沪铝减仓进一步回调，铝锭库存持平，铝棒、板带箔稍去库，下游消费尚可，对高价接受度有所提升，短期或呈震荡走 势。海内外产能逐渐通电投产，预计26年初供需偏宽松，随后逐渐转紧。 有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/27 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/11/20 85 2537 115035 54983 -503.28 153.32 33.0 48.0 -18.89 157925 9475 2025/11/21 100 2233 115035 49790 -632.80 546.36 34.0 50.0 1.06 155025 6625 2025/11/24 90 2352 115035 43816 -1067.61 115.73 34.0 50.0 24.88 155750 5525 2025/11/25 90 2625 115035 40965 -787.48 156.46 32.0 48.0 9.52 156575 5625 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 11 月 27 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（11 月 26 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.15%，收报 3864.18 点； 深证成指涨 1.02%，收报 12907.83 点；创业板指涨 2.14%，收报 3044.69 点。沪深两市成交额 17833 亿，较昨日 小幅缩量 288 亿。 沪深 300 指数 11 月 26 日震荡趋强。收盘 4517.63，环比上涨 27.22。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】11 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1662.8，环比下跌 22.4。 11 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 1124.9 元，环比下跌 10.4。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭四轮提涨落地。宏观，11 月 24 日，韩国宣布自公告当日起，对中国产中厚板及合金钢板热轧厚 板加征反倾销关税，实施期限为 5 年。需求端，本期铁水产量 236.28，-0.60 万吨，焦炭总的库存较同期偏高。 利润方面，本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 19 元/吨。 焦煤： ...

每经AI快讯，11月26日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.13%，沪银涨1.08%，沪铜涨 0.59%，沪铝涨0.72%，焦煤涨1.07%，玻璃涨1.46%，橡胶涨0.56%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and today they maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in positions. There is significant selling pressure above 87,000 yuan. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and the weakening US dollar index is favorable for copper prices. There is a divergence in electrolytic copper inventories at home and abroad, with overseas inventories accumulating marginally and domestic inventories decreasing marginally. Technically, focus on the multi - empty game at the 87,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and today they stabilized in a volatile manner. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, and non - ferrous metals have generally stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum's rebound is relatively small, positions are continuously decreasing, and market attention is waning. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 21,500 yuan mark [8]. - **沪镍**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then maintained a high - level volatile trend, and today they were strongly volatile, once reaching the 118,000 yuan mark. The Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising again, leading to a general increase in non - ferrous metals. Last week, nickel prices decreased significantly with increasing positions, and the spot premium continued to strengthen. In the short term, the market has warmed up, and short - covering has pushed up nickel prices. Technically, focus on the pressure at the 120,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to SMM, Codelco's benchmark price for the 2026 CIF long - term contract of electrolytic copper in China is set at $350 per ton, a rise of $261 per ton compared to $89 per ton in 2025 [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 26, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was between 117,300 and 122,400 yuan per ton, with an average price of 119,850 yuan per ton, a rise of 1,300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was between 4,400 and 4,900 yuan per ton, with an average premium of 4,650 yuan per ton, a rise of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was between 0 and 500 yuan per ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 11 月 25 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | --- | --- | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | | [Table_QuotePic] | 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] | 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米淀粉 | 沪铜 | 甲醇 | | 王米 | 锰硅 | 沪铝 | | 直一 | 橡胶 | 沥青 | | 棕櫚油 | 螺纹钢 | 塑料 | | 直掲 | 焦炭 | 聚丙烯 | | 护银 | 热轧卷板 | 焦煤 | | 郑棉 | 玻璃 | PVC | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 沪锌 | | | | | | | | 菜粕 | ...

