Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, Shanghai aluminum continued to undergo a correction. The 2509 contract fell 0.41% to 20,760. The total open interest of the index decreased by 25,607 to 665,593 lots. The 08 - 09 spread remained flat at 25, and the AD - AL negative spread was reported at -525. Alumina fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. The proportion of old - style production capacity in the alumina industry is relatively low, and it is difficult to benefit under current policies. In the short term, there is still a need to be vigilant about the callback risk after the sentiment fades. [8] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is currently in the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and demand remains sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector is still weak during the off - season. The negative feedback effect of the high absolute price of aluminum on terminal consumption has reappeared. On July 24, the immediate profit was 3,979 yuan/ton, still at a high level. Overall, both supply and demand of aluminum are weak during the off - season. In the short term, it is supported by policy expectations and rises with the sector, but the upside space is temporarily difficult to open, and the resistance near the previous high is obvious. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum: The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell 0.41% on July 24, with a decrease in total open interest. The 08 - 09 spread was flat, and the AD - AL negative spread was -525. [8] - Alumina: It fluctuated at a high level, closing slightly up 0.23% at 3,427. There is a risk of a post - sentiment callback. [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In the off - season, high operating capacity, weak demand, low processing operating rate, and high profit level. The upside space is restricted by the previous high. [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June, primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June, the net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. [9] - **Production Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In June, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity changed slightly. Due to the start of the second - phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production capacity of the original factory was required to be reduced, resulting in a slight month - on - month decrease in production. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level, and the second - batch replacement project in Yunnan was put into operation, with the industry operating rate rebounding. [10] - **Guinea's Mining Policy**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced the revocation of exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises have long - idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The government aims to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management. [10] - **US Aluminum Plant Restart**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an estimated loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After the Spanish government provided relevant reports and commitments, the restart work resumed on July 14. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million - $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026. The smelter has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 228,000 tons. [10]