交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（8.18~8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 上周回顾 沪铝周评： 沪铝上周震荡调整下跌，上周主力合约下跌0.67%，周五收盘报20630元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能， 国内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税。国内 基本面上，需求进入淡季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存478725吨，较前周出现小幅减少，SHFE周库存 增3952吨至124605吨。 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | -- ...

电解铝下游加工及终端消费旺季前瞻 20250822 摘要 铝棒加工费持续走低，7 月华东、华南地区环比下跌超 30%，产能利用 率降至 43.75%，但 8 月订单企稳，库存去化，业者对"金九银十"预 期乐观，预计 9 月产能利用率小幅提升。 铝型材企业建成产能超 1,000 万吨，运行率约 50%。建筑型材受房地 产市场低迷影响大，占比持续下降，从 2019 年的 70%以上降至 2024 年的 45.7%，工业型材需求相对稳定。 房地产市场持续下行，1-7 月房地产开发投资同比下降 12%，新开工面 积减少 19.4%，竣工面积减少 16.5%，导致前七个月房地产用铝量同 比减少 35.3 万吨。 为应对国内市场困境，部分铝型材企业积极拓展出口，出口货款回款周 期短且利润丰厚，沿海工厂出口比重已达 50%以上，但需警惕国际贸易 摩擦及绿色铝等政策带来的挑战。 新能源用铝需求增长显著，光伏和新能源汽车领域成为重要增长点。 2025 年上半年新增光伏装机容量同比增长超 99%，1-7 月新能源汽车 产销同比增长超 38%，但铝加工企业面临光伏补贴取消、产能扩张及车 企合作门槛等挑战。 Q&A 当前铝下游加工各 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty and consistent expectations in the macro - environment remain weak, and market sentiment is easily swayed by changes in interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market at any time, with the long and short sentiments expected to switch back and forth, and the macro - impact volatility remaining large. On the fundamental side, the supply is basically stable, the consumption end is at the transition point between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [3][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased by 12.0 yuan/ton from 2615 on August 8, 2025, to 2603 on August 15, 2025. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three increased by 95.0 dollars/ton from 20610 to 20705 during the same period. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio rose by 0.1 to 8.0. The LME spot premium increased by 4.1 dollars/ton to 1.79. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 8975.0 tons to 479550 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 21592.0 tons. The spot average price rose by 104.0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 50.0 yuan/ton. The South Reserve spot average price increased by 56.0 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased by 48.0 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 5.8 yuan/ton, while the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 109.8 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20694 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the South Reserve spot weekly average price was 20652 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the Sino - US trade negotiation made progress, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut first increased and then decreased. In China, the social financing scale and RMB loans increased in the first seven months of this year. The growth rate of industrial added value in July was 5.7%, and the service industry production index was 5.8%. The consumption and investment growth rates on the demand side declined. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in July was 3.7%. The export year - on - year growth rate was 7.2%. On the consumption side, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In terms of inventory, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 58.8 tons, up 2.4 tons from last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 13.85 tons, down 0.5 tons from last Thursday [5][6][7] 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - environment has high uncertainty, and market sentiment is easily affected by interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market. On the fundamental side, the supply is stable, the consumption end is at the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [8] 3.4 Industry News - Century Aluminum will restart about 57,000 tons of idle capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, with an investment of about 50 million dollars, aiming to increase the local aluminum production in the US by nearly 10%. The plant is expected to reach full production by June 30, 2026, with an annual primary aluminum output of about 730,000 tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. will transfer 580,000 tons of production capacity to Xinjiang, with a planned production start in December 2027. Mozambique's Mozal aluminum plant faces the risk of shutdown due to power issues, and the company is communicating to ensure power supply after March 2026 [9] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, spot premium seasonality, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonality, and aluminum rod inventory seasonality [10][11][14][15][16]

