研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/10/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,965.00 -35.00 | +55.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,810.00 -33.00 | +4.00↑ -8.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 234,936.00 | +3263.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 351,214.00 | -3945. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a volatile and consolidated manner, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to remain high in the short - term, with inventory slightly decreasing [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown from mid - January is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished product continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - The US government shutdown has lasted 20 days, delaying key economic data release and creating a data vacuum before the Fed's policy meeting [2] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level. Shanxi reduced production by 400,000 tons due to rainy - season supply issues, but there is still an oversupply. Some high - cost enterprises are in the red, but the industry as a whole still has a profit margin. The spot market is in a state of loose supply, and the alumina price is expected to remain weak [3] - Last week, the average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, cable, and profile have different operating rate trends and face various challenges [3] - On October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

证券研究报告 2025年10月19日 有色金属 铝行业周报：去库趋势延续，价格高位震荡 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -16% 2% 20% 38% 56% 74% 2024/10 2025/01 2025/04 2025/07 2025/10 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：需求提升带动库存去化，有色金属行业稳增长工作方案出台 （推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-09-28 《铝行业周报：美联储降息落地，国内需求继续提升（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-09-22 《铝行业周报：旺季需求继续提升，铝锭库存拐点初现（推荐）*有色金属*王 璇，陈晨》——2025-09-14 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 9.6% | 41.2% | 65.0% | | 沪深300 | -0.8% | 11.9 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：废铝供应偏紧，价格区间震荡 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Special report on Guota ...

1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - **Date**: October 17, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Views - Copper is expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties [8]. - Lithium carbonate is predicted to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan, with short - term supply - demand balance and continued inventory reduction, but facing increasing macro risks [25]. - Aluminum is likely to remain high - level volatile, affected by macro emotions and the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, with the import window closed [41][45]. - Nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged and the price under pressure, supported at the 120,000 - yuan level [74][79]. - Zinc will operate with a weak and volatile trend, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with overseas low - inventory providing support and domestic weak fundamentals restricting the rebound [104][105]. 4. Summary by Metal Copper 4.1.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 82,300 and 86,830 yuan, with total positions decreasing by about 5.5% to 546,000 lots. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions and market sentiment [7]. - LME copper traded between 10,463 and 10,864.5 US dollars. As of October 10, the net long positions of funds increased by about 5% to 59,179 lots [7]. 4.1.2 Operation Suggestion - Copper prices will continue to be supported by fundamentals but face increasing macro uncertainties, and are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern next week [8]. 4.1.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports increased, and the import of copper concentrates and its ores in August 2025 increased. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [11][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly开工 rate of scrap copper rods and refined copper rods increased. The开工 rate of wire and cable and enameled wire also rose, but the new orders of enameled wire have not fully recovered [15][17]. - **Spot**: Domestic copper inventories increased by 1.84 to 275,000 tons, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 0.72 to 97,700 tons. LME + COMEX inventories increased by 2,701 tons to 450,000 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate 4.2.1 Market Review - The futures price of lithium carbonate decreased, with the main contract trading between 71,800 and 76,840 yuan, and total positions increasing by 10.7% to 755,000 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate moved up, and the market trading activity was flat [24]. 4.2.2 Operation Suggestion - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to grow, and the demand shows obvious peak - season characteristics. The fundamentals support lithium carbonate, but considering the increasing macro risks, the main contract is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan [25]. 4.2.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 21,066 tons, and the production from various raw material sources increased. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica increased [25][30]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of battery cells also moved up, and the demand in the battery field is growing [31][34]. - **Spot**: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons [35][36]. Aluminum 4.3.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, maintaining a high - level volatile pattern, mainly affected by macro emotions. The futures price of alumina followed the sector down, and the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory in the peak season continued to decline [41]. 4.3.2 Operation Suggestion - Wait for the callback to buy, and pay attention to controlling risks. The price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable, the price of alumina is under pressure, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminum [45]. 4.3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite market is stable, with supply being temporarily tight in some areas. The price of imported bauxite continues to decline [46][47]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina continues to fall, with an oversupply situation. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the import window is open [49][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost decreased slightly this week, and the profit increased slightly [57]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of aluminum profiles increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [64][65]. - **Processing**: The operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises remained flat this week, showing a general performance in the peak season [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly [71]. Nickel 4.4.1 Market Review - Shanghai nickel continued to move in a low - level volatile pattern, affected by macro factors. The futures market maintained a contango structure, and the import window remained closed [74]. 4.4.2 Operation Suggestion - Shanghai nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged. Pay attention to overseas market changes and policy disturbances in Indonesia [79]. 4.4.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased [80]. - **Nickel Iron**: In September, the production of Indonesian nickel iron increased year - on - year, and the production of domestic nickel iron decreased. The import of nickel iron increased [86][89]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowinning nickel is rapidly expanding. In September, the production of refined nickel increased slightly, and the downstream demand was less than expected [91][92]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts continued to rise this week. In September, the production of nickel sulfate increased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in October [95][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of stainless steel increased this week, and the market demand is weak, with the futures price falling [101]. Zinc 4.5.1 Market Review - The US dollar index continued to weaken, and LME zinc had strong short - term bottom support. Shanghai zinc gave back the post - holiday gains, and the import window has been deeply closed since July [104]. 4.5.2 Operation Suggestion - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and is expected to operate with a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage and the actual export volume [105]. 4.5.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The processing fee of domestic zinc ore has peaked and declined. The production of refined zinc in October is expected to increase month - on - month, and the import window remains closed while the export window is approaching to open [115][116]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanized, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased to some extent, but the terminal demand is still weak [117][118]. - **Spot**: Domestic zinc inventories decreased by 0.04 to 162,700 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased to less than 40,000 tons [119].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the impact of negative factors on the decline of aluminum prices is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 15, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was 30 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 15, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,830 yuan/ton, closed at 20,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,940 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 82,102 lots, and the position was 148,539 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 71,394 tons, a change of 8,218 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 498,975 tons, a change of - 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,920 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,105 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 15, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,797 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.36%. The highest price was 2,818 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,782 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 241,190 lots, and the position was 361,466 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the decline of aluminum prices due to negative factors is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering, with the proportion of molten aluminum reaching a new high [6]. Alumina - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread [9]

