国际铜夜盘收涨0.31%，沪铜收涨0.45%，沪铝收涨0.11%，沪锌收跌0.53%，沪铅收跌0.12%，沪镍收跌 0.51%，沪锡收涨5.65%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.40%，铝合金收涨0.31%。不锈钢夜盘收涨0.28%。 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏弱，国内精炼铜现货进口窗口关闭。宏观方面，昨晚美联储理事米 | | | | | | | | | | 兰重申尽管劳动力市场有所改善，但 2026 年仍需降息 100 个基点，并倾向于尽早行动。 | | | | | | | | | | 昨晚尽管英伟达报告超预期，但市场对 ai 担忧不减，拖累纳指下行，进一步影响市场情 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 绪。库存方面，LME 铜库存增加 3950 吨至 259600 吨；Comex 铜库存增加 9.98 吨至 | | | | | | | | | | | 545267 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 1413 吨至 289219 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 14218 吨。需求方 | | 铜 | | 面，关注节后开工情况。Ai 担忧下美股动荡拖累市场情绪，短期仍不排除宏观情绪退潮 | | ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月26日 (原油) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，宏观驱动且铝价处于高位，铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现将持续弱 于往年。 (氧化铝) 夜盘时段，油价维持区间窄幅波动。EIA最新数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加1600万桶，创下 2023年2月以来最大单周增幅；库存总量升至4.358亿桶，为八个月以来的最高水平。前一日API数 据公布后我们曾提示美国原油库存超预期大幅增加对油价的利空影响总体有限。美伊第三轮谈判将 在26日于日内瓦举行，伊朗方面表示决心在最短时间内达成一项公平合理的协议。美国方面则持续 保持军事威慑，但当前冲突整体仍处于可控范围。总体来看，近期美伊地缘局势的演变仍是主导油 价波动的核心变量。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强运行。美国贸易代表称正研究推进提升全球关税。地缘方面美伊新一轮谈判在即, 双方释放缓和信号但也保留军事行动选项。短期地缘和关税均处于关键节点，责金属等待进一步驱 动。 【铜】 隔夜铜价短线倾向震荡稳固在密集均线上方。贵金属与有色板块对美国关税不确定性的反映并不一 致，有色需求端主要关注关税相对低执行期，对国 ...

锂矿概念股爆发，个股掀起涨停潮，此前津巴布韦矿业及矿产发展部发布紧急声明，宣布即刻起暂停所有原矿和锂精矿的出口。 2月26日，A股震荡下跌，三大股指早盘集体走低，创业板跌近1%，盐湖提锂、锂矿概念股爆发，半导体、光伏等板块调整。港股震荡回落，恒 科指跌近1%，科网股多数下跌。 债市方面，国债期货集体下跌。商品方面，国内商品期货多数上涨，碳酸锂继续大涨，现涨超5%。汇市方面，离岸人民币升破6.84关口，最高触 及6.8384。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4137.80 | -9.43 | -0.23% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14424.91 | -50.96 | -0.35% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3316.56 | -38.26 | -1.14% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4718.69 | -17.20 | -0.36% | | 000016 | FJE20 | | 3036 ...

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年2月26日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂涨超11%，沪锡涨超5%，沪银涨超 2%，铝合金、液化石油气（LPG）、燃料油、沪铝涨超1%。跌幅方面，合成橡胶跌超2%，PX、PTA跌 超1%，聚氯乙烯（PVC）、乙二醇（EG）、烧碱跌近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 类机 | 卖价 | 法相关于 | 英语 | 英国 | 成交量 | 法联 | 持合量 | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 联赛季2605 M | 187000 | 4510 | 186000 | 187000 | 11.42% | 180 | 6 | | 4510 19160 | 377197 | 160 | | 2 | 护锅2603 M | 423950 | 63 | 423950 | 423980 | 5.76% | ਸ | 5 | 87109 23090 | | 177 ...

