Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and declined, with the main contract falling 0.35% and closing at 23,935 yuan/ton on Friday. Under the carbon neutrality policy, long - term production capacity is controlled, domestic real - estate demand is weak, but aluminum replacing copper may bring incremental demand. Middle - East events have disrupted aluminum supply, and the decline of non - ferrous metals has dragged down aluminum prices. The domestic fundamentals are entering the peak season, and later consumption changes should be monitored. Last week, LME inventory was 420,875 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 2,527 tons to 454,571 tons [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and declined. The main contract fell 0.35%, closing at 23,935 yuan/ton on Friday. The decline was due to factors such as long - term production capacity control under carbon neutrality, weak real - estate demand, potential demand from aluminum replacing copper, supply disruptions from Middle - East events, and the drag of non - ferrous metal price declines. The domestic market is entering the peak season, and attention should be paid to consumption changes. LME inventory was 420,875 tons, slightly down from the previous week, and SHFE weekly inventory increased by 2,527 tons to 454,571 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The China annual supply - demand balance sheet for aluminum shows that from 2018 - 2024, production, net imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance have all changed. For example, in 2018, production was 36.09 million tons, net imports were 70,300 tons, apparent consumption was 36.1503 million tons, actual consumption was 36.6263 million tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 476,000 tons. In 2024, production is expected to be 43.1227 million tons, net imports 1.9616 million tons, apparent consumption 45.025 million tons, actual consumption 44.875 million tons, and the supply - demand balance 150,000 tons [11] 3. Market Structure 3.1 Spot - Futures Price Difference - Not provided 3.2 Import Profit - Not provided

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to impact aluminum supply, with expectations of further production cuts. Demand is gradually recovering as the market transitions into the peak season, but the inventory turning point is still awaited. The domestic aluminum oxide production capacity is on a downward trend, influenced by geopolitical factors and rising costs, which are driving up aluminum oxide prices. Long-term, the aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand [11] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of March 27, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3284.5 per ton, up $92.5 from the previous week, a 2.9% week-on-week increase, and up $677.5 year-on-year, a 26.0% increase [23] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 23935.0 yuan per ton, down 85.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.4% week-on-week decrease, and up 3215.0 yuan year-on-year, a 15.5% increase [23] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 23870.0 yuan per ton, down 160.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.7% week-on-week decrease, and up 3190.0 yuan year-on-year, a 15.4% increase [23] 2. Production - In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum production was 346.0 million tons, a decrease of 33.9 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 12.0 million tons year-on-year, a 3.6% increase [53] - The aluminum oxide production in February 2026 was 660.0 million tons, down 78.5 million tons month-on-month, and down 33.5 million tons year-on-year, a 4.8% decrease [53] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Hongqiao Holdings, China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2026 are as follows: - Hongqiao Holdings: 2.49 yuan - China Hongqiao: 3.34 yuan - Tianshan Aluminum: 1.28 yuan - Shenhuo Co.: 2.56 yuan - China Aluminum: 0.92 yuan - Yun Aluminum: 2.07 yuan [6] 4. Inventory - As of March 26, the domestic main consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was reported at 1.349 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week-on-week [8] - The aluminum rod inventory in the main consumption area was 341,500 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a steady acceleration in the destocking trend [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical sentiment related to the Middle - East conflict has subsided, and the futures - spot price spread has converged. The futures price of alumina has declined due to the cooling of the US - Iran conflict and high futures premiums. The spot price has rebounded in most regions due to production capacity overhauls and increased delivery demand. The bauxite price has increased due to multiple factors, and the alumina supply is tightening in the short - term but remains in a long - term surplus situation. The market should adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US - Iran conflict [11][12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 pm on March 27, the alumina index fell 2.85% to 2966 yuan/ton this week, with positions decreasing by 23,000 lots to 421,000 lots. The futures price oscillated downward due to the cooling of the US - Iran conflict and high futures premiums. The Shandong spot price was 2715 yuan/ton, at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. The spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 52 yuan/ton [11][23] - **Spot Price**: This week, the alumina spot prices in various regions rebounded. The prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 5 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 35 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and remained flat respectively. Some production capacity overhauls continued, and the premium in the futures market led to increased delivery demand, keeping the circulating spot supply tight [11][20] - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 12,000 tons to 5.846 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, in - plant inventory of alumina plants, in - transit inventory, and port inventory increased by 23,000 tons, decreased by 10,000 tons, increased by 37,000 tons, and decreased by 38,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 15,000 tons to 414,100 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 475,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week [11][69][71] 3.2 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The alumina spot prices in various regions rebounded this week. The tight supply was due to ongoing production capacity overhauls and increased delivery demand caused by the futures premium [20] - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell 2.85% to 2966 yuan/ton this week. