1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to trade the alumina main contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract with a light position on dips for short - term long positions, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [10]. - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum's weekly line fluctuated weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.77%, closing at 24,020 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated strongly, with a weekly change of + 2.88%, closing at 3,041 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 3.57%, closing at 22,810 yuan/ton [7][10]. - **Market Outlook** - **Alumina**: On the raw material side, the mining of bauxite in Guinea has seasonally recovered, but due to geopolitical conflicts, shipping capacity has decreased and shipping costs have increased, pushing up the cost of bauxite and supporting the cost of alumina. On the supply side, alumina imports have increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and with the release of new production capacity, the domestic alumina supply remains relatively high. On the demand side, the weekly start - up of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants has remained stable. Affected by the overseas situation, the international aluminum supply has turned to negative growth, and there may be export demand in the future, with an expected increase in demand for raw material alumina [7]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the raw material side, the alumina price has risen due to geopolitical situations, and the aluminum price has strengthened due to the expected overseas supply gap, keeping the smelter's theoretical profit at an advantage. On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants have maintained a high start - up rate due to good smelting profits and sufficient raw material supply, and the domestic supply has remained stable. On the demand side, with the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, the start - up rate of downstream aluminum products has increased. However, affected by the geopolitical impact on economic expectations, the aluminum price has been under pressure at high levels and fluctuated sharply, and the downstream purchasing willingness has gradually become cautious. As the aluminum price corrects, downstream consumption may be boosted. In addition, the stagnation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East due to the war may lead to a gap in international aluminum supply, supporting the domestic electrolytic aluminum export expectations [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: On the supply side, the scrap aluminum price has weakened as the aluminum price has corrected, and the holders' sentiment of holding back sales has become stronger. The high scrap aluminum price still provides strong support for cast aluminum. Cast aluminum plants have been actively putting into production, but due to the scrap aluminum traders' reluctance to sell, they mainly consume raw material inventories and make rigid purchases of scrap aluminum, and the domestic cast aluminum alloy supply may increase. On the demand side, downstream die - casting plants have become more cautious in purchasing due to the high price of cast aluminum alloy, mainly adopting strategies of replenishing at low prices and making rigid purchases, and the spot market trading has been relatively light [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,040 yuan/ton or 4.16% from March 13. As of March 19, 2026, the LME aluminum closing price was 3,242 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 291 US dollars/ton or 8.24% from March 13 [13]. - As of March 20, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 141 yuan/ton or 4.98% from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 22,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845 yuan/ton or 3.57% from March 13 [16]. - As of March 20, 2026, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 24,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,070 yuan/ton or 4.26% from March 13. The spot discount was 160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [30]. - **Position Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 585,532 lots, a decrease of 103,515 lots or 15.02% from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 65,831 lots from March 13 [19]. - **Price Difference Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was - 1,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton from March 13. As of March 20, 2026, the copper - aluminum futures price difference was 70,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,630 yuan/ton from March 13 [22]. - **Spot Price Changes** - As of March 20, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan was 2,765 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 2.22% from March 13; the average alumina price in Shanxi was 2,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 2.79% from March 13; the average alumina price in Guiyang was 2,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 2.79% from March 13. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton or 1.98% from March 13 [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory** - As of March 19, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a decrease of 14,575 tons or 3.26% from March 12. As of March 20, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 452,044 tons, an increase of 35,619 tons or 8.55% from the previous week. As of March 19, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1,299,000 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons or 3% from March 12 [35]. - As of March 20, 2026, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 403,558 tons, an increase of 41,590 tons or 11.49% from March 13. As of March 19, 2026, the total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 273,050 tons, an increase of 250 tons or 0.09% from March 12 [35]. - **Bauxite** - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 24.49 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 310,000 tons. According to customs data, in February 2026, the monthly import of bauxite was 16.953 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.95% and a year - on - year increase of 18.05%. From January to February this year, the imported bauxite was 36.2058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [38]. - **Scrap Aluminum** - As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 650 yuan/ton. According to customs data, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and crushed materials was 194,102.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%; the export volume was 70.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [44]. - **Alumina** - In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative alumina output was 15.