每经AI快讯，国际铜夜盘收涨0.46%，沪铜收涨0.58%，沪铝收涨1.18%，沪锌收涨0.14%，沪铅收涨 0.27%，沪镍收涨0.11%，沪锡收涨5.52%。氧化铝夜盘收涨0.77%，铝合金收涨1.71%。不锈钢夜盘收涨 0.84%。 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：再战前高 2 月 25 日，权益市场放量上涨。万得全 A上涨 1.05%，全天成交额 2.48 万亿元，较昨日（2 月 24 日）放量 2627 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.66%，恒生科技下跌 0.19%。南向资金净流出 40.57 亿港元，其中腾讯控 股和美团分别净流入 8.18 亿港元和 6.78 亿港元，而中远海能则净流出 3.58 亿港元。 指数面临前高的考验。万得全 A 放量上涨，触及 1 月 14 日和 1 月 26 日前高，且这两天的成交额分别为 4 万 亿元和 3.28 万亿元，意味着有较多的筹码在此时进场，随着行情回落遭遇亏损。今日早盘大涨后，这些筹码成功 扭亏，部分资金或选择兑现，形成午后指数回落的局面。往后看，若强势突破前高，则确认反弹趋势；若行情回 落，意味着市场短期内或仍将震荡。 资源品&PCB 及其上游，仍是主要线索。资源品方面，工业有色继续受益于涨价逻辑， Wind 稀土和铜产业指 数分别上涨 8.45%和 3.67%。同时，磷化工指数上涨 6 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，国际铜夜盘收涨0.32%，沪铜收涨0.25%，沪铝收跌0.61%，沪锌收跌0.67%，沪铅收涨 0.12%，沪镍收涨1.65%，沪锡收涨2.02%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.39%，铝合金收跌0.43%。不锈钢夜盘收涨 1.03%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 13 - On February 13, the last trading day before the long - holiday, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.28% to 14100.19 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.57% to 3275.96 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1999.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on February 23, closing at 4660.41, a decrease of 59.17 from the previous period [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - On February 13, the weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1687.6, a rise of 17.3 from the previous period. The weighted index of coking coal had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1134.7 yuan, a decrease of 2.0 from the previous period [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight decline. Coke inventory has a small increase, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream molten iron is at a low - season level, and steel profit is average. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has a small increase. The spot auction transaction is inversely proportional to the price fluctuations of the futures. Under the influence of volatile futures prices, the transaction price mainly shows a small decline, and the terminal inventory has a large increase. The total inventory of coking coal has a large increase, and the production - end inventory has a slight increase. The winter - storage demand is coming to an end [4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price has been oscillating upward recently. Excessive rainfall in major sugar - producing states in India may lead to a decline in sugarcane production, which may limit India's sugar exports. During the long - holiday, the US sugar price oscillated upward. Brazil's geographical and statistical institute expects the sugarcane planting area in 2026 to be 9.495363 million hectares, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.7% decrease from the previous year. The sugarcane output is estimated to be 706.96119 million tons, the same as last month's forecast and a 0.6% increase from the previous year. Five trading houses estimate that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 market year (ending in September) will be between 28.5 - 29 million tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - During the long - holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil price oscillated upward. ANRPC indicates that with the accelerated growth of the automobile industry in emerging and developed economies, the global natural rubber market is expected to be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production increased by 1.4% in 2025 and is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026. During the long - holiday, the Japanese rubber price oscillated upward [5]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - During the Spring Festival, the main contract of CBOT soybeans showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation. Multiple positive factors such as China's commitment to purchase more US soybeans, dry weather in some parts of Argentina, a record - high soybean crushing volume in the US in January, and the EPA's plan to submit a biodiesel blending quota proposal for 2026 have boosted the US soybean price. Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and a bumper harvest is certain, with export expectations at a historical high. The USDA Outlook Forum expects the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season to increase to 85 million acres, indicating a long - term loose supply. In the domestic market, oil mills are gradually resuming work after the festival, the operating rate is rising, port soybean inventory is abundant, and soybean supply is loose. The soybean arrival volume from February to March will increase compared with the previous period, and the subsequent crushing volume will gradually rise, resulting in a generally loose supply of soybean meal. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America and the soybean arrival volume [5]. 2.5 Live Pigs - After the festival, large - sized pigs are being concentratedly sold in the market, and the back - logged pig sources are continuously released, resulting in a generally loose supply. As of the end of January, the inventory of fertile sows in the country reached 39.58 million, slightly decreasing month - on - month but still at a relatively high level year - on - year, which supports sufficient supply. The improvement in breeding efficiency further amplifies the effective supply. After the festival, pork consumption has officially entered the off - season. The previous pickling and stocking are all over, and the household holiday stock has not been digested yet. The fresh - meat market's digestion capacity has declined, and it has entered the annual off - season. The demand side has weak support for the market. It is recommended to focus on the reduction progress of fertile sows and the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5]. 