1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade the alumina main contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract with a light position on dips for short - term long positions, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [10]. - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum's weekly line fluctuated weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.77%, closing at 24,020 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated strongly, with a weekly change of + 2.88%, closing at 3,041 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 3.57%, closing at 22,810 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook** - **Alumina**: On the raw material side, the mining of bauxite in Guinea has seasonally recovered, but due to geopolitical conflicts, shipping capacity has decreased and shipping costs have increased, pushing up the cost of bauxite and supporting the cost of alumina. On the supply side, alumina imports have increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and with the release of new production capacity, the domestic alumina supply remains relatively high. On the demand side, the weekly start - up of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants has remained stable. Affected by the overseas situation, the international aluminum supply has turned to negative growth, and there may be export demand in the future, with an expected increase in demand for raw material alumina [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the raw material side, the alumina price has risen due to geopolitical situations, and the aluminum price has strengthened due to the expected overseas supply gap, keeping the smelter's theoretical profit at an advantage. On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants have maintained a high start - up rate due to good smelting profits and sufficient raw material supply, and the domestic supply has remained stable. On the demand side, with the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, the start - up rate of downstream aluminum products has increased. However, affected by the geopolitical impact on economic expectations, the aluminum price has been under pressure at high levels and fluctuated sharply, and the downstream purchasing willingness has gradually become cautious. As the aluminum price corrects, downstream consumption may be boosted. In addition, the stagnation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East due to the war may lead to a gap in international aluminum supply, supporting the domestic electrolytic aluminum export expectations [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: On the supply side, the scrap aluminum price has weakened as the aluminum price has corrected, and the holders' sentiment of holding back sales has become stronger. The high scrap aluminum price still provides strong support for cast aluminum. Cast aluminum plants have been actively putting into production, but due to the scrap aluminum traders' reluctance to sell, they mainly consume raw material inventories and make rigid purchases of scrap aluminum, and the domestic cast aluminum alloy supply may increase. On the demand side, downstream die - casting plants have become more cautious in purchasing due to the high price of cast aluminum alloy, mainly adopting strategies of replenishing at low prices and making rigid purchases, and the spot market trading has been relatively light [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,040 yuan/ton or 4.16% from March 13. As of March 19, 2026, the LME aluminum closing price was 3,242 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 291 US dollars/ton or 8.24% from March 13 [13]. - As of March 20, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 141 yuan/ton or 4.98% from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 22,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845 yuan/ton or 3.57% from March 13 [16]. - As of March 20, 2026, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 24,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,070 yuan/ton or 4.26% from March 13. The spot discount was 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [30]. - **Position Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 585,532 lots, a decrease of 103,515 lots or 15.02% from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 65,831 lots from March 13 [19]. - **Price Difference Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was - 1,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the copper - aluminum futures price difference was 70,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,630 yuan/ton from March 13 [22]. - **Spot Price Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan was 2,765 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 2.22% from March 13; the average alumina price in Shanxi was 2,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 2.79% from March 13; the average alumina price in Guiyang was 2,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 2.79% from March 13. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton or 1.98% from March 13 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory** - As of March 19, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a decrease of 14,575 tons or 3.26% from March 12. As of March 20, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 452,044 tons, an increase of 35,619 tons or 8.55% from the previous week. As of March 19, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1,299,000 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons or 3% from March 12 [35]. - As of March 20, 2026, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 403,558 tons, an increase of 41,590 tons or 11.49% from March 13. As of March 19, 2026, the total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 273,050 tons, an increase of 250 tons or 0.09% from March 12 [35]. - **Bauxite** - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 24.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 310,000 tons. According to customs data, in February 2026, the monthly import of bauxite was 16.953 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.95% and a year - on - year increase of 18.05%. From January to February this year, the imported bauxite was 36.2058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum** - As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 650 yuan/ton. According to customs data, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and crushed materials was 194,102.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%; the export volume was 70.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [44]. - **Alumina** - In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative alumina output was 15.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. In December 2025, the alumina import volume was 227,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1389.71%; the alumina export volume was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.53% and a year - on - year increase of 10.53%. From January to December, the cumulative alumina import was 1.1978 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [46][47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 387,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 753,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.916 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 2.12%; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%; the start - up rate was 98.93%, an increase of 0.04% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.56% from the same period last year [54]. - In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 201,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 390,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.97%. In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 10,000 tons. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 23,300 tons. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, from January to January 2026, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 218,200 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Products** - In December 2025, the aluminum product output was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year flat of 0%. From January to February, the cumulative aluminum product output was 9.486 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In February 2026, the aluminum product import volume was 290,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%; the export volume was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to February, the aluminum product import volume was 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; the export volume was 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [57][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - In February 2026, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. In February 2026, the recycled aluminum alloy output was 270,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.47% [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - In December 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 93,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%; the export volume was 25,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.03%. From January to December, the aluminum alloy import volume was 1.0084 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.82%; the export volume was 284,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [64]. - **Real Estate Market** - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and a decrease of 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to February 2024, the new housing start - up area was 50.839 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.13%; the housing completion area was 63.2042 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% [67]. - **Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Production and Sales** - From January to February 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1,805,165 units, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%; the production volume was 1,672,445 units, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [75].