瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 铝类市场周报 假期临近需求回落，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝周线震荡回落，周涨跌幅-0.51%，报23195元/吨。氧化铝震荡走势，周涨跌+0.6%，报2841元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚雨季影响逐渐降低发运回升，国内土矿供给逐渐充足，土矿价格持稳运行。供给端，氧化铝 冶炼厂整体开工情况暂稳，因假期临近或有小幅下降，国内供给量总体持稳，库存偏高位，供应格局仍显偏多。需求端，电 解铝产新投产产能逐渐推升氧化铝需求，但由于行业产能上限原因，其增量有限，对原料消费大体持稳。整体来看，氧化铝 基本面或处于供给充足、需求持稳的阶段。 观点总结：氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝报价低位运行，电解铝厂理论利润情况仍较好，加之其冶炼厂启停成本较高，生产开工 情况仍 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 铝类市场周报 逢低备库需求回暖，铝类或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝低位运行，铝价虽有回调，但电解铝厂理论利润情况仍较好，加之其冶炼厂启停成本较 高，生产开工情况仍保持高位稳定，在运行产能小幅提振，但受限于行业上限的制约，其增量有限，电解铝供给量大体持稳。 需求端，下游加工企业随着铝价回调进行逢低节前备货，随着备货临近尾声，加之长假放假的影响，下游需求或将逐步走弱。 整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求有所回暖的局面，产业库存季节性积累。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝周线震荡回落，周涨跌幅-5.07%，报23315元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏强，周涨跌+2.02%，报2824元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚雨季影响逐渐降低发运回升，国内土矿供给 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hongde Co., Ltd. (301163.SZ) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.5 million to 46 million yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80.36% to 115.50% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 24.5 million and 32 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 22.28% to 59.72% [1] Business Strategy - The company continues to focus on its core business, specifically in the iron casting and aluminum casting sectors, which has led to enhanced revenue and profitability in the aluminum casting segment, contributing to overall performance improvement [1] Non-Recurring Income - During the reporting period, the company recorded approximately 9.2 million yuan in revenue from the sale of used sandboxes, which is classified as non-recurring income and is not sustainable [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，宏德股份(301163)1月27日发布业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润为3850万元~4600万元， 同比增长80.36%~115.5%。报告期内，公司持续聚焦主业，围绕铸铁和铸铝两大业务核心进行产业布局 和市场拓展，其中铸铝业务收入和盈利能力提升，带动了公司业绩的增加。 ...

人民财讯1月27日电，宏德股份(301163)1月27日发布业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润为3850万元— 4600万元，同比增长80.36%—115.5%。报告期内，公司持续聚焦主业，围绕铸铁和铸铝两大业务核心 进行产业布局和市场拓展，其中铸铝业务收入和盈利能力提升，带动了公司业绩的增加。 转自：证券时报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the raw material price is falling and supply is increasing, while demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable. The recommendation is to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable but demand is cautious due to the off - season and high prices. The suggestion is to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum, the supply is converging and demand is weakening. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion in the options market [69]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum fell from a high, with a weekly change of - 1.66% to 23925 yuan/ton; alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.24% to 2751 yuan/ton; cast aluminum's main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 1.09% to 22735 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook and Views**: Alumina has an oversupply situation with stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply and cautious demand; cast aluminum has converging supply and weakening demand. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23850 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the LME aluminum closing price on January 15 was 3167.5 dollars/ton, up 76.5 dollars/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, down 0.22 from January 9 [10][11]. - **Alumina and Cast Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2627 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.61%) from January 9; the cast aluminum alloy's main closing price was 22735 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton (1.09%) from January 9 [14]. - **Shanghai Aluminum Positions**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 697874 lots, down 40763 lots (5.52%) from January 9; the net position of the top 20 was 4602 lots, up 87729 lots from January 9 [17]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 825 yuan/ton, up 1185 yuan/ton from January 9; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 76845 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from January 9 [20]. - **Spot Markets**: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang fell; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose; the A00 aluminum ingot spot price fell, and the spot discount increased [24][27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and domestic social inventory increased; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [30]. - **Bauxite**: The import volume of bauxite in November 2025 increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the nine - port inventory increased [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price in Shandong fell, the import volume increased in November 2025, and the export volume decreased [39]. - **Alumina**: The alumina output in November 2025 increased year - on - year, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [42]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum import volume in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, the output increased year - on - year, the in - production capacity, total capacity, and operating rate increased in December 2025 [45][49]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total output of aluminum products in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [53]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production capacity of cast aluminum alloy decreased in December 2025 compared to the same period last year, and the output decreased [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total output of aluminum alloy in November 2025 increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and exports increased [59]. - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index declined, and the new construction and completion areas from January to November 2024 decreased year - on - year [62]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment increased from January to November 2025; automobile sales and production in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [65]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion [69].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 铝类市场周报 需求转淡VS宏观向好，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料氧化铝价低位运行，铝厂冶炼利润较好，整体开工情况积极。