Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The attack on Middle Eastern aluminum plants marks the transition of global aluminum supply from "logistics disruptions" to "hard capacity damage," and the upward shift of the aluminum price center is a foregone conclusion. Upstream smelting enterprises will directly benefit from export growth and rising aluminum prices, and their profit margins are expected to continue to recover. Downstream processing enterprises face rising raw material costs and need to hedge cost risks through timely price increases, optimizing raw material procurement channels, and locking in long - term orders. The trading sector benefits from the widening of the domestic - foreign price difference, and the export arbitrage window is officially opened. Logistics efficiency and customs clearance speed will be the core competitiveness for seizing the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Event Core - On March 28, Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain associated with the US military/aviation industry. The Taweelah smelter of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in Abu Dhabi was severely damaged, with a 2025 capacity of 1.6 million tons, accounting for 4% of the global total. The core plant of Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) was damaged, with a 2025 capacity of 1.623 million tons, accounting for 2.19% of the global total [3] - The attack caused casualties, and both companies stated that they could not resume production in the short term. The estimated overall production cut in 2026 is about 20%, upgrading from previous logistics disruptions and energy shortages to substantial hard capacity damage [7] - The Middle East is a low - cost core production area for global electrolytic aluminum. The total electrolytic aluminum capacity of six Middle Eastern countries is nearly 7 million tons, accounting for about 9% of the global total. The combined capacity of the two attacked plants exceeds 6% of the global total. About 10% of the global aluminum supply comes from the Middle East, and 65% of the local alumina is imported through the Strait of Hormuz, making the raw material transportation highly vulnerable [7] - Before the attack, the Middle East had already experienced capacity contractions due to energy shortages and transportation disruptions. After the attack, over 30% of the aluminum capacity in the Middle East is out of operation, and the supply crisis has fully erupted [9] - Due to the high requirements for production continuity in the electrolytic aluminum industry, the supply loss caused by this unplanned shutdown is long - term. The复产 cycle is usually 6 - 12 months or more, and it requires stable power supply, sufficient raw materials, and a long - term geopolitical security environment. The loss of electrolytic aluminum capacity in the Middle East may be long - term, affecting the supply stability in the next two to three years [10] 2. Market Impact - The attack on Middle Eastern aluminum plants reversed the global aluminum market's supply - demand pattern from a weak surplus to a rigid shortage. International institutions have revised their supply - demand forecasts. Goldman Sachs narrowed the surplus to 550,000 tons, and Bank of America raised the supply - demand gap to 1.5 million tons [11] - LME aluminum inventory has declined to a historical low of 420,000 tons, and most of it is Russian aluminum, with low effective circulation. The domestic social inventory at the end of March was at a five - year high of 1.349 million tons, but with the expansion of the overseas supply gap, the export of domestic aluminum has increased by 12.9% year - on - year from January to February, and the high - inventory inflection point is approaching [12] - Aluminum prices have shifted from being a drag on the sector to independent strength. After the attack on March 28 - 29, the three major global aluminum markets strengthened. As of March 30, the Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 3.85% to 24,820 yuan/ton, LME aluminum rose 4.93% to $3,448/ton, and COMEX aluminum rose over 5.45% [14] - The overseas market focuses on the "supply gap," with the spot premium reaching a 19 - year high. The domestic market will shift from a weak pattern of high - inventory price suppression to an active market driven by exports. The price of domestic aluminum will rise, and the internal and external markets will strengthen together, but the domestic price increase will be affected by the inventory reduction speed [16] 3. Core Logic and Future Outlook - The upward movement of aluminum prices is driven by three core logics: the hard damage to the supply side cannot be quickly repaired, with over 6% of global core capacity out of operation for a long time; the global aluminum industry's cost curve has shifted upward, with the energy cost in electrolytic aluminum smelting rising to 40% - 50%; and the low inventory and resilient demand, with LME inventory at a historical low and domestic demand in the peak season [18] - The aluminum market also faces risks. In the short term, high domestic inventory will suppress price increases. In the medium term, a sudden easing of geopolitical conflicts, unexpected resumption of production of attacked plants, or a shift in Fed monetary policy may cause price corrections. In the long term, the strict control of the 45 - million - ton/year domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity ceiling and the gradual release of overseas new capacity will gradually balance the supply - demand pattern [19] 4. Summary - The attack on the two core aluminum plants in the Middle East represents a qualitative change from logistics disruptions to hard capacity damage. The global aluminum supply will face a rigid gap for more than half a year, the aluminum price center will rise, and the domestic market will shift from "high - inventory price suppression" to "export - driven inventory reduction" [20]