Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that precious metals are gaining traction amid recession expectations, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.4% and 3.4% respectively, while industrial metals show mixed performance [1][3] - The energy and chemical sectors are experiencing a downturn, with crude oil and fuel prices dropping by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, and chemical products like PVC and methanol seeing declines of 4.5% to 5.4% [1] - A significant capital outflow of 14.3 billion yuan from commodity indices has been noted, with the precious metals sector attracting over 2.7 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the oil market, driven by geopolitical tensions and mixed signals regarding military actions in the Gulf region, which contribute to fluctuating prices [2] - The market is transitioning from a narrative of high oil prices driving inflation to one where high oil prices may suppress demand and lead to economic slowdown, with upcoming employment data expected to validate this shift [3] - The report notes that the volatility of gold remains high, with a historical volatility rate of 42.7, suggesting that investors should exercise patience in positioning within the precious metals market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation and oil price shocks will continue to disrupt global risk appetite. A - share market is difficult to completely shake off external emotional suppression in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor the evolution of the Middle - East situation, international oil price trends, and the further transmission of external market fluctuations to A - share sentiment [8][15] - The inter - bank liquidity in the bond market is still relatively abundant. The central bank's open - market operations continue to send signals of care. Treasury bond futures are generally strong, with the long - end performing better, and the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern [11][15] - The core logic of the commodity market is the parallel evolution of geopolitical risk premium and domestic fundamental repair. Precious metals are strong due to the Middle - East situation and macro - expectation repricing, while industrial metals such as tin benefit from the marginal recovery of manufacturing prosperity. The commodity market may still have a structural market in the short term [9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - A - share market indices were under pressure, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13478.06 points, down 1.81%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3184.95 points, down 2.70%; the STAR 50 Index closed at 1256.33 points, down 2.59%. The total A - share trading volume was about 2.01 trillion yuan, up 4.1% from the previous trading day [7] - The market showed a pattern of more falling stocks than rising stocks, with 1008 rising stocks and 4372 falling stocks. The growth technology direction adjusted significantly, while sectors such as home appliances, banks, and food and beverages were relatively resistant to decline [6][7] Bond Market - The treasury bond futures market showed a pattern of strong long - end and stable short - end. The 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2606 rose 0.15%, closing at 111.69 yuan, with a trading volume of 852.75 billion yuan; the 10 - year treasury bond futures T2606 rose 0.04%, closing at 108.40 yuan, with a trading volume of 881.23 billion yuan; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures were flat compared with the previous day [11] - The central bank carried out 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 150 billion yuan. Except for the 7 - day Shibor, other term Shibor rates declined, indicating that the liquidity was further relaxed [11] Commodity Market - The commodity index declined, but non - ferrous metals performed strongly. The Nanhua Commodity Index closed at 3074.6 points, down 0.91%. Leading gainers included Shanghai silver, soybean No.1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, and double - gum paper, while leading losers included PVC, LPG, coking coal, container shipping index (European line), and lithium carbonate [9] Trading Hotspot Tracking Recent Hot - Product Review - Artificial intelligence: Global industrialization is accelerating, and new applications are emerging. Key points to follow include changes in capital expenditure of leading enterprises, transformation of application scenarios, and product technology upgrades [14] - Commercial space: With the establishment of commercial space companies and strong support for development, key points to follow include domestic recoverable rocket launches and technological breakthroughs of overseas leaders such as SPACEX [14] - Nuclear fusion: Industrialization is accelerating, and artificial intelligence drives the increase in power demand. Key points to follow include project progress and industry bidding [14] - Big consumption: Policy promotes consumption upgrading. Key points to follow include economic recovery and further stimulus policies [14] - Securities firms: A - share trading volume is running at a high level. Key points to follow include A - share trading volume and possible changes in trading systems [14] - Precious metals: Central banks continue to increase holdings, and the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates. Key points to follow include further interest - rate cut expectations of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [14] - Energy and chemicals: The Middle - East geopolitical situation affects supply. Key points to follow include the progress of the conflict and changes in crude oil prices [14] - Shanghai silver strengthened significantly. Due to the uncertainty in the Middle - East and the game of macro - expectations, precious metals recovered. Shanghai tin strengthened oscillatingly, supported by the recovery of manufacturing prosperity [14] Recent Core Idea Summary - In the equity market, focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation, oil prices, and external market fluctuations on A - share sentiment [15] - In the bond market, the short - term bond market may maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with the long - end of treasury bonds performing better [15] - In the commodity market, it may show a structural market in the short term. Pay attention to the evolution of the Middle - East situation, oil price trends, and the sustainability of domestic demand recovery [15]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on March 30, 2026 - A-Share market: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24% to 3923.29, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25% to 13726.19, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.68% to 3273.36. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1927.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Index futures: The CSI 300 Index fluctuated within a range, closing at 4491.95, a decrease of 10.62 from the previous day [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1788.5, an increase of 4.9 from the previous day. In March, geopolitical factors led to rising raw material prices, and coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which has not been implemented yet. From January to February 2026, the cumulative national coke production was 82.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [2][4]. - Coking coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated and consolidated, closing at 1271.5 yuan, an increase of 0.2 from the previous day. The coking coal production decreased year - on - year, but geopolitical issues affected energy prices. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 19.8269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.05% [3][4]. 2.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2609 contract fluctuated widely, rising in the morning due to factors such as rising crude oil prices and higher spot quotes, and then falling due to the decline in crude oil prices. At night, it was pressured by short - sellers and continued to decline. In the first half of March, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 88.6% year - on - year to 6000 tons [4]. 2.3 Rubber - Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. At night, it continued its recent oscillating trend, waiting for the situation in the Middle East to become clear. India's natural rubber demand is expected to grow by about 3.6% this year [6]. 2.4 Soybean Meal - International market: On March 30, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1158.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.06%. The U.S. soybean export inspection was lower than expected. As of March 26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 75%, lower than 82% in the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is about 180 million tons. - Domestic market: On March 30, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2937 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. With the relaxation of weed quarantine standards for Brazilian soybean shipments, the customs clearance speed of soybean cargo ships will be accelerated. From April to May, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will become more abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to stop decreasing and start to rise [6]. 2.5 Live Pigs - On March 30, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10005 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The monthly - end slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises slowed down slightly, and small - scale pig farms were more reluctant to sell. However, due to the high inventory of sows and improved production efficiency, the supply of market - ready pigs continued to increase, while the demand was insufficient, resulting in a situation of oversupply [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - On March 30, affected by the news that Indonesia plans to restart its biodiesel program this year, the palm oil futures rose strongly in the afternoon. The main contract P2605 closed at 9930, an increase of 1.66% from the previous trading day. Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy this year [6]. 2.7 Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, holding above the key level of 95,000 yuan. The CU2605 contract opened at 95080 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 96000 yuan and a minimum of 94750 yuan, closing at 95760 yuan. The trading volume was 1 million lots. The spot market was stable, and the inventory continued to decline. The fundamental supply was tight, and the downstream demand was recovering steadily [6][7]. 2.8 Cotton - On the night of March 30, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15405 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 1 lot compared with the previous trading day, and new cotton sowing has begun. Downstream textile enterprises purchase on demand [7]. 2.9 Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825.5, with a minimum of 816, a maximum of 830, and closed at 826, with an increase of 24 lots in positions. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. As of March 27, the domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.69% [7]. 2.10 Iron Ore - On March 30, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%, at 813 yuan. The iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month, the port inventory decreased, and the steel mills continued to resume production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [7]. 2.11 Asphalt - On March 30, the main contract of asphalt 2606 fluctuated and closed up 0.02%, at 4513 yuan. The refining and production plan of local refineries in April decreased to a low level in recent years, the refinery operating rate was low, the terminal road construction demand was weak, and the refinery shipments continued to decline. In the short term, the asphalt price may follow the oil price [7]. 2.12 Steel - On March 30, rb2605 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3308 yuan/ton. The military actions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran have lasted for a month, and the situation in the Middle East is still complex. Due to concerns about the further escalation of the situation in the Middle East, the international oil price oscillated at a high level on Monday. The attack on Iranian core steel mills affected the steel supply in the Middle East. The domestic steel market is affected by "cost support + export obstacles", and the steel consumption is recovering slowly. In the short term, the steel market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the increase in steel prices may be limited [7]. 2.13 Alumina - On March 30, ao2605 closed at 2941 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price has been rising strongly after reaching the bottom. This round of price increase is driven by multiple factors, but the market also faces the core suppression of long - term oversupply, showing a pattern of "strong short - term reality and weak long - term expectation" [7]. 2.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On March 30, al2605 closed at 24725 yuan/ton. The supply side of the fundamentals is operating stably, the aluminum - to - water ratio has increased slightly, the platform inventory is still high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate, and the aluminum rods are showing signs of inventory reduction. The demand side shows a contraction in receiving goods, and the downstream and terminal are still waiting and seeing [7][8].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a consolidation trend with a trading volume rising to 1.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the previous trading day [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3923.29 points, up 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.68% respectively, indicating a mixed performance among the major indices [7] - The market displayed resilience despite external pressures from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a notable internal digestion of funds [8] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, military industry, and textiles, with respective increases of 1.79%, 1.47%, and 1.41%, indicating a shift of funds towards resource and manufacturing sectors [6] - Conversely, the electricity utilities and new energy sectors experienced declines, with drops of 2.25% and 1.54%, suggesting a phase of adjustment for previously defensive sectors [8] Bond Market - The bond market saw a general rise in government bond futures, with the 30-year bond futures increasing by 0.38% and the 10-year bond futures up by 0.15%, reflecting a positive sentiment in the bond market supported by ample liquidity [12] - The People's Bank of China continued to provide liquidity support through open market operations, resulting in a net injection of 2615 billion yuan [12] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.97%, with the shipping index (European line) showing a strong correlation with energy and chemical products [10] - Key commodities such as lithium carbonate and pure benzene saw significant increases, while some agricultural products faced declines, indicating a mixed performance across different commodity categories [10] Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion, driven