当前，我国有色行业深陷"内卷"困局，而"反内卷"政策为行业破局注入新动能。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达分析认为，有色行业的"内卷"本质是资源端与制造端结构性失衡的产物。我 国镍、钴、锂等关键矿产资源对外依存度超70%，下游加工产能却占据全球80%以上份额，这种"两头 在外"的格局，导致企业陷入"越亏损越生产"的循环。 为打破这一困局，"反内卷"政策从多维度发力。在资源端，强力推进"增储上产"战略，五矿资本等企业 已启动深海采矿商业模式研究。顾冯达表示，当前铜精矿加工费（TC）跌至历史极值，引发国内冶炼 厂联合减产，矿端紧缺压力加速向锭端传导。 制造端的革新同样关键。据顾冯达介绍，能耗与碳排放门槛已成为淘汰低效产能的"利剑"。电解铝吨铝 电耗强制降至1.3万度以下，推动产能向云南等绿电富集区转移，水电铝成本降幅达2000元／吨。同 时，政策引导企业转向高压铜箔、航空航天铝材等高附加值领域，推动产业向"高精尖"升级。 编辑：郭洲洋 需求侧结构性变革已显现积极信号。电网投资同比增速20%、光伏用铜量环比跳升18%，有效对冲了地 产链需求弱势。顾冯达进一步表示，"反内卷"政策将持续强化新能源、特高压等高端领域需求，推动 ...

从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 铝类市场周报 淡季影响需求暂弱，铝类或将有所承压 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.27%，报20635元/吨。氧化铝低位反弹，周涨跌+1.27%，报3024元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存小幅提升，位于中高区间运行，供应量相对充足；几内亚供给受季节性 变化影响雨季发运量有所收减，铝土矿报价持稳运行。供给方面，国内在产产能维持高位运行并且因前期检修项目的 重新投产而略有走高，此外，期价近期因宏观环境的提振而反弹，令盘面期现套保机会出现，冶炼厂生产意愿有所回 暖。需求方面，国内电解铝在产产能保持高位，由于上限的设置，令在产部分增减量皆较为零星，氧化铝需求情况较 为稳定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给相对充足，需求稳定阶段，成本端为现货 ...

编号：2025-004 证券简称：立中集团证券代码：300428 债券简称：立中转债 债券代码：123212 立中四通轻合金集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 答：公司深耕铝合金产业 40 年，拥有行业领先的材料研发水 平和丰富的材料技术储备。公司持续关注在机器人领域的产业布 局，铝合金作为机器人常用的轻量化材料，在机器人制造中发挥着 优异的轻量化效果，公司现有的高强高屈服免热处理压铸铝合金、 A356 铝合金、6 系和 7 系变形铝合金等产品可用于机器人零部件的 制造。其中，公司的高强高屈服免热处理压铸铝合金凭借优异的综 合性能表现获得关注，并且正在某欧洲机器人关节转轴上进行材料 验证，但目前还未实现营业收入，请注意投资风险。 3、公司产品在航空航天和飞机制造领域有哪些布局？ 答：在航空航天、飞机制造领域，公司研发和生产的铝基稀土 中间合金已应用于大飞机和航天部件铝合金的制造，生产的航空航 天级特种中间合金主要应用于航空航天的钛合金和高温合金领域， 已成功间接用于制造飞机发动机排气塞、发动机扇叶、喷嘴构件、 起落架、制动盘和紧固件等关键部位，并间接在国外某飞行汽车公 司的电动飞机（"空中出租车"）上得到 ...

铝类市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.27」 宏观预期VS淡季影响，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.56%，报20580元/吨。氧化铝低位反弹，周涨跌+3.32%，报2986元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存有所回落，整体仍较充足；几内亚供给扰动事件有所缓和，但受雨季影 响雨季发运量或有所收减，铝土矿报价暂稳运行。供给方面，氧化铝国内供给量仍显宽松，进口大幅增加，国内在产 产能亦维持高位运行。需求方面，国内电解铝在产产能持稳运行，由于氧化铝原料供应偏宽松，冶炼厂库存预计相对 充足，生产情况稳定，对氧化铝需求亦保持相对稳定。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于，供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段， 铝土矿价格稳定为氧化铝提供部分成本支撑。 电解铝：基本面供给端，国内电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency maintains a stable outlook for Shandong Liancheng Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd, despite facing challenges such as declining revenue and increased debt pressure, which may lead to losses in 2024 [3][4][5]. Company Overview - Shandong Liancheng Precision Manufacturing Co., Ltd has a credit rating of A, with a stable outlook, indicating good customer quality and expected stable cash flow [3][5]. - The company has a significant reliance on foreign sales, which exposes it to risks from currency fluctuations and tariff policies [4][5]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets as of March 2025 are 23.58 billion, with a projected revenue of 2.61 billion for 2025, down from 10.75 billion in 2024 [3][4]. - The net profit is expected to turn negative at -0.08 billion in 2025, compared to a profit of 0.06 billion in 2023 [3][4]. - The debt-to-capital ratio is 43.06%, indicating a moderate level of leverage [3][4]. Market Environment - The casting industry in China is experiencing a decline, with a 2.2% decrease in total casting output in 2024, totaling 5,075 million tons [9][11]. - The automotive sector remains the largest consumer of castings, accounting for 29.7% of the total casting applications in 2024 [11][12]. Operational Challenges - The company faces challenges such as declining sales margins and increased operational costs due to low product value-added and insufficient capacity utilization [4][5][14]. - The company’s production capacity utilization rate is low, which affects its profitability and increases the risk of inventory impairment [14][15]. Customer and Supplier Dynamics - The company has a high customer concentration risk, with the top five customers accounting for nearly 50% of total sales [17][19]. - Major customers include CNH Industrial N.V. and Danfoss A/S, which provide a stable revenue stream but also expose the company to risks if these relationships falter [18][19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue facing pressure from external financing and operational costs, with a focus on improving cash flow and managing debt levels [4][5]. - The ongoing investment in precision manufacturing projects aims to enhance production capabilities, although the timeline for achieving operational status has been extended to June 2026 [16][15].

