瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 铝类市场周报 需求转淡VS宏观向好，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料氧化铝价低位运行，铝厂冶炼利润较好，整体开工情况积极。供给端，国内电解铝开工 率稳中有增，但因在产产能已临近行业上限，电解铝供给增量较为零星、量级稳定。需求端，随着淡季影响的逐步显 现加之临近假期，下游开工情况有所走弱，加之铝价保持高位震荡，对下游的采买亦有一定抑制，故产业库存小幅积 累。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳中小增，需求淡季的阶段，受宏观预期利好铝价维持高位震荡。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 本周沪铝期价走强 沪铝与伦铝期价 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+2.32%，报22925元/吨。氧化铝震荡走势，周涨跌-0.54%，报2778元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，土矿价格偏稳运行，港 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 铝类市场周报 供给稳定需求韧性，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝先跌后升，周涨跌幅+0.07%，报22185元/吨。氧化铝先升后降，周涨跌+1.21%，报2500元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，进口矿季节性影响减弱，发运逐步回稳，国内港口库存回升，铝土矿价格持稳，原料供给较 充足。供给方面，由于氧化铝价已跌破理论成本线，利润侵蚀的影响下，国内产能及开工或有小幅回落，未来利润倒 挂情况若持续，大面积减产现象发生可能性增大。需求方面，电解铝厂在产产能基本持稳，已临近行业上限，对氧化 铝需求亦保持稳定态势。整体来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段。由于行业供给仍偏多，库存高 企，后续需逐步跟踪观测冶炼厂实际控产能情况。 观点总结：氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料 ...

公开信息显示，维尔精工于2025年7月份在我国新三板挂牌，是国家级高新技术企业、国家级专精特新重点"小巨人"企 业。公司专业从事高端装备制造所需关键零部件的研发、生产和销售，主要产品根据原材料材质不同分为铸钢、铸铝、铸铁 等。其中：铸钢主要用于矿山机械、光热发电等领域；铸铝主要用于轨道交通、特高压输变电等领域；铸铁主要用于汽车零部 件领域。 （编辑 张伟） 同时，公司于11月28日，向中国证券监督管理委员会宁夏监管局提交了向不特定合格投资者公开发行股票并在北京证券交 易所上市的辅导备案材料。 本报讯 （记者李立平）11月29日，宁夏维尔精工股份有限公司（以下简称"维尔精工"）发布公告称，公司于11月26日与开 源证券股份有限公司签署了《宁夏维尔精工股份有限公司与开源证券股份有限公司关于宁夏维尔精工股份有限公司向不特定合 格投资者公开发行股票并在北京证券交易所上市之辅导协议》。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals suggest a stable supply and slightly weakened demand due to the off - season. The social inventory remains stable. It is recommended to trade the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is advised to trade the main contract of alumina lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the raw material supply shortage still supports the spot price. It is recommended to trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is favorable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is transitioning to the off - season, and the spot trading sentiment has slightly improved. The overall fundamentals are stable supply and slightly weakened demand [4]. - **Alumina**: The raw material supply will gradually be sufficient, the supply is abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The subsequent production cut situation needs to be observed [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material cost is supported, the supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand may slightly weaken as it transitions from the peak to the off - season [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from November 14; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,806.5 dollars/ton, down 2.45% from November 14. The alumina futures price was 2,706 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from November 14, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 20,595 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from November 14 [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from November 14. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton from November 14, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,320 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from November 14 [11][20]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 612,209 lots, down 21.87% from November 14, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 14,758 lots from November 14 [15]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from November 14, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.18%, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from November 14 [22][23][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1.65% from November 13; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, unchanged from November 13. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 69,283 tons, up 7.01% from November 14, and the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 484,800 tons, down 7.04% from November 13 [31][34]. - **Raw Material Import and Port Inventory**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, down 13.3% month - on - month and up 12.31% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 170.9596 million tons, up 30.05% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 26.35 million tons, down 110,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price weakened, and in September 2025, the import volume of scrap aluminum was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 76.344 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The import volume was 189,300 tons, up 215.64% month - on - month and 2927.91% year - on - year, and the export volume was 180,000 tons, down 28% month - on - month and up 5.88% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month and up 1.54% year - on - year, the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and down 1.01% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 55.243 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 350,000 tons, up 10.4% year - on - year, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, down 12.8% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 15.96% year - on - year, and the production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 from last month and down 1.83% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, up 17.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 15.76 million tons. The import volume was 76,400 tons, down 33.77% year - on - year, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, up 50.65% year - on - year [63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year. From January to October 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,322,000 units, up 8.81% year - on - year, and production was 3,359,000 units, up 12.1% year - on - year [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected volatile movement and converging volatility of the aluminum price, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the supply may slightly converge while the demand remains relatively stable. