挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 行 业 研 究 / 有 色 金 有色金属行业周报 关注国内铜资源增储带来的投资机会 2026 年 01 月 22 日 【投资要点】 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：孟宪博 证书编号：S1160525030003 证券分析师：张恒浩 证书编号：S1160525090001 相对指数表现 -10% 16% 42% 68% 94% 120% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 有色金属 沪深300 相关研究 《金属价格普遍偏强，关注结构性配置机 会》 2026.01.14 《拉美局势紧张，安全资产黄金或受益》 2026.01.06 《宏观预期乐观，金属价格持续走强》 2025.12.29 《美国通胀压力边际缓解，看好贵金属价 格表现》 2025.12.23 《铜铝价格波动加大，关注钢铁政策延续》 2025.12.15 属 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 铜：关注国内铜资源增储带来的投资机会。当周（2026/1/9-2026/1/16） LME 铜/SHFE 铜收于 13000、100770（美）元/吨，周环比-0.5% ...

基本面方面，供应端内蒙古和新疆新增产能逐步释放，但整体增量有限，供应压力不大；海外供应端仍 存在扰动因素，对铝价形成支撑。需求端，现货铝价连续四个交易日下跌，虽能刺激下游备货补库需 求，但现货交易面改善有限。加之当前处于消费淡季，对消费回升程度形成抑制，预计本周铝锭社会库 存将继续累积，铝价上方仍有压力。今日现货市场成交弱稳运行，持续到货导致库存累积，持货商压力 增大，下游贸易商入市采购迟缓，接货需求有限，仅靠下游逢低补货难以支撑也无力带动整体交易，今 日成交乏力尽显。 综合来看，宏观层面多空因素激烈博弈，市场避险情绪抬头，基本面供应压力抑制铝价，沪铝将维持高 位震荡调整态势。 长江有色金属网www.ccmn.cn 电话：0592-5668838 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝偏弱下调，LME三个月北京时间14：50报于3141.5美元/吨，较上一交易日 结算价跌24美元/吨，跌幅0.76%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2603合约探底回升后再次回落；开盘价报24020元/吨，盘中最高24285元/ 吨，最低23715元/吨，昨日结算23970元/吨，尾盘收至23950元/吨 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23,950.00 | -140.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,671.00 | -62.00↓ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -115.00 | -15.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -128.00 | -7.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 332,750.00 | -4347.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 502,994.00 | +12005.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 32,750.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 217,143.00 | +21062.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,158.50 | +24.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 485,000.00 | -3000.00↓ | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-20 氧化铝现货价格持续回落 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23870元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-160元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价23740元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-290元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23900元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化20元/吨至-130元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-19日沪铝主力合约开于23950元/吨，收于24090元/吨，较上一交易日变化-95元/吨，最 高价达24175元/吨，最低价达到23760元/吨。全天交易日成交424687手，全天交易日持仓337097手。 库存方面，截止2026-01-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存74.9万吨，较上一期变化1.3万吨，仓单库存141475 吨，较上一交易日变化725吨，LME铝库存485000吨，较上一交易日变化-3000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-01-19SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2620元/吨，山东价格录得2570元/吨，河南价格录得 265 ...

