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铝类市场周报:需求提振预期向好,铝类或将有所支撑-20251010
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:11
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 铝类市场周报 需求提振预期向好,铝类或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾:沪铝先升后降,周涨跌幅+1.45%,报20980元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏弱,周涨跌-0.42%,报2856元/吨。 行情展望: 氧化铝:基本面原料端,受几内亚气候原因发运减少的影响,国内土矿供给仍将呈现收减态势,土矿报价较为坚挺。 供给方面,氧化铝现货价格虽有走弱,但冶炼厂利润空间尚在,故并未出现大面积减产情况,开工率仍保持较高水平, 国内氧化铝供给量保持稳定。需求方面,电解铝产能由于前期置换、技改项目陆续完成投产,令在运行产能小幅提升, 但由于电解铝产能上限的原因,令其对氧化铝消费提振仅小幅度。整体来看,氧化铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求小 增的局面。 策略建议:氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易,注意操作节奏及风险控制。 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾:铸铝主力合约先涨后跌, ...
铝类市场周报:供给小涨需求提振,铝类或将有所支撑-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:57
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.26」 铝类市场周报 供给小涨需求提振,铝类或将有所支撑 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝:基本面原料端氧化铝供应仍显偏多,氧化铝现货价格临近成本线,报价处低位,电解铝厂利润情况较好,生 产情绪较积极。供给端,国内前期置换产能项目逐渐完成并起槽投产,随着新增产能的释放,预计电解铝运行产能再 度小幅提升,开工处于高位令国内电解铝供给量或将保持小幅增长态势。需求端,政策方面的积极扩大消费,令铝材 消费预期走好,下游开工的提振亦将主力于铝需求的上升。应用消费方面,电网投资、新能源汽车、光伏、基建等领 域的政策支持,持续对铝消费形成支撑。总的来看,沪铝基本面或处于供给小增、需求提振的阶段。 策略建议:沪铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易,注意操作节奏及风险控制。 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 策略建议:铸铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易,注意操作节奏及风险控制。 4 「 期现市场」 3 行情回顾:沪铝震荡走势, ...
铝类市场周报:供给稳定需求回升,铝类或将震荡偏强-20250912
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 10:07
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [2] - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoint: The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to stable supply and rising demand [2][6] Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum: Oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 2.05%, closing at 21,120 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina: Oscillated weakly, with a weekly decrease of 3.06%, closing at 2,914 yuan/ton [6] - Cast Aluminum: Oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.8%, closing at 20,645 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - Alumina: The supply and demand are stable. The supply remains stable despite the decline in bauxite supply, and the demand has improved due to the stable operation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the recent price correction [6] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply is stable and the demand is gradually improving. The supply is stable due to the stable supply of alumina and the high operating capacity and start - up rate. The demand has improved with the arrival of the consumption peak season [6] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply is slightly convergent and the demand is warming up. The raw material cost is supported by the strong aluminum price and the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the supply is limited. The demand has improved with the arrival of the consumption peak season, but the spot market trading is still dull due to the high inventory [8] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai Aluminum: Light - position short - term long trading on dips for the main contract [6] - Alumina: Light - position oscillating trading for the main contract [6] - Cast Aluminum: Light - position oscillating trading for the main contract [8] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - Shanghai Aluminum: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton or 2.75% from September 5 [11] - LME Aluminum: As of September 11, 2025, the closing price was 2,679 US dollars/ton, up 89 US dollars/ton or 3.44% from September 5 [11] - Alumina Futures: As of September 12, 2025, the price was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton or 2.48% from September 5 [15] - Cast Aluminum Futures: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price was 20,645 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.8% from September 5 [15] - Alumina Spot: In Henan, the average price was 3,065 yuan/ton on September 12, down 55 yuan/ton or 1.76% from September 5; in Shanxi, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or 2.74% from September 5; in Guiyang, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or 2.74% from September 5 [26][27] - Cast Aluminum Spot: The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,050 yuan/ton on September 12, up 300 yuan/ton or 1.45% from September 5 [27] - Domestic Shanghai Aluminum Spot: As of September 12, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,050 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton or 1.79% from September 5, with a spot discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [30] Other Indicators - Shanghai Aluminum Position: As of September 12, 2025, the position was 611,039 lots, an increase of 76,550 lots or 14.32% from September 5 [18] - Shanghai Aluminum Top 20 Net Position: As of September 12, 2025, it was 4,602 lots, an increase of 4,949 lots from September 5 [18] - Aluminum - Zinc Futures Spread: As of September 12, 2025, it was 1,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton from September 5 [24] - Copper - Aluminum Futures Spread: As of September 12, 2025, it was 59,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 495 yuan/ton from September 5 [24] - LME Aluminum Near - Month and 3 - Month Spread: As of September 11, 2025, it was 11.06 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.55 US dollars/ton from September 4 [29] Group 4: Industry Situation Inventory - LME Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, it was 485,275 tons, an increase of 5,675 tons or 1.18% from September 4 [36] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of September 5, 2025, it was 124,078 tons, a decrease of 1,518 tons or 1.21% from last week [35] - Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Social Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, it was 570,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons or 0.35% from September 4 [35] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Warehouse Receipt: As of September 12, 2025, it was 72,469 tons, an increase of 12,508 tons or 20.86% from September 5 [36] - LME Electrolytic Aluminum Registered Warehouse Receipt: As of September 11, 2025, it was 375,025 tons, a decrease of 93,725 tons or 19.99% from September 4 [36] Raw Materials - Bauxite: The total import volume increased year - on - year, and the port inventory decreased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65%. The nine - port inventory was 26.