1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. The current supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. In the short term, the aluminum price may have an oversold rebound, but the rebound space is limited. The mainstream operating range of the aluminum price next week is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton. The range of SHFE Aluminum 2605 is expected to be 23,700 - 24,500 [5][10]. - The new long positions are recommended to wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The medium - to long - term is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, and global economic stagflation, the supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. The aluminum price may have an oversold rebound next week, but the rebound space may be limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see, and temporarily avoid new long positions [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Hold light long positions [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: In the first quarter, Guinean mines have achieved full - production operation, and the supply is expected to remain high from April to June. However, Guinea plans to limit bauxite exports before early April to stabilize prices. The bauxite price of $60 may be the medium - to long - term bottom. Even if the export quota is implemented, the bauxite shipment from Guinea will not decline sharply in the short term [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of March 27, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,220 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.58%. The market supply - demand has changed from surplus to tight balance. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has disrupted the caustic soda supply, and Guinea's export control has led to market recovery [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February, the domestic built - in production capacity was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton production capacity limit. Projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the process of production, and some idle production capacity in the Northeast may resume production on a small scale. Overseas, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on the global aluminum supply chain. Qatar Aluminum has cut production by 636,000 tons, and Bahrain Aluminum has declared force majeure. ANZ Bank estimates that about 8 - 10 million tons of production will be affected in 2026, and it is expected to return to normal production by 2028 [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products has significantly declined from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [9]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was about 1.371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 69%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has significantly decreased, and the warehouse shipment volume has significantly increased during the price decline. The inventory accumulation cycle may be coming to an end. The inventory of aluminum rods is 330,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 8% and a year - on - year increase of about 26%, still at a high level in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton (last week it was about 7,300 yuan/ton), at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: The industry continues to improve, but the macro - guidance is weak. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain in the current range next week, with a mainstream operating range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton [10]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite from Guinea and Australia have increased, while the price of domestic bauxite remains unchanged. The number of ship bookings by mines and traders has not significantly decreased. It is expected that the shipment volume in April will decrease, but the reduction is controllable. - The price of port thermal coal has shown a moderately strong shock trend this week. The market operation is relatively cautious. The current coal supply is at a high level, and the inventory days are higher than the safety line, so most power plants have no obvious pressure to replenish inventory. - The alumina price has risen and then fallen this week. The social inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and there is a large amount of inventory in the delivery warehouse. The upward price space is limited, and the lower limit is the cost line and the impact of overseas bauxite [11]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic bauxite supply is still in a relatively abundant state. The arrival volume in April may decrease, but the reduction is limited. - The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past 5 years. The in - plant inventory of alumina plants has significantly decreased since March, while the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has continued to accumulate at a high level. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [15]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import loss of alumina is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 4,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 62.9% this week. The production of aluminum profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The demand for canning materials, batteries and other related products has continued to pick up, but the orders for automobile sheets have been affected by the tax incentive phase - out. The demand for aluminum cables is at a peak level, and the order scheduling in April is expected to be good. The orders for battery foils and packaging foils are prominent. Overall, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, but the high aluminum price and macro - uncertainty still suppress the demand release elasticity [23]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure The current SHFE aluminum futures show a contango market structure, with general spot demand. However, the slope of the spot price has eased compared with last month, and the spot - end demand is better than that in February. In the short term, the price is continuously guided by the macro - factors [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,980 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,790 yuan/ton last week. The current spread is supportive of electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. - The spread between the ADC12 spot and the active month of the SHFE casting alloy is about 3,740 yuan/ton this week, compared with 4,040 yuan/ton last week. The basis of ADC12 is at a high level in recent years, and the shortage of alloy spot is obvious [38][40]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has further shrunk, but it is still at a high level since 2018. Since January, the net long position of funds has generally shown a fluctuating decline. In the latest period, the reduction of the long - position camp is obvious, while the short - position camp generally remains inactive. The long - position still dominates, but the net long - power is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate sharply [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short - position of the main contract has remained stable and has decreased during the recent price decline. This week, the electrolytic aluminum price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and both the long and short camps have continued to significantly reduce their positions. The main contract is currently in a net short - position. Institutions mainly for speculation show signs of turning from net short to net long. The funds from the mid - and downstream enterprises have turned to a slight net short - position. Overall, the main - force funds are inclined to a slight rebound in the short - term price [44].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, Shanghai aluminum continued to undergo a correction. The 2509 contract fell 0.41% to 20,760. The total open interest of the index decreased by 25,607 to 665,593 lots. The 08 - 09 spread remained flat at 25, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -525. Alumina fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. The proportion of old - style production capacity in the alumina industry is relatively low, and it is difficult to benefit under current policies. In the short term, there is still a need to be vigilant about the callback risk after the sentiment fades. [8] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is currently in the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and demand remains sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector is still weak during the off - season. The negative feedback effect of the high absolute price of aluminum on terminal consumption has reappeared. On July 24, the immediate profit was 3,979 yuan/ton, still at a high level. Overall, both supply and demand of aluminum are weak during the off - season. In the short term, it is supported by policy expectations and rises with the sector, but the upside space is temporarily difficult to open, and the resistance near the previous high is obvious. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum: The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell 0.41% on July 24, with a decrease in total open interest. The 08 - 09 spread was flat, and the AD - AL negative spread was -525. [8] - Alumina: It fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. There is a risk of a post - sentiment callback. [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In the off - season, high operating capacity, weak demand, low processing operating rate, and high profit level. The upside space is restricted by the previous high. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. [9] - **Production Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly. Due to the start of the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production capacity of the original factory was required to be reduced, resulting in a slight month - on - month decrease in production. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, with the industry operating rate rebounding. [10] - **Guinea's Mining Policy**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced the revocation of exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises have long - idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management. [10] - **US Aluminum Plant Restart**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an estimated loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After the Spanish government provided relevant reports and commitments, the restart work resumed on July 14. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million - $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026. The smelter has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 228,000 tons. [10]