economy is in a stagflation state, emphasizes that the policy stance is appropriate, and that rate cuts require continuous progress in inflation. He also mentions that if there is no progress in inflation, there will be no rate cuts. Most people do not consider rate hikes as the basic expectation, but the possibility of a rate hike is mentioned. - Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian says that the leaders' diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in China - US relations, and the two sides will continue to communicate on President Trump's visit to China. - The Federal Reserve raises the core PCE inflation expectations for the next two years. The expected median core PCE inflation at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 is 2.7%, 2.2%, and 2.0% respectively, compared with 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0% in December last year. The Federal Reserve also raises the GDP growth rate expectations. The expected median GDP growth rate at the end of 2026, 2027, and 2028 is 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively, compared with 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% in December last year. - US Labor Department data shows that the US PPI rose 0.7% month - on - month in February, far exceeding the expected 0.3%; the year - on - year increase reached 3.4%, a one - year high, while the expected increase was 2.9% [2].

Policy Developments - The National People's Congress plans to amend several laws, including the bidding and procurement laws, to support the establishment of a unified national market[2] - A negative list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies will be established to clarify prohibited subsidy scenarios for local governments[2] - The State Council is focusing on reducing production capacity in industries such as steel and refining, while optimizing the layout of industries like ethylene and paraxylene[2] Technology Industry - The article in "Qiushi" emphasizes the need for high-quality development of the marine economy, with a focus on innovation and the development of emerging marine industries[3] - The government plans to support high-tech enterprises and small and medium-sized technology firms through tax incentives and special funds[3] Foreign Trade - Recent U.S. trade investigations against multiple economies, including China, cite "overcapacity" and "forced labor" as reasons for the inquiries[3] - The Chinese government is analyzing the implications of these investigations and is prepared to take necessary measures to protect its interests[3] Economic Measures - The government plans to issue 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support key projects, including technology self-reliance and ecological protection[14] - A total of 7,550 billion yuan will be allocated for central budget investments, with a focus on timely project execution[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure and experiencing a correction due to factors such as the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, the reversal of the global monetary easing expectation, high inventory, and slow start of the peak demand season. It is recommended to wait for market sentiment to stabilize. In the long - term, the outlook for copper is still positive due to factors like tight copper ore supply, the explosion of green copper demand, national strategic resource security premiums, and intensified Sino - US competition. The focus ranges for Shanghai copper are [97500, 103500] yuan/ton, and for London copper are [12500, 13500] US dollars/ton [8][88] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Analysis - Trump's TACO fails, the Middle - East situation deteriorates, and oil prices soar again. The US non - farm employment data is weak, inflation concerns intensify, and the global monetary easing expectation is reversed. The US dollar index breaks through the 100 mark. The US launches a 301 trade investigation again, and China and the US start the sixth round of trade negotiations. The domestic two - sessions end, and the start of the peak demand season is delayed [8][19][20] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper ore supply**: Iran is not a core copper concentrate producer. Chile's Codelco's El Teniente mine has low production due to an accident, and Peruvian mines face production suspension risks. Glencore's Australian smelter may go on strike. In February 2026, China imported 2310000 physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a 11.97% decrease from the previous month and a 5.84% increase year - on - year [47] - **Copper concentrate processing fees**: The copper concentrate TC is at a low level, with the latest at - 57.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.2 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The copper concentrate spot smelting is at a loss of 2599.76 yuan/ton, while the long - term contract smelting has a profit of 244.79 yuan/ton [48] - **Electrolytic copper production**: In February 2026, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 36900 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 3.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase by 52800 tons to 1.1952 million tons in March [49] 3.2.2 Demand - **Traditional fields**: The real estate new construction area shows no improvement, and orders for copper tubes and copper wires have decreased by 30% year - on - year. The home appliance industry is cautious in production scheduling. The power grid investment is expected to contribute an incremental demand of over 300000 tons [53][54] - **Emerging fields**: The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down. The AI data center has become a new growth point, but its total proportion is still small [53][54] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of March 12, the domestic copper social inventory was 573900 tons, with a cumulative increase of 1700 tons from the previous month. The SHFE copper inventory was 433400 tons, a increase of 8313 tons from the previous month. The LME copper inventory increased to 311800 tons, a increase of 27500 tons from the previous month. The COMEX copper inventory was 592200 tons, a decrease of 5695 tons from the previous month [55] 3.3 Market Performance - **Price performance**: As of March 13, the latest price of LME copper was 12870 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.01% and an annual increase of 3.00%. The COMEX copper main contract was 580 US dollars, with a weekly decrease of 0.66% and an annual increase of 1.84%. The Shanghai copper main contract was 100310 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.73% and an annual increase of 2.11% [28] - **Price difference and basis**: As of March 12, the COMEX - LME copper price difference was - 119 US dollars/ton. The LME copper spot (0 - 3) was at a discount of 102.11 US dollars/ton, and (3 - 15) was at a discount of 149.63 US dollars/ton. As of March 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot in South China had a premium of 100 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai had a premium of 70 yuan/ton. The Yangshan copper premium was 40 - 50 US dollars/ton [29] - **Speculation and positions**: As of March 6, the net long position of LME copper speculative funds was 28612 lots, a decrease of 29% from the previous month. The net long position of COMEX copper speculation was 57681 lots, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month. As of March 13, the position of the Shanghai copper main contract was 190911 lots (- 2.44%), and the trading volume was 85149 lots (- 32.97%) [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. As of March 13, it closed at 100,310 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.73%. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. In March, production may reach a record high. The decline in copper prices led to an increase in new orders from downstream and an increase in production starts. The accumulation of domestic copper inventories slowed down but remained at a high level. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices. Overall, copper prices are under pressure [5]. - The supply - side shows that the shortage at the mine end persists, and the spot TC of copper concentrates has hit a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. On the demand side, the decline in copper prices has led to an increase in the start - up rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry has maintained a high start - up rate. The inventory situation is that the accumulation of domestic copper inventories has slowed down, LME inventories continue to accumulate, and COMEX inventories continue to decline. Considering the geopolitical situation and inventory levels, copper prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies 3.1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. As of March 13, it closed at 100,310 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.73%. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. In March, production may reach a record high. The decline in copper prices led to an increase in new orders from downstream and an increase in production starts. The accumulation of domestic copper inventories slowed down but remained at a high level. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices [5]. 3.1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 13, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.17%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 60.02 US dollars/ton, hitting a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase in March [9][30]. - Demand: In February, the start - up rates of copper foil, copper strip and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98% and 22.78% respectively. The start - up rate of the copper foil industry was much higher than the same period in previous years. From March 6th to March 12th, the start - up rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 72.92%, a month - on - month increase of 10.45 percentage points. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the daily new order volume increased exponentially [9][33]. - Inventory: As of March 13, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96%. As of March 12, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country was 573,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57% compared with March 5th. As of March 13, the LME copper inventory was 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.67%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05% [10][36]. 3.1.3 Strategy Suggestions - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern of mines continues, and the spot TC in the copper concentrate market has fallen slightly to - 60.02 US dollars/ton, remaining at a low level. Domestic post - holiday consumption has exceeded market expectations, and inventory decline has occurred earlier than expected. Downstream enterprise demand continues to recover, and there is still room for improvement in subsequent demand. However, high overseas inventories have further suppressed market sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor the duration of the Middle East war and the progress of inventory reduction. If the Iran conflict continues and crude oil prices rise further, copper prices may face a downward risk, and it is expected that copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning Situation 3.2.1 Premium and Discount - Shanghai copper is in a contango structure. The decline in copper prices during the week stimulated the recovery of demand, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper continued to rise. Subsequently, the delivery logic dominated the market, and the spot of Shanghai copper maintained a premium. Currently, the LME copper inventory has increased significantly, the LME 0 - 3 discount has widened, and the New York copper spread has reversed [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of March 13, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 190,911 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 111,932 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 28.42%. As of March 6, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was - 1,386.08 lots, a week - on - week increase of 65.35%. As of March 10, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 47,676 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 13, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.17%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 60.02 US dollars/ton, hitting a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase in March [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Start - up - In February, the start - up rates of copper foil, copper strip and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98% and 22.78% respectively. The start - up rate of the copper foil industry was much higher than the same period in previous years. From March 6th to March 12th, the start - up rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 72.92%, a month - on - month increase of 10.45 percentage points. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the daily new order volume increased exponentially [33]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of March 13, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96%. As of March 12, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country was 573,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57% compared with March 5th. As of March 13, the LME copper inventory was 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.67%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05% [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals indicates that the spot index of copper concentrate TC has weakened again, and the copper production in Chile has declined, along with a decrease in copper ore exports to China. Coupled with the increase in transportation costs due to geopolitical conflicts, the tight supply trend of copper ore still exists, and the raw material cost support logic is relatively strong. On the supply side, smelters are gradually resuming production, with a good recovery in the operating rate. Additionally, the pre - holiday raw material inventory is relatively sufficient, so the domestic refined copper supply is expected to continue to grow. On the demand side, the resumption of work in the downstream is delayed compared to the smelting end. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream demand will gradually increase. Moreover, the decline in copper prices has also increased the downstream's sentiment of replenishing stocks at low prices to a certain extent. Due to the difference in the resumption rhythm of the supply and demand sides, the inventory of the copper industry continues to accumulate. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of rising supply and demand and inventory accumulation, and the industry outlook is generally positive. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.4, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0232, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are near the 0 axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 101,010.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,044.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.50 US dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 192,390.00 lots, a decrease of 271.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 80,570.00 lots, a decrease of 3217.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 312,075.00 tons, an increase of 10125.00 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 425,145.00 tons, an increase of 33616.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 36,300.00 tons, an increase of 13900.00 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 326,327.00 tons, a decrease of 2856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 592,489.00 short tons, a decrease of 1916.00 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 100,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 650.00 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 100,945.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 395.00 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 45.00 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 340.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 510.