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. In December 2025, the alumina import volume was 227,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1389.71%; the alumina export volume was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.53% and a year - on - year increase of 10.53%. From January to December, the cumulative alumina import was 1.1978 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [46][47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 387,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 753,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.916 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 2.12%; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%; the start - up rate was 98.93%, an increase of 0.04% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.56% from the same period last year [54]. - In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 201,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.65%. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 390,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.97%. In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 10,000 tons. From January to February, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 23,300 tons. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, from January to January 2026, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 218,200 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Products** - In December 2025, the aluminum product output was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year flat of 0%. From January to February, the cumulative aluminum product output was 9.486 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In February 2026, the aluminum product import volume was 290,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%; the export volume was 430,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. From January to February, the aluminum product import volume was 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; the export volume was 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [57][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - In February 2026, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month flat of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. In February 2026, the recycled aluminum alloy output was 270,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.47% [61]. - **Aluminum Alloy** - In December 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 93,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%; the export volume was 25,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.03%. From January to December, the aluminum alloy import volume was 1.0084 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.82%; the export volume was 284,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [64]. - **Real Estate Market** - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and a decrease of 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to February 2024, the new housing start - up area was 50.839 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.13%; the housing completion area was 63.2042 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.99% [67]. - **Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Production and Sales** - From January to February 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1,805,165 units, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%; the production volume was 1,672,445 units, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47% [70]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, its fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main alumina contract at low prices with light positions, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6] - For electrolytic aluminum, its fundamentals may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with seasonal accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main Shanghai aluminum contract at low prices with light positions, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7] - For cast aluminum, its fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increasing, with downstream purchasing意愿 driving industrial inventory reduction. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main cast aluminum contract at low prices with light positions, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [70] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum's weekly line first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 3.69%, closing at 24,715 yuan/ton. Alumina slightly rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.21%, closing at 2,832 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 2.42%, closing at 23,280 yuan/ton [6][9] - **Market Outlook** - **Alumina**: The raw material supply of bauxite in Guinea has a seasonal recovery, but due to geopolitical conflicts, shipping capacity decreases and shipping costs increase, so bauxite prices may be supported. The smelters have gradually completed resumption of work, and the industry's operating rate remains at a high level, with domestic alumina supply remaining high. The Middle - East geopolitical disputes limit the electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity in the region, affecting global supply. The rise in aluminum prices improves the profit situation of domestic downstream electrolytic aluminum plants, and the new electrolytic aluminum projects after the Spring Festival are gradually ramping up production, so the demand for alumina is steadily increasing [6] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Affected by geopolitics, the electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity in the Middle - East region is limited, tightening global aluminum supply and strengthening aluminum prices. Although domestic alumina supply is still sufficient, alumina prices have increased due to geopolitical conflicts, and electrolytic aluminum prices have also increased significantly, so the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum has slightly expanded. The new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum plants is gradually ramping up, and with good smelting profits, the upstream operating rate is expected to remain high, and domestic electrolytic aluminum supply may increase slightly. After the Spring Festival, downstream aluminum processing has gradually entered the rhythm of resuming work and production. Driven by the traditional consumption peak season and positive expectations of domestic consumption - boosting policies, downstream demand will gradually emerge. However, the short - term rise in aluminum prices will have a certain impact on downstream consumption [7] - **Cast Aluminum**: The price of scrap aluminum has risen strongly as the price of aluminum products increases, and the increase in cost also supports the strong operation of cast aluminum prices. In response to domestic environmental protection policies, new recycled aluminum projects are gradually ramping up production, and the supply of cast aluminum has increased. After the resumption of work, downstream die - casting plants have a high willingness to stock up on cast aluminum and are actively inquiring, so the inventory of aluminum alloys is decreasing [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price Movement** - As of March 6, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 24,645 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton or 3.79% compared to February 27. As of March 5, 2026, the closing price of LME aluminum was 3,292.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 151 US dollars/ton or 4.81% compared to February 27. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.5, a decrease of 0.34 compared to February 27 [12][13] - As of March 6, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2,758 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan/ton or 1.92% compared to February 27, 2026. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 23,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton or 2.42% compared to February 27 [16] - **Position Changes**: As of March 6, 2026, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 676,742 lots, an increase of 12,624 lots or 1.9% compared to February 27. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 74,471 lots compared to February 27, 2026 [19] - **Price Spread Changes**: As of March 6, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was - 455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,330 yuan/ton compared to February 27. The copper - aluminum futures price spread was 76,335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,750 yuan/ton compared to February 27 [22] - **Spot Price Movement** - As of March 6, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan was 2,665 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 0.76% compared to February 27; the average alumina price in Shanxi was 2,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.38% compared to February 27; the average alumina price in Guiyang was 2,660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.38% compared to February 27. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton or 2.94% compared to February 27 [26] - As of March 6, 2026, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 24,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,060 yuan/ton or 4.54% compared to February 27, 2026. The spot discount was 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [29] - As of March 5, 2026, the price difference between the near - month LME aluminum and the March contract was - 2.86 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.78 US dollars/ton compared to February 26 [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of March 5, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 459,125 tons, a decrease of 8,425 tons or 1.8% compared to February 26; as of March 6, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 394,498 tons, an increase of 38,512 tons or 10.82% compared to the previous week; as of March 5, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1,214,200 tons, an increase of 96,100 tons or 8.59% compared to February 26. As of March 6, 2026, the total SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 329,627 tons, an increase of 40,329 tons or 13.94% compared to February 27; as of March 5, 2026, the total LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 377,100 tons, a decrease of 45,125 tons or 10.69% compared to February 26 [31][34] - **Bauxite**: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 24.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. According to customs data, in December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02%. From January to December this year, the import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.31% [37] - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 18,550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 750 yuan/ton. According to customs data, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and scraps was 194,102.07 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.8%; the export volume was 70.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [43] - **Alumina**: In December 2025, the alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%; from January to December, the cumulative alumina production was 92.4456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. In December 2025, the alumina import volume was 227,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1389.71%; the alumina export volume was 210,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.53% and a year - on - year increase of 10.53%. From January to December, the cumulative alumina import was 1.1978 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [46] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.874 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%; from January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 45.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. In January 2026, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.854 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 2.28%; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 0.51%; the operating rate was 98.79%, an increase of 0.48% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 1.71% compared to the same period last year. In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 189,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.22%; from January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.5376 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.82%; in December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 37,600 tons, and from January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 296,600 tons. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, from January to November 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 204,900 tons [49][52] - **Aluminum Products**: In December 2025, the aluminum product production was 6.1356 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0%; from January to December, the cumulative aluminum product production was 67.5039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In December 2025, the aluminum product import volume was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to December, the aluminum product import volume was 3.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the export volume was 6.13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [56] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In January 2026, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0% and a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. In January 2026, the recycled aluminum alloy production was 664,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3 and a year - on - year increase of 10.95% [59] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%; from January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 93,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%; the export volume was 25,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.03%. From January to December, the aluminum alloy import volume was 1.0084 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.82%; the export volume was 284,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.5% [62] - **Real Estate**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 compared to the previous month and a decrease of 1.1 compared to the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9% [65] - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to December 2024, the infrastructure investment decreased by - 1.48% year - on - year. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%; the production volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,295,965 units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.09% [68] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increasing volatility [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals show sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals indicate stable supply and a slight decline in demand. After the long - holiday, demand is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5] - For cast aluminum, the fundamentals are in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand and relatively high industrial inventory. After the holiday, cast aluminum consumption is expected to pick up. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7] - In the option market, considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review** - Shanghai aluminum's weekly line fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 0.51%, closing at 23,195 yuan/ton. Alumina showed a fluctuating trend, with a weekly change of + 0.6%, closing at 2,841 yuan/ton. Cast aluminum's main contract showed a fluctuating trend, with a weekly change of + 0.41%, closing at 22,040 yuan/ton [4][7] - **Market Outlook** - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is gradually decreasing, and the domestic bauxite supply is gradually sufficient. The overall start - up of alumina smelters is stable, and may decline slightly due to the approaching holiday. The domestic supply is generally stable, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum gradually boosts the demand for alumina, but the increase is limited [4] - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The raw material alumina is priced at a low level, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is still good. The start - up of production remains stable. Limited by the production capacity ceiling and fewer production days, the domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum is generally stable with a slight decline. The demand from downstream processing enterprises has weakened due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the spot market transactions are relatively light, with obvious inventory accumulation [5] - **Cast aluminum**: The price of primary aluminum is still at a relatively high level, and the cost of scrap aluminum has increased due to climate reasons, providing cost support for cast aluminum. As the holiday approaches, recycled aluminum plants are gradually shutting down, and the domestic supply of cast aluminum has decreased. Downstream die - casting enterprises are also in the long - holiday shutdown state, and the relatively high price of cast aluminum has suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 23,155 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton or 0.56% from February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME aluminum was 3,097.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 71.5 US dollars/ton or 2.36% from February 6. The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.6, a decrease of 0.25 from February 6 [10][11] - As of February 13, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton or 0.85% from February 6. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 22,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton or 0.41% from February 6 [14] - **Position Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 629,783 lots, a decrease of 21,220 lots or 3.26% from February 6. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 57,233 lots from February 6 [17] - **Price Difference Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price difference was 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from February 6. The copper - aluminum futures price difference was 77,185 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from February 6 [20] - **Spot Price Changes** - As of February 13, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained unchanged from February 6. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 23,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.42% from February 6 [25] - As of February 13, 2026, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 23,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.04% from February 6. The spot discount was 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [28] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory Changes** - As of February 12, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 483,550 tons, a decrease of 9,425 tons or 1.91% from February 5. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 861,100 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons or 8.16% from February 5. As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 245,140 tons [30][33] - As of February 13, 2026, the total warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum were 202,395 tons, an increase of 46,862 tons or 30.13% from February 6. As of February 12, 2026, the total registered warehouse receipts of LME electrolytic aluminum were 441,425 tons, an increase of 775 tons or 0.18% from February 5 [33] - **Bauxite Import and Inventory** - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 24.63 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons from the previous month. In December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous month and 2.02% from the same period last year. From January to December, the import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, an increase of 26.31% from the same period last year [36] - **Scrap Aluminum Situation** - As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 17,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week. In December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 194,102.07 tons, an increase of 22.8% from the same period last year; the export volume was 70.8 tons, a decrease of 4.4% from the same period last year [40] - **Alumina Production and Trade** - In December 2025, the alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative alumina production was 92.4456 million tons, an increase of 8% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the alumina import volume was 227,800 tons, a decrease of 1.99% from the previous month and an increase of 1389.71% from the same period last year; the export volume was 210,000 tons, an increase of 23.53% from the previous month and 10.53% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative alumina import was 1.1978 million tons, a decrease of 15.64% from the same period last year [45] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Trade and Production** - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 189,200 tons, an increase of 17.22% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.5376 million tons, an increase of 18.82% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 37,600 tons. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 296,600 tons. From January to November 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 204,900 tons [48] - In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 387,400 tons, an increase of 3% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 4.5016 million tons, an increase of 2.4% from the same period last year. In January 2026, the domestic in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.854 million tons, an increase of 0.58% from the previous month and 2.28% from the same period last year; the total capacity was 45.402 million tons, an increase of 0.09% from the previous month and 0.51% from the same period last year; the start - up rate was 98.79%, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and a decrease of 1.71% from the same period last year [51] - **Aluminum Products Production and Trade** - In December 2025, the aluminum products production was 6.1356 million tons, a decrease of 0% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum products production was 67.5039 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% from the same period last year. In December 2025, the aluminum products import volume was 320,000 tons, an increase of 7.1% from the same period last year; the export volume was 540,000 tons, an increase of 7.