来源：市场资讯 （来源：上林下夕） 1 全球铜供应链格局与中美欧博弈分析 1.1 资源分布高度集中与供应链脆弱性 全球铜矿资源分布呈现高度不均衡特征，智利、秘鲁、刚果（金）等前五大产铜国掌控着全球超过70% 的储量。根据最新数据，全球已探明铜矿储量约10亿吨，其中智利独占1.9亿吨（占比19.4%），澳大利 亚与秘鲁各占约1亿吨（合计20%）。这种地理集中性使得全球铜供应链极易受到地缘政治、气候事件 和贸易政策的冲击。 供应链的脆弱性在2025年凸显无遗。印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流停产，导致2025年全球供应减少约25 万-26万吨；智利El Teniente铜矿坍塌事故、刚果（金）卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿矿震等事件相继发生，合计 造成全球年度供应损失约80万吨，相当于全球年产量的3%。与此同时，全球铜矿石平均品位已从1991 年的0.8% 降至2025年的不足0.45%，智利埃斯康迪达铜矿的品位从1.6% 跌至0.6%，直接导致开采成本 翻倍。 表：2025年全球主要产铜国资源与产量分析 国家/地区铜矿储量（亿吨）占全球比重2025年预计产量（万吨）核心挑战智利1.9019.4%530-560水资源 短缺、 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the development and utilization of tungsten mining resources, producing ammonium paratungstate (APT), tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, thermal spray powder, and hard alloys, establishing a comprehensive production system across the tungsten industry chain [1] - The upstream business focuses on tungsten mining resource exploration and selection, with tungsten concentrate as the main product, and by-products including tin and copper concentrates sold externally [1] - The midstream segment produces various specifications of powder products, including ultra-fine, fine, medium, coarse, and ultra-coarse powders, catering to diverse customer needs [2] Group 2: Mining Operations - The company completed the filing of the tungsten resource reserve verification report for the Taoxikeng tungsten mine and the Dongfeng exploration rights area in the first half of 2025, and submitted the development and utilization plan for review [3] - Mining costs are influenced by geological conditions, ore grades, management levels, and labor costs, resulting in varying costs across different mines [3] Group 3: Raw Material Procurement - The company utilizes all self-produced tungsten concentrates and procures additional tungsten concentrates and APT externally to meet mid and downstream production needs [4] - Suppliers are evaluated based on management capabilities and technical levels, ensuring a stable supply of raw materials through long-term partnerships with qualified suppliers [4] Group 4: Business Performance and Market Outlook - The subsidiary, Ganzhou Aoketai, specializes in cutting tools for difficult-to-machine materials, with steady sales growth in 2025, and plans to expand competitive, high-value-added product capacity based on market demand [5] - Tungsten is a strategic mineral resource in China, subject to protective mining quotas, with tight supply and increasing downstream demand expected to stabilize tungsten concentrate prices in the future [5]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 28 日 铜：长单升水预期较高，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 86,990 | 0.46% | 87050 | 0.07% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,930 | -0.21% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 183,253 | -13,069 | 538,571 | 7,273 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,519 | -11,957 | 330,000 | 3,102 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 35,873 | -3,952 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 157,175 | 675 | 3.87% | -0.00% ...

Core Viewpoint - Jin Chengtong's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating strong operational performance and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Jin Chengtong achieved a revenue of 9.933 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.50% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.753 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60.37% [2]. Stock Market Activity - On November 28, Jin Chengtong's stock rose by 2.17%, reaching 63.43 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 114 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.29% [1]. - The company has seen a stock price increase of 76.93% year-to-date, with a 6.05% rise over the last five trading days [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 27.38% to 20,900, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 21.49% to 29,884 shares [2]. - The total cash dividends distributed by Jin Chengtong since its A-share listing amount to 768 million yuan, with 477 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Major Shareholders - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the second-largest circulating shareholder, holding 24.4684 million shares, an increase of 10.5752 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Southern CSI 500 ETF is a new entrant among the top ten circulating shareholders, holding 5.4639 million shares [3].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market has experienced a significant price increase, driven by tight supply of copper concentrate, rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and positive signals from US-China trade negotiations [1][4]. Group 1: Copper Price Movement - From September 24 to October 30, the main copper contract rose nearly 12%, surpassing 89,000 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high [1]. - Following a hawkish stance from Powell and increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts, copper prices have fluctuated between 85,000 and 88,000 yuan/ton since November [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The US government faced a historic shutdown due to the failure to pass the 2026 fiscal budget, delaying the release of key labor market data [2]. - The Federal Reserve implemented a "blind cut" in October without supporting data, and subsequent hawkish comments from Powell diminished expectations for a December rate cut [2][3]. - The end of the government shutdown in mid-November allowed the Labor Statistics Bureau to report a significant increase in September's non-farm employment, but the October report was not released, leading to uncertainty about the Fed's December decisions [2][3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tight supply of copper concentrate has worsened this year, with the treatment charge (TC) dropping from around $6 per dry ton at the beginning of the year to approximately -$42 per dry ton [4]. - Several mines have faced production disruptions, including a 25% year-on-year decline in output from Chile's Codelco and significant impacts from natural disasters and social unrest in Indonesia and Peru [4]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened, currently running between 7,500 and 8,500 yuan/ton, which has suppressed demand for refined copper products [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The probability of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains high, contributing to a more relaxed global liquidity environment [5]. - The ongoing tight supply of copper concentrate is expected to persist, potentially leading to coordinated production cuts by smelters to pressure mines to increase TC [5]. - While demand has weakened this year, the energy storage sector in 2026 is anticipated to boost demand for refined copper, suggesting a future supply-demand imbalance may widen [5].

