电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 8 月 27 日 有色日报 国内宏观氛围冷却 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价呈现增仓下行趋势。宏观层面，今日宏观氛围冷却，权 益市场高位回落，商品也普遍走弱。产业端，据 SMM 报道，临近月末 市场成交情绪进一步减弱。国内宏观氛围走弱，海外美元指数反 弹，铜价承压运行，关注沪铜 7.9 万关口支撑。 沪铝 昨夜沪铝增仓上行明显，日内主力期价在 2.08 万上方窄幅震荡。 宏观层面，今日国内商品氛围冷却，铝价表现偏强。产业层面，据 SMM 报道，铝价持续高位运行 下游采购畏高情绪渐浓。技术上，铝价 在前期高位有技术压力。 沪 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价下跌，布伦特10合约跌2.17%。8月27日起美国因印度购买俄油而对其加征的25%关 税正式实施，据悉印度炼厂10月后对俄油的采购量自上半年的180万桶/天下调至140-160万桶/天。 俄油相关的供应风险依然存在，但布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价该因素的利多影响，在地缘风险 进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡偏强。市场定价9月美联储降息基本板上钉钉,不过后续经济走向仍存不确定性。特 朗普罢免美联储官员令美联储独立性问题回归或继续削弱美元信用，库克的律师已就被解雇一事寻 求司法裁决。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力，维持回调买入多头思路。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜妆涨，沪铜震荡在7.95万编下。美国7月耐用品订单跌幅好于预期，消费者信心指数依然 疲软，市场等待更多数据，同时关注特朗普与美联储理事间的博弈。国内精铜消费受多省梳理再生 铜补贴政策减停而受益,近期社库流出且现货延续升水。沪铜整数关阻力强,高位空单持有。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝上涨。周初铝锭社库较上周四增加2万吨，铝棒增加0.9万吨。下 ...

文字早评 2025/08/27 星期三 消息面： 1、国务院发布深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见，到 2027 年新一代智能终端、智能体等应用普及率 超 70%；强化智能算力统筹；推动智能终端"万物智联"，大力发展智能网联汽车、人工智能手机和电 脑、智能机器人、智能家居、智能穿戴等新一代智能终端； 2、今年 7 月货币基金规模增长超 3800 亿元，股票基金规模增长超 1900 亿元，混合基金规模增长超 1300 亿元，而债券基金规模下降超 460 亿元; 3、寒武纪：2025 年上半年实现营业收入 28.81 亿元，同比增长 4347.82%；实现净利润 10.38 亿元，同 比扭亏； 4、美国 7 月耐用品订单环比下降 2.8%，预期下降 4%，前值下降 9.4%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.08%/-0.25%/-0.54%/-0.97%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.68%/-1.19%/-2.51%/-4.33%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.82%/-1.52%/-2.96%/-5.08%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.03%/0.07%/0.12% ...

步入8月，国内电解铝成本先升后降，电解铝利润维持高位整理。截至8月22日，国内电解铝即时成本为 16718.55元／吨，较8月初减少11.11元／吨，较去年同期减少947.72元／吨。截至8月22日，国内电解铝 即时利润为3991.45元／吨，较8月初增加201.11元／吨，较去年同期增长1967.72元／吨。从后期成本变 动来看，氟化铝及预焙阳极价格短期以持稳为主，预焙阳极成本端的支撑较坚挺；"反内卷"带来的政策 效应边际减弱，8月氧化铝产量增幅将受到新产线调试等因素的制约，而氧化铝长单需求相对稳定，预 计近期氧化铝价格震荡偏强。8月电力成本表现以持稳为主，四川部分地区电费因高温影响略有上涨。 近期国家出台《关于2025年可再生能源电力消纳责任权重及有关事项的通知》，该通知不会对电解铝生 产构成影响，但采购绿电或绿证将提升企业成本。 今年国内7月汽车产销分别完成259.1万辆和259.3万辆，环比分别下降7.3%和10.7%，同比分别增长 13.3%和14.7%。7月车市步入传统淡季，在部分厂家安排年度设备检修、部分地区补贴政策阶段性退 坡、汽车消费金融返佣下调及厂家促销力度收缩的影响下，消费者持观望心态。 ...

