晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：美元持续走弱 铝价高位运行 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位运行。宏观上美国利率期货现预计，美联储下一次降息 将在明年 6 月，市场已消化 2026 年进行两次每次 25 个基点降息的预期。 以伊冲突 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：国内基本面支撑不足 价格高位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 23 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝高位运行。宏观上海外数据进一步助长了对降息的乐观 情绪，近期数据促使市场向鸽派方向转变，利好支撑仍在。 以伊冲突 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：库存小幅积累 价格区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 观点：预计价格短期震荡运行，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间运行。宏观上周二，美国劳工 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，因其在供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，且今年冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] -铝土矿预计价格维持弱势震荡，虽北方地区国产矿供应偏紧，但铝土矿绝对库存仍处高位，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿偏低[4] -铝价预计短期高位震荡，宏观多空情绪交织，基本面对海外供应收紧有预期，国内淡季来临消费延后兑现，库存走势反复且上方有压力[5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 成材方面 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，复产预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右[3] -安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日已停产，大部分1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右[4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2%[4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强[4] 铝土矿方面 -北方地区国产矿供应偏紧格局延续，因接受环保督察开采未恢复，但铝土矿绝对库存高位，供应整体宽松，氧化铝厂加价采购意愿低[4] 铝价方面 -本周国内铝加工龙头企业周度开工率环比增0.3%至62.3%，铝型材等板块开工有好转[4] -周度铝水比例连续三周回落，铝锭供应压力略增，但铝价高位回落使近一周国内铝锭和铝棒出库量环比分别增20%和13%，带动铝锭库存降至60万吨以下[4] -11月27日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存59.60万吨，较周一下跌1.7万吨，较上周四下跌2.5万吨[4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke and Semi - finished Products**: The price of coke and semi - finished products is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The price center has shifted downward, and it is running weakly. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [1][3]. - **Aluminum Ingot**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The industry has entered the traditional off - season, with overall weak demand. The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke and Semi - finished Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance from mid - January are expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3]. - **Market Situation**: Coke and semi - finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with pessimistic sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to move in a sideways pattern, and future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum Ingot - **Bauxite Supply**: During the environmental inspection period, the supply of domestic bauxite in the north remains tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the shipment of imported bauxite has increased, providing support for future arrivals [3]. - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry have deepened. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern with a 59.8% operating rate; the aluminum cable has a slight increase in the operating rate to 62.4% due to grid orders. However, most sectors are under downward pressure, with the operating rates of aluminum sheet, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil showing different trends [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: On November 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 621,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from Monday and the same as last Thursday [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is influenced by a mix of long and short sentiments. There are still expectations of a tightening of overseas supply, but the domestic off - season has led to a weakening downstream and fluctuating inventory trends. The price is expected to run at a high level, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]. - **Viewpoint**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and ore - end news [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and running weakly. The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to run at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 74.1 thousand tons of total construction steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown plans, with a daily output impact of about 1.62 thousand tons [3]. - **Market Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3]. - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - **Bauxite Production**: In October 2025, China's bauxite production decreased by 2.25% month - on - month and 6.96% year - on - year. Some mines affected by environmental policies and rainy seasons were waiting for government approval to resume production. Imported bauxite was sufficient, and domestic bauxite prices were expected to remain stable [3]. - **Downstream Processing**: The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6% last week, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, plates, and foils all declined due to various factors such as environmental protection, weak orders, and high aluminum prices [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622 thousand tons. The weak inventory accumulation pressure increased in November, which might have a negative impact on aluminum prices [3]. - **Market Situation**: Macro - support was strong, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The supply side hyped up the LME warehouse receipt shortage caused by production cuts. However, with the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand weakened, and inventory accumulation pressure increased. The price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, gradually transitioning to the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro - guidance [1][4] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - The short - flow construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui Province, 6 short - flow steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish this year, with weak price support [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - In October, the fully - taxed full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry decreased by 1.8% month - on - month and 13.3% year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in the average monthly price of alumina. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month [3] - In October, the aluminum processing comprehensive PMI index dropped by 6.8 percentage points to 48.9%, falling below the boom - bust line. The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, mainly due to factors such as high aluminum prices, weak construction demand, and weakening export momentum [3] - Last Thursday, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream domestic consumption areas was 619,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1000 tons and a decrease of 31,000 tons from the post - holiday high. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 22,000 tons. In November, the pressure of weak inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots increases, which may have a negative impact on the subsequent aluminum price [3] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and changes in the ratio of inventory to consumption and high - level pressure [4] - Future attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term, with the macro "boot" landing and the inventory still slightly accumulating [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices. The view is that it will move in a volatile and consolidating manner. Key factors to watch include macro policies and downstream demand [3] - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region will have a production halt from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the halt [2] Real Estate - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum ingots was consolidating at a high level yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Wednesday, but analysts have different interpretations of the Fed's signals. The Fed's dot - plot points to a steady easing pace [2] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high. As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.32 million tons/year, the operating total capacity is 92.33 million tons/year, and the weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants is high, and the spot procurement is inactive. The demand side shows signs of recovery, with the overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increasing by 0.4 percentage points to 62.1% last week. On September 18, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from Monday and 13,000 tons from last Thursday. Whether the inventory decline inflection point can appear in late September needs further observation [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with macro - level interest rate cut expectations and short - term support from ore - end news, but there is still pressure on the upside [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. The market sentiment is pessimistic in the weak supply - demand pattern, and the winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - On August 10, the Shanxi Natural Resources Department adjusted the registration authority for some mineral types, which boosted the alumina futures. However, alumina is in an overall oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [2] - The current factor affecting the ore market is that domestic mines cannot resume production, but the impact on domestic bauxite supply is minimal [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The aluminum cable operating rate remained stable at 61.8%, while the aluminum profile operating rate decreased slightly to 49.5% [2] - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and last Monday. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [2] - The macro - level interest rate cut expectation supports the price, and the ore - end news boosts the short - term aluminum price. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the upside is still under pressure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity and run weakly, and it will be in a state of shock consolidation [2][4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, with short - term shock operation, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4] 3.2 Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. Fed officials are increasingly worried about the labor market and are open to cutting interest rates as early as September. Cooling inflation may strengthen the bet on an interest - rate cut next month, but if there are signs that Trump's tariffs are driving up prices, the Fed may hold off [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. From late June to July, the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea decreased, and the total import volume is expected to decline starting from August. The increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [4] - Last week, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The primary aluminum alloy continued to recover, but due to weak terminal demand, high aluminum prices and seasonal factors, enterprises were still cautious in production scheduling. The start - up rate of aluminum cables remained stable at 61.8%, supported by grid order deliveries. The start - up rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 49.5%, with weak demand in construction and industrial profiles. The start - up rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly to 68.4%, and the industry is expected to continue to shrink. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%, and the industry's overall start - up rate is under downward pressure [4] - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were fluctuations in inventory data, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [4] - In the current off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. The expectation of interest - rate cuts provides short - term support for prices. Attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [5]