2025 年四季度铝 策略报告 2025 年 1 0 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铝：需求引领定价，利润自上转下 p 2 | 铝：需求引领定价，利润自上转下 | | --- | | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1、供给：氧化铝方面，内矿稍有缓解，进口矿持续出现增量。国内外氧化铝新增产能超速投放，利润大幅收窄后投放降速。电解铝方面， | | | 供给整体小幅提升，广西技改项目、贵州云南前期置换项目逐步启槽投产。据SMM，1-9月国内冶金级氧化铝产量6660.6万吨，同比上涨 | | | 8.2%，运行产能升至9135万吨，开工率升至82.8%。1-9月国内电解铝产量3275.7万吨，同比上涨2.1%，运行产能升至4400万吨，开工率升 | | | 至96.3%，铝水比涨至76%。 | | | 2、需求：旺季效应加码叠加高价抑制备货并存，三季度平均开工率60.1%，同比去年下滑2.51%；6-8月下游综合加工订单超预期，加工 | | | PMI均值45.8，同比去年增长3.2，预计9月PMI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum slightly declining throughout the week, and the spot market showing marginal improvement. Looking ahead, the marginal deterioration of the trade situation will suppress market sentiment, while the high probability of interest rate cuts provides emotional support. From an industrial perspective, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with limited marginal increase in supply. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises has increased, and the continuous rise in the processing fee of aluminum rods is conducive to the reduction of aluminum ingot inventory, providing strong support for the downside of aluminum prices. This week, the operating range reference for the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum is 20,500 - 20,900 yuan/ton; the operating range reference for LME Aluminum 3M is 2,610 - 2,700 US dollars/ton [12][13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply Side**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [12] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 130,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase, and it was at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot premium of domestic East China aluminum ingots over futures was 5 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 4.7 US dollars/ton [12] - **Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%, remaining at a relatively high level this year. This week, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports narrowed month - on - month [12] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8% to 63.0% compared with last week. The operating rate of the aluminum plate and strip sample enterprises increased by 0.8% to 69.0% this week, the aluminum cable and wire increased by 1.8% to 67%, the aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.6%, and the aluminum foil operating rate increased by 0.7% to 72.6% [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Shanghai Aluminum fell 0.05% to 20,745 yuan/ton this week (as of Friday afternoon's close); LME Aluminum fell 1.08% to 2,649 US dollars/ton [23] - **Term Spread**: The spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was at par [28] - **Spot Basis**: The East China and Central China regions turned to premiums, while the discount in the South China region widened. The Central China spot strengthened relatively [34][35] - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME Aluminum Cash/3M turned to a discount [42] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The smelting profit of primary aluminum increased compared with last week and was at a historical high [45] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the inventory on Thursday was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday, indicating inventory reduction. According to SMM statistics, the bonded area inventory this week was 89,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [50] - **Aluminum Rod Inventory**: According to MYSTELL data, the total inventory of aluminum rods on Thursday was 130,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from Monday and 14,000 tons from last Thursday [55] - **LME Inventory**: The global LME aluminum inventory was 518,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, still at a low level in the same period of previous years. In August, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased, significantly squeezing and exceeding the proportion of Russian aluminum [60][64] 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite price in Henan, China, decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared with last week [71] - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by 2 US dollars/ton [74] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly compared with last week [76] 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In August, the monthly output of alumina was 7.738 million tons, an increase of 88,000 tons compared with July, a year - on - year increase of 7.16% [83] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was about 44 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects, and the output was 3.733 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. In September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to increase slightly [86] - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rise this week. The domestic molten aluminum ratio increased by 1.3% in August, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 10.4% year - on - year and 4.68% month - on - month to about 931,000 tons. This week, the proportion of molten aluminum of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises rose to 76.4% [89] - **Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The output of each province in August was basically the same as that in July, among which Shandong's output decreased by 18,700 tons and Yunnan's increased by 28,000 tons [94] 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output**: In August, China's aluminum product output was 5.548 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to August was 43.79 million tons, flat year - on - year. As of September 22, the daily outbound volume of aluminum ingots was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase [98] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In August, the operating rate of aluminum profiles declined month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum plates, strips and foils rebounded, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots continued to decline month - on - month, the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton [105][108][111] - **Terminal Demand**: The production schedules of the three major white - goods released by Industry Online show that in October 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 11.53 million units, a decrease of 18.0% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline