Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) shows strong market performance with a nearly 4% increase in early trading, reflecting investor confidence amid ongoing share buybacks and positive industry dynamics [1] Company Summary - China Hongqiao's share price rose by 2.75% to HKD 26.14, with a trading volume of HKD 471 million [1] - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, spending HKD 7.5941 million to buy back 300,000 shares on October 14, and a total of HKD 2.6 billion to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, indicating strong confidence from the board and management in the company's long-term strategy and growth [1] Industry Summary - Century Aluminum announced a significant reduction in production at its Grundartangi aluminum smelter due to a fault, affecting 200,000 tons of capacity and reducing output by approximately two-thirds, which represents about 0.3% of global capacity [1] - South32 indicated a high probability of the Mozal aluminum smelter being offline for maintenance due to power supply issues, potentially affecting 500,000 tons of capacity by March 2026 [1] - Citic Securities highlighted that the Mozal shutdown could have significant implications for the aluminum industry, suggesting a tightening supply constraint and potential upward pressure on prices, while Guohai Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for the aluminum sector due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand [1]

中信证券发布研报称，10月21日世纪铝业(CENX.US)公告其Grundartangi铝冶炼厂故障减产，涉及产能 20万吨，产量减少约三分之二，约占全球产能的0.3%。此前，8月，南拓32公告其Mozal铝冶炼厂由于 电力供应问题或于2026年3月停产保养，涉及产能50万吨;该行认为Mozal停产概率较高，或有成为铝行 业Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。供给约束持续强化，扰动抬头苗头初现，该行持续看好铝板块盈利估值齐 升行情。 该行计算Mozal铝厂占用莫桑比克全国发电量比例约43%，出口占比30%，但是GDP贡献占比仅为3.0- 3.2%，且由于税收减免政策税收占比小于0.2%。与之相比，莫桑比克政府持股HCB85%股权，后者分 红占比其财政收入2%左右。由此可见Mozal资源消耗以及经济贡献明显不均，且对于当地财政贡献显著 小于其电力供应商。据此，该行预计Mozal停产已成为大概率事件。Mozal铝厂2024年产量为49.3万吨， 约占全球产能的0.7%。考虑Mozal地缘政治背景和供需平衡影响，该行认为Mozal停产或有成为铝行业 Cobre Panama时刻的潜力。 供给约束持续强化，铝板块盈利 ...