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 790,000 tons [39] - Scrap Aluminum: The quotation increased, and the import and export increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91%. The quotation of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 300 yuan/ton week - on - week [46] Production and Trade - Alumina: The production increased year - on - year, and the import and export increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July 2025, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [49] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production and import increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July 2025, the import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In July 2025, the export volume was 41,000 tons; from January to July, the cumulative export volume was 126,900 tons [52][56] - Aluminum Products: The total production decreased year - on - year, the import increased year - on - year, and the export decreased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July 2025, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The production increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 623,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 and a year - on - year increase of 12.41%. The monthly built - in production capacity was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.25% [63] - Aluminum Alloy: The total production increased, the import decreased, and the export increased. In July 2025, the production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July 2025, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. From January to July, the import volume was 611,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.83%; the export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.77% [66] Downstream Markets - Real Estate: The market declined slightly. In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from last month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing start - up area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69] - Infrastructure: The investment was favorable. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [72] - Automobile: The production and sales increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72] Group 5: Option Market Analysis - Strategy Recommendation: Considering the support for the future aluminum price, a double - buy strategy can be considered to bet on the increase in volatility [77]
铝类市场周报:供给小增需求渐暖,铝类或将有所支撑-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 08:44
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight supply growth and stable demand. For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slight supply growth and gradually rising demand, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point. Cast aluminum alloy fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and gradually warming demand [4]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum, and light - position range - bound trading for the main contract of alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile trend, with a weekly change of - 0.22%, closing at 20,695 yuan/ton. Alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.99%, closing at 3,006 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.33%, closing at 20,280 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The raw material supply is sufficient in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase slightly while demand remains stable [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The smelting profit is good, and the supply is expected to increase slightly while demand gradually recovers, with positive consumption expectations and a possible inventory inflection point [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply may slightly converge due to tight raw materials and high costs, and demand is gradually warming up [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: - As of September 5, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from August 29; LME aluminum closed at 2,590 US dollars/ton on September 4, 2025, down 0.65% from August 29. The Shanghai - LME ratio was 7.96, up 0.12 from August 29 [9][10]. - As of September 5, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,948 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from August 29; the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,280 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from August 29 [13]. - **Open Interest**: As of September 5, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 534,489 lots, down 7.36% from August 29; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 1,113 lots from August 29 [16]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of September 5, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,460 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from August 29; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,445 yuan/ton, up 775 yuan/ton from August 29 [21]. - **Spot Prices**: - As of September 5, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 2.04% from August 29; in Shanxi, it was 3,175 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from August 29; in Guiyang, it was 3,175 yuan/ton, down 2.52% from August 29. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 29 [23][24]. - As of September 5, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,680 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from August 29; the spot was at par, up 30 yuan/ton from last week [30]. 3. Industry Conditions - **Inventory**: - As of September 4, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,600 tons, down 0.32% from August 28; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 125,596 tons on August 29, up 0.8% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 572,000 tons on September 4, up 0.88% from August 28 [34][35]. - As of September 5, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 59,961 tons, up 2.27% from August 29; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 468,750 tons on September 4, unchanged from August 28 [35]. - **Raw Materials**: - As of the latest data, the domestic nine - port bauxite inventory was 27.63 million tons, down 250,000 tons from the previous month. In July 2025, the bauxite imports were 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the bauxite imports were 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [38]. - As of this week's latest data, the price of crushed raw aluminum scrap in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week. In July 2025, the imports of aluminum scrap and fragments were 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the exports were 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [44]. - **Production and Trade**: - In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July 2025, the alumina imports were 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the exports were 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.33%. From January to July, the cumulative alumina imports were 394,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68.61% [46][47]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum imports were 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; from January to July, the cumulative imports were 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum exports were 41,000 tons; from January to July, the cumulative exports were 126,900 tons [50]. - In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 378,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 2.638 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In August 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 4.4379 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 1.99%; the total capacity was 4.5232 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 98.11%, up 0.33% from