消息面 澳大利亚峡谷资源公司(Canyon Resources)宣布，其位于喀麦隆阿达马瓦省的旗舰项目Minim Martap铝土矿已完成多项关键筹备工作，按计划将于 2026年2月正式启动采矿作业，首批铝土矿预计于同年6月启运。 当前铝现实端较弱，铝价高企，抑制下游采买情绪，现货交投疲软，铝锭库存连续累库。铝价上涨以炒作预期为主导，缺乏供需端实质性基本面 支撑，在现实端需求转弱、库存去化乏力的背景下，需警惕市场炒作情绪退潮导致的回调风险，后续择机布局空单更具性价比与稳健性。外围市 场，黄金白银显偏空信号，伦铜已涨至重要阻力位，可考虑分批买看跌期权，兼具稳健和收益。 机构观点 正信期货： 短期盘面冲高回落，上方压力加大，考虑到前期上涨幅度较大，多头存有止盈需求，以及下游对高价的负反馈有爆发风险，预计见顶概率加大， 同时鉴于当下波动率仍处于高位，且资金未有明显离场行为，盘面价格后续可能会有反复，当下建议多单择机止盈或做备兑策略，不建议追高， 可等待盘面回调消化本次上涨之后再择机布局中长期多单。 1月4日，电解铝锭库存68.4万吨，环比增加2.4万吨；国内主流消费地铝棒库存15.35万吨，环比增加1.45万吨。 ...

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：公司铝原材料主要从哪里来，是否有一定的控制关 系？ 鑫铂股份（003038.SZ）12月16日在投资者互动平台表示，目前公司的原材料来源分为两部分，一部分 从铝棒企业外购，一部分由公司再生铝板块通过购买废铝生产出的铝棒供应给各业务板块。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：承压运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22275 | -70 | | 410 | 1030 | 1505 | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22120 | - | | l | - | । | | | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2887 | | -14 | -2 | 17 | 284 | | | | | | | | ...

2025.12.8-12.12 电解铝 期货品种周报 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 上周策略回顾 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 本周策略建议 持有足量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 下周美联储12月降息落地后市场或有小幅修正，但在全球供应严重缺乏弹性 +储能金属题材预期+历史低位库存+历史低位的铝铜比价等因素支撑下，铝 价偏强格局预计延续。 2 【总体观点】 | | 2025年12月第1周 | | --- | --- | | | 根据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后 | | 铝土矿市场 | 续总体供应稳中有增。本周由于氧化铝亏损加重，采购迟疑导致进口矿价格有所回落，不过据钢联 | | | 调研，12月份待售现货全部售出海漂现货市场较为收紧。 | | | 截止12月6日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9650万吨（上周9740万吨），产能利 | | | 用率约86.2%，据Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约144 ...

仲钨酸铵、铝棒——大宗商品热点解读 20251204 摘要 铝棒加工费普遍下跌，佛山地区跌幅近 20%，主因货源充足、下游需求 疲软及库存高企，尤其建材品类竞争激烈，需求不足难以支撑高加工费。 2025 年电解铝价格受海外政策、关税、国内库存、成本及国际局势等 多重因素影响，华东和华南地区预计同比上涨 3%以上。关注美联储降 息和中国消费政策。 2025 年金属镁价格同比下跌约 9%，因需求疲弱和供应充足；金属硅价 格同比下跌 24%，创历史新低。预计 2026 年金属镁和金属硅市场仍将 低位震荡。 截至 2025 年底，中国新增铝棒产能约 2,900 万吨，主要分布在广西、 福建等地，与电解铝产能匹配。预计未来几年新增产能将持续投产，总 体增速约为 3%。 房地产市场低迷拖累建筑用铝需求，但新能源汽车和光伏产业发展弥补 了部分缺口，汽车行业生产量和出口量显著增长，带动高质量铝材需求。 中美欧贸易摩擦及出口退税政策调整抑制中国出口，1-10 月出口减少约 2%，主要体现在房地产相关建材领域。新能源汽车及光伏产业成为出口 增长点。 预计 2026 年电解铝现货均价将在 2.13 万元左右，新兴产业需求将持续 增 ...