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the 05 contract, and the spread between the first and third - month contracts closed at - 52 yuan/ton [23] - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices remained unchanged this week. The CIF price of Guinea bauxite increased by $2.5/ton to $67.5/ton, and that of Australian bauxite increased by $5/ton to $62/ton. The price increase was due to the Middle - East conflict, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the temporary closure of two Australian bauxite mines by Rio Tinto [27] 3.3 Supply Side - **Bauxite Production and Import**: In February 2026, China's bauxite production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.92%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.16%. In February, bauxite imports were 16.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.61% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.95%. The cumulative imports in the first two months were 36.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.23% [31][33] - **Bauxite Inventory**: In February, China's bauxite inventory increased by 960,000 tons to 58.86 million tons, remaining at a high level in the past five years. The inventory in Shanxi and Henan increased by 70,000 tons respectively, and the inventory increase mainly came from Shandong and Guangxi [40] - **Alumina Production**: In February 2026, China's alumina production was 7.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.77% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.52%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.52%. As of March 27, 2026, the weekly alumina production was 1.782 million tons, a slight increase of 2,000 tons from last week [42][43] - **Alumina Factory Profit**: The alumina spot price rebounded, but the cost of bauxite and caustic soda also increased, leading to a contraction in the profit of alumina plants. According to the alumina spot price on March 27, the production profit in Guangxi was 150 yuan/ton; the profit in Shandong using Australian and Guinea ore was 230 yuan/ton and 250 yuan/ton respectively. Alumina plants in inland areas using overseas ore had a loss of 30 yuan/ton in Shanxi and a profit of 60 yuan/ton in Henan [46] - **Alumina Import and Export**: In February 2026, the net import of alumina was 34,600 tons. As of March 27, the FOB price in Australia increased by $18/ton to $320/ton, and the import loss was 37 yuan/ton, closing the import window, mainly due to the impact of the Australian cyclone [49][51] - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In February 2026, overseas alumina production was 4.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 10.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.59% [53] 3.4 Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.71%. The cumulative production in the first two months was 7.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.25% [58] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In February 2026, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. The operating rate increased by 0.13% to 97.08% [61] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina balance sheet shows the supply - demand situation from February to December 2026 (estimated). The supply generally exceeds the demand, and the net export situation is relatively stable [64] 3.6 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 12,000 tons to 5.846 million tons this week, with different changes in various sub - inventories [69] - **Futures Inventory**: The total warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 15,000 tons to 414,100 tons; the inventory in the delivery warehouse was 475,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the situation between the US and Iran has further deteriorated, causing a significant decline in AL prices and a weak overall performance of the aluminum product line. The price of scrap aluminum remains firm, with high - level price fluctuations. During the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, recycled aluminum enterprises are actively starting work, and production is on the rise. However, due to the short - term difficulty in alleviating the tense situation in the Middle East, the market recession expectation is rising, risk assets are under pressure, and the AD price has also declined, with short - term high - level price fluctuations [6] - As of March 20, the visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.53 million tons compared with the previous week, with an increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The automotive market in March is expected to show seasonal recovery, but the recovery of fuel - powered vehicles is hindered [6] 3. Summary by Directory Transaction End - Volume and Price - The report presents the price differences of AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, and AD02 - 03, as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest data [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2604.shf and AD2605.shf contracts, the spread is 70 yuan/ton. The total cost of inter - period positive arbitrage is 92 yuan/ton, including fixed costs of 12.62 yuan/ton and floating costs of 79.72 yuan/ton [13] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 24,100 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost is 24,254.2 yuan/ton [15] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production has significantly decreased, while social inventory has increased. Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [17][18] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has fluctuated more intensively. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [29][34] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has rebounded, but the monthly operating rate remains low. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost estimate is above the break - even line [39][43] - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has slightly decreased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is closed [48][50] - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the report shows the production volume, inventory volume, and inventory proportion data [53][54][55] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Automobile production is at a low level year - on - year, and there are concerns about automobile consumption. The report also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as the PPI of auto parts and the automobile inventory warning index [58][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing price increases due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which is affecting supply stability [6][10] - The demand for aluminum is expected to gradually recover as the market transitions into the peak season, although inventory levels need to be monitored for potential turning points [10] - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand increases [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of March 20, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3192.0 per ton, down 7.2% week-on-week but up 19.4% year-on-year [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 24020.0 CNY per ton, down 3.8% week-on-week and up 16.0% year-on-year [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 24030.0 CNY per ton, down 4.3% week-on-week and up 16.9% year-on-year [22] 2. Production - In February 