last month and down 1.41% from the same period last year [54]. - In July 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July 2025, the aluminum product imports were 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the exports were 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. From January to July, the aluminum product imports were 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; the exports were 3.46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [58]. - In July 2025, the cast aluminum alloy monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 19.25%. The cast aluminum alloy output was 623,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 and a year - on - year increase of 12.41% [61]. - In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; from January to July, the cumulative output was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In July 2025, the aluminum alloy imports were 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the exports were 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. From January to July, the aluminum alloy imports were 611,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.83%; the exports were 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.77% [64]. - **Downstream Markets**: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from last month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [67]. - From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [70]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].
铝类市场周报:旺季临近需求回升,铝类或将有所支撑-20250829
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 08:22
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to be supported as the peak season approaches and demand recovers. The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and stable demand, while the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slight increase in supply and gradually rising demand [5]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend, rising 0.53% to 20,740 yuan/ton, while alumina showed a slightly downward trend, falling 3.25% to 3,036 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract first rose and then fell, rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is expected to gradually decline due to the rainy season in Guinea. Although raw material shipments will be affected, the supply of domestic alumina may remain stable with a slight increase due to sufficient port inventory and good smelting profits. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum will remain stable. The industry is expected to gradually recover as the traditional peak season approaches [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good, so smelters are more active in production. The domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to remain stable with a slight increase. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, domestic demand is expected to pick up, although export demand will decline due to tariff issues [5]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs may lead to a reduction in smelter production capacity. With the arrival of the peak season and government subsidies, consumption is expected to recover, and high - level inventory may gradually be reduced [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices and light - position oscillating trading on the main contract of alumina and cast aluminum, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: - As of August 29, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,765 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 22; LME aluminum closed at 2,607 dollars/ton on August 28, up 1.16% from August 21. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.97, up 0.12 from August 22 [10][11]. - Alumina futures weakened, with the price dropping 3.87% to 3,006 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. Cast aluminum futures rose, with the price rising 0.87% to 20,350 yuan/ton during the same period [14]. - The copper - aluminum price difference increased by 610 yuan/ton to 58,670 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc price difference decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 1,400 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29 [22]. - In the spot market, alumina prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased slightly, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose 1.47% to 20,750 yuan/ton from August 22 to August 29. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots decreased by 0.14% to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][32]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 29, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.29% to 576,966 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 8,544 lots to 4,602 lots compared with August 22 [17]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of August 28, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.34% to 481,150 tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5% to 567,000 tons. As of August 29, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.8% to 125,596 tons, and the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2.6% to 58,629 tons [36][37]. - The total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 2,788 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18 million tons [40]. - **Raw Material Imports**: - In July 2025, the import volume of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65% [40]. - In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%, and the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [46]. - **Production and Trade**: - In July 2025, alumina production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33%, and the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50.91% [48][49]. - In July 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The export volume in July was 41,000 tons [52]. - In July 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July, the domestic in - production capacity was 44.229 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68%; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.52%; the operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.1% from the previous month and down 1.11% from the same period last year [56,]. - In July 2025, aluminum product production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%, and the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60]. - In June 2025, the monthly production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The production volume was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [63]. - In July 2025, aluminum alloy production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%, and the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [66]. - **Downstream Markets**: - In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, down 0.25 from the previous month and up 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%, and the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69]. - From January to July 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%, and the production was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72]. 4. Options Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [77].