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight increase in social inventory. It is suggested to lightly trade the Shanghai Aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and slightly decreasing demand. It is recommended to lightly trade the cast aluminum main contract in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. - In the options market, considering the subsequent aluminum price to fluctuate with potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, rising first and then falling, with a weekly increase of 0.99% to 21,840 yuan/ton. Alumina rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 1.4% to 2,822 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 0.4% to 21,095 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Alumina**: The supply tension of bauxite may ease. The current high - running capacity and high - level operation of alumina may affect smelter profits, leading to some high - cost enterprises reducing production. The demand from electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable. The supply - demand situation may improve with production control [5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material price rebounds slightly but remains low, and the smelter profit is good with high - level operation of capacity and high start - up rate. The domestic supply may remain high. The demand may slow down due to the transition of downstream consumption from peak to off - peak season and high aluminum prices, but the export demand may be boosted by overseas supply disturbances, resulting in only a slight increase in domestic inventory [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of domestic scrap aluminum remains tight, and the cost support is strong. The production of cast aluminum enterprises is limited, and the demand may be affected by high prices and the transition from peak to off - peak season [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7. LME Aluminum closed at 2,877 US dollars/ton on November 13, up 34 US dollars/ton (1.2%) from November 7. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.64, down 0.21 from November 7 [9][10]. - As of November 14, 2025, the alumina futures price was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (1.82%) from November 7. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21,095 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (0.4%) from November 7 [13]. - **Position and Net Position**: As of November 14, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 783,579 lots, up 53,411 lots (7.31%) from November 7. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 29,167 lots from November 7 [16]. - **Futures Price Difference**: As of November 14, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 585 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan/ton from November 7. The copper - aluminum futures price difference was 65,060 yuan/ton, up 745 yuan/ton from November 7 [21]. - **Spot Price Movement**: - As of November 14, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained unchanged from November 7 at 2,855 yuan/ton. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,650 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.93%) from November 7 [24]. - As of November 14, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 21,890 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton (1.44%) from November 7. The spot discount was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: - As of November 13, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, up 4,825 tons (0.88%) from November 6. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons on November 7, down 239 tons (0.21%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, up 1,000 tons (0.18%) from November 6 [33]. - As of November 14, 2025, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 64,742 tons, up 972 tons (1.52%) from November 7. The total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 521,525 tons on November 13, up 14,575 tons (2.88%) from November 6 [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% month - on - month but up 38.14% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 157.3053 million tons, up 31.97% year - on - year [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and crushed materials was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [44]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the alumina production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 68.5599 million tons, up 8.4% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% month - on - month but up 61.68% year - on - year, and the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 548,400 tons, down 57.78% year - on - year [47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. - In October 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month but up 1.54% year - on - year. The total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year. The start - up rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and 1.01% from the same period last year [54]. - In September 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 246,800 tons, up 80.13% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative import was 1.9595 million tons, up 18.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 29,000 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 181,400 tons. From January to August 2025, the global aluminum market supply gap was 105,400 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Products**: - In September 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 49.7675 million tons, unchanged year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year, and the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 3.01 million tons, up 5.7% year - on - year, and the export was 4.52 million tons, down 8.1% year - on - year [58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month but up 15.96% year - on - year. The production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 tons month - on - month and 1.83% year - on - year [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production was 14.116 million tons. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year, and the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year. From January to September, the import was 765,200 tons, down 13.97% year - on - year, and the export was 197,800 tons, up 9.62% year - on - year [64]. - **Related Industries**: - In October 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month but up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year [67]. - From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, up 8.81% year - on - year, and the production was 3.359 million, up 12.1% year - on - year [70]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Given the subsequent fluctuating aluminum price and potential volatility convergence, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [74].