电解铝 ：海外降息预期反复 铝库存渐至峰值支撑铝价 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 宏观：（1）美国7月PPI同比涨幅从前月的2.3%飙升至3.3%，为今年2月以来最高水平，并且远超预期的2.5%，美国7月PPI环比0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅。数据公 布后，交易员减少了对美联储将在9月降息的押注。（2）美国对等关税延期到期前与更多国家/地区达成协议，但与日本及印度的税率或仍有分歧；印度2024-25财年（截至 2025年3月）铝产量为383.6万吨，美国与印度间关税问题引发铝市场的关注。（3）据俄新社14日报道，俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫当天表示，俄美总统将于莫斯科时间15日 22时30分（北京时间16日凌晨3时30分）与美国开始举行会晤，地点是美国阿拉斯加州最大城市安克雷奇。 产业供应：8月预计国内电解铝行业运行产能仍将继续缓慢增加至4430万吨附近，主要增量仍来自安顺铝厂和百色银海两大项目的复产之上。云南宏泰、云南宏合、新疆信发 兵准项目、双元铝业技改扩能项目等置换转移项目也有投产计划，但考虑到新旧产能 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may continue to rise due to overseas mine disruptions and a warming domestic market, despite industry off - season factors. Overall, with positive macro factors, copper prices are expected to remain strong [2][52] - Aluminum prices may continue to rise as the domestic market warms up again, but pay attention to the rhythm as the market has experienced a rise and a correction, and also consider the high - level pressure in July [3][53] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: In July, economic data consistently fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. The expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the US dollar index has continued to decline [7] - Domestic: The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up again [7] - Incident: Codelco in Chile stopped ore processing at its largest copper mine after a fatal tunnel collapse on July 31. The accident is expected to reduce copper production by about 30,000 tons per month, equivalent to a quarter of Codelco's total output [7] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded, with a significant upward movement in the night session on Friday, and the trading volume increased [2][52] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Continue to Decline - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, indicating a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, reflecting an expected tight supply and over - capacity in smelting as the main reasons for low TC [23] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking Slows Down - There is information about the trends of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory (COMEX + LME), showing the situation of inventory changes [30] 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - There is a figure showing the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries, including sectors such as refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper rods, and copper strips [34] 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded, and the trading volume increased [3][53] 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - There are figures showing the inventory of bauxite ports and the price of alumina, reflecting the situation of the upstream industrial chain [40][44] 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - Both overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory show an inventory accumulation trend [43] 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - There are figures showing the capacity utilization rate of aluminum rods, the average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, and the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, reflecting the downstream situation [46][51] 4. Conclusion - Copper: With positive macro factors and an industry off - season, copper prices have stabilized and rebounded and are expected to remain strong [52] - Aluminum: As the domestic market warms up, aluminum prices may continue to rise, but pay attention to the market rhythm and the high - level pressure in July [53]

Group 1 - Xinxu Copper Industry Technology, a Chinese producer of copper and copper alloy products, announced its IPO terms, planning to issue 1.5 million shares at a price range of $4 to $5 per share, aiming to raise $7 million [1] - The midpoint of the proposed price range suggests a market capitalization of $97 million for Xinxu Copper Industry Technology [1] - The company, established in 2017, reported a revenue of $123 million for the 12 months ending December 31, 2024, and plans to list on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol XXC [1] Group 2 - Xinxu Copper Industry Technology primarily engages in the research, manufacturing, processing, sales, and distribution of copper and copper alloy products, including T2 red copper rods, T2 tin-plated copper rods, T2 copper rods, electrolytic copper, and aluminum rods [1] - Craft Capital Management and R.F. Lafferty & Co. are serving as the joint book-running managers for this transaction [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price center of aluminum is moving downward, alumina is experiencing continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy prices are following those of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,510, down 250 from a week ago and up 155 from a month ago. The trading volume was 127,617, a decrease of 17,683 from the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,572, down 60 from a week ago [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,162, down 60 from the previous day and 266 from a week ago. The trading volume was 275,347, a decrease of 105,822 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,920, down 30 from the previous day and 215 from a week ago. The trading volume was 2,098, an increase of 19 from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from a week ago. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 3,790.34, a decrease of 39.92 from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,274, unchanged from the previous day and up 19 from a week ago. The profit of Shanxi alumina enterprises was 294, a decrease of 38 from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -249, unchanged from the previous day and up 59 from a week ago. The price of Baotai ADC12 was 19,500, down 100 from the previous day and 200 from a week ago [1]. Other Information - In June, China's imports and exports, exports, and imports all achieved positive year - on - year growth. The import increased by 1.1% and the export increased by 5.8% in US dollars. The export of industrial robots increased by 61.5% in the first half of this year [3].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the report's investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US-Japan tariff agreement and progress in EU-US trade negotiations, overseas risk aversion declined. In the domestic market, the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology eliminating old production capacity boosted market sentiment, which needed to be repaired later in the week. In terms of fundamentals, most recent capacity changes in the supply side were replacements, with a small amount of capacity resuming production in Guizhou, and the operating capacity increasing slightly by 10,000 tons compared to last week. Downstream, the aluminum processing weekly operating rate continued to decline slightly due to the triple pressures of weak demand in the off - season, high aluminum prices, and tariff uncertainties. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 12,000 tons to 510,000 tons, while the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10,500 tons to 145,500 tons [2]. - This week, there is high uncertainty in the overseas Fed's interest - rate decision and the negotiation process of the expiration of US reciprocal tariffs, with high macro - elasticity. Fundamentally, the operating capacity in the supply side increased slightly. In the consumption side, due to the off - season and high aluminum prices, downstream purchasing slowed down. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, but the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, and the warehouse receipt inventory returned to around 60,000 tons after a short - term increase. Overall, the inventory increase was not very smooth. It is expected that the aluminum price will have a certain repair after last week's sentiment adjustment, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased from 2,638 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2,631 yuan/ton on July 25th, a drop of 7 yuan/ton. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3 increased from 20,375 dollars/ton to 20,660 dollars/ton, a rise of 285 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.9, an increase of 0.1. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.78 dollars/ton to 1.07 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.9 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased from 430,700 tons to 450,825 tons, an increase of 20,125 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 66,548 tons to 54,675 tons, a decrease of 11,873 tons. The spot average price increased from 20,554 yuan/ton to 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The South - storage spot average price increased from 20,538 yuan/ton to 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 16 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 492,000 tons to 510,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 16,669.43 yuan/ton to 16,760.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 91.5 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,884.57 yuan/ton to 4,077.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton [3]. 行情评述 - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton compared to last week. The weekly average price of the South - storage spot was 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton compared to last week [4]. 宏观方面 - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase the import of US rice under the current "minimum access system". The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The South Korea - US "2 + 2" economic and trade consultation scheduled for the 25th was cancelled due to the US side. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, both reaching the highest since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. EU member states voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, pressing the "pause button" on interest - rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service industry PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, both higher than market expectations. The PMI data of Germany and France also rebounded [5][6]. 消费端 - According to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% compared to the previous period. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season. The operating rate of the recycled alloy sector continued to decline, but due to the decline in the aluminum price center, there were differences among different sectors. The weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables increased slightly, driving the marginal improvement of the industry's operating rate. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of the downstream aluminum processing industry will decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% next week [6]. 库存方面 - According to SMM, on July 17th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 行情展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes that after last week's sentiment adjustment, the aluminum price is expected to have a certain repair, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [7]. 行业要闻 - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, the domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 1,249,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of domestic primary aluminum was about 1,163,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. According to SMM, a technical renovation project of an aluminum plant in Guangxi has started to gradually start up electrolytic cells. The first batch of 50,000 tons/year, a total of 84 electrolytic cells, is expected to be fully put into operation next month, and the remaining renovation capacity will be gradually started up within this year [8]. 相关图表 - The report includes various charts such as the price trend of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai Aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][11][15].