2026, the aluminum production was 346.0 million tons, a decrease of 33.9 million tons month-on-month but an increase of 12.0 million tons year-on-year [51] - The alumina production in February 2026 was 660.0 million tons, down 78.5 million tons month-on-month and down 4.8% year-on-year [51] 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.76 CNY for 2026 [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY for 2026 [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.56 CNY for 2026 [5] - Aluminum Corporation of China (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.92 CNY for 2026 [5] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.07 CNY for 2026 [5] 4. Supply and Demand - Domestic and international supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, with daily production expected to decrease [7] - As of March 19, 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was reported at 1.339 million tons, an increase of 4.5 million tons week-on-week [7] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased slightly to 62.9%, indicating a slight recovery in demand [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The negative impact on the macro line has temporarily offset concerns about overseas supply in the aluminum market, while for alumina, attention should be paid to policy changes at the Guinean mine end, and the pricing sentiment in the market remains relatively strong [3][4]. - The current global macro - economic situation is complex. Overseas geopolitical conflicts have led to increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the variability of trade policies has added uncertainty, which interferes with market expectations for the electrolytic aluminum market [97]. - The supply of alumina is in a loose pattern in the short term, and the price may continue to be under pressure [68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End: Spreads, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spot - futures spreads of A00 aluminum and alumina have weakened. The average SMM A00 aluminum spot - futures spread changed from - 130 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) spot - futures spread changed from - 190 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 301 yuan/ton to - 318 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina to the current month changed from - 251 yuan/ton to - 263 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of SHFE aluminum have declined [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the SHFE aluminum main contract has slightly increased, and the trading volume has significantly increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has slightly decreased but remains at a historical high, and the trading volume has slightly decreased [13]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has slightly declined and is at a historically low level [18]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of March 20, the port inventory of imported bauxite in the Steel Union's weekly data showed a decline, with a decrease of 631,000 tons compared to the previous week. As of February, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China decreased by 6.6232 million tons month - on - month. The port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory of bauxite in Guinea and Australia have increased. The shipping volume from Australian ports and the sea - floating inventory have also increased. The outbound volume of bauxite from Australian ports has increased, while that from Guinean ports has decreased, and the arrival volume has declined [23][28][29][34]. - **Alumina**: The total inventory of alumina has continued to increase. The Steel Union's data shows an increase of 64,000 tons this week. The inventory in alumina plants has remained flat, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, and the port and on - the - way inventories have increased. The all - caliber inventory of alumina in阿拉丁 has also continued to increase, with an increase of 24,000 tons as of March 19 [43][49]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase. As of March 19, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 47,000 tons to 1.357 million tons [50]. - **Aluminum Rods**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods have declined this week [53]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: As of February, the finished - product and raw - material inventory ratios of SMM aluminum profiles and plate - foils have slightly increased [56]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: In February, the domestic bauxite supply remained stable, but the output in the SMM's data decreased slightly. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. The output in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi has decreased to varying degrees [61][64]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina has remained stable. As of March 20, the total operating capacity of alumina in the country was 92.2 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.3 million tons. This week, the output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.78 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the previous week, and the supply - side situation remains loose [68]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of February, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate has slightly decreased. As of March 12, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum in the Steel Union's data was 859,700 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The proportion of molten aluminum has seasonally declined, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to increase month - on - month [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foils has increased. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises has increased by 1%, in line with the seasonality. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, recycled aluminum alloys, and primary aluminum alloys have increased to varying degrees [77][78][85]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: In February, the profit of alumina continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina in the Steel Union's data was 110.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have declined slightly, while the cost in Guangxi is relatively stable, and the profit performance is better than in other regions [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and geopolitical conflicts have increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [97]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 280 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [98]. 