Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Long SHFE aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [10] Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum market maintains a weak and narrow - range oscillation. In the short - term, the aluminum price will show a seasonally weak oscillation due to the consumption off - season and unclear policy stimulus. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily. The focus is on the potential price increase during the consumption peak season. The alumina market remains in a state of surplus, with production resuming due to profit incentives and the speed of social inventory accumulation and registered warehouse receipts still to be observed. The aluminum alloy market is in the consumption off - season, with prices following the aluminum price and potential cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [7][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Important Data - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,520 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount is - 40 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,420 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 140 yuan/ton with no change from the previous day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,530 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount is - 25 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Aluminum Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,525 yuan/ton, the closing price is 20,560 yuan/ton, a change of 105 yuan/ton. The highest price is 20,570 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 20,435 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 99,996 lots, and the open interest is 225,945 lots [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 5, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 564,000 tons, a change of 2.0 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory is 44,287 tons, a change of - 2,362 tons. The LME aluminum inventory is 466,025 tons, a change of 2,300 tons [3] - **Alumina Spot Price**: On August 5, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3,310 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3,315 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 375 US dollars/ton [3] - **Alumina Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 3,232 yuan/ton, the closing price is 3,227 yuan/ton, a change of 37 yuan/ton or 1.16%. The highest price is 3,245 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 3,178 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 242,539 lots, and the open interest is 124,750 lots [3] - **Aluminum Alloy Price**: On August 5, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 15,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum is 15,300 yuan/ton, both with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 19,600 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton [4] - **Aluminum Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 46,000 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 64,000 tons [5] - **Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost is 19,949 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 249 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It maintains a weak and narrow - range oscillation. The social inventory has increased to 560,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory is only 44,000 tons. The 08 contract open interest is 180,000 tons, and there are still conditions for a short squeeze. The "anti - involution" has little impact on the supply side. In the short - term, the aluminum price will show a seasonally weak oscillation. In the long - term, supply is restricted while consumption grows steadily [7] - **Alumina**: In the spot market, on August 4, India traded 30,000 tons of alumina at FOB 377.25 US dollars/ton for mid - August shipment, a decline of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the July 25 transaction. The alumina warehouse receipts increased rapidly by 6,627 tons to 13,242 tons. The 08 contract open interest remains at 2,190 lots. The bauxite in Guinea is in surplus, and the alumina production profit remains. The supply side continues to resume production, and the surplus situation remains unchanged [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the consumption off - season. The futures price follows the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum and raw aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 480 yuan/ton. The 11 contract has become a peak - season contract, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities are worth attention [9]