widening; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.63 million units, a decrease of 5.8% compared with the actual output in the same period last year, with the decline slightly narrowing; the production schedule of washing machines was 9.08 million units, a slight decrease of 1.6% compared with the actual output in the same period last year. The current real estate data is also weak, the automobile production and sales are acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules in September is expected to rebound slightly [115] 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 217,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.3%, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 1.714 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Recently, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [120] - **Aluminum Ingot Import Source**: In July, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, Malaysia, etc. Among them, the import volume from Russia was 190,800 tons, accounting for 77% [124] - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the cumulative exports from January to August were 4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2% [127] - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In August 2025, China's recycled aluminum imports were 173,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 25.3%. The imports from January to August were 1.345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [127] - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to August were 141.49 million tons [130] - **Alumina Exports**: In August 2025, China's alumina exports were 181,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.3%, a year - on - year increase of 26.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to August were 1.753 million tons [130]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In September, the domestic aluminum market is expected to show a stable - to - strong supply - demand situation. The operating rate of aluminum plants is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is likely to rise, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand recovery period, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to support prices. The price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [5][12]. - Currently, the consumption side shows only marginal improvement, and it still takes time for inventory to be effectively reduced. However, due to the low total inventory, the aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall in the traditional peak season of September, but there is still upward pressure [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In September, the domestic aluminum plant capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. The demand recovery expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" is strong, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to start de - stocking around mid - September, forming support for prices. The supply - demand situation in September is stable and slightly strong [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support was seen at 20,600, and the resistance was seen at 20,900 - 21,000. It was advisable to wait and see [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support is seen at 20,300, and the resistance is seen at 20,900. Short - term trading is advisable [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The domestic bauxite inventory is at a high level, and raw material supply is abundant [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 5, the domestic alumina installed capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 95.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 84.38% (85.58% last week), currently at the highest level since 2022. With the existence of smelting profits, the weekly output remains high, but the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost this week, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum installed capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%, at the average level since 2023. In September, with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity, the operating capacity will increase slightly, and the output is expected to increase slightly. There is an expectation of a rebound in the proportion of molten aluminum in September [10]. - **Imports and Exports**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,200 yuan/ton (about 1,300 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. However, in general, the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7% this week, and the "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging. Different sectors have different performances, such as the slow recovery of the primary aluminum alloy sector, the strong performance of the aluminum strip due to order growth in the automotive and 3C fields, and the rebound of the aluminum cable due to concentrated grid order delivery [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 628,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 21% lower than the same period last year. The weekly inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory is 136,500 tons, an increase of about 8% compared with last week and about 19% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is basically stable and is still at a low level since 1990, and there is a high probability of further inventory accumulation in the future [11]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 270 yuan/ton (about 380 yuan/ton last week). The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton (3,100 yuan/ton last week), with profits at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In September, with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed to varying degrees this week. For example, the price of Henan first - grade alumina decreased by 2.04% week - on - week, and the price of power coal decreased by 1.58% week - on - week. The price of pre - baked anodes in Henan increased by 1.48% week - on - week [13]. - The bauxite bulk cargo trading volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to remain stable in the near future. The coal price has decreased slightly, and downstream customers are resistant to the current price. The alumina price has continued to decline slightly, with supply exceeding demand, inventory accumulation, and downward pressure on the spot price [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 2.16% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline in early September. The overall alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, with the increase mainly coming from electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants [16][18]. - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in 7 cities increased by 0.96% week - on - week, and the inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory increased by 7.91% week - on - week, mainly due to the full resumption of processing plants and weak downstream demand. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week and is still at a low level since 1990 [11][16][18]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contracts maintain a premium over the far - month contracts, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,960 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,830 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long positions of overseas funds have remained stable in the past three weeks. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's significant interest - rate cut frequency, the price may show a strong - biased volatile trend in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long positions of the main force remained stable, and both the long and short camps continued to reduce their positions since July. The net long positions of funds with a financial speculation background rebounded slightly, but the camp differentiation is still obvious. The net long positions of funds with a mid - downstream enterprise background remained stable. The market is expected to be dominated by wide - range fluctuations in the near future [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector and basic metals and processing [7] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about aluminum prices, projecting them to rise to 22,000 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025 due to tight supply and low inventory levels [4][54] - The demand for aluminum is expected to remain resilient, particularly in the photovoltaic and automotive sectors, leading to an upward revision of the domestic aluminum consumption growth rate to 2.6% for 2025 [2][39] Demand Summary - The pessimistic outlook for aluminum demand has reversed, with a projected 4.9% increase in aluminum demand from the photovoltaic sector in the second half of 2025, contributing to an annual growth rate of 7.1% [2][13] - The automotive sector shows resilience supported by the vehicle replacement policy, with a 12.01% year-on-year increase in domestic car sales from January to July 2025 [17][19] - The impact of U.S. tariff policies on aluminum demand is expected to diminish, with a minor decrease in imports and stable domestic consumption levels [23][24] Supply Summary - Domestic aluminum production growth has significantly slowed, with a projected annual growth rate of only 1.55% for 2025 due to capacity constraints [3][42] - The aluminum ingot import window is unlikely to open significantly, as the import loss calculation indicates a negative margin for imports [3][42] Price Summary - Low inventory levels are expected to support higher aluminum prices, with projections indicating a decline in social inventory to below 400,000 tons by the end of 2025 [4][54] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the undervaluation of the aluminum sector, with average profits expected to rise to over 4,500 CNY/ton in the second half of 2025, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5][61] - Recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co., Ltd. and Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd., both rated as "Buy" with target prices of 24.09 CNY and 22.66 CNY respectively [9][67]

Market Review - The main contract for aluminum futures closed at 20,710 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 140,000 tons, down by 3,000 tons from Monday, but up by 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - On September 4, 2025, the total aluminum rod inventory in Guangdong and Wuxi is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [2] - According to research, the preliminary value of China's primary aluminum production in August 2025 is 3.7879 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 0.29% month-on-month; the average daily output in August is 122,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the rapid inventory buildup in various downstream sectors ahead of the peak season in September indicates a potential for demand in the electrolytic aluminum sector to exceed expectations, with profits in the aluminum industry continuing to shift from upstream to downstream [3] - Yide Futures notes that the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is recovering, supporting aluminum prices; however, aluminum ingot inventories remain below seasonal levels, and terminal consumption has not significantly started, indicating insufficient upward driving forces [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [2][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2622 | 2619 | - 3.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 20560 | 20715 | 155.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | 2.07 | 2.98 | 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 479525 | 481050 | 1525.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 57144 | 58629 | 1485.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20604 | 20772 | 168.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | 30 | - 30 | - 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Reserve Spot Average Price | 20562 | 20712 | 150.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 42 | 60 | 18.