有色商品日报 | 铝棒加工费多地持稳，包头南昌无锡下调 | 70-80 元/吨；铝杆 1A60 | 系加工费持稳，6/8 | | --- | --- | --- | | 系加工费持稳，低碳铝杆云南上调 71 元/吨。北方开启环保监察，目前针对矿端较多， | | | | 北方氧化铝厂有阶段检修，未有规模减产。新疆仓库库容趋于满仓，氧化铝社库小幅解 | | | | 压，下游原料备货出现积压，持续对价格施压。随着美降息预期下滑，宏观情绪转为谨 | | | | 慎。铝价重心回调叠加河南环保限产暂解，加工产线部分恢复运行，铝锭出库有所提升。 | | | | 新疆发运初显紧张态势叠加铝水回调有限，助力铝锭库存延续窄幅去库。短期支撑铝价， | | | | 上方仍有限制。 | | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 1.29%报 14920 美元/吨，沪镍涨 1.1%报 117410 元/吨。库存方面，LME | | | | 库存持平至 253482 吨，SHFE 仓单减少 843 吨至 33650 吨。升贴水来看，LME0-3 月升 | | | | 贴水维持负数；进口镍升贴水维持 500 元/吨。镍矿方面，镍矿基准价格小幅下跌，但 ...

广西铝交易中心负责人表示，企业可通过此次合作上线的广西铝交易中心报价专区集中发布产品信息与 报价，自主协商达成交易，并在广西铝交易中心完成结算与交收流程。依托上期所的市场影响力，企业 可以扩大销售半径，将交易对象的辐射范围拓展至全国。该专区同时也衔接了区域现货市场与上期所的 铝期货、氧化铝期货、铸造铝合金期货市场，企业在广西铝交易中心报价时，可参考期货市场价格，为 企业开展期现联动业务提供了更好支持。 11月21日，上期所上期综合业务平台上线广西铝交易中心报价专区。上线初期，报价品种包括氧化铝、 铝锭、铝棒和铸造铝合金，报价品种指定交收库为广东中储晟世照邦物流等8家交收仓库和广西百矿铝 业等6家交收厂库，覆盖南宁、百色、崇左、来宾等广西主要铝型材产区，报价方式包含全价报价和基 差报价。 据期货日报记者了解，广西是全国铝型材的重要生产基地，铝材产量位居全国前列，目前已经形成"铝 土矿—氧化铝—电解铝—铝加工—再生铝"的全产业链。为满足当地铝行业企业在拓展购销渠道、实物 交收渠道以及使用衍生工具进行定价和风险管理方面的需求，广西铝产品仓储交易中心（简称广西铝交 易中心）于2022年获批成立，成为该地区首家铝产品类 ...

（文章来源：期货日报网） 本报讯上期所20日消息，上期综合业务平台自2025年11月21日起上线广西铝交易中心报价专区，报价品 种为铝锭、氧化铝、铸造铝合金和铝棒。（齐宣） ...

Group 1: Company Overview - Xinxu (XXC) is headquartered in Wuhu, Anhui, and plans to issue 1.5 million shares at a price range of $4 to $5 per share, aiming to raise between $6 million and $7.5 million [1][3] - EvoNexus (EVON) is based in Hong Kong and intends to issue 2 million shares at a price of $4 per share, targeting to raise $8 million [1][5] Group 2: Business Operations - Xinxu specializes in the research, manufacturing, processing, sales, and distribution of copper and copper alloy products, with core products including T2 red copper rods, T2 tin-plated copper rods, electrolytic copper, and aluminum rods, primarily used in electronics, telecommunications, automotive, air conditioning, and shipping industries [3] - EvoNexus focuses on developing mobile applications that emphasize social and entertainment aspects to facilitate cross-language and cultural communication [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the six months ending December 31, 2024, Xinxu reported revenue of $66.48 million, up from $49.26 million in the same period last year, with a net profit of $1.5 million compared to a loss of $290,000 in the previous year [3] - For the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, EvoNexus reported revenue of $11.57 million, an increase from $11.01 million the previous year, with a net profit of $930,000 compared to a loss of $590,000 in the prior year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the impact of aluminum prices on its procurement and sales strategies, highlighting the importance of cost management and innovation to maintain profitability amid market fluctuations [1] Procurement Insights - The primary raw material for the company is aluminum rods, with prices influenced by upstream aluminum ingot prices, which are subject to volatility as a bulk commodity [1] - The procurement pricing model follows "aluminum ingot market price + processing fee," referencing publicly available prices for "A00 aluminum" from Changjiang Nonferrous and Guangdong Nanchu [1] Sales Strategy - The company's battery box products are customized and non-standard, leading to a lack of a standardized market price due to varying customer requirements in functionality, material type, appearance, and other parameters [1] Cost Management - The company places a high priority on cost management and will closely monitor the impact of aluminum price fluctuations on its performance [1] - Strategies to control costs and maintain gross margins include optimizing the supply chain and improving production efficiency [1] Innovation and Growth - The company is committed to continuous technological innovation and expanding into high-quality sectors to ensure stable operations and performance improvement [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry, including gold, copper, aluminum, and small metals like tungsten and lithium, is experiencing a positive outlook with strong market confidence despite some concerns regarding price fluctuations and supply-demand dynamics [2][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market - Gold prices are expected to find strong support between $3,900 and $4,000, with an adjustment period of 2 to 4 weeks, potentially leading to consolidation until early next year. Inflation may drive future price increases [1][4][15]. - Companies involved in gold production are projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of gold output between 10% to 20% from 2026 to 2029, indicating strong investment potential despite price fluctuations [1][5]. Copper Market - The price of copper is anticipated to be influenced more by supply-demand fundamentals rather than movements in gold prices. A significant price increase is expected in 2026, potentially exceeding $11,000, driven by global liquidity easing [1][7][15]. - Supply shortages are projected for copper due to production guidance reductions from several mines, which could lead to a supply shortfall of approximately 2% in 2026 [8]. Aluminum Market - The electrolytic aluminum sector has outperformed expectations, with domestic production peaking and no significant increases in overseas supply. The demand for aluminum alloys and rods is improving, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [1][9][10]. - Aluminum is characterized by low absolute and relative valuations, with a strong dividend trend, making it a valuable investment opportunity [16]. Small Metals Market - Recent price increases have been observed in small metals such as tungsten, lithium carbonate, and magnesium. Cobalt prices may rise above 400,000 yuan due to supportive supply-demand fundamentals [1][11]. - Tungsten is experiencing a strategic shortage, while lithium's demand is currently strong but supply has not yet caught up, indicating potential for future price increases [11][17]. Steel Market - The steel market faces short-term export pressures but is not expected to collapse. Profit margins for steel companies remain around 55%, although many are operating at minimal profits [3][13]. - Strategic investments in low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies are recommended, especially as some regions begin to reduce production to maintain prices [3][13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector remains optimistic, with concerns primarily focused on gold price volatility and potential unexpected changes in aluminum supply [2][14]. - The market dynamics for copper and aluminum are largely independent of gold price movements, emphasizing the importance of individual supply-demand fundamentals [6][14]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting the positive outlook and investment opportunities across various segments.