Core Insights - The article highlights the efficient closed-loop aluminum production chain in Baotou, showcasing the "aluminum water does not fall to the ground" short-process production line that transforms aluminum water into alloy ingots and bars for the national market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Development - Baotou Aluminum Industry has a historical significance dating back to 1958, being the birthplace of China's first aluminum ingot, and has developed a capacity of 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 60,000 tons of high-purity aluminum, leading the global market in high-purity aluminum production [3][6]. - The city of Baotou aims to establish the aluminum industry as its fourth trillion-yuan industrial cluster by July 2024, with a focus on enhancing collaboration between Baotou Aluminum and downstream enterprises to address transportation and supply challenges [3][6]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The Baotou Aluminum Industry Park is witnessing significant innovation, with companies like Shengtai Manufacturing achieving a 63.8% year-on-year increase in output value, reaching 770 million yuan in 2024, driven by technological advancements [6][8]. - The park has established a light alloy technology center in collaboration with the 52nd Research Institute, fostering 11 innovative enterprises and holding over 300 patents, with a digitalization rate of 77.8% [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Since 2021, 24 key aluminum industry projects have been implemented, increasing the deep processing rate of aluminum from 9% to 42.3%, contributing to an aluminum industry output value of 47.64 billion yuan [6][8]. - The completion of the Huayun Phase III project has raised Baotou Aluminum's total electrolytic aluminum capacity to 1.5 million tons, with 420,000 tons classified as green aluminum, positioning it as the largest green aluminum base for China Aluminum Group [6][8]. Group 4: Sustainability Initiatives - The Baotou Aluminum Industry Park has been recognized as a "National Green Industrial Park," with clean energy accounting for over 40% of its energy consumption, and plans to increase this to over 46% through wind and solar projects [8]. - The park has established five national-level green factories and five autonomous regional green factories, emphasizing its commitment to sustainable development [8].

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a weak performance with prices showing a downward trend, currently fluctuating around 8740.0 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 8770.0 CNY and a minimum of 8585.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.08% [1] - New Lake Futures indicates that the industry fundamentals remain loose with both supply and demand increasing, but inventory absorption is still weak, leading to limited price upside and continued pressure on prices [1] - Hualian Futures notes an increase in the number of industrial silicon furnaces last week, while downstream demand for aluminum alloys is weakening, resulting in a standoff between supply and demand, with high prices not being accepted by the market [1] Group 2 - Jianxin Futures reports that industrial silicon production continues to exceed 70,000 tons, with monthly output expected to remain above 310,000 tons, driven by recovery in the Southwest production area [2] - Demand for polysilicon is projected to increase to 100,000-110,000 tons in July, but overall monthly demand growth is insufficient, with an increase of less than 20,000 tons [2] - The futures warehouse receipts are beginning to increase, and there is a positive expectation from industrial policies, leading to a short-term strong oscillation in the market [2]