供给端，国内电解铝开工 率稳中有增，但因在产产能已临近行业上限，电解铝供给增量较为零星、量级稳定。需求端，随着淡季影响的逐步显 现加之临近假期，下游开工情况有所走弱，加之铝价保持高位震荡，对下游的采买亦有一定抑制，故产业库存小幅积 累。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳中小增，需求淡季的阶段，受宏观预期利好铝价维持高位震荡。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 本周沪铝期价走强 沪铝与伦铝期价 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+2.32%，报22925元/吨。氧化铝震荡走势，周涨跌-0.54%，报2778元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，土矿价格偏稳运行，港 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 铝类市场周报 供给稳定需求韧性，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝先跌后升，周涨跌幅+0.07%，报22185元/吨。氧化铝先升后降，周涨跌+1.21%，报2500元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，进口矿季节性影响减弱，发运逐步回稳，国内港口库存回升，铝土矿价格持稳，原料供给较 充足。供给方面，由于氧化铝价已跌破理论成本线，利润侵蚀的影响下，国内产能及开工或有小幅回落，未来利润倒 挂情况若持续，大面积减产现象发生可能性增大。需求方面，电解铝厂在产产能基本持稳，已临近行业上限，对氧化 铝需求亦保持稳定态势。整体来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段。由于行业供给仍偏多，库存高 企，后续需逐步跟踪观测冶炼厂实际控产能情况。 观点总结：氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ningxia Weier Precision Engineering Co., Ltd. has signed a guidance agreement with Kaiyuan Securities for the public issuance of shares to unspecified qualified investors and listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - The company submitted the filing materials for the public issuance of shares to the Ningxia Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on November 28 [1] - Weier Precision was listed on the New Third Board in July 2025 and is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a key "little giant" enterprise [1] Group 2 - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of key components required for high-end equipment manufacturing, with products categorized into cast steel, cast aluminum, and cast iron based on raw material types [1] - Cast steel products are primarily used in mining machinery and solar thermal power generation, while cast aluminum is used in rail transit and ultra-high voltage power transmission [1] - Cast iron products are mainly utilized in the automotive parts sector [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals suggest a stable supply and slightly weakened demand due to the off - season. The social inventory remains stable. It is recommended to trade the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is advised to trade the main contract of alumina lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the raw material supply shortage still supports the spot price. It is recommended to trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is favorable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is transitioning to the off - season, and the spot trading sentiment has slightly improved. The overall fundamentals are stable supply and slightly weakened demand [4]. - **Alumina**: The raw material supply will gradually be sufficient, the supply is abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The subsequent production cut situation needs to be observed [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material cost is supported, the supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand may slightly weaken as it transitions from the peak to the off - season [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from November 14; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,806.5 dollars/ton, down 2.45% from November 14. The alumina futures price was 2,706 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from November 14, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 20,595 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from November 14 [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from November 14. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton from November 14, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,320 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from November 14 [11][20]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 612,209 lots, down 21.87% from November 14, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 14,758 lots from November 14 [15]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from November 14, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.18%, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from November 14 [22][23][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1.65% from November 13; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, unchanged from November 13. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 69,283 tons, up 7.01% from November 14, and the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 484,800 tons, down 7.04% from November 13 [31][34]. - **Raw Material Import and Port Inventory**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, down 13.3% month - on - month and up 12.31% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 170.9596 million tons, up 30.05% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 26.35 million tons, down 110,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price weakened, and in September 2025, the import volume of scrap aluminum was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 76.344 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The import volume was 189,300 tons, up 215.64% month - on - month and 2927.91% year - on - year, and the export volume was 180,000 tons, down 28% month - on - month and up 5.88% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month and up 1.54% year - on - year, the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and down 1.01% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 55.243 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 350,000 tons, up 10.4% year - on - year, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, down 12.8% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 15.96% year - on - year, and the production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 from last month and down 1.83% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, up 17.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 15.76 million tons. The import volume was 76,400 tons, down 33.77% year - on - year, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, up 50.65% year - on - year [63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year. From January to October 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,322,000 units, up 8.81% year - on - year, and production was 3,359,000 units, up 12.1% year - on - year [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected volatile movement and converging volatility of the aluminum price, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73].