铝类市场周报:供给持稳需求暂弱,铝类或将有所承压-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may experience a situation of double - growth in supply and demand, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. The electrolytic aluminum market may see a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The overall aluminum market may face some pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of cast aluminum first declined and then rose, with a weekly change of +0.05%, closing at 20,175 yuan/ton. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.67%, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton. The alumina contract oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 2.09%, closing at 3,138 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina may face a situation of double - growth in supply and demand. Electrolytic aluminum may see stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from August 15; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,593 US dollars/ton, down 1.18% from August 15. The alumina futures price was 3,127 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from August 15; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,175 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from August 15 [8][12]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 22, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.11 from August 15. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from August 15; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,060 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from August 15 [9][20]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 575,286 lots, down 4.33% from August 15; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 10,019 lots from August 15 [15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, 2025, the alumina spot price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang regions decreased slightly. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,450 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from August 15. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from August 15, and the spot premium was 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 0.03% from August 14; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,653 tons, up 6.2% from the previous week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 540,000 tons, up 2.66% from August 14 [32]. - **Raw Material Import and Inventory**: As of the latest data, the nine - port inventory of domestic bauxite was 27.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons. In July 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22% [35]. - **Waste Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed waste aluminum in Shandong region was 15,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. In July 2025, the import volume of waste aluminum and scrap was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [41]. - **Alumina**: In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; the cumulative import from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In July 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The output was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; the cumulative output from January to July was 10.628 million tons. The import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In July 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64][67]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price is expected to experience slight oscillatory pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [72].
铝类市场周报:供给小增需求暂弱,铝类或将有所承压-20250808
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 11:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The raw material end is affected by the rainy season in Guinea and mining area disturbances, with a potential decrease in bauxite shipments and rising prices. Domestic port inventories may decrease. Supply has a slight increase due to policy - related price increases and profit repair for smelters. Demand also shows a small increase as electrolytic aluminum production slightly rises. Overall, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is high with firm alumina prices and high - oscillating aluminum prices, resulting in good smelter profits and positive production willingness. Supply has a small increase due to previous technical renovation and capacity replacement projects, but production is approaching the industry ceiling. Demand is weak during the off - season, and high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption. Short - term inventory may accumulate slightly, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: High raw material costs squeeze smelter profits, and production may decrease due to cost - profit issues and the off - season. Demand is weak during the off - season, with cautious purchasing by consumers. Inventory is slightly accumulating [6]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trade the main contract of Shanghai aluminum lightly with a weak - oscillating view, and trade the main contract of alumina lightly by going long at low prices. Trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with an oscillating view. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum opened low and rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.85% to 20,685 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated, with a weekly increase of 0.25% to 3,170 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.95% to 20,110 yuan/ton [4][6]. - **Market Outlook and Strategy**: See the core views above [4][6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movements**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's closing price was 20,695 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from August 1; LME aluminum's closing price was 2,610.5 dollars/ton, up 1.87% from August 1. The alumina futures price was 3,161 yuan/ton, down 2.23% from August 1. The cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 20,110 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from August 1 [9][13]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 8, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.1 from August 1. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,830 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 1; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 57,805 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from August 1 [10][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of August 8, 2025, Shanghai aluminum's position was 587,075 lots, up 1.6% from August 1; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 6,713 lots from August 1 [16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 1. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from August 1. The A00 aluminum ingot's spot price was 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from August 1, with a spot discount of 50 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, up 1.84% from July 31; Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,614 tons, down 3.33% from last week; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 506,000 tons, up 3.9% from July 31 [36]. - **Raw Materials**: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.36 million tons, down 40,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum waste and scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [39][45]. - **Production and Trade**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. The import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 192,300 tons, up 58.78% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.2493 million tons, up 2.46% year - on - year; the export was 19,600 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative export was 85,900 tons. In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 618,900 tons, up 5.49% year - on - year. The output of aluminum alloy in June 2025 was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons [48][51][55][59][62][65]. - **Downstream Markets**: In June 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year. From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105, up 11.43% year - on - year [68][71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight weak - oscillating trend of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].
