晨报 铝锭 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价区间偏强运行。中东地缘黑天鹅事件发生，霍尔木兹海 峡的航运已陷入停滞状态，承担中东原铝及相关原料主要海运任务，一旦 受阻将引发区域性供应危机并可能传导至全球。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业 ...

04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 01 周度评估 期货库存居高不下， 期现价格分化 氧化铝周报 2026/02/28 吴坤金（有色金属组） 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 CONTENTS 目录 03 供给端 06 库存 周度要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至2月27日下午3时，氧化铝指数周内下跌2.99%至2758元/吨，持仓增加11.6万手至52.5万手。本周期货注册仓单量持续走高，创历史新高，交割压力压制期货价格。 基差方面，山东现货价格报2590元/吨，贴水03合约139元/吨。月差方面，连1-连3月差收盘录得-15元/吨。 ◆ 现货价格：本周部分地区氧化铝现货价格小幅反弹，广西、贵州、河南、山东、山西和新疆地区现货价格分别持平、持平、上涨10元/吨、上涨35元/吨、上涨20元/吨、上涨50元 /吨。氧化铝检修产能增加，供应转紧，现货价格反弹。 ◆ 库存：周内氧化铝社会总库存累库3.1万吨至568.5万吨，其中电解铝厂内库存、氧化铝厂内库存、在途库存、港口库存分别去库1.9万吨、累库5万吨、去库1.8万吨、去库0 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口关闭。宏观方面，昨晚美联储理事米 | | | | | | | | | | 兰重申尽管劳动力市场有所改善，但 2026 年仍需降息 100 个基点，并倾向于尽早行动。 | | | | | | | | | | 昨晚尽管英伟达报告超预期，但市场对 ai 担忧不减，拖累纳指下行，进一步影响市场情 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 绪。库存方面，LME 铜库存增加 3950 吨至 259600 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 9.98 吨至 | | | | | | | | | | | 545267 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 1413 吨至 289219 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 14218 吨。需求方 | | 铜 | | 面，关注节后开工情况。Ai 担忧下美股动荡拖累市场情绪，短期仍不排除宏观情绪退潮 | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral investment ratings are neutral for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, while the arbitrage strategy is to go long on aluminum and short on aluminum alloy [8] Group 2: Core Views - For electrolytic aluminum, the downstream has entered the holiday period, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions and reduced absolute price fluctuations on the futures market. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in March. Social inventory is expected to exceed seasonal levels, exerting significant pressure on prices. Although there are expectations for the Two Sessions after the holiday, aluminum prices are unlikely to perform well due to the expected inventory pressure. In the short term, it is advisable to avoid risks as the long holiday approaches. In the long term, consumption resilience and strength are expected to remain positive, especially in the export market, and the macro - environment of simultaneous easing at home and abroad remains strong, making long - term aluminum prices more likely to rise than fall [6] - For alumina, India has completed a 30,000 - ton transaction at an FOB price of $311.5 per ton, with a price increase of $3.5 per ton compared to the previous period for March shipments. There may still be supply disruptions at an alumina plant in Hebei in the spot market. Although the impact on roasting volume is not high, the long - term contract gap may need to be filled through additional purchases. Coupled with the current substantial profits in electrolytic aluminum, the short - term spot price may remain firm. However, the actual domestic supply pressure has not eased, supply has not been substantially affected, and the pattern of static supply surplus remains unchanged, with social inventory continuing to increase. The prices of domestic northern ore have declined, the alumina plants' enthusiasm for ore procurement has decreased, and the import ore quotes are also falling, making it difficult for the cost side to provide strong support [6][7] Group 3: Key Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 23,350 yuan/ton, a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 160 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 23,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount has changed by 40 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 23,430 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount has changed by - 40 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,795 yuan/ton, closed at 23,610 yuan/ton, a change of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 23,795 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 23,500 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 181,308 lots, and the open interest was 159,738 lots [2] Inventory - As of February 12, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 892,000 tons, a change of 35,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 200,654 tons, a change of 33,088 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 483,550 tons, a change of - 2,200 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot - On February 12, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,635 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,670 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was $311 per ton [2] Alumina Futures - On February 12, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,850 yuan/ton, closed at 2,808 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton or - 0.35% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a maximum price of 2,855 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 261,414 lots, and the open interest was 296,788 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On February 12, 2026, the procurement price of Baotai civil - use primary aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum was 17,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 68,500 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 92,700 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 22,468 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 632 yuan/ton [5]

"山雨欲来风满楼"，近日美国非农就业数据如一颗重磅炸弹投入金融市场，引发连锁反应，而铝市也在 这场风暴中面临新的变局，价格上方承压，进入震荡格局。 周四，沪铝主力2603合约窄幅震荡，截止10:15分休盘报价每吨23560元，下跌15元，跌幅0.06%；早间 市场交投冷淡，持货商出货压力较大，下游企业多数放假，仅剩部分及散户如实观望，询价寥寥，整体 成交氛围表现孱弱。长江有色金属网数据显示，长江现货A00铝锭报价每吨23360元，下跌100元，现货 报贴水205元； 需求端则呈现出一片"萧瑟"景象。随着春节临近，下游商家陆续放假，市场交投愈发清淡。下游铝加工 企业基本进入假期停工状态，现货市场活跃度明显下降。春节前金融市场交易活跃度降低，沪铝持仓量 前期自高位回落后未现回升，进一步反映出市场参与热情的降温。 库存方面，铝锭社库累积，成为铝价上方的又一座"大山"。春节前现货补库不足，抑制了市场交投，使 得铝价在供应增加和需求疲软的双重夹击下，上行动力匮乏。 价格走势：窄幅震荡，多空博弈"暗流涌动" 受非农数据和基本面因素共同影响，沪铝多数合约承压后呈震荡走势。隔夜伦铝虽因美伊局势紧张推动 油价上扬而收涨0.39 ...