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 101.90 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.51 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons, an increase of 17.80 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 56.05 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 5.62 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 91,230.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 380.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 91,930.00 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 380.00 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,300.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, an increase of 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 315,793.95 tons, a decrease of 124206.05 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 68,290.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 6,395.02 billion yuan, an increase of 791.13 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 82,788.14 billion yuan, an increase of 4197.24 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 million pieces, an increase of 415345.50 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.99%, a decrease of 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 33.64%, a decrease of 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 21.42%, a decrease of 0.0115. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.40, an increase of 0.0232 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In February, the production and sales of automobiles were 167.2 million and 180.5 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% respectively, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 69.4 million and 76.5 million respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. The China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd, with the theme of "China in the 15th Five - Year Plan: High - quality Development and Co - creating New Opportunities". The annual meeting will hold 13 thematic seminars and several closed - door seminars around multiple topics such as macro - policies and high - quality development. The latest US inflation data shows that the seasonally adjusted CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. However, the market generally believes that the February data does not reflect the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to determine when the Fed will cut interest rates again. Leaders of the G7 countries had a phone call to discuss the latest situation in the Middle East and how to deal with its impact on the economy. UK Prime Minister Starmer said that countries should cooperate to deal with the economic impact of the conflict, welcomed the decision of IEA member countries to release strategic oil reserves, and reiterated the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. French President Macron said that under the current tense situation in the Middle East, G7 members should coordinate actions to promote the early resumption of smooth navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The energy price surge caused by the Iranian war is reshaping the policy expectations of the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said that the time for interest rate hikes "may be closer than many people think". ECB Vice - President Guindos warned that financial market volatility may magnify the impact on the economy, and price risks are skewed to the upside [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the better - than - expected US economic data have weakened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the lower support and try to go long on dips. In the long - term, the outlook for copper remains positive [8][9][86] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Economy - The geopolitical upheaval in Iran has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The US dollar index has strongly suppressed copper prices. The US ADP small non - farm payrolls data in February exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations for the year have been weakened. The US non - farm payrolls report for February is to be released, and different results may have different impacts on the US dollar and commodities [12][16] - In February 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.3 percentage points from January and below the boom - bust line. The GDP growth target for 2026 has been adjusted to a range of 4.5% - 5%. The monetary policy will be moderately loose, and emerging industries are key development directions, which is beneficial to the demand for copper [17] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper concentrate supply**: Although Iran's copper production accounts for a small proportion of the global total, the shipping blockage in the Strait of Hormuz and the spread of conflicts have increased the risk premium. Some mines in the Congo (DRC) and Peru have been affected by conflicts and natural disasters, affecting copper concentrate transportation. China's copper concentrate imports were high in 2025, but the growth rate slowed down at the beginning of 2026 [52] - **Copper concentrate processing fees**: The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, and the market expects the supply of copper concentrate in 2026 to be tight. The copper smelting industry is "anti - involution", and the industry association has proposed measures such as capacity control and resource reserve [53] - **Electrolytic copper production**: Affected by the shortage of copper ore raw materials and smelting maintenance, the electrolytic copper production in China in February decreased month - on - month. It is expected to increase in March [54] - **Import**: The import of unwrought copper and copper products in 2025 decreased year - on - year. The import of refined copper in December 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - **Scrap copper supply**: The growth of scrap copper supply has eased the pressure of raw material shortage, and the refined - scrap price difference has converged [54] 3.2.2 Demand - **Green copper demand**: Renewable energy systems have a much higher copper consumption than traditional power systems. Electric vehicles also have a large demand for copper [57] - **Automobile demand**: In January 2026, automobile sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle sales increased slightly year - on - year, and exports increased significantly [57] - **Power demand**: In 2025, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and the photovoltaic industry maintained a high - speed growth trend. In January 2026, China's new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity increased [57] - **Home appliance demand**: In January 2026, the production schedule of air - conditioners for domestic sales and exports increased year - on - year. In February, affected by policies and holidays, the production schedule decreased year - on - year [57] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of March 6, domestic and overseas copper inventories continued to accumulate. The LME copper inventory was at a nearly 11 - year high, and the COMEX copper inventory was still accumulating. The US may hoard copper for strategic reasons, and the effective circulation of copper inventory is expected to be tight [58] 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate widely and fall under pressure to the 100,000 - yuan mark. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" begins and the policies of the Two Sessions gradually take effect, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually ease, the market sentiment may gradually improve, and the macro and micro factors may resonate [9][86] - It is recommended to try to go long on dips. Industrial buyers should purchase according to demand and increase inventory replenishment on dips. Sellers should wait for a rebound and hedge against the upper pressure level. In the long - term, due to the shortage of copper mines, the explosion of green copper demand, the national strategic resource security premium, and the intensification of Sino - US competition, the long - term trend of copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [98,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [9][86]