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The raw material end shows that the rainy season in Guinea is ending, and the subsequent import volume of bauxite may recover, but the current supply is still tight and port inventories are slightly decreasing. Supply may gradually converge as high - cost enterprises face losses and carry out maintenance and production cuts. Demand is expected to increase steadily as the electrolytic aluminum industry is in the peak season, with strong aluminum prices and high production enthusiasm. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices [4][5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina, the raw material, is still abundant, with low prices. Aluminum prices are strong, increasing smelter profits and production enthusiasm. Domestic production capacity is approaching the industry limit, and supply is expected to remain stable. However, the traditional peak consumption season is ending, and downstream demand may decline, with inventory accumulating. It is recommended to lightly go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum, the raw material, is tight, and the price of casting aluminum auxiliary materials is rising, providing strong cost support. Supply may slow down due to raw material shortages. High aluminum prices have led to weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to lightly go short on the cast aluminum main contract at high prices [7]. - **Options Market**: Considering that aluminum prices may face pressure in the future and volatility may increase, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Alumina**: Go long on the main contract at low prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: Go short on the main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of November 7, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from October 31; LME Aluminum closed at 2,843 US dollars/ton on November 6, down 0.94% from October 31. Alumina futures were at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from October 31; cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,010 yuan/ton, up 0.99% [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.6 on November 7, down 0.25 from October 31. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,315 yuan/ton, down 1,395 yuan/ton [11][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Aluminum's open interest was 730,168 lots on November 7, up 17.44% from October 31. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 25,415 lots [17]. - **Spot Prices**: As of November 7, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,580 yuan/ton, up 1.31% from October 31 with a spot discount of 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy increased [25][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 6, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 548,375 tons, up 19.34% from October 30; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 565,000 tons, up 0.71% from October 30. As of November 7, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons, down 0.21% from the previous week [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons from the previous period. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% from the previous month but up 38.14% year - on - year [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year; the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% from the previous month but up 61.68% year - on - year; the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% from the previous month and 78.57% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 3.809 million tons, up 1.8% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.449 million tons, up 0.16% from the previous month and 2.11% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 0.52% year - on - year; the operating rate was 98.27%, up 0.16% from the previous month and down 1.53% year - on - year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, the production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year; the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 656,500 tons, up 3.25% from the previous month and 10% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 15.96% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year; the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year [63]. - **Real Estate**: In September 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 92.78, down 0.27 from the previous month and up 0.47 year - on - year. From January to September 2024, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, down 19% year - on - year; the completed housing area was 311.2888 million square meters, down 14.96% year - on - year [66]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to September 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year. In September 2025, Chinese automobile sales were 3,226,375 units, up 14.86% year - on - year; production was 3,275,802 units, up 17.15% year - on - year [69]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Due to expected pressure on aluminum prices and increased volatility, consider a double - buying strategy to bet on increased volatility [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum market show that electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosting demand, while alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand. Cast aluminum alloy may face a situation of slowing supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control. Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [6][7][9][73]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina in the raw material end is still excessive, and the alumina price is approaching the cost line. The smelters have good profits and positive production sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is boosted by the improvement of the domestic macro - sentiment and the development of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic fields. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum [6]. - **Alumina**: The rainy season in Guinea continues to affect the import of domestic bauxite, and the bauxite price remains firm. The supply is still excessive, but may be forced to converge as the price approaches the cost line. The demand is stable due to the high - level operation of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of alumina [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply growth may slow down, while the demand is supported by the sales strategies of the automobile and motorcycle industries. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on the main contract of cast aluminum [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Trends**: As of October 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 21,295 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from October 24; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,870 US dollars/ton, up 0.17% from October 24. The price of the alumina contract weakened, with the price at 2,770 yuan/ton on October 31, down 0.54% from October 24. The price of the cast aluminum contract strengthened, with the closing price of the main contract at 20,805 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.48% from October 24 [12][16]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of October 31, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.4, down 0.45 from October 24. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from October 24; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 65,710 yuan/ton, down 785 yuan/ton from October 24 [13][24]. - **Spot Markets**: The spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang regions weakened, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) increased. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots strengthened, with a price of 21,300 yuan/ton on October 31, up 0.8% from October 24, and the spot discount was 10 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week [27][30]. - **Position and Open Interest**: As of October 31, 2025, the open interest of Shanghai aluminum was 621,737 lots, up 2.4% from October 24, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 9,239 lots from October 24 [19]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of October 30 - 31, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 3.8%, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.89%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 1.23%. The warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 3.45%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24% [33]. - **Bauxite**: The import volume of bauxite in September 2025 was 15.8806 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.17% and a year - on - year increase of 38.14%. The inventory of nine ports decreased by 100,000 tons month - on - month [36]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quotation of broken scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. In September 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 1.1% year - on - year [42]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the output of alumina increased by 8.7% year - on - year, the import volume decreased by 36.43% month - on - month and increased by 61.68% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year [45]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by 80.13% year - on - year, and the output increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The in - production capacity increased by 0.16% month - on - month and 2.11% year - on - year, the total capacity was flat month - on - month and increased by 0.52% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.27% [48][52]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, the output of aluminum products decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 35.4% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 7.3% year - on - year [56]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the output of cast aluminum alloy increased by 10% year - on - year, and the built - in capacity increased by 15.96% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the output of aluminum alloy increased by 17.1% year - on - year, the import volume decreased by 13.21% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 2.06% year - on - year [62]. - **Real Estate**: In September 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.78, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27. From January to September 2024, the new construction area decreased by 19% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 14.96% year - on - year [65]. - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to September 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year. In September 2025, automobile sales increased by 14.86% year - on - year, and production increased by 17.15% year - on - year [68]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be supported by positive expectations and inventory depletion. For different aluminum - related products, the fundamentals show different characteristics, but generally present a positive outlook. It is recommended to conduct light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum all showed a strong and upward trend. Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.51% to 21,225 yuan/ton, Alumina increased 0.36% to 2,810 yuan/ton, and Cast Aluminum rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Fundamentals**: For electrolytic aluminum, supply may increase slightly, while consumption is strong, and inventory is depleting. For alumina, supply is expected to decrease, and demand may be slightly boosted. For cast aluminum, it is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory depletion and positive expectations [5][6][9]. - **Strategies**: Light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: As of October 24, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,205 yuan/ton, up 1.53% from October 17; London Aluminum closed at 2,865 US dollars/ton on October 23, up 2.47% from October 17. Alumina futures rose 0.22% to 2,785 yuan/ton, and cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [12][16]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.38, down 0.47 from October 17. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,130 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from October 17, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 66,495 yuan/ton, up 3,015 yuan/ton from October 17 [13][21]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Aluminum's position increased by 22.47% to 607,128 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 10,191 lots to 4,602 lots. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 0.81% to 21,130 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [19][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of October 23, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased 3.56% to 477,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased 2.2% to 122,028 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased 0.7% to 568,000 tons. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased 5.62% to 66,695 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The import volume of bauxite in September 2025 was 15.8806 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.17% and a year - on - year increase of 38.14%. The inventory of nine bauxite ports decreased by 100,000 tons to 26.69 million tons. The price of scrap aluminum was firm, and in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 25.3% year - on - year, while the export volume decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [37][43]. - **Production and Trade**: In September 2025, alumina production increased 8.7% year - on - year, imports decreased 36.43% month - on - month and increased 61.68% year - on - year, and exports increased 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. Electrolytic aluminum production increased 1.8% year - on - year, and imports increased 80.13% year - on - year in September 2025. The total output of aluminum products decreased 1.5% year - on - year, imports increased 35.4% year - on - year, and exports decreased 7.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy increased 10% year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased 17.1% year - on - year, with imports decreasing and exports increasing [46][53][57]. - **Downstream Markets**: The real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 92.78 in September 2025, down 0.27 from the previous month. Infrastructure investment increased 3.34% year - on - year from January to September 2024. In September 2025, automobile sales increased 14.86% year - on - year, and production increased 17.15% year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buy strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and improving demand, and it is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of gradually decreasing supply and stable demand, and it is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract of alumina at low prices [8]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage of decreasing supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory, and it is recommended to lightly trade the main contract of cast aluminum in a volatile manner [10]. - Considering that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The supply side has high smelting profits and high operating rates, and the supply may increase slightly. The demand side is boosted by the domestic macro - economy and the traditional peak season, with improved downstream operations and obvious inventory reduction. It is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract at low prices [7]. - **Alumina**: The raw material port inventory is decreasing, and the supply may decrease due to profit losses. The demand is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to lightly go long on the main contract at low prices [8]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply is restricted by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand is stable but affected by high raw material prices. The inventory is relatively high. It is recommended to lightly trade the main contract in a volatile manner [10]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of October 17, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,885 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from October 10; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,796 US dollars/ton, up 0.49% from October 10. The alumina futures price was 2,779 yuan/ton, down 1.94% from October 10; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,390 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from October 10 [13][17]. - **Position Changes**: As of October 17, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 495,719 lots, down 3.11% from October 10, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 7,345 lots from October 10 [20]. - **Price Spread Changes**: As of October 17, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 905 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan/ton from October 10; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 63,480 yuan/ton, down 1,450 yuan/ton from October 10 [25]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of alumina, cast aluminum, and domestic Shanghai Aluminum all weakened. For example, the average price of alumina in Henan was 2,890 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from October 10 [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 495,325 tons, down 2.61% from October 9; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 122,028 tons, down 2.2% from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 572,000 tons, down 3.7% from October 9 [38]. - **Raw Materials**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory decreased. The scrap aluminum quotation was firm, with increased imports and decreased exports [41][48]. - **Production and Trade**: In August 2025, the alumina production increased year - on - year, with decreased imports and exports month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum import increased year - on - year; the electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year in the cumulative value; the total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, with increased imports and decreased exports year - on - year; the production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year; the total production of aluminum alloy increased, with decreased imports and increased exports [51][54][62]. - **Downstream Markets**: The real estate market declined slightly, the infrastructure investment was favorable, and the automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [71][74]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buy strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [78].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 铝类市场周报 需求提振预期向好，铝类或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝先升后降，周涨跌幅+1.45%，报20980元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏弱，周涨跌-0.42%，报2856元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，受几内亚气候原因发运减少的影响，国内土矿供给仍将呈现收减态势，土矿报价较为坚挺。 供给方面，氧化铝现货价格虽有走弱，但冶炼厂利润空间尚在，故并未出现大面积减产情况，开工率仍保持较高水平， 国内氧化铝供给量保持稳定。需求方面，电解铝产能由于前期置换、技改项目陆续完成投产，令在运行产能小幅提升， 但由于电解铝产能上限的原因，令其对氧化铝消费提振仅小幅度。整体来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求小 增的局面。 策略建议：氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：铸铝主力合约先涨后跌， ...