每经AI快讯，夜盘期货收盘，国际铜夜盘收跌0.05%，沪铜收平，沪铝收涨0.12%，沪锌收跌0.13%，沪 铅收跌0.58%，沪镍收涨0.69%，沪锡收涨0.05%。氧化铝夜盘收涨0.07%，铝合金收跌0.02%。不锈钢夜 盘收涨0.16%。 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周五（11 月 21 日） A 股三大指数集体重挫，截止收盘，沪指跌 2.45%，收报 3834.89 点； 深证成指跌 3.41%，收报 12538.07 点；创业板指跌 4.02%，收报 2920.08 点。沪深两市成交额达到 19657 亿，较 昨日放量 2575 亿。 沪深 300 指数 11 月 21 日维持弱势。收盘 4453.61，环比下跌 111.34。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】11 月 21 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1658.8，环比下跌 17.2。 11 月 21 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 1136.2 元，环比下跌 10.8。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：行业利润不佳，焦企提产动能不足，高频数据显示焦企开工率周环比小幅回落，焦炭供应收缩。需求， 钢厂高炉小幅复产，但终端需求逐步走弱，钢厂提产空间有限。各环节焦炭库存低位，但考虑到下游利润不佳， 现货继续提涨乏力。 焦煤：部分前期因井下因素限产煤矿陆续复产，但主产区个别煤矿仍受到其他因素制 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月22日，国际铜夜盘收涨0.13%，沪铜收涨0.21%，沪铝收跌0.35%，沪锌收跌0.60%， 沪铅收跌0.38%，沪镍收涨0.20%，沪锡收跌0.18%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.07%，铝合金收跌0.27%。不锈钢 夜盘收跌0.49%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals suggest a stable supply and slightly weakened demand due to the off - season. The social inventory remains stable. It is recommended to trade the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is advised to trade the main contract of alumina lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the raw material supply shortage still supports the spot price. It is recommended to trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is favorable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is transitioning to the off - season, and the spot trading sentiment has slightly improved. The overall fundamentals are stable supply and slightly weakened demand [4]. - **Alumina**: The raw material supply will gradually be sufficient, the supply is abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The subsequent production cut situation needs to be observed [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material cost is supported, the supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand may slightly weaken as it transitions from the peak to the off - season [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from November 14; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,806.5 dollars/ton, down 2.45% from November 14. The alumina futures price was 2,706 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from November 14, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 20,595 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from November 14 [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from November 14. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton from November 14, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,320 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from November 14 [11][20]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 612,209 lots, down 21.87% from November 14, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 14,758 lots from November 14 [15]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from November 14, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.18%, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from November 14 [22][23][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1.65% from November 13; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, unchanged from November 13. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 69,283 tons, up 7.01% from November 14, and the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 484,800 tons, down 7.04% from November 13 [31][34]. - **Raw Material Import and Port Inventory**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, down 13.3% month - on - month and up 12.31% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 170.9596 million tons, up 30.05% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 26.35 million tons, down 110,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price weakened, and in September 2025, the import volume of scrap aluminum was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 76.344 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The import volume was 189,300 tons, up 215.64% month - on - month and 2927.91% year - on - year, and the export volume was 180,000 tons, down 28% month - on - month and up 5.88% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month and up 1.54% year - on - year, the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and down 1.01% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 55.243 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 350,000 tons, up 10.4% year - on - year, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, down 12.8% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 15.96% year - on - year, and the production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 from last month and down 1.83% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, up 17.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 15.76 million tons. The import volume was 76,400 tons, down 33.77% year - on - year, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, up 50.65% year - on - year [63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year. From January to October 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,322,000 units, up 8.81% year - on - year, and production was 3,359,000 units, up 12.1% year - on - year [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected volatile movement and converging volatility of the aluminum price, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73].

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals" [1][2] Report Date - The report is dated November 20, 2025 [5] Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell, with little change in open interest. The short - term market has released the hawkish sentiment towards the Fed, but the US dollar index remains strong above 100, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Overseas inventories are rising, pressuring copper prices. Attention should be paid to the US non - farm payrolls data tonight. Technically, focus on the support at the 86,000 level [7] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices also rose first and then fell, with open interest continuously declining. The overseas US dollar index is strong, and the domestic atmosphere is weakening. As aluminum prices fall, downstream transactions are warming up, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased. On the 20th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday. Technically, focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [8] Nickel - Shanghai nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, erasing the overnight gains. The domestic market weakened, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, showing strong downward momentum. As nickel prices fall, the spot premium is gradually strengthening, indicating stronger support at the spot end. Technically, focus on the support at the 115,000 level [9] Industry Dynamics Copper - On November 20, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste reached 196,600 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. The cumulative imports from January to October were 1.8956 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.97% [11] Aluminum - On November 20, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from Monday [11] Nickel - On November 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 116,000 - 120,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,000 - 4,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowinning nickel was 0 - 500 yuan/ton [12] Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper inventory and cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15] Aluminum - There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30][32] Nickel - Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][40][43][47]