Group 1 - Copper prices have been on the rise this year, with multiple domestic and international copper price indicators reaching historical highs, driven by various supporting factors [1][2] - China's annual refined copper consumption is approximately 15 million tons, while domestic copper production is only about 1.8 million tons, leading to a high dependency on imports exceeding 80% [2] - The current copper resource reserves in China have exceeded 40 million tons, showing a growth of over 50% since 2020, with recycled copper utilization also increasing significantly [3] Group 2 - The rapid development of emerging industries such as new energy and data centers has led to increased demand for copper, contributing to the rising prices [4][8] - Demand for copper products related to new energy vehicles, such as copper foil and copper rods, has remained strong throughout the year [5][6] - Overall copper consumption in China has been growing since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with refined copper consumption expected to reach 14.95 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [7] Group 3 - The copper consumption in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and artificial intelligence is projected to reach between 3.8 million to 4 million tons this year, driving overall copper consumption growth [8] - Industry experts express confidence in copper prices due to the positive long-term supply and demand fundamentals [8] - There is a potential risk of substitution with lighter and cheaper aluminum materials in sectors like new energy vehicles and household appliances if copper prices continue to rise [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate spot TC index remains at a low negative level, indicating a tight raw material supply. The supply of refined copper may be restricted due to the tight copper ore supply and concentrated maintenance of some smelters. Downstream demand is still cautious due to high copper prices, mainly for rigid demand restocking. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of converging supply and temporarily weak demand. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,990 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,931 dollars/ton, down 22 dollars. The main contract's open interest is 210,684 lots, up 5,956 lots. The LME copper inventory is 156,500 tons, down 75 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 87,085 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 87,165 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan. The CU main contract basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 30.83 dollars/ton, up 21.31 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi and Yunnan are 76,990 yuan/metal ton and 77,690 yuan/metal ton respectively, both up 140 yuan. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.11 dollars [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 thousand pieces, down 194,236.10 thousand pieces [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.20%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.39%, up 0.01%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 12.13%, up 0.0044%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.23, up 0.059 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity is basically flat, with some areas facing a risk of slowdown. Six departments jointly issued a plan to promote consumer goods consumption. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to a new low. More car companies are entering the humanoid robot field. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association opposes zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry and is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity [2].

Core Points - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has publicly opposed the phenomenon of zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry, calling it a "structural contradiction" that is unsustainable for the global copper industry [1][2] - China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity by halting approximately 2 million tons of illegal capacity to curb overexpansion, drawing lessons from the aluminum industry [2] - The processing and refining fees (TC/RC) have dropped to historical lows due to a structural imbalance between raw material shortages and excess smelting capacity, with spot processing fees even reaching negative $60 per ton [2] Industry Response - The association's vice president, Chen Xuesen, emphasized the harmful effects of negative processing fees on the global copper smelting industry and urged cooperation among relevant countries and stakeholders [1][2] - The current market conditions have led to concerns about the sustainability of the industry, with major companies like JX Advanced Metals and Glencore facing operational challenges due to low processing fees [2] - The upcoming long-term contract negotiations for 2026 are expected to address the need for a more sustainable pricing mechanism, with a cautious outlook from analysts regarding the potential for significant changes in the short term [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to tighten again next year, leading to new highs in copper concentrate and refined copper prices, with a projected shortfall of approximately 500,000 tons in the global copper concentrate market [1] - The limited supply growth and increasing demand from new smelters outside of China are the main reasons for the anticipated shortfall, which is consistent with this year's situation [1] - The refined copper market is currently experiencing an oversupply of 350,000 to 400,000 tons, a significant revision from the previous estimate of a 300,000-ton shortfall made in May [1] Group 2 - Mercuria, along with other energy traders like BGN and Gunvor, is expanding into metal trading, betting on structural changes in the global energy system to be profitable [2] - Over the past 12 months, Mercuria has invested nearly $2 billion, trading approximately 1 million tons of copper and 1.5 million tons of copper concentrate [2]

国际铜研究组织（ICSG）称在最新月度中指出，全球精炼铜市场9月出现5.1万吨缺口，而8月尚有4.1万 吨盈余。该机构称，今年前九个月市场呈现9.4万吨盈余，而去年同期盈余达31万吨。9月全球精炼铜产 量为237万吨，消费量为242万吨。经中国保税仓库库存变动调整后，9月出现5万吨缺口，8月为4.7万吨 盈余。 目前国内铜精矿现货加工费持续低迷，临近年底市场关注焦点在于国内冶炼厂和海外矿商对于加工费的 长单谈判结果。 11月26日（周三），铜价上涨，因疲软的美国数据提高了美联储12月降息的预期。 上海期货交易所交投最活跃的1月铜合约日盘收涨170元或0.20%，报每吨86,590元。 伦敦金属交易所(LME)指标三个月期铜最新上涨74美元或0.68%，报每吨10,892美元。 市场获得新的支撑，因美国政府关门而推迟至周二才发布的美国9月经济数据显示零售销售和通胀降 温，支持美联储在12月降息。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，美国9月零售销售月率上升0.2%，市场此前预期增长0.4%，前值增长 0.6%。 美国9月PPI月率增长0.3%，符合预期，前值下降0.1%。 上海期交所其他基本金属中，期铝2601合约小 ...