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum have increased [107]. - **Export**: In February 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 111,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed materials shows a divergence, and the export demand for aluminum products is hindered by trade policy adjustments [109][111]. - **Apparent Demand**: The transaction area of commercial housing is at a low level, and the automobile sales volume is flat year - on - year [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade the alumina main contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract with a light position on dips for short - term long positions, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [10]. - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum's weekly line fluctuated weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.77%, closing at 24,020 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated strongly, with a weekly change of + 2.88%, closing at 3,041 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 3.57%, closing at 22,810 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook** - **Alumina**: On the raw material side, the mining of bauxite in Guinea has seasonally recovered, but due to geopolitical conflicts, shipping capacity has decreased and shipping costs have increased, pushing up the cost of bauxite and supporting the cost of alumina. On the supply side, alumina imports have increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and with the release of new production capacity, the domestic alumina supply remains relatively high. On the demand side, the weekly start - up of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants has remained stable. Affected by the overseas situation, the international aluminum supply has turned to negative growth, and there may be export demand in the future, with an expected increase in demand for raw material alumina [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the raw material side, the alumina price has risen due to geopolitical situations, and the aluminum price has strengthened due to the expected overseas supply gap, keeping the smelter's theoretical profit at an advantage. On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants have maintained a high start - up rate due to good smelting profits and sufficient raw material supply, and the domestic supply has remained stable. On the demand side, with the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, the start - up rate of downstream aluminum products has increased. However, affected by the geopolitical impact on economic expectations, the aluminum price has been under pressure at high levels and fluctuated sharply, and the downstream purchasing willingness has gradually become cautious. As the aluminum price corrects, downstream consumption may be boosted. In addition, the stagnation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East due to the war may lead to a gap in international aluminum supply, supporting the domestic electrolytic aluminum export expectations [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: On the supply side, the scrap aluminum price has weakened as the aluminum price has corrected, and the holders' sentiment of holding back sales has become stronger. The high scrap aluminum price still provides strong support for cast aluminum. Cast aluminum plants have been actively putting into production, but due to the scrap aluminum traders' reluctance to sell, they mainly consume raw material inventories and make rigid purchases of scrap aluminum, and the domestic cast aluminum alloy supply may increase. On the demand side, downstream die - casting plants have become more cautious in purchasing due to the high price of cast aluminum alloy, mainly adopting strategies of replenishing at low prices and making rigid purchases, and the spot market trading has been relatively light [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,040 yuan/ton or 4.16% from March 13. As of March 19, 2026, the LME aluminum closing price was 3,242 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 291 US dollars/ton or 8.24% from March 13 [13]. - As of March 20, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 141 yuan/ton or 4.98% from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 22,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845 yuan/ton or 3.57% from March 13 [16]. - As of March 20, 2026, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 24,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,070 yuan/ton or 4.26% from March 13. The spot discount was 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [30]. - **Position Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 585,532 lots, a decrease of 103,515 lots or 15.02% from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 65,831 lots from March 13 [19]. - **Price Difference Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was - 1,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the copper - aluminum futures price difference was 70,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,630 yuan/ton from March 13 [22]. - **Spot Price Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan was 2,765 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 2.22% from March 13; the average alumina price in Shanxi was 2,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 2.79% from March 13; the average alumina price in Guiyang was 2,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 2.79% from March 13. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton or 1.98% from March 13 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory** - As of March 19, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a decrease of 14,575 tons or 3.26% from March 12. As of March 20, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 452,044 tons, an increase of 35,619 tons or 8.55% from the previous week. As of March 19, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1,299,000 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons or 3% from March 12 [35]. - As of March 20, 2026, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 403,558 tons, an increase of 41,590 tons or 11.49% from March 13. As of March 19, 2026, the total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 273,050 tons, an increase of 250 tons or 0.09% from March 12 [35]. - **Bauxite** - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 24.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 310,000 tons. According to customs data, in February 2026, the monthly import of bauxite was 16.953 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.95% and a year - on - year increase of 18.05%. From January to February this year, the imported bauxite was 36.2058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum** - As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 650 yuan/ton. According to customs data, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and crushed materials was 194,102.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%; the export volume was 70.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [44]. - **Alumina** - In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative alumina output was 15.