by policy support and technological advancements [15] - The shipping index's significant rise of 6.32% reflects the market's recalibration of risks associated with geopolitical tensions affecting global shipping supply chains [15] Strategic Insights - The report suggests that while geopolitical tensions and oil price shocks may continue to suppress global risk appetite, the A-share market has shown a degree of independence, focusing on internal structural opportunities [16] - The bond market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern due to continued liquidity support, while the commodity market is likely to revolve around geopolitical risk premiums and supply contraction expectations [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Alumina: The fundamentals may be in a state of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Electrolytic aluminum: The fundamentals may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: The fundamentals may be in a stage of a slight increase in supply and a recovery in demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 24,725 yuan/ton, up 790 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the main contract position is 263,928 lots, up 6,833 lots [2] - The closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,941 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 41 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract position is 202,711 lots, down 6,100 lots [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 148,050 tons, down 2,200 tons; LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 3,284.5 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 420,875 tons, down 2,200 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 39,554 lots, up 3,658 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.53, up 0.17 [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 23,630 yuan/ton, up 670 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the main contract position is 8,987 lots, down 1,664 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 35,207 tons, down 1,477 tons; the inventory of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 454,571 tons, up 2,527 tons [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 412,452 tons, up 4,255 tons [2] Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,700 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 24,530 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,070 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 195 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 61.23 US dollars/ton, up 2.33 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina is - 171 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode in the northwest region is 5,770 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina output is 801.08 tons, down 12.72 tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 82.10%, down 0.39%; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 83.00%, down 1.00% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, up 25.33 tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.90 tons, up 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste is 19,150 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste is 18,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan [2] - China's import volume of aluminum waste and scrap is 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the export volume is 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 15.00 tons, down 4.00 tons; the import volume is 18.10 tons, down 7.94 tons [2] - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 21.82 tons, up 1.33 tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 129.40 tons, down 0.70 tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the export volume is 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons [2] - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,540.20 tons, unchanged; the start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum is 98.93%, up 0.04% [2] - The output of aluminum products is 613.56 tons, up 20.46 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 43.00 tons, down 11.00 tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 tons, down 39.41 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 1.33 tons, down 1.09 tons [2] Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy is 182.50 tons, unchanged; the automobile output is 341.15 tons, down 10.75 tons [2] Industry News - US President Trump claims to control the Strait of Hormuz, and the US vice - president says the US will withdraw after handling current affairs [2] - In 2025, global auto sales were 96.89 million units, a 6% year - on - year increase. In February 2026, global auto sales were 6.74 million units, a 2% year - on - year decrease. From January to February 2026, global auto sales were 13.96 million units, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. China's auto market share declined in 2026 [2] - The China Consumer Product Quality and Safety Promotion Association launched the "Online Product Quality and Safety Improvement Series Campaign 2026" [2] - The European Federation for Transport and Environment reports that the global shipping industry's fuel costs have soared due to the US - Israel - Iran conflict [2] - The largest metal production facility of Emirates Global Aluminium was "severely damaged" in the Iranian missile and drone attacks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No explicit industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term conflict risk in the Middle East has not dissipated, and there is a possibility of situation downgrade in the medium - term. The market has lost trust in the extreme - pressure script, and the global asset volatility is increasing. The reversal of global liquidity expectations is the reason behind the invalidation of geopolitical credit. [2] - In the domestic market, Chinese assets have the attributes of a global safe - haven, but the A - share market is still in the stage of releasing external risk transmission and is difficult to remain unscathed. The current core investment strategy should be defensive counter - attack. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Trump postponed the attack on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6. The US and Iran are in a state of both negotiation and conflict. The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027, while the US economic growth rate will slow down. [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The cease - fire negotiation between the US and Iran is deadlocked. The international oil price has risen again, and the US dollar index has received safe - haven support. The RMB exchange rate is under pressure. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.85 mark. [3] - **Stock Index**: The stock index fell collectively due to the repeated situation in the Middle East. The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile, and the large - cap stock index shows relative advantages. [4][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to maintain a grid operation idea, buy more positions in batches when there are sharp drops, and sell high in a timely manner. [5][6] - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The short - term is expected to maintain a differentiated and volatile trend. [7][8] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the overall callback of the non - ferrous metal sector, it shows a wide - range shock. It has strong anti - decline attributes, and it is recommended to seize the low - level replenishment opportunity. [10][11] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon market maintains a wide - range shock, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance. The polysilicon market has prominent supply - demand imbalance, and the futures price has declined significantly. [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The macro - expectation suppresses the fundamentals, and the prices of domestic and foreign aluminum are weak. [15][17][18] - **Copper**: Affected by geopolitics, the copper price is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93000 - 96500 yuan/ton. [18][21] - **Zinc**: The price is mainly volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement of non - ferrous metals are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [22] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The intraday trend is volatile. The new tax policy in Indonesia may affect the supply, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm. [23][24] - **Tin**: The short - term is regarded as volatile, and the key drivers for the upward movement are the Iranian situation and liquidity. [26] - **Lead**: The price is in a narrow - range shock, and it is expected to be strongly volatile. [26][27] Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The funds are gradually changing months. The large - supply logic remains unchanged in the medium - term, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired. It is recommended to hold the reverse spread between months. [28] - **Oils**: The market is in a volatile stage, waiting for the US biofuel policy. [29] Energy and Oil and Gas - **SC**: The oil price fluctuates upward, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. [31][32] - **Fuel Oil**: Wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The market structure and profit are回调, but there is still support in the short - term. [32][33] - **Asphalt**: The cracking may be strong, and wait for the opportunity to short at the absolute price. The short - term is affected by geopolitical disturbances. [34] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the long - term, and pay attention to position control in the short - term. [36][37] - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a secondary adjustment. It is recommended to be strategically bullish in the long - term, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in the short - term. [38][39] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The inventory of pulp has increased significantly, which has a negative impact on the futures price. The offset paper futures can try a short - selling strategy. [41][42][43] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market fluctuates. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. [44][45] - **LPG**: The supply is shrinking, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the bullish spread strategy after the callback. [46][47] - **PP Propylene**: The situation is unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [48][50] - **Plastic**: It is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [51][52] - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong and wide - range shock, and the natural rubber is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to adopt different strategies for different varieties. [53][54][56] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply pressure is continuous, and the glass is restricted by supply and demand. Both are expected to be weakly volatile. [57][58] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term is affected by the rising cost of furnace materials, and the rebound height is limited. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mixture of long and short factors, showing a pattern of "strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term". [61][62] - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuates widely with the energy supply expectation, and further rise depends on the energy logic driven by crude oil. [63][64] - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: There is cost support at the bottom, and the short - term may have a callback. [64] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The futures price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract or be bearish on the far - month contracts. [66][67][68] - **Cotton**: The external market is strong. The short - term is affected by the macro - risk and supply increase, but there is support at the bottom. [68][69] - **Sugar**: The short - term may maintain a volatile pattern. [70][71] - **Eggs**: The price is slightly rising. It is recommended to sell call options on the main contract. [72][73] - **Apples**: The futures price is strongly volatile, and the 05 contract is supported by the shortage of delivery products. [78][79] - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to sell for hedging at high prices. [80][81] - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure and may be in a low - level shock. [82] - **Logs**: The spot price is rising, and it is recommended to conduct range trading and light - position long - buying. [83][84]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the provided content [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation which lacks clear meaning [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★★★, indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The research focuses on the market conditions and trends of various non - ferrous metals, analyzing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and geopolitical events, and providing corresponding price trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper decreased in volume and closed with a negative candle, and overnight copper prices rebounded with Trump's unilateral release of US - Iran negotiation news. This week, key indicators are limited, and attention should be paid to whether a preliminary passage agreement can be reached after the one - month stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in copper prices attracted mid - and downstream buyers, and some refined copper rod enterprises actively replenished stocks. In the short - and medium - term critical period of the war game, if an effective directional agreement is temporarily reached, the short - term market fluctuations may be similar to the impact of reciprocal tariffs last year. Technically, the strong support for copper prices is first at 91,000, and attention should also be paid to the MA40 weekly moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 140 yuan, 170 yuan, and 170 yuan respectively. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased slightly compared with last Thursday. As the aluminum price fell, the inventory and spot market feedback improved. Attention should be paid to whether this can be sustained. High energy prices suppress the economic outlook and interest rate path, and market sentiment fluctuates with war news. Shanghai aluminum should pay attention to the key support at 23,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 1,000 yuan under the swinging macro - sentiment. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. However, two alumina plants in Guangxi are about to enter the trial production stage, and imported supplies will also increase, so the surplus prospect remains unchanged. In the short term, alumina oscillates and waits for the guidance of Guinea's mining policy [3] Zinc - Trump announced the postponement of the strike on Iranian power plants and set a 5 - day negotiation period. The market saw a "TACO" again, and zinc prices rebounded following the non - ferrous metal sector. However, there are still concerns about the marginal tightening of liquidity. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 30%. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots exceeded 250,000 tons, and Shanghai zinc is in an overall surplus and pressured state. Overseas mines are tight and energy prices are high, so the production increase space of zinc ingots is limited, and the supply - side pressure is mainly in the domestic market. Without a significant rebound in TC, the smelting cost line of domestic smelters will still provide strong support for the disk. Demand is gradually showing peak - season characteristics, and Shanghai zinc is expected to gradually enter a range consolidation, with the price range temporarily at 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - Overseas aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and domestic aluminum ingots are still in the stage of price - cut destocking. The surplus dominates the weak operation of lead prices. Against the background of high by - product prices, the comprehensive cost of primary aluminum smelters is low, and the center of the disk is under pressure. The profit of recycled aluminum is not good, and some smelters still reduce production or postpone resuming production. Shanghai aluminum has strong support at the 16,200 yuan/ton line. However, the import profit is good, overseas low - cost crude aluminum is supplemented to the domestic market, and the price of waste batteries is hard to rise significantly. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated, market trading declined, and positions slowly recovered. The strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season is lower than expected, and downstream only replenishes stocks for rigid needs, with light trading. Due to macro uncertainties, the futures oscillate weakly and are difficult to drive the spot market. Although the social inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level and the destocking is slow; steel mills maintain high production schedules, and the supply pressure is large. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan, the discount of imported nickel is 150 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron per unit has dropped nearly 10 yuan, closing at 1,086.5 yuan per unit. The rebound of upstream prices continues to push up the mid - stream prices and form cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. Nickel and stainless steel have high inventories, and attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, with an overall tendency to weak oscillation [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in volume and oscillated during the session. The short - term trading rhythm is guided by the stock market, and the core of the market is still the Middle East war situation. On the supply side, China's imports of tin concentrates in the first two months have improved significantly year - on - year, and the production of tin concentrates in major producing countries has been continuously stable. The mainstream quotes of domestic tin concentrates from third - party sources have gradually recovered. On this basis, it is generally expected that the domestic refined tin production will return to normal levels in March. On the consumption side, as the tin price falls, it boosts the domestic replenishment willingness, and the Middle East war situation has a certain impact on the normal production of the low - and medium - end integrated circuit industry chain in Southeast Asia. The tin market may be strong domestically and weak overseas, and in terms of trend, the price may still seek support at the 300,000 integer mark and the medium - and long - term weekly K - line moving average. Mid - and downstream enterprises should make rigid purchases at the right time, and the 2605 option can appropriately focus on the direction of selling out - of - the - money put options [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates strongly, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 100 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 300 tons to 16,600 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 500 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 36,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to downstream. From the perspective of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level at the beginning of March. The weekly production has continuously reached new highs, waiting for the inflection point of inventory. The latest quote of Australian ore is 2,045 US dollars, and the ore - end quote has loosened. Technically, the lithium market is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the upward momentum has weakened; the spot silicon price in East China remained stable compared with yesterday. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate in Xinjiang has remained stable, and leading enterprises have no new production plans; there is also no large - scale resumption of production willingness in Yunnan and Sichuan production areas, and the overall supply side is relatively stable. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon is flat, the price has dropped significantly, the industry is in the loss range, and with the expectation of the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy in April, the export orders of organic silicon may weaken periodically, and the overall downstream demand is weak. In general, the current industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory continues to run at a high level, maintaining fluctuations around 550,000 tons. It is expected that the silicon price will continue to oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to run weakly, closing at 35,730 yuan/ton. On the demand side, affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate, coupled with the limited large - scale start of domestic demand, the component production schedule in April is expected to be lowered, and the component inventory in March has increased significantly compared with last month, providing weak support for upstream raw materials. In the spot market, the polysilicon quote continued to be lowered. The SMM's N - type dense material quote is 40,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. Recently, the sales volume of spot enterprises has increased, driving the inventory to decline marginally. The futures price has approached 35,000 yuan/ton, and according to the public cost calculation, it is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises. Although the medium - term trend is still bearish, the short - term downward space is limited [11]

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of Guoxin Guozheng Futures on March 24, 2026, covering multiple futures varieties [1] Index Futures - On March 23, the three major A - share indexes weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.63% to 3813.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.76% to 13345.51 points, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.49% to 3235.22 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.45 trillion yuan, an increase of 145.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 23, closing at 4418.00, a decrease of 149.02 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 23, the weighted index of coke oscillated stronger, closing at 1867.8, a rise of 117.3 compared to the previous day [2] - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 23, closing at 1323.6 yuan, a rise of 122.3 compared to the previous day [3] - Coke: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing willingness of traders slightly improves [4] - Coking coal: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1461 vehicles. The resumption of work in coal mines is good, the weekly production level continues to rise slightly, the spot auction transactions within the week are good, and the transaction price has increased. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the inventory at the production end has decreased slightly [4] - Policy: According to the "15th Five - Year Plan" outline, by 2030, China's comprehensive energy production capacity will reach 5.8 billion tons of standard coal. Coal will play a long - term role in ensuring energy security and economic stability [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. Affected by the rise of US sugar on Friday and the increase in spot quotes in the morning, the futures price oscillated higher, and then oscillated lower due to the sharp decline in the stock market. At night, it oscillated lower due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [5] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of syrup and white sugar premixed powder were 830,000 tons and 592,000 tons respectively, an increase of 75,000 tons and 266,000 tons year - on - year. The total import volume was 1.422 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons or 31% year - on - year [7] Rubber - Due to the large short - term decline, the Shanghai Rubber oscillated and rose slightly on March 23. At night, it oscillated and rose slightly due to the news of the talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan [7] - In January 2026, the US imported 23.48 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased 1.2% year - on - year to 14.03 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the import of truck and bus tires decreased 4.1% year - on - year and 3.4% month - on - month to 4.72 million [7] Soybean Meal - In the international market on March 23, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1164.5 cents per bushel, a rise of 0.34%. As of the week of March 19, the US soybean export inspection was 1,101,730 tons, in line with market expectations. The export inspection volume to China was 664,967 tons, accounting for 60.36% of the total inspection volume. As of last Thursday, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 68%, behind 80% of the same period last year [7] - In the domestic market on March 23, the soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 3007 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.73%. With the relaxation of the inspection of weeds and pests on imported Brazilian soybeans in China, it is expected that many soybeans stranded at ports will complete customs clearance one after another. After the soybean inventory of oil mills is replenished, the soybean meal production will remain high, and the tight supply situation of soybean meal will be alleviated [7] Live Pigs - On March 21, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 9980 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.35%. The slaughter plan of large - scale breeding enterprises in March increased significantly compared to the previous month, the slaughter rhythm accelerated significantly, the market supply was sufficient, and the sales were active. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs was loose. On the demand side, it is in the seasonal off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, providing limited support for pig prices. Although frozen product segmentation warehousing and some secondary fattening have formed a certain bottom - support, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of strong supply and weak demand as a whole [7] Palm Oil - On March 23, benefiting from the rise of crude oil prices over the weekend, the palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange oscillated stronger. The main contract P2605 closed with a large positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9960, the lowest price was 9650, and the closing price was 9942, a rise of 2.31% compared to the previous trading day [8] - As of March 20, 2026 (the 12th week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons or 4.01% compared to the previous week, and an increase of 419,900 tons or 108.14% compared to 388,300 tons of the same period last year [8] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 94,510, reached a high of 94,740, a low of 91,500, and closed at 92,100, with a settlement price of 92,870. The trading volume was 215,827 lots, and the open interest was 204,413 lots. Macro - suppression: The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the strengthening of the US dollar suppress commodities. The fundamentals are weak: High smelting operation rate, increased imports, and rising bonded - area inventory; the demand in the "Golden March" is lower than expected, and the spot premium has narrowed. The spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper is 93,190 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2,700 yuan per ton; the premium to CU2605 is 120 - 160 yuan per ton [8] Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 15,316 yuan per ton at night on March 23. The cotton inventory decreased by 16 lots compared to the previous trading day. Entering the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April", downstream textile enterprises purchase as they use [8] Iron Ore - On March 23, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a rise of 0.92% and a closing price of 819 yuan. The iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, the arrival volume decreased again, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the demand for molten iron from steel mills' resumption of production increased, and the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [8] Asphalt - On March 23, the main contract of asphalt 2606 oscillated and rose, with a rise of 4.27% and a closing price of 4661 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, the inventory increased slightly, the downstream demand has not started, the refinery's shipping volume decreased month - on - month, and it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [8] Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 825 on March 23, with a low of 819, a high of 832, and a closing price of 822, with an increase of 702 lots in open interest. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day [8][9] Steel - On March 23, rb2605 closed at 3154 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3330 yuan per ton. The military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on March 23 entered the 24th day, and the transportation interruption in the Strait of Hormuz continued, and high oil prices will last longer. On the one hand, the energy substitution effect is strengthened, the shipping cost rises, and the prices of black - series raw fuels are pushed up. On the other hand, the global inflation expectation heats up, the liquidity tightens, the risk - aversion sentiment spreads, and the global economic growth is impacted. In the short term, driven by high costs, steel prices may oscillate stronger [9] Alumina - On March 23, ao2605 closed at 3093 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the new production capacity is being put into operation at an accelerated pace. The 1.2 million - ton project of Guangxi Long'an Hetai will be put into trial production in April, and another new production capacity is expected to be put into operation at the end of March. Coupled with the high arrival volume of imported alumina from March to April (about 250,000 tons per month on average), the subsequent supply pressure is becoming increasingly prominent, which will effectively suppress the upward space of prices. On the demand side, the consumption improvement space is limited, and the spot trading atmosphere is average. Although the slight recovery of downstream consumption and the firmness of the spot provide a bottom support for