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 59.6 | 62 | 2.4 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16628.88 | 16581.41 | - 47.5 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 3975.12 | 4190.59 | 215.5 | yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's dismissal of Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence. The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000. The eurozone economic sentiment index in August dropped to 95.2. In China, Shanghai introduced real - estate new policies, and the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed [4] - **Consumption end**: The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7% week - on - week, but the order recovery degree of each segment varied, and the short - term downstream operating rate may still rise slowly [5] - **Inventory aspect**: On August 28, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons from last Thursday [5] 3.3 Market Outlook The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [6] 3.4 Industry News - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum output in July 2025 was 510,200 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July was 3.4142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [7] - The Yunnan Green and Low - Carbon Demonstration Industrial Park was completed, and the 1.93 - million - ton low - carbon aluminum B - series project of Yunnan Honghe was put into production. Currently, the first - stage capacity of 160,715 tons in the B - series has reached full production, and the transferred capacity of 378,000 tons is expected to reach full production before October 1 [7] - The retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market in the first 24 days of August was 727,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6% and 7% respectively. The new - energy retail penetration rate has reached 56.6%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of the year has reached 7.182 million, a year - on - year surge of 27% [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai Aluminum's inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [8][9][12][14]

Reporting Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range, with the price likely to move between 29,500 and 21,300. The lower limit is supported by the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, domestic anti - involution policies, and the possible invalidation of Trump's tariffs by the US Court of Appeals after mid - October. The upper limit is restricted by the realization of overseas hidden inventories and concerns about the decline in China's export growth in the second half of the year. In the short term, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate, and the market will be in a state of wide - range oscillation [5][13]. Summary According to the Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 29,500 - 21,300. Buying mid - term long positions can be considered when the price is below 20,000 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the next week, the support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is between 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: In early September, aluminum prices may still be relatively strong, and the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement in demand. The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see. Spot enterprises are recommended to maintain appropriate inventories [8][9]. Overall View - **Supply - side**: China's bauxite inventory has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet the production needs for the year. The alumina capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. The electrolytic aluminum production is at the average level since 2923, and the production ceiling is controllable. The current import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year [10]. - **Demand - side**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, and aluminum foils is expected to rise, while the growth of primary aluminum alloy is limited. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to enter an upward channel, and the orders of some building profiles have increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 5% compared with last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 6% compared with last week and is about 15% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [12][19]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 380 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is greater than 80%, and there is a trillion - level infrastructure stimulus and anti - involution support in China. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable and rising, the demand has peak - season expectations but no substantial improvement, and the inventory pressure is prominent, so the aluminum price will oscillate [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - **Bauxite**: The price of bauxite is expected to remain stable in the near future, with a slight increase in bulk cargo transactions this week [14]. - **Coal**: Due to the approaching major event, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the procurement demand is postponed to after September [14]. - **Alumina**: The price continues to decline slightly, with oversupply, inventory accumulation, and a bearish fundamental situation [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has stabilized, the market sentiment has strengthened, and the purchasing willingness has increased [15]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - **Domestic**: The inventory of bauxite in domestic ports has increased slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate in the short term [17][19]. - **Overseas**: The LME aluminum inventory has basically remained flat in the past two weeks, and it is still at a low level since 1990. It is likely to continue to accumulate in the future [19]. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The profit of the alumina industry is about 380 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 3,100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,300 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. Different sectors have different trends, with some expected to rise and some with limited growth [26]. Futures - Spot Structure The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contract has a premium over the far - month contract, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,830 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is stable. Due to the increasing market divergence, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has been reduced. The market will be in a wide - range oscillation, and the adjustment pressure in the next week is slightly higher [43].