淡季影响需求走弱，铝类或将有所承压 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 铝类市场周报 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝周度先涨后跌，周涨跌幅+0.21%，报20465元/吨。氧化铝周度低位反弹，周涨跌+1.33%，报2890 元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，国内铝土矿港口库存虽有回落，但仍处中高位运行，原料供给尚充足。供给方面，现货价格 反弹后再度回落，加之海外土矿报价的坚挺令氧化铝厂利润受损，后续或有检修减产等控制产能方面的应对举措，国 内产量方面或有小幅收减。需求方面，国内电解铝各地产能及技改置换等项目陆续推行，现有在运行产能接近行业上 限，整体对氧化铝的需求持稳。总的来看，氧化铝基本面或处于，供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段。 电解铝：基本面供给端，国内电解铝产能总体持稳运行，由于铝水比例提升，令铸锭量下降行业库存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive aluminum materials industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by the increasing demand for lightweight materials in the electric vehicle sector, with significant production and sales figures reported in China for 2023 [2][4]. Industry Overview - Automotive aluminum materials are specialized aluminum alloys used in vehicle manufacturing, characterized by their low density, corrosion resistance, high strength, and excellent heat dissipation properties [2]. - The industry is crucial for automotive lightweighting, with applications in various vehicle components such as body, chassis, and engine [2]. Market Dynamics - In 2023, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 35.8% and 37.9%, with a market share of 31.6% [2]. - The demand for automotive aluminum materials is directly influenced by the growth of the new energy vehicle market, which emphasizes the need for lightweight materials [2]. Supply Chain Analysis - The supply chain consists of upstream raw material suppliers providing bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum; midstream processing that transforms these materials into various aluminum products; and downstream customers, primarily automotive manufacturers [2][4]. Production Statistics - In 2022, China produced 81.862 million tons of alumina and 40.214 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, reinforcing its position as the largest producer and consumer of these materials globally [4]. Future Outlook - A report by Huajing Industry Research Institute forecasts the market development and investment prospects for the automotive aluminum materials industry from 2024 to 2030, highlighting the importance of understanding market trends and competitive dynamics [6].

证券代码： 301163 证券简称：宏德股份 答：公司是目前国内为数不多的同时掌握高性能球墨铸铁和铸 铝核心技术的铸件生产企业，公司坚持"铸铁+铸铝"的多元 化发展模式。2024 年，公司面对严峻的国际、国内环境以及 激烈的风电产业竞争局面，通过适度优化产品结构和业务方 向，保持了收入的总体稳定。受国内风电设备制造商激烈的价 格竞争影响，公司铸铁件营业收入同比下降 11.93%；铸铝件 营业收入同比增长 10.99%，电力设备专用件和医疗器械专用 件为公司营业收入增长提供动力。公司将利用积累的技术优 势，不断加大新客户开发及新产品研发力度，努力进一步丰富 客户结构及产品结构，持续提升公司的盈利能力。 | 投资者关系活动 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访  业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | 现场参观 | | | 其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | 线上参加江苏宏德特种部件股份有限公司 2024 年度网上业绩 | | 人员姓名 | 说明会的投资者 | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 9 日（星期五）下午 16:00-17 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 7.183 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.39% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 162 million yuan, down 40.96% year-on-year and down 24.24% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 138 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.62% [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's Q1 2025 gross margin was 8.83%, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.83 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The total expense ratio for the first quarter was 6.74%, which increased by 0.14 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a rise in financial expense ratio by 0.26 percentage points [2]. Global Expansion and Market Position - The company's global layout may effectively hedge against tariff impacts, with factories established in Thailand and Mexico. The Thai aluminum alloy project is expected to be operational in 2024, while the Mexican wheel factory is still ramping up production [3]. - The U.S. imposes a 10% tariff on Thailand, which has a relatively minor impact. Mexico is not subject to U.S. tariffs, allowing the company to potentially increase its market share in the U.S. automotive supply chain [3]. Product Development and Innovation - The company is actively developing products in emerging fields, with mass production of non-heat-treated alloy materials already achieved. The high-strength, high-yield non-heat-treated die-casting aluminum alloy is being validated in robotics and drone applications [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to reach 800 million yuan, 1.069 billion yuan, and 1.34 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.26, 1.69, and 2.12 yuan [4]. - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025 is projected at 21.1 times, while the company is assigned a target PE of 17 times, resulting in a target price of 21.42 yuan [4].