Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 78,625 with a basis of 25, indicating a premium over the futures, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased on July 10, and the SHFE copper inventory increased compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, geopolitical disturbances, and a 50% increase in US copper tariffs, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions presents a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors. The expected market situation is complex due to multiple factors such as Fed policies, trade tariffs, and geopolitical issues [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific bullish and bearish factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - No specific data analysis is provided in the given text, only the format for presenting spot prices, changes, and inventory information is shown [6]. 期现价差 - No relevant content provided. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventories increased on July 10, and the SHFE copper inventory increased compared to last week [2]. Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. CFTC - No relevant content provided. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

Group 1: Report's Core View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued recovery in the manufacturing industry [2] - The basis shows a premium over futures, which is neutral [2] - Copper inventories decreased on June 2nd, and SHFE copper inventories decreased from the previous week, which is neutral [2] - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is neutral [2] - The main position is net long but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and increased uncertainty of US trade tariffs [2] - The logic of recent market trends is related to domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3] Group 2: Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [22] Group 3: Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14] - The processing fee has declined [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%， 比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升；中性。 2、基差：现货78090，基差650，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：4月25日铜库存增25至203450吨，上期所铜库存较上周减54858吨至116753吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，关税情绪或有所好转，震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 现货 地方 中间价 涨跌 库存 类型 总量（吨） 增减 昨日上 海 仓单 今日上 海 LME库存 ...