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the aluminum market this week is concentrated on the sudden disturbances in the international supply. After the previous news of the shutdown of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique under South32, Century Aluminum's Grundartangi aluminum plant in Iceland announced production cuts due to equipment failures this week, intensifying market concerns about overseas supply. The LME aluminum rose 2.8% to $2,856.5 per ton, reaching a new high for the year; SHFE aluminum rose 1.4% to 21,225 yuan per ton, and the internal - external price spread widened. With relatively stable demand and expected supply disturbances, aluminum prices are expected to further fluctuate upwards. This week, the operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be between 21,000 - 21,600 yuan per ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between $2,780 - $2,950 per ton [12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of September, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with a slight increase due to the commissioning of some replacement projects. In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased 1.1% year - on - year and decreased 3.2% month - on - month. In October, the operating capacity is expected to continue a slight increase. In September, the domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded 1.2% month - on - month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased 8.7% year - on - year and 7.9% month - on - month to about 857,000 tons [12] - Inventory & Spot: As of Thursday, the inventory was 607,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 74,000 tons, down 6,000 tons from last week. The total aluminum rod inventory on Thursday was 157,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from last Thursday. The LME global aluminum inventory was 473,000 tons, down 14,000 tons from last week. The spot premium in East China turned into a discount, and the LME market Cash/3M premium was $3.2 per ton [12] - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a 13.5% month - on - month increase and an 80.0% year - on - year increase. In September, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 521,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease [12] - Demand: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises this week was 62.4%, a slight decrease of 0.1% from last week. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum cable, and aluminum profile increased slightly, while those of aluminum plate and strip, and aluminum foil were weak. It is expected that the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry will remain stable next week [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: SHFE aluminum rose 1.39% to 21,225 yuan per ton this week; LME aluminum rose 2.84% to $2,856.5 per ton. The spread between SHFE aluminum's first - and third - month contracts narrowed [21][27] - Spot: The East China region turned to a discount, the South China region was at par, and the discount in the Central Plains region widened. The LME aluminum Cash/3M premium narrowed [33][37] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared to last week and is at a historical high [42] - Inventory: The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased. As of Thursday, the inventory was 607,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last Thursday; the bonded area inventory was 74,000 tons, down 6,000 tons from last week; the total aluminum rod inventory was 157,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from last Thursday; the LME global aluminum inventory was 473,000 tons, down 14,000 tons from last week and at a multi - year low for the same period [49][52][56] 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained stable [70] - Alumina: The domestic alumina price decreased by 34 yuan per ton compared to last week, and the import price decreased by $6 per ton [73] - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly compared to last week [75] 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In September, the monthly alumina output was 7.746 million tons, a decrease of 132,000 tons from August and a 12.7% year - on - year increase [82] - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with a slight month - on - month increase in operating capacity and industry operating rate. In September, the output decreased 3.2% month - on - month. In October, the operating capacity is expected to continue a slight increase. In September, the overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.499 million tons, a 3.4% month - on - month decrease [85] - Aluminum Water Ratio: In September, the domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded 1.2%, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased 8.7% year - on - year and 7.9% month - on - month to about 857,000 tons. The aluminum rod processing fee decreased compared to last week [88] - Provincial Electrolytic Aluminum Output: In September, the electrolytic aluminum output in each province decreased compared to August, with Shandong's output decreasing by 38,400 tons [93] 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month, while those of aluminum plate and strip, and aluminum foil rebounded. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods rebounded month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded. The price difference between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum alloy widened by 56 yuan per ton to 385 yuan per ton this week [104][107][110] - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in October 2025, the production scheduling of household air conditioners was 1.153 million units, an 18.0% year - on - year decrease with an expanding decline; the production scheduling of refrigerators was 863,000 units, a 5.8% year - on - year decrease with a slightly narrowing decline; the production scheduling of washing machines was 908,000 units, a slight 1.6% year - on - year decrease. The real estate completion data improved slightly, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production scheduling of photovoltaic modules is expected to rebound slightly [114] 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a 13.5% month - on - month increase and an 80.0% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to September were 1.962 million tons, a 18.9% year - on - year increase. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots fluctuated and widened [119] - Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products: In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 521,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative exports from January to September were 4.516 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year decrease [126] - Recycled Aluminum: In September 2025, China's recycled aluminum imports were 155,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons month - on - month and a 17.7% year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports from January to September were 1.501 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [126] - Bauxite: In September 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.881 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 74.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to September were 157.305 million tons [129] - Alumina: In September 2025, China's alumina exports were 246,000 tons, a 36.7% month - on - month increase and an 82.2% year - on - year increase. The cumulative alumina exports from January to September were 1.999 million tons [129]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing a strong support due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand, with expectations of a fluctuating but generally strong trend in aluminum prices moving forward [1][6]. Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures reached a peak of 21,205 yuan/ton on October 10, marking a nearly 11-month high, but quickly retreated due to insufficient driving forces [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with resistance at 21,130 yuan/ton and support at 20,650 yuan/ton [6]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.18% [3]. - The aluminum water ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 76.3%, leading to a decrease in cast ingot production by 8.67% to 857,000 tons [3]. - As of October 13, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets was 642,000 tons, a slight increase from October 9 but down 4,000 tons year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The average fully loaded cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum in September was 16,488 yuan/ton, down 1.37% month-on-month and 6.58% year-on-year [4]. - The total cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline in October, with an estimated range of 15,800 to 16,200 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Automotive Industry Impact - The automotive market showed positive trends in September, with production and sales reaching 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, marking month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9% [5]. - New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new car sales in September, indicating strong growth in this segment [5]. - The automotive sector is expected to continue growing, supported by favorable policies and increased supply of new products, despite external uncertainties [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights the resurgence of tariffs between China and the U.S., suggesting an increased allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Precious metals continue to show strength, with silver spot prices reflecting insufficient upward momentum, indicating potential risks of a pullback amid trade disputes [1][2] - The long-term trend of de-dollarization is expected to persist, coupled with inflows into ETFs due to short-term interest rate cuts, supporting a positive outlook for the precious metals sector [1][2] Group 2 - Copper prices are anticipated to rise due to supply disruptions, with recent production guidance cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources enhancing the likelihood of a reversal in the global electrolytic copper balance by 2026 [2] - The aluminum market is also waiting for a buying opportunity following recent price increases, with inventory levels showing expected increases without exceeding forecasts [2] - Cobalt prices have surged significantly, with expectations for continued price increases in 2026-2027 due to a projected supply-demand gap of 20,000 to 30,000 tons next year [3][4] Group 3 - Recent export controls on rare earth materials by Chinese authorities are expected to exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, potentially leading to a new upward trend in rare earth prices [4] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as Northern Rare Earth, Baotou Steel, and Huayou Cobalt, among others, for investment opportunities in the precious metals and rare earth sectors [5]