需期货有限公司 2025年12月02日 C Futures Company Limited 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 二、电解铝 三、铝合金 一、氧化铝 (1) 12月2日SMM AOD均价21710元/吨:环比-20元/吨;升贴水为-50元/ （1）12月2日保太ADC12价格为20900元/吨; 环比持平; (1) 12月2日国产矿价格为509元/吨,环比0元/吨;2日几内亚进口矿价 (2) 12月2日生铝精废价差为1669元/吨,环比-30元/吨;2日型材铝精废 吨,环比0元/吨; 格71美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 12月2日电解铝冶炼利润为5284元/吨,环比-246元/吨; 价差2421元/吨,环比-30元/吨; (2) 12月2日现货价格指数为2826元/吨,环比-3元/吨; (3) 12月2日期货库存为64198吨,环比-29吨; (3) 12月2日期货库存为66833吨,环比0吨; (3) 12月2日期货库存253612吨,环比0吨; (4) 12月2日铝进口盈亏为-2006元/吨,环比-13元/吨; (4) 12月2日进口盈亏为-375元/吨,环比-15元/吨; (4) 12月2日进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices both at home and abroad rose and then fell. Economic data strengthened the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December. Global visible inventories are in a state of accumulation and close to recent high levels, which may restrict future copper prices. Without unexpected events, copper prices will show a high - level oscillation, with low volatility. Attention should be paid to the performance of overseas financial markets and internal and external inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased and short - term support for aluminum prices exists, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious. Considering the cost support, one can consider bottom - fishing and waiting for favorable factors, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: US economic data shows mild inflation and a possible worsening employment situation, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts and BC copper decreased. The downstream acceptance of high - priced copper has improved, and overall demand is slowly recovering. However, high inventories may restrict copper prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures prices all declined. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot of aluminum ingots was at par or at a discount. The processing fees of some aluminum products were stable or decreased. With the decline in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, the macro - sentiment turned cautious. Although the出库 of aluminum ingots has increased, there are still restrictions on the upside [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel rose. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, and the raw material support for the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain weakened. The inventory of stainless steel increased. Although the raw material end of the new energy industry chain is tight, the ternary precursor in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is large, and one can consider bottom - fishing based on cost support [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 25, 2025, the price of flat - water copper increased by 375 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2851 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5905 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts of SHFE lead decreased by 902 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3869 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.8 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.6 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 843 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 778 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 12 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged. The social inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons, and the registered warehouse receipts of SHFE decreased by 822 tons, while those of LME increased by 600 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.7%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 29 tons, and the registered warehouse receipts increased by 209 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are given [20][22][24]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are presented [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a science master's degree, serves as the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and is a senior precious metals researcher. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won many awards [46]. - **Wang Heng**: He has a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: She has a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK. She is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [47].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has launched a pricing section for aluminum products on its comprehensive business platform, specifically for the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center [1][2] - Guangxi is a significant production base for aluminum in China, with a complete industrial chain from bauxite to recycled aluminum [1] - The Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center aims to enhance trading channels and risk management for local aluminum enterprises [2] Group 1 - The initial quoted products include alumina, aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, and casting aluminum alloys, with designated delivery warehouses across Guangxi and Guangdong [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center has achieved a total transaction volume of 7.51 million tons and has 857 registered users [1] - The trading center facilitates the connection between the regional spot market and SHFE's aluminum futures market, allowing enterprises to reference futures prices for better pricing strategies [2] Group 2 - The SHFE has already launched 20 types of standard warehouse receipt trading and is focused on integrating futures and spot markets to support high-quality economic development [2] - The collaboration between SHFE and the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center is expected to enhance the financial services available to the aluminum industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch a pricing section for aluminum trading at the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center starting from November 21, 2025, which will include aluminum ingots, alumina, casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum bars [1] Group 1 - The launch date for the new pricing section is set for November 21, 2025 [1] - The types of products to be quoted include aluminum ingots, alumina, casting aluminum alloys, and aluminum bars [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - Xinxu (XXC) is headquartered in Wuhu, Anhui, and plans to issue 1.5 million shares at a price range of $4 to $5 per share, aiming to raise between $6 million and $7.5 million [1][3] - EvoNexus (EVON) is based in Hong Kong and intends to issue 2 million shares at a price of $4 per share, targeting to raise $8 million [1][5] Group 2: Business Operations - Xinxu specializes in the research, manufacturing, processing, sales, and distribution of copper and copper alloy products, with core products including T2 red copper rods, T2 tin-plated copper rods, electrolytic copper, and aluminum rods, primarily used in electronics, telecommunications, automotive, air conditioning, and shipping industries [3] - EvoNexus focuses on developing mobile applications that emphasize social and entertainment aspects to facilitate cross-language and cultural communication [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - For the six months ending December 31, 2024, Xinxu reported revenue of $66.48 million, up from $49.26 million in the same period last year, with a net profit of $1.5 million compared to a loss of $290,000 in the previous year [3] - For the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, EvoNexus reported revenue of $11.57 million, an increase from $11.01 million the previous year, with a net profit of $930,000 compared to a loss of $590,000 in the prior year [5]