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. In December 2025, the alumina import volume was 227,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1389.71%; the alumina export volume was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.53% and a year - on - year increase of 10.53%. From January to December, the cumulative alumina import was 1.1978 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [46][47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 387,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 753,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.916 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 2.12%; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%; the start - up rate was 98.93%, an increase of 0.04% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.56% from the same period last year [54]. - In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 201,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 390,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.97%. In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 10,000 tons. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 23,300 tons. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, from January to January 2026, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 218,200 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Products** - In December 2025, the aluminum product output was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year flat of 0%. From January to February, the cumulative aluminum product output was 9.486 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In February 2026, the aluminum product import volume was 290,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%; the export volume was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to February, the aluminum product import volume was 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; the export volume was 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [57][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - In February 2026, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. In February 2026, the recycled aluminum alloy output was 270,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.47% [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - In December 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 93,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%; the export volume was 25,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.03%. From January to December, the aluminum alloy import volume was 1.0084 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.82%; the export volume was 284,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [64]. - **Real Estate Market** - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and a decrease of 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to February 2024, the new housing start - up area was 50.839 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.13%; the housing completion area was 63.2042 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% [67]. - **Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Production and Sales** - From January to February 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1,805,165 units, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%; the production volume was 1,672,445 units, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For building materials, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the price center moving down and showing a weak operation [1][2] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to remain high in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment [3] Summary of Different Sections Building Materials - In the Yun - Gui region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance time during the Spring Festival is mostly in mid - to late January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown period [1] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one mill started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the other mills will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Building materials continued to oscillate downward yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, causing the price center to move down continuously. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - Overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has declined. Due to energy, logistics, and geopolitical factors in Europe, the Middle East, etc., some production capacities have entered the cycle of production reduction or shutdown, strengthening the expectation of global supply - side contraction; domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains stable operation, and the overall supply side is stable [2] - Last week, the weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% compared with the previous week, continuing the post - festival recovery trend, with all sectors increasing compared with the previous week, and the industry has generally entered the normal production rhythm [2] - The power grid investment has entered the concentrated delivery period, the aluminum cable sector is strong, the operating rate has increased by 2 more percentage points to 65%, the demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and the enterprise production schedule has covered March, showing a clear high - level operation trend [2] - The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 72.9%. There are both the recovery of demand in the traditional peak season and the short - term support of battery foils, but the Middle East war situation has dragged down air - conditioner exports, affecting the production schedule of air - conditioner foils and restricting the further improvement space [2] - High aluminum prices and macro uncertainties are continuously suppressing the release elasticity of demand, and the quality of the "Golden March" traditional peak season remains to be seen [2] - On Monday, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas increased by 18,500 tons compared with the previous day, and all three regions showed a trend of inventory accumulation. In the short term, after the Spring Festival, aluminum ingots have continued seasonal inventory accumulation. Affected by the market's bullish sentiment, it is expected that the premium and discount will continue to shrink [2] - Although the domestic social inventory continues to accumulate, the current Middle East geopolitical situation is the focus of global attention. The geopolitical conflict situation is changeable, the risk premium of the global aluminum supply chain still exists, and the price volatility has increased. The overseas price support is strong, while the domestic market is in a stage of high inventory and weak reality, with weaker upward momentum than overseas, and the Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly aluminum, gold, and lithium carbonate, amid the backdrop of the ongoing US-Iran conflict and its implications for commodity prices and supply chains [1][2][3]. Key Points on Aluminum - **Aluminum Production Stages**: The evolution of the aluminum industry is divided into three stages: 1. **Initial Production Cuts**: Already observed with Qatar Aluminum shutting down 40% of its capacity (approximately 260,000 tons) due to gas supply interruptions [2][3]. 