2.6 Palm Oil - During the long - holiday, the outer - market Malaysian palm oil maintained a range - bound oscillation, rising 2.88% compared with the pre - festival closing price. According to SPPOMA data, from February 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 23.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. According to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 20 was 863,358 tons, a decrease of 8.9% compared with the same period last month [5]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - During the 2026 Spring Festival, the Shanghai copper market was closed from February 14 to February 23. On February 13, the main contract closed at 100,380 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 100,780 yuan/ton, in the range of 99,400 - 102,350 yuan/ton, with a position of 140,000 and a trading volume of 140,000. The outer - market LME copper showed a V - shaped oscillation, first falling and then rising, in the range of 12,500 - 13,100 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of the holiday, the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the price; at the end of the holiday, the expectation of Asian resumption of work and the tight supply supported the price to rebound, with a slight increase compared with the pre - festival price. The domestic main contract had no trading and no position change during the holiday, and the price was anchored to the outer - market and the expectation of resumption of work. The global copper mine is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee is at a low level, which provides bottom support. The inventory accumulation during the domestic holiday is limited. Before the holiday, there was profit - taking at a high level, and the low liquidity during the holiday amplified the outer - market fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream resumption - of - work rhythm, LME/bonded inventory, and the Fed's policy signals [5]. 2.8 Cotton - Before the festival, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,740 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Internationally, the US cotton price rose, and the weekly line closed in the positive [6]. 2.9 Iron Ore - Before the festival, affected by the low profit rate of steel mills and weak demand, the growth rate of molten iron was slow. After the festival, the resumption of work of steel mills may drive the replenishment demand for raw materials, and the iron ore supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [6]. 2.10 Asphalt - Currently, the asphalt supply is seasonally shrinking, refineries are operating at a low load, and the terminal demand is weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term asphalt price is oscillating [6]. 2.11 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 787 on Friday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 791.5, and closed at 779.5, with a daily increase in positions of 242 lots. On February 13, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Although the outer - market price has increased, the domestic spot market was stable before the festival, and the situation needs to be verified after the festival. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - market sentiment on the price [6]. 2.12 Steel - After the festival, the demand will gradually recover and is unlikely to explode suddenly. With the convening of important meetings, the positive macro - policy expectations are released, and the market sentiment is warming up. Coupled with the rigid - demand replenishment of terminal enterprises after resuming work, the main task of the market before the Two Sessions is to digest the social inventory. Mid - to - late March is the real demand verification period and the key point of the market [6]. 2.13 Alumina - The market was relatively stable during the Spring Festival. Before the festival, the alumina operating rate decreased slightly, and the supply improved marginally. After the festival, attention should be paid to the production - start and production - reduction efforts. However, limited by the limited demand increase and the unopened export window, the overall inventory is still accumulating, and the industry supply - demand situation is still in excess. If the supply side fails to continue to shrink, alumina will still be in a weak situation [6]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - In 2026, the supply - side changes of global electrolytic aluminum are significantly disturbed. The planned new production capacity in Indonesia, India and other places exceeds 2 million tons, but the production - start process is slow due to disturbances in power costs, infrastructure, etc. The domestic production capacity utilization rate is close to saturation, and the room for further production increase is limited. In the short term, the supply - demand situation will remain in a tight - balance state, which may continue to support the aluminum price. The demand side is expected to be stable and improving. Aluminum has strong financial and macro - attributes, and the pressure effect of the off - peak and peak seasons on the fundamentals is weakened. The aluminum price will generally remain at a high level, with a wider fluctuation range, and the seasonality and regularity may be weakened [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].