电解铝 ：商品情绪转弱 铝市场中期仍看好 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 ◼ 衍生品：暂时观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 宏观：美联储降息预期、地缘政治风险叠加去美元化预期推动资金青睐实物资产有色金属，去年四季度以来资金持续流入推动铝价随板块 上涨，同时关注伊朗地区地缘政治风险。但近日市场风险偏好有所变化，前期强势上涨品种的市场氛围降温带动沪铝资金流出。商品市场 情绪转弱，引发多品种回调。 ◼ 产业供应：供给端刚性预期明显，安哥拉新项目如期投产，越南电解铝项目投产预期从二季度推迟至7月初；欧洲部分产能寻求复产但仍 处于前期规划阶段、所处国家寻求欧盟补贴以应对高昂的电力成本。负基差较大带动短期铸锭增加、铝棒加工费短期转负，后续持续关注 铝水就地转化率。 ◼ 产业需求：表观需求短期有所 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market in 2025 experienced significant changes, primarily driven by valuation increases across various sectors, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading the gains [4] - The overall A-share market performance can be divided into four phases: Phase 1 (Jan-Mar): Technology concepts led the "tech bull"; Phase 2 (Apr-Jun): External shocks and internal support boosted the market; Phase 3 (Jun-Nov): Liquidity and economic conditions resonated, accelerating trends; Phase 4 (Nov-Dec): A period of consolidation after the main index rise [4] - Key characteristics of the 2025 A-share market include a new level of total market capitalization, continuous inflow of new funds, and a shift in market structure, with the electronics sector reaching the highest market value for the first time [4] Group 2 - Yonyou Network expects a reduction in losses for 2025, projecting a net profit of -1.3 billion to -1.39 billion yuan, with revenue expected to be between 9.17 billion and 9.27 billion yuan [6][8] - The company is transitioning to a subscription-based business model, which is expected to impact revenue growth rates, despite a recovery in contract signing amounts starting from the second quarter of 2025 [7] - The launch of the BIP "Ontology-Driven Agent" aims to enhance AI capabilities in enterprises, shifting from probabilistic generation to logical execution, providing a new foundation for high-quality AI applications [10][11] Group 3 - Ant Group's collaboration with Weining Health has led to the rapid deployment of AI products, with the monthly active users of the Ant Health app exceeding 30 million, indicating strong market penetration [12][13] - Weining Health's WiNEX series AI products have been implemented in nearly 150 medical institutions, enhancing clinical decision-making and documentation efficiency [14] - The Chinese medical software system market is projected to reach 11.5 billion yuan by 2029, with Weining Health focusing on domestic innovation and adaptation [15][16] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China reported stable loan rates and increased corporate loan issuance, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [18][19] - The December social financing data showed a year-on-year increase in new loans, primarily driven by corporate loans, suggesting a robust lending environment [19][20] Group 5 - The UK AR7 offshore wind auction results exceeded expectations, with a total auction volume of 8.4GW, marking a 58% increase from the previous round, indicating strong future demand for offshore wind projects [21][22] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to benefit from increased orders as a result of the AR7 auction outcomes, with significant growth anticipated in the offshore wind sector [24] Group 6 - Tencent Holdings is projected to achieve a revenue of 195.4 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments [25][26] - The company is expected to maintain robust performance across its core businesses, with AI capabilities enhancing its overall ecosystem [27] Group 7 - The coal market is expected to see price support due to seasonal demand and supply constraints, with current prices at 695 yuan/ton [28][31] - The coking coal market is experiencing a recovery in demand as steel production increases, leading to a rise in coking coal prices [29][30] Group 8 - The State Grid's investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to reach 4 trillion yuan, significantly boosting the power equipment supply chain [41] - The focus on new energy systems and AI integration in power operations is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the growth of emerging industries [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment is mixed, with domestic policies aimed at boosting demand and liquidity, while external factors like the US Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook are causing caution in the market [7]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, driven by high prices and reduced downstream purchasing willingness [8]. - Long-term prospects for the aluminum industry remain positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, leading to a sustained high level of industry activity [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 16, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,134.0 per ton, down $2.0 from the previous week but up $530.0 year-on-year, reflecting a 20.4% increase [25]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 23,925.0 CNY per ton, down 405.0 CNY week-on-week but up 3,740.0 CNY year-on-year, indicating an 18.5% increase [25]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 24,000.0 CNY per ton, down 60.0 CNY week-on-week but up 4,040.0 CNY year-on-year, a 20.2% increase [25]. 2. Production - In December 2025, the aluminum production reached 3.781 million tons, an increase of 144,000 tons month-on-month and 197,000 tons year-on-year, marking a 5.5% increase [55]. - The alumina production for December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, up 80,000 tons month-on-month and 18.1% year-on-year [55]. 3. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.77 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 11.4 [6]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.1 [6]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.56 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 12.2 [6]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.92 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 14.4 [6]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.07 CNY for 2026 and a PE ratio of 15.7 [6].

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年01月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：高价抑制需求，关注需求负反馈 强弱分析：中性 精废价差小幅回落 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 数据来源：SMM ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 PART 1 聚焦资源和传统制造定价权提升 建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合波动。 图片来源：摄图网 继续聚焦资源和传统制造 定价权的提升 裘翔 张铭楷 陈峰 高玉森 陈泽平 刘春彤 策略聚焦 从当前的量价和风偏指标来看，预计主题、小票轮动的震荡上行格局可能还会延续到两会前后，直至内 需预期的上修，市场才会回到基本面驱动状态。站在全年维度，真正具备持续入场体量的配置型资金今 年对权益组合降低波动的诉求是更高的，需要考虑的是这部分可持续的"大钱"会持续流向的方向。配置 上，建议资源和传统制造定价权提升逻辑打底，增配非银金融，兼顾反共识品种降低组合波动。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果或经济复苏不及预期；海内 外宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期。 关注情绪上行的主题轮动板块 刘易 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 白弘伟 主题聚焦 从催化因素和时序上看，国产算力、AI应用、合成生物、人形机器人、自动驾驶的主题热情 ...

2026-1-16 中航期货 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 分 | 6 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国2025 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各 | 消 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 加5. | 险 | 对 | 定 | 结 | 幅 | 万 | 人 | 工 | 风 | 稳 | 控 | 9 | 小 | 个 | 增 | 加 ...