沪铝期货主力合约AL2511在10月10日盘中冲高至21205元／吨，创近11个月以来新高，但因驱动不足，价格未能有效站稳便迅速回 落。当前，国内处于消费旺季，叠加铝锭库存处于低位，对铝价形成有力支撑，预计后市沪铝将以震荡偏强走势为主。 图为中国电解铝月度产量情况 （单位：万吨、%） 国内电解铝市场呈现"产量环比微降，但铝水比例提升、运行产能扩张"的特点。根据相关数据，9月电解铝产量为361.48万吨，同比 增长1.14%，环比降低3.18%。结构性变化更为显著，铝水比例环比提升1.2个百分点，至76.3%，导致铸锭量同比减少8.67%，至85.7 万吨。产能方面，截至9月底，行业运行产能为4406万吨，实现环比增长，主要是因为山东、云南的置换项目及广西技改项目陆续投 产。步入10月，上述项目持续推进将带动产量进一步上升，同时得益于北方铝液直销计划增加提供的有力支撑，铝水比例预计回升1 个百分点，至77.3%。 电解铝进口方面， 8月中国原铝进口量为217344.07吨，环比减少12.26%，同比上升33.12%。俄罗斯仍是第一大进口来源地，当月从 俄罗斯进口原铝138114.07吨，环比减少27.39%，同 ...

Core Insights - The A-share private placement market is experiencing a strong recovery in 2025, with total fundraising reaching 775.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 548.7% [1][2][10] - Key sectors attracting investment include non-bank financials, defense and military, semiconductors, and hardware equipment [1][3] Fundraising Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, 119 companies conducted private placements, raising a total of 775.1 billion yuan, marking a 15.53% increase in the number of placements compared to the previous year [2] - The total fundraising amount significantly exceeds the annual totals from the previous three years, which were 721.9 billion yuan in 2022, 578.9 billion yuan in 2023, and 173.1 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Sector Analysis - The banking sector accounted for nearly 70% of the total fundraising, primarily due to major banks like China Bank and Postal Savings Bank raising a combined 520 billion yuan [2][3] - Non-bank financials and public utilities ranked second and third in fundraising, with amounts of 50.7 billion yuan and 29.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The semiconductor and defense sectors also saw significant fundraising, with amounts of 25.9 billion yuan and 24.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] Average Fundraising Amount - The average fundraising amount per project has increased, with the average for 115 companies (excluding four state-owned banks) being 22.2 million yuan, compared to 11.9 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Eleven companies raised over 5 billion yuan each, compared to only four in the previous year [3] Notable Projects - Major projects include Guolian Minsheng's 29.5 billion yuan for asset acquisition, AVIC Chengfei's 17.4 billion yuan for asset acquisition, and China Nuclear Power's 14 billion yuan for project financing [4][6] - Other significant projects include Fulede's 6.19 billion yuan for acquiring 100% of Fulehua and ChipLink's 5.31 billion yuan for acquiring 72.33% of ChipLink Yuezhou [4][6] Regional Distribution - Beijing leads in fundraising with 42.9 billion yuan from 11 projects, accounting for 55.34% of the total [7] - Shanghai and Jiangsu follow with 15.0 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan, respectively [7] - Shaanxi has seen a notable increase in fundraising, reaching 19.2 billion yuan, largely due to AVIC Chengfei's successful issuance [8] Market Trends - The recovery in the private placement market is attributed to policy guidance, active mergers and acquisitions, and improved market profitability [12] - The technology sector, particularly in high-end manufacturing and AI, is seeing increased investment, with several companies planning significant fundraising for related projects [12]

Group 1 - The domestic non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a downturn, with aluminum futures showing slight strength, closing at 20,880.00 CNY/ton, up 0.10% [1] - The macroeconomic environment indicates short-term pressure on the domestic economy, with slowing consumption and investment growth, but there are structural highlights in domestic demand [1] - Future macro policies are expected to maintain a "steady progress" approach, relying on coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth [1] Group 2 - Supply side analysis shows that the upstream industry remains relatively loose, but domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is characterized by limited growth, with new capacity mainly from hydropower aluminum in the southwest [1] - The demand side is experiencing structural differentiation, with weak performance in construction materials dragging down overall consumption, while sectors like aluminum cables and plates are seeing slight recovery due to policy stimulus [1] - Looking ahead, market sentiment is influenced by changes in Trump's tariff policies, with expectations of limited aluminum price fluctuations and a preference for a stable oscillation in prices [2]