2. **Expected Supply Shortages**: By the end of March, a significant reduction in Middle Eastern aluminum production (9% of global capacity, about 7.05 million tons) is anticipated due to raw material shortages [3]. 3. **Energy Cost Transmission**: After 2-3 months, high energy costs are expected to impact European aluminum production, potentially leading to a 5% reduction in capacity [3]. - **Price Dynamics**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to high domestic utilization rates (>99%) and low inventory levels. Current prices for London aluminum have surpassed $3,500/ton, while Shanghai aluminum is at 25,000 CNY/ton, indicating potential for further increases towards the target of 28,000 CNY/ton [1][3]. Key Points on Gold - **Market Correction**: The logic surrounding "Petrodollar 2.0" is being corrected as the US struggles to control key oil-producing nations, which supports a bullish outlook for gold prices. Historical trends suggest that gold prices could rise significantly during periods of stagflation [4][5]. - **Investment Recommendation**: Gold is recommended as a strong investment due to its potential for upward movement amidst inflationary pressures [4][5]. Key Points on Lithium Carbonate - **Supply Constraints**: Recent disruptions in Zimbabwe's raw mineral exports and delays in the restart of the Ningde Times mine are expected to impact 15% of global lithium supply. This is likely to create a supply-demand imbalance, driving prices higher in the upcoming months [1][4][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The anticipated shortage during the traditional peak season (March-April) is expected to lead to healthier price increases for lithium carbonate [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - **Innovative Industry**: Considered undervalued, with a projected PE of 9x based on 788,000 tons of aluminum capacity in Inner Mongolia. The company is expected to see significant profit growth as aluminum prices rise [6][7]. - **Lingbao Gold**: Also viewed as undervalued, with potential for a valuation correction from below 8x to 12x, indicating over 50% upside potential as gold price dynamics stabilize [6][7]. - **Jiaxin International**: A tungsten mining company with expected production increases in 2026 and 2027, though its stock performance may depend on tungsten price movements [6][7]. Copper Market Insights - **Price Support**: The current bottom for copper prices is around 100,000 CNY/ton, with strong purchasing support from downstream buyers if prices drop to 95,000 CNY/ton. However, upward momentum may be slow due to external economic factors [8]. - **Future Outlook**: A clearer resolution of the US-Iran conflict is necessary for copper prices to gain traction, as market sentiment may shift towards cyclical commodities [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 15, 2026 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, overseas disturbances in primary aluminum continued to intensify. The price of AL was strong, outperforming AD, and the overall aluminum product line showed strength. Although the supply of scrap aluminum was becoming more abundant, its price remained firm, following the upward trend of primary aluminum. The rising cost put some pressure on the production of secondary aluminum enterprises, but with the price increase of ADC12, the theoretical profit improved significantly. In terms of supply and demand, secondary aluminum enterprises actively resumed production, and production was in the climbing stage. Downstream demand continued to recover, and enterprises reported stable orders. In the short term, due to cost support and moderate supply release, the price of AD may continue to fluctuate. [6] - As of March 13, the visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 13,500 tons to 132,600 tons compared with the previous week, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. From February 1 to 28, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.034 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 25.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.578 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Although the high - frequency retail data showed a significant year - on - year slowdown, the decline in the overall production and sales of automobiles was relatively limited. Considering the complex market influencing factors and the "low - start, high - finish" characteristic of domestic automobile sales in recent years, as well as the impact of the early purchase behavior of some consumers due to the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy at the end of last year, this cannot represent the long - term trend of automobile sales this year. [6] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - The report presents data on price spreads such as AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03, as well as information on capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest. [9] Trading End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The report calculates the cost of inter - period positive arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy. Taking the AD2604 and AD2605 contracts on March 13, 2026 as an example, the fixed cost is 12.78 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 82.40 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 95.18 yuan/ton. [13] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotes fluctuate around the Baotai price. The report calculates the cost of spot - futures arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy. The spot price reference is 24,700 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and other expenses, is 24,856.9 yuan/ton. [14][15] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production has dropped significantly, while social inventory has increased. [17] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82%. [18] Supply End - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been significantly raised, and the price spread between secondary and primary aluminum has fluctuated more intensely. [29] - The regional price spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. [34] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy enterprises has rebounded, but the monthly operating rate remains at a low level. [39] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum (91%), and the current cost estimate is above the break - even line. [44][45] - The factory and social inventories of cast aluminum alloy have both decreased slightly. [49] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is closed. [51] - Regarding secondary aluminum rods, data on production and inventory are presented. The production of secondary aluminum rods and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also provided. [54][55][56] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The year - on - year growth of automobile production is at a low level, raising concerns about automobile consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, small household appliances, and related price indices and inventory indices are presented. [59][60]