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the aluminum products import volume was 3.92 million tons, an increase of 4.6% from the same period last year; the export volume was 6.13 million tons, a decrease of 8% from the same period last year [55] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Situation** - In January 2026, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a decrease of 0% from the previous month and an increase of 9.03% from the same period last year. The production of recycled aluminum alloy was 664,900 tons, a decrease of 3 from the previous month and an increase of 10.95% from the same period last year [58] - **Aluminum Alloy Production and Trade** - In December 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% from the same period last year. From January to December, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 19.297 million tons. In December 2025, the aluminum alloy import volume was 93,100 tons, a decrease of 11.81% from the same period last year; the export volume was 25,500 tons, an increase of 20.03% from the same period last year. From January to December, the aluminum alloy import volume was 1.0084 million tons, a decrease of 16.82% from the same period last year; the export volume was 284,700 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last year [61] - **Real Estate Market** - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing start - up area was 587.6996 million square meters, a decrease of 20.47% from the same period last year; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a decrease of 23.9% from the same period last year [64] - **Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Production and Sales** - From January to December 2024, the infrastructure investment decreased by - 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a decrease of 6.2% from the same period last year; the production volume was 3,295,965 units, a decrease of 2.09% from the same period last year [67] 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, with the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants still good. The operating capacity has a slight increase, but the increment is limited due to the industry ceiling. The demand has recovered as downstream processing enterprises stock up before the festival, but it may gradually weaken as the stocking nears the end and the holiday approaches. The industrial inventory accumulates seasonally. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. Alumina - The cost support of alumina weakens as the supply of domestic bauxite becomes sufficient and the purchase demand of alumina plants is weak. The supply is abundant as the smelter production sentiment is driven by the good performance of the alumina disk, and the industrial inventory accumulates slightly. The demand for alumina increases steadily as new electrolytic aluminum production capacity is put into operation, but the increment is limited. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory trading with a light position for the main contract of alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Cast Aluminum - The supply of cast aluminum alloy decreases slightly as recycling aluminum plants gradually enter the shutdown state. The demand improves slightly as downstream die - casting enterprises increase their willingness to purchase at low prices, but the spot market transaction only improves slightly due to the seasonal off - season and stricter environmental protection policies. The supply of cast aluminum is still excessive, and the industrial inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to conduct oscillatory trading with a light position for the main contract of cast aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. Options Market - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on the increase in volatility [72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Supply is stable, demand recovers, and industrial inventory accumulates seasonally. Suggest light - position short - term long positions at low prices [6]. - **Alumina**: Supply is sufficient, demand is stable, and industrial inventory accumulates slightly. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [7]. - **Cast Aluminum**: Supply decreases slightly, demand improves slightly, and supply is still excessive with high inventory. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of February 6, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 23,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.61% from January 30; the closing price of LME aluminum was 3,026 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.98% from January 30. The alumina futures price increased by 0.31% to 2,603 yuan/ton, and the cast - aluminum alloy main contract closing price decreased by 3.81% to 21,950 yuan/ton [12][16]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.71, a decrease of 0.13 from January 30. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from January 30; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 76,785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,335 yuan/ton from January 30 [13][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 651,002 lots, a decrease of 12.3% from January 30; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 61,620 lots [19]. - **Spot Price**: As of February 6, 2026, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 23,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.21% from January 30, with a spot discount of 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang remained flat compared with January 30, and the national average price of cast - aluminum alloy (ADC12) decreased by 3.29% to 23,550 yuan/ton [25][29]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of February 5, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.95% to 492,975 tons; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 10.01% to 216,771 tons; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 7.29% to 796,100 tons. As of February 6, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 7.21% to 155,533 tons; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.28% to 440,650 tons [34]. - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite inventory at nine ports decreased by 370,000 tons. In December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% month - on - month and 2.02% year - on - year. From January to December, the total import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, an increase of 26.31% year - on - year [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong decreased by 750 yuan/ton week - on - week. In