alumina, the commissioning of new projects in many places and the increase in raw material arrivals have established the expectation of loose supply [10] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 23, al2605 closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. On the macro - level, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The US threatens to expand attacks on Iran's power generation facilities, and Iran responds firmly. The inflation risk caused by geopolitics intensifies, further leading to a collapse in demand and a shrinkage in investment. The market sentiment of trading recession remains. The precious metals and non - ferrous metal markets continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of Guinea's bauxite export policy. On the supply side of the fundamentals, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory inflection point. On the demand side, the receiving situation continues to improve. The absolute price has dropped to an ideal range, and downstream and terminal buyers increase their purchases at low prices, which continues to strengthen the support for the spot [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is significantly affected by the Iran-US conflict, leading to increased volatility in various asset prices. Central banks around the world are cautious about monetary policy, and inflation concerns are rising. Different industries are facing different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical risks and market changes [4][8][36] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation expectations, the prices of most commodities will maintain a high - volatility pattern. Some industries may face short - term price corrections, but in the long term, the upward trend of the commodity market may not end [36][42] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Trump's statement on the Iran - US potential agreement and Iran's denial, changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's response to Trump's directive, and the significant increase in WuXi AppTec's net profit in 2025 [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran - US conflict affects global risk appetite, inflation causes the decline of Fed rate - cut expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of the war situation and control risks [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The decline of the main contracts of treasury bonds, the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong, the rise of the US 2 - year treasury bond yield, and the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data at the beginning of the year improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and it is expected that the bond market will be weakly volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The price changes of gold and silver in the domestic and international markets, the Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate, and the different stances of Fed officials on interest rate hikes [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Iran - US war leads to inflation concerns, central banks are cautious about monetary policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields suppresses the valuation of precious metals. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper first declined and then rose due to the Middle East situation, the increase of LME inventory, the decrease of domestic social inventory, and the positive downstream procurement [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the conflict may continue. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [11] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rose due to the improvement of market risk preference, the decrease of inventory, and the increase of downstream procurement [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market risk sentiment has not reversed, and the supply concern has eased. The overseas supply is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price may be weakly volatile in the short term [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The decline of zinc price, the change of inventory, and the active replenishment of downstream enterprises [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation, the zinc price is in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [15] Lead - **Market Information**: The rise of lead price, the change of inventory, and the improvement of smelting enterprise operation [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and there are both support and pressure factors. The volatility of lead price increases, and there is a possibility of further decline [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: The decline of nickel price, the stability of spot premium, and the stability of raw material price [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, nickel price may follow the weak trend, but in the medium term, the supply - demand improvement supports the price. It is recommended to operate in the range [18] Tin - **Market Information**: The decline of tin price, the decrease of inventory, and the improvement of production and demand [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, the demand is weakly repaired, and the tin price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The decline of the spot index of lithium carbonate and the rise of the futures contract price [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the short - term price is supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of position, industry events, and spot premium [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: The rise of alumina index, the change of basis, and the increase of inventory [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but oversupplied in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The decline of stainless steel price, the change of inventory, and the stability of raw material price [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a game situation of weak macro and demand and strong support from the ore end. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The decline of cast aluminum alloy price, the decrease of inventory, and the narrowing of the price difference [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the demand is expected to improve, so the short - term price has certain support [28] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rise of steel price, the change of inventory, and the change of spot price [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, the demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price on cost [31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The rise of iron ore price, the change of inventory, and the change of basis [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, the demand is gradually recovering, and the ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The sharp rise of coking coal and coke prices, the change of spot price, and the change of basis [34] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment, and the black sector may be supported. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively loose, and it is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36][37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The rise of glass and soda ash prices, the change of inventory, and the change of position [38][39] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be widely volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be low - level and widely volatile [38][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of ferrosilicon price, the impact of typhoon on the Australian mining area, and the change of basis [41] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession, and the black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the cost and supply - side factors [42][43] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of industrial silicon price, the decline of polysilicon price, and the change of inventory [44][47] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is slightly increased, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon market is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile way [46][48] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rise of butadiene rubber, the different views of long and short positions on natural rubber, and the change of tire enterprise operation and inventory [50][51][52] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and hold the hedging position [54] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The rise of crude oil and refined oil prices [55] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions on crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [56] Methanol - **Market Information**: The change of methanol spot and futures prices [57] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has included the geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] Urea - **Market Information**: The change of urea spot and futures prices [59] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [60] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The change of pure benzene and styrene prices, the change of basis, and the change of supply and demand [61] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the supply is relatively wide, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [62] PVC - **Market Information**: The rise of PVC price, the change of cost, and the change of supply and demand [63] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply of PVC is at a high level, but there are expectations of production reduction and maintenance. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price may rise in the short term [65] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The rise of ethylene glycol price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [66] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67] PTA - **Market Information**: The rise of PTA price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [68] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69][70] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The rise of p - xylene price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [71] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, the downstream demand is increasing, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The rise of PE price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [73] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The rise of PP price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [75] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of PP is expected to be stable, the supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term price is affected by production mismatch [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The decline of pig price, the weak downstream demand, and the difficulty of farmers' sales [79] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, the demand is limited, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The stability of egg price, the normal supply, and the stable market sales [81] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the long - term price may decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The adjustment of the predicted planting area of US corn and soybeans, the change of US soybean export data, and the change of soybean inventory and crushing rate [83] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of geopolitical risks on protein meal prices [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The policies and production data of Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil, the change of domestic and international palm oil inventory, and the export data of Malaysia [85] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of crude oil price drives the rise of oil and fat prices. In the medium term, the price of oils and fats is expected to rise [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international sugar production and import data, and the prediction of global sugar production [87] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw sugar price is at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price may rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88] Cotton - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international cotton import and export data, the increase of import quota, the change of spinning mill operation and inventory, and the prediction of global cotton production [89] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase of import quota is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton price and positive for US cotton price. In the medium term, the downstream operation is improving, and it is recommended to buy on dips [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro environment is bearish, and Shanghai Aluminum is weak; there is an expectation of a reduction in bauxite supply [1] - Shanghai Aluminum is weak, but downstream purchasing sentiment is good. However, social inventories are high, and discounts are under pressure [15] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - This week, the center of the Shanghai Aluminum futures price has significantly declined [8] - The spread between the April and May contracts of Shanghai Aluminum has slightly increased week-on-week; the LME Aluminum 0 - 3M premium has strengthened this week [11] 02 Fundamental Data - Cost factors are driving up the price of imported ores [18] - Guinea is discussing with mining companies to control the supply of ores [23] - The monthly spread of alumina is under pressure [24] - Domestic alumina inventories are still increasing [27] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic alumina has decreased by 0.5 tons to 1.78 million tons [29] - The import window for alumina has opened [30] - Domestic alumina inventories have increased by 64,000 tons to 5.834 million tons [34] - The room for improvement in the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited [38] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has remained flat at 859,700 tons [39] - Aluminum imports are at a premium [41] - This week, electrolytic aluminum spot inventories are still increasing and are at a high level year-on-year, while aluminum rod spot inventories are decreasing [44] - LME aluminum inventories have decreased week-on-week [47] - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum products has increased week-on-week [51] - During the traditional consumption peak season in March, downstream demand has been released [56] - From January to February in China, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year [57] - Last week, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities increased week-on-week but decreased year-on-year [61] - The production plan for household air conditioners in March is 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [62] - The production plan for refrigerators in March is 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [65] - The production plan for washing machines in March is 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [66] - From March 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 28% year-on-year [69] - This week, the domestic component inventory has slightly increased. The conflict in the Middle East has affected transportation and demand [71]