铝月报:八月淡旺季切换,铝价或先抑后扬-20250804
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the supply of bauxite is expected to tighten due to the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine - right suspension, which will support the bottom of the ore price. However, the significant increase in bauxite imports from January to July (+34%), high port inventories, and the resumption of production of suspended mines limit the upside space of imported bauxite prices, and the price will mainly remain in the bottom - range operation [7][57]. - The stimulus of the "anti - involution" policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. If relevant policies do not cover this industry, the alumina price will still be under pressure. The alumina futures price rose rapidly this month, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window and attracting demand for spot delivery products. But the window will close again at the end of the month, weakening the support for the spot. Before the policy is clear, one should be cautious about the upside space of alumina. If there is a high point, short - selling can be considered [7][57]. - In the cast - aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap - aluminum supply, cast - aluminum will continue to fluctuate within a range following the Shanghai Aluminum, maintaining a low - level negative spread structure between AD - AL [7][59]. - At the electrolytic - aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, with the real - estate side continuing to drag down and a slight decline in demand in the photovoltaic field. However, there is still support from the new - energy vehicle and cable sectors. Considering that August is the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, if the aluminum price continues to fall and the peak season approaches, there may be a certain increase in demand [7][59]. - Overall, the direct impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the aluminum industry is limited, and it mainly causes fluctuations in the market due to changes in sentiment. After the digestion of policy - expectation sentiment, the aluminum price trend will return to the fundamentals. In August, as the off - season is more than half over and the end of the month will see the transition from the off - season to the peak season, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range in August being 20,000 - 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [7][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the overall operating center moving up compared to the previous month. The main increase was concentrated in the first and middle ten - days. Following the continuous repair of the macro - sentiment, the aluminum price followed the industrial - product sector and continued to run strongly. The index reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, but was significantly suppressed at the 21,000 - yuan integer mark. With the weakening of the macro - optimistic atmosphere and the cooling of market risk - preference sentiment, Shanghai Aluminum began to decline in the second half of July and continued to decline until the end of the month [9]. - Fundamentally, although July is the traditional consumption off - season, the aluminum - ingot inventory performance remained strong, staying below 500,000 tons. The inflection point of inventory accumulation was basically confirmed around the second half of the month, which provided impetus for the rise of the aluminum price. The import window remained closed during the month, and the import loss slightly increased compared to the beginning of the month, with a loss of about - 1,500 yuan/ton [9]. - Throughout the month, the Shanghai Aluminum index opened at 20,460 yuan/ton, reached a maximum of 20,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 20,230 yuan/ton, and closed at 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the end of the previous month. As of the end of the month, the total open interest of the index was 591,000 lots, a decrease of 68,097 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 319,000 lots to 5.88 million lots compared to the end of the previous month. The London Aluminum opened at 2,595 US dollars/ton, reached a maximum of 2,664.5 US dollars/ton, a minimum of 2,555.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,562.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the end of the previous month. The open interest at the end of the month was 684,000 lots, a decrease of 11,404 lots compared to the end of the previous month, and the trading volume decreased by 34,039 lots to 377,000 lots compared to the end of the previous month [9]. 3.2 Supply - side of the Fundamentals 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply remained stable in July 2025. There was no significant change in supply, and there was no oversupply. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained flat compared to the previous month. For example, in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou, the prices of bauxite with specific aluminum - silicon ratios and alumina contents remained unchanged [14]. - For imported bauxite, as of the end of the month, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was 73.5 US dollars/ton, a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month; the average CIF price of Australian bauxite was 69.5 US dollars/ton, also a slight decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton compared to the end of the previous month. In June 2025, China imported 18.116 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 3.44% and a year - on - year increase of 36.21%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports were 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. In July, the domestic arrival of Guinea bauxite was still from before the rainy season in Guinea and was less affected by the mine - right revocation event, with a high shipment volume. It is expected that the total amount of bauxite imported from Guinea will decline from August to October [15]. 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, as of July 31, the weighted average price of alumina in major regions was 3,252.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 137.8 yuan/ton or 4.42% compared to the end of the previous month. The prices in various domestic regions all increased. The overseas FOB price of alumina in Western Australia was 377 US dollars/ton, and after conversion, it was about 3,347 yuan/ton at domestic ports, higher than the domestic price, and the alumina import window remained closed [20]. - In terms of production capacity and output, in July 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. As of the end of July, the built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the actual operating capacity increased by 2.00% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 81.6%. In August, the alumina price is still high, and the profitability of alumina plants is good. Only a few enterprises are expected to carry out routine maintenance, and the impact on production is limited. The operating capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina is expected to continue to increase slightly [21]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In July 2025, the domestic electrolytic - aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.05% and a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan. As of the end of the month, the built - in production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 45.69 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. In August, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and the second - phase replacement project in Yunnan will be put into production and start outputting [28]. - In terms of imports and exports, the external market is stronger than the domestic market. The import window remains closed, and domestic demand is weak. The enthusiasm of overseas suppliers to send goods to China has decreased, and the net import of electrolytic aluminum in July is expected to remain at a low level. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum export volume was about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum export volume was about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, the domestic primary - aluminum import volume was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary - aluminum import volume was about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [35]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 76,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month, at a low level in the same period in the past three years. The inventory of aluminum rods in mainstream domestic consumption areas was 147,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the end of the previous month. In London, the aluminum - ingot inventory of the London Metal Exchange was 461,025 tons, an increase of 112,400 tons compared to the end of the previous month [40]. 3.3 Demand - side of the Fundamentals 3.3.1 Real - estate Sector - The real - estate industry's aluminum consumption is mainly concentrated in the housing completion stage, including new - house doors and windows, aluminum formwork, and curtain - wall decoration. From January to June, national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume of real - estate all showed varying degrees of decline. In July, the performance of building profiles was still sluggish. Most enterprises reported a significant decrease in building - material orders, and some enterprises are transforming to industrial profiles. It is expected that the situation will remain sluggish in August [47][50][51]. 3.3.2 Automotive Sector - In January 2025, eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on the 2025 automobile trade - in program, expanding the scope of eligible vehicles for scrapping and replacement subsidies. In the first half of 2025, the automobile trade - in policy continued to be effective, and the passenger - car market continued to perform well. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. The domestic sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the export decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% [54][55]. 3.4 Market Outlook - As mentioned above, in August, the aluminum price is expected to first decline and then rise, with the main operating range from 20,000 to 20,900 yuan/ton. A band - trading strategy should be maintained [59].