December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and fragments increased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the export decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In December 2025, the alumina production was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year - on - year; the total production from January to December was 92.4456 million tons, an increase of 8% year - on - year. The import of alumina decreased by 1.99% month - on - month and increased by 1389.71% year - on - year, and the export increased [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year; the total production from January to December was 45.016 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year - on - year. The in - production capacity increased by 0.36% month - on - month and 1.66% year - on - year, the total capacity increased by 0.27% month - on - month and 0.58% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.31% [52]. - **Aluminum Products**: In December 2025, the aluminum product production was 6.1356 million tons, with no year - on - year change; the total production from January to December was 67.5039 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% year - on - year. The import increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the export increased by 7.7% year - on - year [56]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In December 2025, the built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, with no month - on - month change and an increase of 15.96% year - on - year. The production was 684,000 tons, a decrease of 2.28 month - on - month and 2.53% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% year - on - year; the total production from January to December was 19.297 million tons. The import decreased by 11.81% year - on - year, and the export increased by 20.03% year - on - year [62]. - **Real Estate**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 20.47% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 23.9% year - on - year [65]. - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to December 2024, the infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, the automobile sales in China decreased by 6.2% year - on - year, and the production decreased by 2.09% year - on - year [68]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Given that the future volatility of aluminum prices may increase, a double - buying strategy can be used to bet on the increase in volatility [72].

Core Viewpoint - Hongde Co., Ltd. (301163.SZ) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.5 million to 46 million yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80.36% to 115.50% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 24.5 million and 32 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 22.28% to 59.72% [1] Business Strategy - The company continues to focus on its core business, specifically in the iron casting and aluminum casting sectors, which has led to enhanced revenue and profitability in the aluminum casting segment, contributing to overall performance improvement [1] Non-Recurring Income - During the reporting period, the company recorded approximately 9.2 million yuan in revenue from the sale of used sandboxes, which is classified as non-recurring income and is not sustainable [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hongde Co., Ltd. (301163) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.5 million to 46 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 80.36% to 115.5% [2] Group 1: Business Focus - The company continues to focus on its core business, specifically in the areas of cast iron and cast aluminum [2] - The revenue and profitability of the cast aluminum business have improved, contributing to the overall increase in the company's performance [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the raw material price is falling and supply is increasing, while demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is stable. The recommendation is to trade the main alumina contract with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - Regarding electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable but demand is cautious due to the off - season and high prices. The suggestion is to trade the main Shanghai aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum, the supply is converging and demand is weakening. It is recommended to trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a weakly volatile way, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Considering the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion in the options market [69]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai aluminum fell from a high, with a weekly change of - 1.66% to 23925 yuan/ton; alumina trended weakly, with a weekly change of - 3.24% to 2751 yuan/ton; cast aluminum's main contract rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 1.09% to 22735 yuan/ton [5][7]. - **Market Outlook and Views**: Alumina has an oversupply situation with stable demand; electrolytic aluminum has stable supply and cautious demand; cast aluminum has converging supply and weakening demand. Corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [5][7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum closing price was 23850 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the LME aluminum closing price on January 15 was 3167.5 dollars/ton, up 76.5 dollars/ton (2.47%) from January 9; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.63, down 0.22 from January 9 [10][11]. - **Alumina and Cast Aluminum Futures**: As of January 16, 2026, the alumina futures price was 2627 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.61%) from January 9; the cast aluminum alloy's main closing price was 22735 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton (1.09%) from January 9 [14]. - **Shanghai Aluminum Positions**: As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum position was 697874 lots, down 40763 lots (5.52%) from January 9; the net position of the top 20 was 4602 lots, up 87729 lots from January 9 [17]. - **Futures Spreads**: As of January 16, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 825 yuan/ton, up 1185 yuan/ton from January 9; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 76845 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from January 9 [20]. - **Spot Markets**: Alumina spot prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang fell; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) rose; the A00 aluminum ingot spot price fell, and the spot discount increased [24][27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and domestic social inventory increased; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [30]. - **Bauxite**: The import volume of bauxite in November 2025 increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the nine - port inventory increased [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price in Shandong fell, the import volume increased in November 2025, and the export volume decreased [39]. - **Alumina**: The alumina output in November 2025 increased year - on - year, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [42]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum import volume in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, the output increased year - on - year, the in - production capacity, total capacity, and operating rate increased in December 2025 [45][49]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total output of aluminum products in November 2025 decreased year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [53]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production capacity of cast aluminum alloy decreased in December 2025 compared to the same period last year, and the output decreased [56]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total output of aluminum alloy in November 2025 increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and exports increased [59]. - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index declined, and the new construction and completion areas from January to November 2024 decreased year - on - year [62]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment increased from January to November 2025; automobile sales and production in December 2025 decreased year - on - year [65]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the potential increase in aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on volatility expansion [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Aluminum main contract, conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6] - For Alumina main contract, conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7] - For Cast Aluminum main contract, conduct light - position oscillatory trading and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] - Given that the aluminum price will oscillate in the future and volatility may converge, consider constructing a double - selling strategy to short volatility [75] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Raw material alumina price is low, smelting profit of aluminum plants is good, and overall start - up is active. Supply increases steadily but increment is small. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory accumulates slightly. Aluminum price remains high and oscillates due to positive macro - expectations [6] - **Alumina**: Raw material bauxite price is stable, and port inventory rises slightly. Supply may gradually decrease under policy guidance, and demand is stable. It is in a stage of slightly decreasing supply and stable demand [7] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, but there is pressure to reduce production. Demand is weak in the off - season, and spot market transactions are light. It is in a stage of decreasing supply and weakening demand [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Trends**: As of December 31, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 22,950 yuan/ton, up 3.12% from December 24; LME Aluminum closed at 2,986.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.41% from December 22. Alumina futures price was 2,602 yuan/ton, up 2.12%; Cast Aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, up 1.75% [12][16] - **Ratio and Spread**: As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.54, down 0.31 from December 24. Aluminum - zinc futures spread was 350 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton; Copper - aluminum futures spread was 75,315 yuan/ton, up 1,545 yuan/ton [13][22] - **Inventory and Position**: As of December 31, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum position was 665,773 lots, up 0.54%; the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, up 15,645 lots [19] - **Spot Market**: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi and Guiyang decreased. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy was 22,450 yuan/ton, up 2.28%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 22,520 yuan/ton, up 2.18%, and the spot discount was 220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [27][30] 3.3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of December 30, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased 1.03%; as of December 26, SHFE inventory increased 6.64%; as of December 29, domestic social inventory increased 9.68%. As of December 31, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased 6.85%; as of December 30, LME registered warehouse receipts increased 0.38% [34] - **Bauxite**: The import volume in November 2025 was 15.109 million tons, up 9.76% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The nine - port inventory was 26.19 million tons, up 30,000 tons month - on - month [38] - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price in Shandong increased 100 yuan/ton week - on - week. The import volume in November 2025 was 162,756.17 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year; the export volume was 71.53 tons, down 1.7% year - on - year [44] - **Alumina**: The output in November 2025 was 8.138 million tons, up 7.6% year - on - year. The import volume was 232,400 tons, up 22.74% month - on - month and 134.12% year - on - year; the export volume was 170,000 tons, down 5.56% month - on - month and 10.53% year - on - year [47] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume in November 2025 was 146,100 tons, down 2.79% year - on - year. The output in November was 3.792 million tons, up 2.5% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, with no change month - on - month and up 1.13% year - on - year [50][54] - **Aluminum Products**: The output in November 2025 was 5.931 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 240,000 tons, down 14% year - on - year; the export volume was 570,000 tons, down 14.8% year - on - year [58] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The built - in capacity in November 2025 was 1.26 million tons, up 15.96% year - on - year. The output was 700,000 tons, up 7.12% year - on - year [61] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The output in November 2025 was 1.739 million tons, up 17% year - on - year. The import volume was 73,200 tons, down 28.2% year - on - year; the export volume was 30,600 tons, up 51.56% year - on - year [64] - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased 20.58% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased 17.58% year - on - year [67] - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, automobile sales were 3,428,998 units, up 3.4% year - on - year; production was 3,531,579 units, up 2.76% year - on - year [70] 3.4. Option Market Analysis - Given the future oscillatory movement of aluminum price and possible convergence of volatility, consider constructing a double - selling strategy to short volatility [75]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the raw material supply is relatively sufficient, with domestic production capacity and operation rate potentially dropping slightly. The demand remains stable. The alumina market may be in a stage of oversupply, and the main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [4]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the raw material price is falling while the spot price is strong, leading to expanding profits for aluminum plants. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the demand has some resilience at the end of the year but may face the impact of the off - season. The market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, and the main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the raw material supply is tight, restricting production. The demand is weak due to the off - season. The market has high inventory with slight destocking, and the main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [8]. - In the options market, considering the future aluminum price will oscillate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum first declined then rose, with a weekly change of +0.07%, closing at 22,185 yuan/ton. Alumina first rose then fell, with a weekly change of +1.21%, closing at 2,500 yuan/ton. The main contract of cast aluminum first declined then rose, with a weekly change of +0.57%, closing at 21,235 yuan/ton [4][7]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina may face a situation of oversupply and stable demand; electrolytic aluminum is likely to be in a state of tight supply - demand balance; cast aluminum alloy may experience a slight decline in supply and a slowdown in demand [4][5][8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price**: As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 22,120 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from December 12, a rise of 0.2%. The closing price of LME aluminum on December 18 was 2,916 dollars/ton, up 21 dollars/ton from December 12, a rise of 0.73%. The alumina futures price was 2,524 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan/ton from December 12, a rise of 3.19%. The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 21,235 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from December 12, a rise of 0.57% [11][15]. - **Position and Spread**: As of December 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 653,552 lots, down 22,193 lots from December 12, a decline of 3.28%. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, up 8,825 lots from December 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 880 yuan/ton, down 555 yuan/ton from December 12. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 70,995 yuan/ton, down 915 yuan/ton from December 12 [18][21]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 19, 2025, the average alumina price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased by 30 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.08%. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from December 12, a decline of 0.23%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 21,840 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from December 12, a decline of 1.04%. The spot discount was 160 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week. The LME aluminum near - month and 3 - month spread on December 18 was - 44.27 dollars/ton, down 17.59 dollars/ton from December 11 [28][31][30]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of December 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, up 850 tons from December 11, a rise of 0.16%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory on December 19 was 120,510 tons, up 515 tons from last week, a rise of 0.43%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory on December 18 was 510,000 tons, down 21,000 tons from December 11, a decline of 3.95% [34]. - **Raw Materials**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.31%. From January to October, the cumulative import of bauxite was 170.9596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.05%. As of the latest data, the inventory of nine bauxite ports in China was 261.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons. The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong decreased by 150 yuan/ton week - on - week [37][43]. - **Production and Trade**: In November 2025, the alumina output was 8.138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. From January to November, the cumulative alumina output was 84.657 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. In October 2025, the alumina import was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2927.91%; the export was 180,000 tons. In November 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.792 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From January to November, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 41.165 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 248,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.24%; from January to October, the cumulative import was 2.2047 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.88%. In November 2025, the aluminum product output was 5.931 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. From January to November, the cumulative aluminum product output was 61.511 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In November 2025, the aluminum product import was 240,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14%; the export was 570,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. In November 2025, the regenerated aluminum alloy production capacity was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.96%, and the output was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.12%. In November 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.739 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%. From January to November, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 17.456 million tons. In October 2025, the aluminum alloy import was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.77%; the export was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.65%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum alloy import was 841,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.24%; the export was 228,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.81% [46][53][57][60][63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In November 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2024, the new housing start - up area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. From January to November 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the output was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the future oscillatory movement of aluminum prices and the possible convergence of volatility, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Ningxia Weier Precision Engineering Co., Ltd. has signed a guidance agreement with Kaiyuan Securities for the public issuance of shares to unspecified qualified investors and listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - The company submitted the filing materials for the public issuance of shares to the Ningxia Regulatory Bureau of the China Securities Regulatory Commission on November 28 [1] - Weier Precision was listed on the New Third Board in July 2025 and is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a key "little giant" enterprise [1] Group 2 - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of key components required for high-end equipment manufacturing, with products categorized into cast steel, cast aluminum, and cast iron based on raw material types [1] - Cast steel products are primarily used in mining machinery and solar thermal power generation, while cast aluminum is used in rail transit and ultra-high voltage power transmission [1] - Cast iron products are mainly utilized in the automotive parts sector [1]