2025年9月4日，国内铝棒两地库存方面，广东铝棒库存6.60万吨，无锡铝棒库存3.00万吨，合计9.60万 吨，较上期库存下跌0.1万吨。 据调研，2025年8月中国原铝产量初值378.79万吨，同比上涨2.6%，环比上涨0.29%；8月平均日产量为 12.22万吨，环比增加0.03万吨（实产天数31天）。 一、行情回顾 上一交易日，沪铝期货主力合约报收于20710元/吨，环比-0.02%。 二、基本面汇总 9月4日国内主流消费地铝棒库存14.00万吨，较周一下跌0.3万吨，较上周四增长0.6万吨。 三、机构观点 光大期货：金九旺季前夕下游多板块备货启动速度较快，电解铝旺季周期内需求存在超预期可能，铝产 业利润继续由上游向下游转移。在9月美联储降息和国内旺季双驱动下，电解铝存在较强上行助力。铝 合金旺季错配下，远月存在价差继续修复空间。 一德期货：铝加工环节开工率回升，旺季预期增加，支撑铝价；不过铝锭库存仍弱于季节性，且终端消 费未明显启动，成本还有降低，向上驱动不足；维持区间震荡，关注库存变动。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-03 电解铝宏观微观共振向上 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20710元/吨，较上一交易日变化90元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化10元/吨；中原A00铝价20570元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-160元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20650元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-09-02日沪铝主力合约开于20650元/吨，收于20720元/吨，较上一交易日变化50元/吨，最 高价达20755元/吨，最低价达到20640元/吨。全天交易日成交103466手，全天交易日持仓213947手。 库存方面，截止2025-09-02，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存62.3万吨，较上一期变化0.3吨，仓单库存58654 吨，较上一交易日变化125吨，LME铝库存479600吨，较上一交易日变化-1450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-09-02SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3165元/吨，山东价格录得3135元/吨，河南价格录得 3180元/吨，广西价格录得3 ...

王文虎（从业资格证号：F03087656，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472） 董晓妮（从业资格证号：F0287405， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0017234） 张 蕾（从业资格证号：F03086068，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019377） 氧化铝 中国铝业旗下桂西那豆沉积型铝土矿开始建设且预计年产80万实物吨，清镇市铝土矿循环利用项目一 期50万吨高硫铝土矿脱硫6月启动投料生产铝精矿44万吨/年，使国产和几内亚(澳洲)铝土矿价格环比升高 (略降)，或使国内铝土矿9月生产(进口)量环比减少(减少)； 中国氧化铝产能开工率(生产量)较上周下降(减少)，使中国氧化铝和电解铝厂(上期所)氧化铝库存量 较上周减少、增加(增加)，或使中国氧化铝9月生产量环比减少，中国氧化铝较电解铝8月运行产能匹配过 剩环比扩大，但壹石通的重庆年产9,800吨导热用球形氧化铝项目或于25年9月底正式投产； www.hongyuanqh.com 有色金属月报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储9月降息预期几无悬念 传统消费淡季转旺季支撑铝价 2025年09月02日 宏源期货 金属研究团队 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万 ...

截至发稿，天山铝业市值为464亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——个人消费贷贴息明日开闸！贷30万元最多可享贴息3000元，一文读懂→ （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，天山铝业（SZ 002532，收盘价：9.98元）9月1日晚间发布公告称，公司第六届第十七次 董事会会议于2025年9月1日在上海市浦东新区张杨路2389弄3号普洛斯大厦9层会议室召开。会议审议了 《关于召开2025年第一次临时股东大会的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，天山铝业的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比100.0%。 ...