今日沪铝震荡偏强,华东现货升水20元。铝锭社库较上周四增加2万吨，铝棒增加0.9万吨。下游开工季节性回 升，年内库存大概率处于偏低水平，但累库拐点尚未明确，沪铝短期维持震荡，上方20800-21000元区域仍存阻 力。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太现货报价20100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整预期增加企业成本，现货 与沪铝跨品种价差存在进一步收窄空间。氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。 供应过刺逐渐显现,各地现货指数阴跌,今日河南有现货成交价3200元,氧化铝弱势震荡,3000元位置暂具备 支撑。 【锌】 鲍威尔放鸽,美9月降息预期升温,宏观情绪上修。基本面延续供增需弱,盘面反弹,下游对高价锌锭接受度不 足。现货贴水盘面，持货商倾向交仓，隐性库存不断显性化,SMM锌社库走高至13.85万吨。基本面和宏观共振 不足，盘面以空头减仓为主,多头入场偏谨慎。海内外矿增量如期兑现,进口矿TC继续走升，沪锌中线上仍以 反弹承压对待,倾向等待2.35万元/吨上方高空机会。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | なな女 | 肖静 首席分 ...

交易行情热点 热点一：原油走势震荡，后市分歧加剧 本周原油价格整体呈现宽幅震荡态势，未延续此前偏弱走势。布伦特原油本周上涨2.51%，收67.79美 元/桶；美原油上涨1.00%，收63.77美元/桶。 油价反弹受多空因素交织影响。在供应方面，OPEC月报数据显示，OPEC+7月份石油日产量增加了26.3 万桶，达到2754万桶，说明该组织逐步释放增产的产能，但仍旧低于增产计划，这在一定程度上缓解了 市场的供应担忧情绪。而据EIA数据，截至8月15日当周美国国内原油产量环比增加，产量有触底反弹 的态势，又令原油供应压力加大。 在需求方面，美国EIA原油库存超预期下降，需求端在短期内仍存在季节性改善的迹象，对油价形成支 撑；汽油总产量引申需求环比小幅回升，但整体处于近几年平均值附近，表明炼厂提负带动原油消费， 但是成品油消费增速有待改善。中国地炼预计在9月初迎来开工率爬坡周期，一定程度上可带动原油消 费。 具体来看，8月20日晚间，美国EIA数据显示，美国截至8月15日当周原油库存减少601.4万桶，预期为减 少175.9万桶，较过去五年均值低了5.07%；汽油库存减少272万桶，预期为减少91.5万桶；精炼油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may experience a situation of double - growth in supply and demand, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. The electrolytic aluminum market may see a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The overall aluminum market may face some pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of cast aluminum first declined and then rose, with a weekly change of +0.05%, closing at 20,175 yuan/ton. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.67%, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton. The alumina contract oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 2.09%, closing at 3,138 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina may face a situation of double - growth in supply and demand. Electrolytic aluminum may see stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from August 15; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,593 US dollars/ton, down 1.18% from August 15. The alumina futures price was 3,127 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from August 15; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,175 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from August 15 [8][12]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 22, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.11 from August 15. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from August 15; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,060 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from August 15 [9][20]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 575,286 lots, down 4.33% from August 15; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 10,019 lots from August 15 [15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, 2025, the alumina spot price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang regions decreased slightly. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,450 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from August 15. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from August 15, and the spot premium was 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 0.03% from August 14; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,653 tons, up 6.2% from the previous week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 540,000 tons, up 2.66% from August 14 [32]. - **Raw Material Import and Inventory**: As of the latest data, the nine - port inventory of domestic bauxite was 27.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons. In July 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22% [35]. - **Waste Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed waste aluminum in Shandong region was 15,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. In July 2025, the import volume of waste aluminum and scrap was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [41]. - **Alumina**: In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; the cumulative import from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In July 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The output was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; the cumulative output from January to July was 10.628 million tons. The import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In July 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64][67]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price is expected to experience slight oscillatory pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents data on commodity options, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and provides strategy recommendations for different commodities based on their current volatility levels [3][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Commodity Historical Volatility - Various commodities' historical volatility data (HV20, HV40, HV60, HV120) and daily price changes are presented, such as for沪铝 (20590, 49%, 10.13%, 6%, 8%, 9%, 11%),沪铜 (78540, -0.05%, 6.52%, 7%, 10%, 9%, 16%), etc. [3] Commodity Implied Volatility - Data on implied volatility, including主力平值IV and主力平值IV分位值, are provided for different commodities like氧化铝 (62%, 20%, 55%),二烯橡胶 (41%, 88%), etc. [5] Strategy Recommendations - For碳酸锂, recommend selling a wide - straddle (卖出LC2509C80000 + 卖HLC2509P75000) on 2025.7.24 as its volatility is relatively high [9]. - For铁矿石,豆油, and菜油, recommend buying wide - straddles on 2025.6.3 as their volatilities are relatively low. For example, for铁矿石, buy 头入I2509C690 + 头入12509P700 [9].

