Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期高位震荡，需关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材市场 - 云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修，预计影响总产量74.1万吨；安徽省部分钢厂停产，日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [4] - 成材价格震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观、冬储低迷，价格重心下移 [4] 铝市场 - 宏观上市场已消化2026年美联储两次降息预期，沪铝高位运行 [3] - 氧化铝市场供需偏松，现货价格弱势，期货反弹但原料端制约矿价，预计海内外矿价有下行压力 [4] - 贵州、广西部分企业产能恢复，河南受限，周产量环比小增0.5万吨，企业库存微增0.5万吨 [4] - 国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比下降0.3个百分点至61.5%，各细分行业开工率有不同表现 [4] - 12月22日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存60万吨，较上周一上涨0.4万吨，12月下旬预计库存稳中小增 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and running weakly. The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to run at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 74.1 thousand tons of total construction steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown plans, with a daily output impact of about 1.62 thousand tons [3]. - **Market Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3]. - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production decreased by 2.25% month - on - month and 6.96% year - on - year. Some mines affected by environmental policies and rainy seasons were waiting for government approval to resume production. Imported bauxite was sufficient, and domestic bauxite prices were expected to remain stable [3]. - **Downstream Processing**: The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6% last week, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, plates, and foils all declined due to various factors such as environmental protection, weak orders, and high aluminum prices [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622 thousand tons. The weak inventory accumulation pressure increased in November, which might have a negative impact on aluminum prices [3]. - **Market Situation**: Macro - support was strong, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The supply side hyped up the LME warehouse receipt shortage caused by production cuts. However, with the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand weakened, and inventory accumulation pressure increased. The price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [4].