Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the macro "boot" landing and the inventory still slightly accumulating [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Key factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3] - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a production halt from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the halt [2] Real Estate - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum ingots was consolidating at a high level yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but analysts have different interpretations of the Fed's signals. The Fed's dot - plot points to a steady easing pace [2] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, the operating total capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, and the weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is high, and the spot procurement is inactive. The demand side shows signs of recovery, with the overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. On September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can appear in late September needs further observation [3]

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 8 月 13 日 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：矿端消息提振价格 海外降息预期升温 投资咨询业务资格： 宏观降息预期支撑价格，关注国内政策推进，基本面矿端消息提振短 期铝价格，预计近期高位偏强为主，后续关注库消走势，淡季及实际影响 预计仍给到上方压力。 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity and run weakly, and it will be in a state of shock consolidation [2][4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, with short - term shock operation, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4] 3.2 Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. Fed officials are increasingly worried about the labor market and are open to cutting interest rates as early as September. Cooling inflation may strengthen the bet on an interest - rate cut next month, but if there are signs that Trump's tariffs are driving up prices, the Fed may hold off [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. From late June to July, the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea decreased, and the total import volume is expected to decline starting from August. The increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [4] - Last week, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The primary aluminum alloy continued to recover, but due to weak terminal demand, high aluminum prices and seasonal factors, enterprises were still cautious in production scheduling. The start - up rate of aluminum cables remained stable at 61.8%, supported by grid order deliveries. The start - up rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 49.5%, with weak demand in construction and industrial profiles. The start - up rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly to 68.4%, and the industry is expected to continue to shrink. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%, and the industry's overall start - up rate is under downward pressure [4] - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were fluctuations in inventory data, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [4] - In the current off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. The expectation of interest - rate cuts provides short - term support for prices. Attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [5]

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪缓和 铝价偏强震荡 观点：预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For finished products, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the price center of gravity continues to move downward. The market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3]. - For aluminum ingots, it is expected that the price will fluctuate within a short - term range. The downstream is at the stage of alternating between peak and off - peak seasons, and the inventory is still being depleted. Attention should be paid to the support of subsequent inventory performance on prices, as well as macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Production Shutdown Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' shutdown and maintenance during the Spring Festival are mostly from mid - January, with resumption expected from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January. Some individual steel mills may shut down after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Market Situation**: The finished products continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity keeps moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. 3.2铝锭 (Aluminum Ingots) - **Production Situation**: In April 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.6% year - on - year and decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. In May, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. Recently, some enterprises have carried out capacity maintenance, which has little impact on the supply side [3]. - **Demand Situation**: Before the festival, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 61.6% from the previous week and decreased by 2.8 percentage points year - on - year. Except for the aluminum cable industry, the start - up rates of other sectors have declined to varying degrees. The traditional peak season for aluminum downstream is coming to an end, and the seasonal decline in terminal demand and overseas trade frictions will put double pressure on the downstream start - up rate [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 636,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous Monday [3]. - **Macro Situation**: The domestic macro - environment has a positive atmosphere, while overseas, Trump's policy attitude is changeable, and there are many uncertainties in the tariff war, which puts pressure on the market [4].