1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum slightly declining throughout the week, and the spot market showing marginal improvement. Looking ahead, the marginal deterioration of the trade situation will suppress market sentiment, while the high probability of interest rate cuts provides emotional support. From an industrial perspective, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with limited marginal increase in supply. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises has increased, and the continuous rise in the processing fee of aluminum rods is conducive to the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, providing strong support for the downside of aluminum prices. This week, the operating range reference for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 20,500 - 20,900 yuan/ton; the operating range reference for LME Aluminum 3M is 2,610 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [12] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 130,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase, and it was at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot premium of domestic East China aluminum ingots over futures was 5 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 4.7 US dollars/ton [12] - **Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%, remaining at a relatively high level this year. This week, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports narrowed month - on - month [12] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8% to 63.0% compared with last week. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip sample enterprises increased by 0.8% to 69.0% this week, the aluminum cable and wire increased by 1.8% to 67%, the aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.6%, and the aluminum foil operating rate increased by 0.7% to 72.6% [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.05% to 20,745 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's close); LME Aluminum fell 1.08% to 2,649 US dollars/ton [23] - **Term Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was at par [28] - **Spot Basis**: The East China and Central China regions turned to premiums, while the discount in the South China region widened. The Central China spot strengthened relatively [34][35] - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M turned to a discount [42] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The smelting profit of primary aluminum increased compared with last week and was at a historical high [45] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday, indicating inventory reduction. According to SMM statistics, the bonded area inventory this week was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [50] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the total inventory of aluminum rods on Thursday was 130,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from Monday and 14,000 tons from last Thursday [55] - **LME Inventory**: The global LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, still at a low level in the same period of previous years. In August, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased, significantly squeezing and exceeding the proportion of Russian aluminum [60][64] 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite price in Henan, China, decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared with last week [71] - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [74] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly compared with last week [76] 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In August, the monthly output of alumina was 7.738 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons compared with July, a year - on - year increase of 7.16% [83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [86] - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rise this week. The domestic molten aluminum ratio increased by 1.3% in August, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 10.4% year - on - year and 4.68% month - on - month to about 931,000 tons. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [89] - **Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The output of each province in August was basically the same as that in July, among which Shandong's output decreased by 18,700 tons and Yunnan's increased by 28,000 tons [94] 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output**: In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to August was 43.79 million tons, flat year - on - year. As of September 22, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase [98] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In August, the operating rate of aluminum profiles declined month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum plates, strips and foils rebounded, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots continued to decline month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton [105][108][111] - **Terminal Demand**: The production schedules of the three major white - goods released by Industry Online show that in October 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 11.53 million units, a decrease of 18.0% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline widening; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.63 million units, a decrease of 5.8% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline slightly narrowing; the production schedule of washing machines was 9.08 million units, a slight decrease of 1.6% compared with the actual output in the same period last year. The current real estate data is also weak, the automobile production and sales are acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules in September is expected to rebound slightly [115] 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 217,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.3%, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 1.714 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Recently, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [120] - **Aluminum Ingot Import Source**: In July, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, etc. Among them, the import volume from Russia was 190,800 tons, accounting for 77% [124] - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the cumulative exports from January to August were 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [127] - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's recycled aluminum imports were 173,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. The imports from January to August were 1.345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [127] - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to August were 141.49 million tons [130] - **Alumina Exports**: In August 2025, China's alumina exports were 181,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.3%, a year - on - year increase of 26.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to August were 1.753 million tons [130]