Group 1 - The company Tianshan Aluminum Industry Group Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its share repurchase plan as of August 31, 2025 [1] - The repurchase plan was approved on April 9, 2025, with a total repurchase fund of no less than 200 million yuan and no more than 300 million yuan, aiming to buy back approximately 20 million to 30 million shares, which represents 0.43% to 0.64% of the total share capital [2] - The repurchase will be conducted within six months from the board's approval and the shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentive plans [2] Group 2 - As of August 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 15 million shares, accounting for 0.32% of the total share capital, with a total payment of 120 million yuan [3] - The highest and lowest transaction prices for the repurchased shares were both 8 yuan per share [3] - The company confirmed that the repurchase complies with the established plan and relevant legal regulations, and will continue to advance the repurchase plan based on market conditions [4]

01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 铝月报（2025年8月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-8-29 目录 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 后市研判 PART 01 氧化铝方面，国产矿价格企稳山西矿权出让登记变动对国内铝土矿产量影响有限，关注即将发布的新一轮《十大重点行业稳增长工作方案》中有色金 属相关内容会否涉及氧化铝；几内亚政府收回备忘录、产能未能增加雨季影响持续下月关注当地投票情况。而目前氧化铝运行产能处于较高水平，产 量处于高位，进口氧化铝流入可能性上升下半年国内外新投产能预计也将继续释放，氧化铝产量或将继续攀升，供应过剩预期较强，价格上方承压。 ，氧化铝产量或将继续攀升，供应过剩预期较强，价格上方承压。 电解铝方面，9月份海外端聚焦在美国的 9月份海外端聚焦在美国的 月份海外端聚焦在美国的9月议息会议，目前认为 月议息会议，目前认为 月议息会议，目前认为9月降息是大概率事件，关注相较于 月降息是大概率事件，关注相较于 月降息是大概率事件，关注相较于6月点阵图的下降幅度。关注下周非农就业数据， 或有进一步指引。供应 或有进一步 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-28 海外氧化铝价格成交重心下移 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20840元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价20660元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-200元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20790元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-25元/吨至-70元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-27日沪铝主力合约开于20730元/吨，收于20810元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，最 高价达20950元/吨，最低价达到20725元/吨。全天交易日成交212688手，全天交易日持仓269866手。 库存方面，截止2025-08-27，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.6万吨，较上一期变化2.0吨，仓单库存57351 吨，较上一交易日变化1077吨，LME铝库存481250吨，较上一交易日变化3175吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-27SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3195元/吨，山东价格录得3170元/吨，河南价格录得 3205元/吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [11] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [11] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of limited supply, high industry profits are not a factor restricting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term upward movement of aluminum prices requires resonance between a favorable macro - environment and strong micro - consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks caused by inventory accumulation, macro factors, and tariff impacts. For alumina, the supply is in surplus, and the prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken. For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and there are still opportunities for spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,625 yuan/ton, closed at 20,770 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,800 yuan/ton and a low of 20,620 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,160 lots, and the open interest was 248,343 lots [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, with a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 56,670 tons, down 474 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 478,725 tons, down 800 tons from the previous trading day [3] 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On August 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,190 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,215 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3] 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,141 yuan/ton, closed at 3,184 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 1.34%. The high was 3,216 yuan/ton, and the low was 3,141 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 455,135 lots, and the open interest was 193,845 lots [3] 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 25, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil cast aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical cast aluminum was 15,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,300 tons [5] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. In the long run, under the restricted supply, high profits are not a factor restricting price increases. In the short term, price increases need a favorable macro - environment and strong consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks [7] 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, the ex - factory price in Henan was 3,200 yuan/ton for 3,000 tons, and two transactions in Shanxi were both 3,180 yuan/ton, totaling 2,500 tons. The arrival price of a regular tender in Xinjiang for 10,000 tons was 3,450 - 3,460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week. On the cost side, due to the decline in rainy - season shipments, the supply in the bulk market has decreased, and the transaction center of the ore end is at 75 US dollars/ton, while the sea freight is 23.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The bauxite price is in a stable and volatile trend. The industry still has smelting profit, and the supply is in surplus. The prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken, the import window has opened compared with the southern domestic prices, and the situation of a weaker north and a stronger south in the domestic market remains. Currently, the futures price is basically at par with the spot price, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of the spot market transaction price [8][9] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 410 yuan/ton. Consumption is starting to transition from the off - season to the peak season, and both the spot market price spread and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal recovery trend. Spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract can still be concerned [10] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's pressure or potential dismissal of Fed officials strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning into the peak season may lead to a relatively strong and volatile aluminum price [1]. - For alumina, the rise in domestic and imported bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the supply - demand expectation remains loose, limiting the upside space for alumina prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season in China, along with low social inventories, may cause the Shanghai aluminum price to be cautiously strong. For aluminum alloy, the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and tight scrap aluminum supply may lead to a cautiously strong aluminum alloy price [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - demand situation**: The revocation of bauxite mining licenses in Guinea and the start of domestic bauxite recycling projects may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in August, with a loose supply - demand expectation. New alumina production capacity projects in China may increase domestic alumina production in August, and the matching surplus of alumina over electrolytic