每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23280，基差-235，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨28369吨至245140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 | ...

证券研究报告 港股通 南山铝业国际 (2610 HK) 兼具稳定现金流与高成长性 2026 年 2 月 10 日│中国香港 首次覆盖南山铝业国际给予买入评级，给予 26 年 PE13 倍，对应目标价 78.18 港元。公司是东南亚领先的氧化铝生产商，已形成 400 万吨氧化铝产 能，此外公司计划新建 25 万吨/年电解铝产能，并远期规划建设 50 万吨/年 电解铝项目，公司氧化铝业务利润稳定叠加 2028 年之后新建电解铝项目或 贡献较大业绩增量，我们看好公司未来利润实现稳步增长。 公司当前主营氧化铝业务成本优势显著，构筑稳固现金流 公司主营业务为氧化铝生产与销售，于 2025 年 3 月成功在香港联交所主板 上市，控股股东为 A 股上市公司南山铝业。截至 25 年年底，公司在印尼宾 坦岛建成并投产年产能合计 400 万吨的氧化铝生产基地。受益于印尼丰富 的铝土矿资源禀赋及铝土矿出口禁令政策，公司氧化铝原料端成本优势显 著，根据我们测算，2024 年铝土矿采购均价仅 35.0 美元/吨，显著低于几 内亚和澳大利亚 CIF 均价的 76.5 美元/吨和 62. 5 美元/吨。低成本优势导致 公司氧化铝销售业务盈 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260210 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好回暖，主要资产普遍反弹 海外方面，日本执政党在 2 月众议院选举获压倒性胜利，首相称食品减税将通过非税收 入与补贴审查筹资、不发行赤字国债，日股涨近 4%，日元兑美元升值 0.85%。贝森特称即 便沃什执掌美联储，缩表亦难加速，在压低按揭利率目标下，美联储将以金融稳定优先，避 免激进收紧。市场风险偏好继续修复，美股全线收涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.19%，金银分 别修复至 5030、82 美元，铜价、油价延续收涨 1%+。本周关注美国 1 月非农、CPI 以及 12 月零售数据。 国内方面，上周处于经济数据与政策真空期，国内市场跟随海外进一步修复，A 股周一 延续修复，上证指数低开高走收于 4123 点，双创板块领涨，红利风格相对较弱，两市超 4700 只个股收涨、赚钱效应极好，成交额小幅升至 2.27 万亿元，两融余额边际下降，中证 500、 中证 1000ETF 显著净流入。市场正从月初的大跌中逐渐修复：一方面受海外科技股反弹 ...

沪铝期货价格在2月初大幅下挫、释放下跌动能后，近日主力合约价格围绕23500元/吨一线弱势震荡。 多空双方在宏观情绪扰动与基本面季节性淡季的双重影响下持续拉锯，市场处于长期向好预期与短期承 压现实之间的博弈阶段。 全球经济预期上修与国内政策主动作为 当前全球与中国经济呈现外修内稳的态势。全球方面，国际货币基金组织于1月上调2026年全球经济增 长预期至3.3%，其中美国经济预期调至2.4%，主要驱动力来自人工智能投资及贸易局势缓和。在此背 景下，主要央行政策进入观望期：美联储暂停降息，将利率维持在3.50%~3.75%；欧洲央行虽维持利率 不变，但经济复苏动力仍显不足。反观国内，宏观政策正积极靠前发力以稳固内需，财政支出力度只增 不减，货币政策则保留降准降息空间并强调精准支持实体经济。当前经济运行在实现增长目标的同时， 也呈现出供给强于需求、外需强于内需的阶段性特征。这一系列政策的核心在于激发内生活力，推动经 济结构向更均衡、可持续的方向发展。 国内电解铝供给温和扩张 国内电解铝市场正面临供需结构变化带来的显著库存压力。据SMM统计，1月国内电解铝产量为379.86 万吨，同比增长2.7%，环比增长0.5%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic alumina inventory continues to rise, reaching 5.62 million tons, indicating a robust supply of raw materials for electrolytic aluminum plants [1][3] Group 1: Alumina Supply and Inventory - The total inventory of alumina in China has increased to 5.62 million tons, with electrolytic aluminum plants holding 3.838 million tons [1][3] - As of last week, the alumina plant's bauxite inventory increased by 264,000 tons to 58.155 million tons, reflecting a stable supply of bauxite [1][2] - Domestic bauxite production in January was 5.34 million tons, showing significant growth year-on-year, except for a decline in Shanxi due to environmental and resource factors [1][2] Group 2: Alumina Prices and Market Dynamics - Alumina prices have remained volatile, with a low of 2,600 yuan/ton and a high of around 3,000 yuan/ton since December [1] - The current spot price of alumina is weak, with prices around 2,646 yuan/ton, and recent transactions in Xinjiang and Guangxi showing prices of 2,920 yuan/ton and 2,620 yuan/ton respectively [3][4] - The average theoretical profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry has expanded to over 7,000 yuan/ton, driven by weak alumina prices and declining auxiliary costs [4] Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - The total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina remains stable at 11.032 million tons/year, with an operating capacity of 8.588 million tons/year [2] - The operating rate has increased by 0.53 percentage points to 77.84%, with slight increases in Henan, Shanxi, and Guangxi, while Guizhou saw a minor decrease [2] - Despite some production cuts due to maintenance, the overall operating capacity of alumina remains high, contributing to significant supply pressure [2][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The alumina market is expected to continue facing downward pressure on prices due to high inventory levels and stable bauxite resources [4] - The electrolytic aluminum production is projected to reach 45.016 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [3]