铝类市场周报:淡季影响需求暂弱,铝类或将有所压力-20250801
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 08:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may be in a stage where supply growth slows and demand remains relatively stable, with industrial expectations gradually improving under policy guidance. For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be at a stage where supply remains high but growth slows, and demand is weak due to the off - season, with slightly accumulated inventory, and the long - term outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization [6]. - Suggest light - position oscillating trading for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum and light - position short - selling trading for the main contract of Alumina when prices are high, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 1.2%, closing at 20,510 yuan/ton. Alumina oscillated downward, with a weekly change of - 7.76%, closing at 3,162 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina is expected to have a slowdown in supply growth and stable demand. Electrolytic aluminum supply will remain high but with a slowdown in growth, and demand will be weak due to the off - season [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position oscillating trading for Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and light - position short - selling trading for Alumina's main contract when prices are high, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from July 25. Alumina's futures price was 3,233 yuan/ton, down 213 yuan/ton (- 6.18%). Cast aluminum alloy's main contract closing price was 19,920 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan/ton (- 1.07%) [11][14]. - **Position Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum's position was 577,815 lots, down 77,532 lots (- 11.83%) from July 25. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 8,454 lots [18]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,810 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton from July 25. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 57,890 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Price Changes**: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.62%); in Shanxi, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%); in Guiyang, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.93%). The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton (- 0.99%). The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,490 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan/ton (- 1.49%), with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week [25][29][32]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 461,025 tons, up 12,925 tons (2.88%); as of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 117,527 tons, up 1,737 tons (1.5%); domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 487,000 tons, up 25,000 tons (5.41%). As of August 1, 2025, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 48,658 tons, down 6,017 tons (- 11.01%); LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 447,000 tons, up 14,050 tons (3.25%) [36]. - **Bauxite**: As of the latest data, the total inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 27.4 million tons, up 580,000 tons month - on - month. In June 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 18.1163 million tons, up 3.45% month - on - month and 36.21% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 103.2494 million tons, up 33.61% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of this week's latest data, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,650 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. In June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,616.27 tons, up 11.4% year - on - year; the export was 64.33 tons, down 38.7% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.7493 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 45.151 million tons, up 9.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import was 101,300 tons, up 50.03% month - on - month and 168.44% year - on - year; the export was 170,000 tons, down 19.05% month - on - month and up 6.25% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 268,200 tons, down 77.37% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In June 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, up 3.4% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative output was 22.379 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.159 million tons, up 0.05% month - on - month and 1.75% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.207 million tons, up 0.01% month - on - month and 0.58% year - on - year; the operating rate was 97.68%, up 0.03% from last month and down 1.12% from the same period last year [55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum products was 5.8737 million tons, up 0.7% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 32.7679 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year. In June 2025, the import of aluminum products was 300,000 tons, up 24.1% year - on - year; the export was 490,000 tons, down 19.8% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 1.98 million tons, up 1.3% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 2.92 million tons, down 8% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy was 618,900 tons, up 0.48 month - on - month and 5.49% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, down 0.87% month - on - month and up 19.22% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the production of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year; from January to June, the cumulative production was 9.097 million tons. In June 2025, the import of aluminum alloy was 77,400 tons, down 12.26% year - on - year; the export was 25,800 tons, up 23.79% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative import was 542,200 tons, down 11.53% year - on - year; the cumulative export was 120,300 tons, up 3.06% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: In June 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.6, down 0.11 from last month and up 1.61 from the same period last year. From January to June 2024, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, down 20.14% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, down 22.87% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to June 2024, infrastructure investment was up 8.9% year - on - year. In June 2025, China's automobile sales were 2,904,482 units, up 13.83% year - on - year; production was 2,794,105 units, up 11.43% year - on - year [71]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given the expected slight oscillating decline of aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].
建信期货铝日报-20250729
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:31
Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, with many previously surging varieties hitting the daily limit down. Alumina dropped 6.27% intraday, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy continued minor adjustments. Aluminium prices are under significant resistance at the previous high, and shorting at appropriate positions is recommended [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, SHFE Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.65% at 20,615. The total index position decreased by 26,792 to 627,084 lots. The 08 - 09 spread was 30, and the AD - AL negative spread was -510 [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine license suspensions is expected to be felt in August, and ore prices are expected to stop falling and recover [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" logic, alumina futures prices rose rapidly, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window and supporting the spot price. However, the operating capacity of alumina continues to rise, and the oversupply situation persists. After the short - term sentiment fades, it enters a correction phase [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum follows SHFE Aluminum in range - bound fluctuations, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, it is still the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, demand is weak, and the开工 rate in the aluminum processing sector remains low [8]. 2. Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Primary Aluminum Exports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Primary Aluminum Net Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum net imports were 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum net imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high [10]. - **Bauxite Mine Rights**: On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mine rights with no actual mining activities [10]. - **Alcoa's Spanish Smelter**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April. On July 14, the restart work resumed [10][11].