aluminum's operating capacity in July has expanded. The trial production of the Indonesian project of Nanshan Aluminum and the closure of the import window may reduce imports and increase exports of alumina in August, leading to a decrease in port inventories [2]. - **Price analysis**: The increase in bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the loose supply - demand expectation limits the upside space for alumina prices. The alumina basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the contango structure of the futures contracts is due to the increase in production costs and the expectation of loose supply [2][11][25]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - demand situation**: The restart of electrolytic aluminum projects in China may increase domestic production in August. The recovery of production capacity in overseas electrolytic aluminum plants may increase imports in August. The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading processing enterprises has increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased but remains at a low level [3][47]. - **Price analysis**: The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season in China may cause the Shanghai aluminum price to be cautiously strong. The Shanghai aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the LME aluminum spreads show different positive and negative situations, all within reasonable ranges [3][40][43]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - demand situation**: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China is decreasing. However, the positive spread between refined and scrap aluminum in China may decrease domestic scrap aluminum production and increase imports in August. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in August, and the import and export of unforged aluminum alloys may decrease [5][72][85]. - **Price analysis**: The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and tight scrap aluminum supply may lead to a cautiously strong aluminum alloy price. The basis and spreads of cast aluminum alloy are positive and within reasonable ranges, and the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [5][68][71]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors go short on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [5][68][71]. Downstream Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased compared with last week, mainly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season [97][99]. - Among them, the capacity utilization rates of aluminum cables, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foils have increased, while the capacity utilization rate of aluminum profiles has remained flat [101][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Alumina is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term oversupply situation. It is advisable to go short at high prices in the mid - term, with a short - term operating range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton [2][7]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling if demand does not improve [7]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are predicted to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum is likely to converge, with a reference operating range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (8.18 - 8.22) - Alumina prices were weak this week due to inventory accumulation and rising warehouse receipts. With narrowing profits, cost support is strong, and the price is expected to oscillate narrowly next week [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices oscillated narrowly. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations cooled, while domestic policies provided support. Supply increased slowly, costs decreased slightly, and demand was the core issue. High prices restricted short - term purchases, but inventory accumulation slowed down [10]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices also oscillated narrowly. The market improved marginally, with social inventory decreasing for the first time since mid - April. Tight scrap aluminum supply supported costs, and some factories reduced production due to tax policy adjustments. Demand was structurally differentiated, and orders showed signs of improvement [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Terminal Demand - US employment data in July was worse than expected, and previous data was revised down significantly. The labor market cooled significantly. The probability of a September interest - rate cut increased to 93.4% due to relatively mild inflation pressure [13][17][18]. - China's core CPI in July increased year - on - year to 0.8%, indicating continuous recovery of domestic demand. The PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, mainly affected by the traditional off - season and extreme weather [24][30]. - Real estate sales weakened on a weekly basis. From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year. New construction and investment are expected to continue to decline in 2025 [36][40]. - China's automobile production and sales data in July were strong. From January to July, production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12% respectively year - on - year. The inventory warning index improved, indicating better market sentiment [41][45]. 3. Industry Supply - Demand Fundamentals Aluminum Bauxite - In July, imports increased by 10.7% month - on - month. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports will gradually emerge. Domestic production is relatively stable, with limited short - term supply increase [47][50]. - Domestic bauxite prices remained stable this week, while the import bulk market had few transactions. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the pressure of barge transportation is expected to appear at the end of the month [51][61]. Alumina - In July, the profitability improved, and production increased by 5.4% month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The market is in a stock - piling trend, with inventory accumulating in factories and warehouse receipts increasing [62][66][68]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In July, production increased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased significantly. The operating capacity in Yunnan increased due to capacity replacement. Net imports increased in July but are expected to decline slightly in August [72][76][84]. - This week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises showed signs of recovery, mainly due to new orders in the automotive and photovoltaic sectors. The short - term inventory still has the expectation of accumulation, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.8 tons, with a slower rate of accumulation [85][91][94]. - From January to July, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [96]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - In July, scrap aluminum production increased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the prices of domestic and imported scrap aluminum were firm. The industry's operating rate was 53.0% this week, with increased differentiation. The import volume in July reached a four - year low and is expected to remain low in August [99][109][110]. - The weekly inventory accumulation of cast aluminum alloy slowed down. The price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with cost support and marginal improvement in demand during the off - peak to peak season transition [117][121].