Core Insights - The company, Innovation New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., reported its 2025 semi-annual results, highlighting challenges such as intensified market competition, the cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates, and U.S. tariff trade frictions [1] - Despite these challenges, the company has focused on deepening its industrial structure adjustments and enhancing its presence in high-end product areas, particularly in 3C consumer electronics profiles and high-end aluminum rod and cable sectors [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 39.141 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.05% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 355 million yuan, a decline of 38.69% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to increased market competition, the cancellation of aluminum export tax rebates, and a decrease in sales volume of aluminum rods and foil products [1] - The total sales volume for the first half of the year was 2.1878 million tons, a decrease of 3.33% year-on-year [1] Product Segmentation - The sales breakdown included 77,200 tons of profiles, 501,300 tons of aluminum rods and cables, 1,470,600 tons of bars, 138,700 tons of foil, and 9.7199 million structural components [1]

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on Shanghai Aluminum (August 18 - 22) - Author: Zhu Senlin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated, adjusted, and declined last week, with the main contract falling 0.67% to close at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - Under the goal of carbon neutrality, long - term capacity control, weak demand in the domestic real estate market, cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products, and the US increase in steel and aluminum tariffs are negative factors for domestic aluminum prices [3] - Domestically, demand has entered the off - season, waiting for consumption to recover [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum's main contract declined 0.67% last week, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton on Friday [3] - LME inventory was 478,725 tons last week, showing a slight decrease from the previous week, while SHFE weekly inventory increased by 3,952 tons to 124,605 tons [3] 2. Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) 2.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Time | Production (10,000 tons) | Net Imports (10,000 tons) | Apparent Consumption (10,000 tons) | Actual Consumption (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Balance (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | 3609 | 7.03 | 3615.03 | 3662.63 | - 47.6 | | 2019 | 3542.48 | - 0.64 | 3541.84 | 3610.44 | - 68.61 | | 2020 | 3712.44 | 105.78 | 3818.22 | 3816.92 | 1.3 | | 2021 | 3849.2 | 150.33 | 3994.63 | 4008.83 | - 14.2 | | 2022 | 4007.33 | 46.55 | 4053.88 | 4083.86 | - 29.98 | | 2023 | 4151.3 | 139.24 | 4290.51 | 4294.81 | - 4.3 | | 2024 | 4312.27 | 196.16 | 4502.5 | 4487.5 | 15 | [10] 2.2 Other Elements - The report also mentions aluminum, bauxite, alumina, and aluminum rods, but specific content is not detailed [6] 3. Market Structure - The market structure section includes the analysis of the basis and import profit, but specific data is not provided [25]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum processing industry, particularly the downstream sectors and their performance amid current market conditions [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Aluminum processing fees have continued to decline, with July seeing a drop of over 30% in East and South China, leading to a capacity utilization rate of 43.75% [1][2]. - Despite the low demand season, August orders stabilized, and inventory levels decreased, leading to optimistic expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a slight increase in capacity utilization expected in September [1][3]. Production Capacity and Utilization - The total production capacity of aluminum profile enterprises exceeds 10 million tons, with an operational rate around 50% [1][3]. - The construction profile segment has been significantly impacted by the sluggish real estate market, with its share dropping from over 70% in 2019 to 45.7% in 2024 [1][3]. Real Estate Market Impact - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 19.4% and completion area down by 16.5%, resulting in a reduction of aluminum consumption in the real estate sector by 353,000 tons [1][3]. Export Opportunities - To cope with domestic market challenges, some aluminum profile enterprises are actively expanding exports, with coastal factories reporting an export proportion of over 50% [1][3]. - However, international trade frictions and policies regarding green aluminum pose challenges to this strategy [1][4]. Demand from New Energy Sectors - Demand for aluminum in the new energy sector is growing significantly, particularly in photovoltaic and new energy vehicle (NEV) fields, with a year-on-year increase of over 99% in new photovoltaic installations and over 38% in NEV production and sales from January to July [1][6]. Challenges in New Energy Market - Aluminum processing enterprises face challenges such as the cancellation of photovoltaic subsidies, rapid domestic capacity expansion, and high collaboration thresholds with major automotive companies [1][7]. Specific Market Segments - The aluminum plate and foil market is experiencing pressure due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and international trade frictions, with a cumulative export volume decrease of 9.5% from January to July [1][8][9]. - The aluminum rod market is expected to see demand driven by electric grid investments, with positive expectations for the third and fourth quarters [1][12][13]. Future Outlook - The overall demand growth for the aluminum industry is expected to remain steady but varies significantly across different segments, with construction profiles likely to see negative growth while new energy sectors may maintain double-digit growth [1][21][22]. - The aluminum processing sector is anticipated to face ongoing challenges, including supply-demand imbalances and low-price competition, which may hinder profit recovery [1][24]. Additional Important Insights - The aluminum processing industry is characterized by a trend of larger enterprises increasing their melting capacity and sourcing recycled aluminum, while smaller enterprises focus on optimizing equipment and utilizing clean energy [1][5]. - The market for recycled aluminum ingots is expected to see a gradual price increase due to tight supply and supportive policies, with a projected price of around 20,000 yuan per ton [1][19]. - The overall sentiment among processing enterprises remains cautious, with many adopting a price-for-volume strategy to navigate the oversupply situation [1][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the aluminum industry.