8月22日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少，碳酸锂主力跌逾4%。截止目前，碳酸锂主力下跌4.12%， 报79200.00元/吨；工业硅主力上涨0.58%，报8645.00元/吨；多晶硅主力下跌1.42%，报51295.00元/吨； 沪锡主力下跌0.62%，报266000.00元/吨。 8月22日有色金属期货价格行情 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝主力 | 3115.00 | 3124.00 | 3149.00 | | 碳酸锂主力 | 82500.00 | 82760.00 | 82600.00 | | 沪铜主力 | 78680.00 | 78540.00 | 78600.00 | | 国际铜主力 | 69640.00 | 69620.00 | 69700.00 | | 沪铝主力 | 20590.00 | 20590.00 | 20600.00 | | 铝合金主力 | 20130.00 | 20125.00 | 20130.00 | | 沪铅主力 | 16755.00 | 16745.00 | 16760.00 | | 沪镍主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper showed a slight downward oscillation with a slight increase in open interest. Recently, copper prices have been weak, but the amplitude has been narrowing, and open interest has stabilized. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled, and overseas risk appetite has declined. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper began to decline on Thursday. As the peak season approaches, industrial support may continue to strengthen. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong oscillation with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the domestic commodity atmosphere has cooled. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, and the inventory of downstream aluminum rods continued to decline slowly. As the peak season approaches, industrial support for aluminum prices has increased. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel increased in position and declined, with the main contract price breaking through the 120,000 - yuan mark. At the macro - level, the bullish atmosphere in the domestic market has cooled. At the industrial level, high domestic nickel ore and nickel inventories keep the nickel fundamentals weak. In the short term, with the cooling of the macro - atmosphere and weak fundamentals, the nickel price has broken through the 120,000 - yuan mark, and the futures price is expected to continue its decline [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 21, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 129,700 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons compared to the 14th and 14,500 tons compared to the 18th. The procurement and sales sentiment in the Shanghai area has improved. Looking ahead to tomorrow, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and under the drag of low - priced imported goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, as it is Friday tomorrow, the downstream procurement sentiment is expected to be strong, so the decline of the spot premium of Shanghai copper is limited [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 21, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the 14th and a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to the 18th. In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 611,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. In July 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8% [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,700 - 122,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,100 yuan/ton, a 200 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 4. Relevant Charts The report provides various charts for copper, aluminum, and nickel, including base differentials, inventory changes, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper base differentials, domestic and overseas inventory changes, and LME copper cancellation warrant ratios; for aluminum, there are charts of aluminum base differentials, social inventory changes, and alumina inventory changes; for nickel, there are charts of nickel base differentials, inventory changes, and LME nickel trends [12][25][38]