1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, alumina is expected to be weak first and then stable. In April, the concentrated arrival of imported alumina and the launch of new production capacity in Guangxi will put pressure on alumina. From May onwards, the tightening of Guinea's ore - end policies will gradually take effect. After the industry's profits turn negative, the new production will slow down comprehensively, and the market is expected to stop falling. There is a risk of an over - fall rebound due to unexpected production cuts caused by domestic losses. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline first and then rise. In early April, the geopolitical impact in the Middle East is dominant, and demand has not fully recovered. With the different inventory trends at home and abroad, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets cannot be quickly reversed. In late April, the peak - season effect will gradually increase, and the inflection point of domestic inventory reduction will appear. Domestic funds are ready, and it is time for domestic prices to follow the upward trend. After May, with domestic consumption - stimulating policies and the expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, prices are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, the actual realization of downstream demand, and the dynamics of the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - In the first quarter, the alumina futures fluctuated strongly. As of March 27, the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 8.9%. The Shanghai aluminum futures also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 24020 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 7.2%. The aluminum alloy futures also showed a strong upward trend, with the main contract closing at 22810 yuan/ton and an overall increase of 6.64% [6][8][10]. - In the first quarter, the spot discount of alumina widened from 59 yuan/ton to 286 yuan/ton. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum narrowed from 210 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread narrowed from 80 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Supply - **Alumina**: In the first quarter, the domestic production of metallurgical - grade alumina was 21.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The operating capacity decreased to 86.24 million tons, and the operating rate decreased to 78.2%. Domestically, the supply of domestic ore has slightly improved, and the import of ore has continued to increase. New production capacity is about to be launched in Guangxi, while production in Shanxi and Guizhou has decreased, and manufacturers in Henan have resumed production after maintenance. Abroad, due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East, Iran has made preventive production cuts, Qatar Aluminum has shut down 40% of its production, and Bahrain Aluminum has shut down three production lines [4][6]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: In the first quarter, the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum was 11.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The operating capacity increased to 44.3 million tons, the operating rate increased to 96.6%, and the aluminum - water ratio decreased to 64.4%. Some overseas aluminum plants have production changes. For example, the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozambique aluminum plant has been shut down due to the failure to reach an agreement on the power contract, while the 50,000 - ton idle capacity of the Mt. Holly aluminum plant is expected to resume production in April and reach full production by the end of the second quarter; the Icelandic aluminum plant will resume production at the end of April and reach full production by the end of July. Domestic and Indonesian projects are ramping up production, and the daily output of electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase at a high level [4][6]. 3.3 Demand - In the first quarter, the orders in March were diluted by the Spring Festival holiday. The overall start - up was stable, but there were significant structural differences. The average start - up rate in the first quarter was 59.69%, a 2.11% decrease from the previous quarter and a 0.83% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of plates, strips, and foils was relatively weak compared with the same period last year, while the start - up of cables increased significantly, providing support. The average value of the downstream comprehensive processing PMI from January to February was 40.8, a decrease of 6.34 from the previous quarter and a decrease of 11.7 year - on - year. It is expected that there will be room for growth in April. The processing fees of aluminum rods have increased across the board by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the processing fees of aluminum bars have increased in Wuxi and Baotou by 90 - 130 yuan/ton and decreased in Xinjiang, Henan, Linyi, and Guangdong by 20 - 170 yuan/ton [4][6]. 3.4 Inventory - **Exchange inventory**: In the first quarter, the alumina inventory in the exchange increased by 162,000 tons to 284,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 324,000 tons to 454,600 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 88,700 tons to 423,000 tons. - **Social inventory**: In the first quarter, the alumina social inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 235,000 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 689,000 tons to 1.349 million tons; the aluminum bar inventory increased by 202,500 tons to 341,500 tons [4][7]. 3.5 Capacity - **Domestic alumina capacity**: There are large increments in new projects, increasing the over - supply pressure. The total planned capacity of new domestic alumina projects is 41.2 million tons, with 14.1 million tons put into production in 2025, 4.6 million tons in 2026, and 14.3 million tons in 2027 and beyond [67]. - **Overseas alumina capacity**: The new planned capacity is limited, and all are supporting capacities for electrolytic aluminum. The total planned capacity of new overseas alumina projects is 14.4 million tons, with 2.6 million tons put into production in 2025, 1.4 million tons in 2026, and 10.4 million tons in 2027 and beyond [68][69]. - **Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity**: The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacities and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned capacity of new domestic electrolytic aluminum projects is 5.77 million tons, with 1.53 million tons put into production in 2025 and 1.11 million tons in 2026 [70]. - **Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity**: There are regional differences and a lag in the rhythm. The new capacity is concentrated in Southeast Asia and other regions. The total new capacity expected to be put into production in 2026 is 1.9 million tons [71]. 3.6 Global Supply - Demand - Overseas alumina has changed from surplus to shortage. From January to February, the production of overseas alumina and primary aluminum was 9.71 million tons and 4.8 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and 0.4% [91]. - It is expected that in the second quarter, the surplus pattern of alumina will intensify; after the marginal reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory, the supply - demand pattern will improve [92][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro environment is bearish, and Shanghai Aluminum is weak; there is an expectation of a reduction in bauxite supply [1] - Shanghai Aluminum is weak, but downstream purchasing sentiment is good. However, social inventories are high, and discounts are under pressure [15] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - This week, the center of the Shanghai Aluminum futures price has significantly declined [8] - The spread between the April and May contracts of Shanghai Aluminum has slightly increased week-on-week; the LME Aluminum 0 - 3M premium has strengthened this week [11] 02 Fundamental Data - Cost factors are driving up the price of imported ores [18] - Guinea is discussing with mining companies to control the supply of ores [23] - The monthly spread of alumina is under pressure [24] - Domestic alumina inventories are still increasing [27] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic alumina has decreased by 0.5 tons to 1.78 million tons [29] - The import window for alumina has opened [30] - Domestic alumina inventories have increased by 64,000 tons to 5.834 million tons [34] - The room for improvement in the utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited [38] - According to Steel Union, the weekly output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has remained flat at 859,700 tons [39] - Aluminum imports are at a premium [41] - This week, electrolytic aluminum spot inventories are still increasing and are at a high level year-on-year, while aluminum rod spot inventories are decreasing [44] - LME aluminum inventories have decreased week-on-week [47] - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum products has increased week-on-week [51] - During the traditional consumption peak season in March, downstream demand has been released [56] - From January to February in China, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year [57] - Last week, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities increased week-on-week but decreased year-on-year [61] - The production plan for household air conditioners in March is 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [62] - The production plan for refrigerators in March is 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [65] - The production plan for washing machines in March is 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the actual performance of the same period last year [66] - From March 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 28% year-on-year [69] - This week, the domestic component inventory has slightly increased. The conflict in the Middle East has affected transportation and demand [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The ongoing Middle East conflict and the planned maintenance of the Mozambique aluminum smelter by South32 pose significant threats to overseas aluminum supply. Overseas low inventories and strong spot prices are expected to continue. In China, the downstream operating rate is rising, the proportion of molten aluminum has returned to a relatively normal level, and with the decline in aluminum prices and the widening import losses, inventories are expected to peak and decline. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is expected to be between 24,500 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 3,350 - 3,580 US dollars/ton [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. It is expected to rise in March. The proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase this week. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, the 40% production cut of Qatar Aluminum due to the Middle East conflict and the restricted raw material supply in the Middle East will bring significant disturbances to electrolytic aluminum production in the region, and the growth rate of overseas electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decline [12]. - **Inventory & Spot**: On March 12, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons. Bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. On March 13, LME aluminum inventory was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. The spot discount of East China aluminum ingots fluctuated, and the LME market Cash/3M maintained a premium [12]. - **Import and Export**: From January to February 2026, the export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products were 541,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 16.1% respectively. The cumulative export from January to February was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. This week, the import loss of Shanghai aluminum spot widened [12]. - **Demand**: According to SMM research, in the first week after the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9%. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum rods increased significantly, while the operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable. Recently, the decline in high - frequency real estate transaction data compared with last year has narrowed, and the photovoltaic production schedule is expected to be slightly better [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. Shanghai aluminum rose 0.99% to 24,960 yuan/ton during the week (as of Friday afternoon's close), and LME aluminum rose 0.23% to 3,439 US dollars/ton. The near - month contract was relatively strong, and the discount between the first - and third - month contracts narrowed [21][25]. - **Spot Market**: The spot discount of aluminum ingots in various regions fluctuated and narrowed, and the spot basis in East China increased. The LME aluminum Cash/3M maintained a premium [29][39]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The smelting profit of primary aluminum remained at a high level, maintaining a historical high [46]. - **Inventory**: On March 12, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons; aluminum rod inventory was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. On March 13, LME global aluminum inventory was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons, still at a multi - year low. In February 2026, the proportion of aluminum from India in LME aluminum ingot inventory increased to 36.2%, and the proportion of aluminum from Russia increased to 59.8% [49][53][56][59]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices were stable, and overseas bauxite prices rebounded [64]. - **Alumina Price**: Domestic alumina prices fluctuated and rebounded, and imported alumina prices rebounded slightly [69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: Anode prices remained stable, and thermal coal prices declined [74]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In February 2026, the operating capacity of alumina decreased month - on - month, and the monthly output decreased by 10.5% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year [79]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. It is expected to rise in March, with a year - on - year increase of about 2.8%. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, the production cut of Qatar Aluminum due to the Middle East conflict and the planned maintenance of the Mozambique electrolytic aluminum plant by South32 are expected to lead to a decline in the production growth rate [82]. - **Molten Aluminum Proportion**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase this week. In February 2026, the domestic molten aluminum proportion decreased by 7.7 percentage points month - on - month to 64.4%. In March, with the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises, the molten aluminum proportion is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points month - on - month [85]. - **Provincial - Level Production of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum production of each province decreased month - on - month compared with January [88]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output**: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. As of March 9, the daily aluminum ingot delivery volume was 95,000 tons, which increased month - on - month but was still lower than the same period last year [92]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In February 2026, the operating rate of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and plate - strip - foil was weak. The operating rate of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year. The operating rate of aluminum rods weakened seasonally. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed month - on - month [95][99][103][108]. - **Terminal Demand**: In March 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners decreased by 6.1% compared with the actual output of the same period last year, the production schedule of refrigerators increased by 1.6%, and the production schedule of washing machines decreased by 3.4%. The decline in high - frequency real estate transaction data compared with last year has narrowed, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules in March increased month - on - month [111]. 3.7 Import and Export - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. The import loss of aluminum ingot spot widened [116]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: From January to February 2026, the export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products were 541,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 16.1% respectively. The cumulative export from January to February was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% [123]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 194,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [123]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's bauxite import volume was 14.673 million tons, and the proportion of imported ore was 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite import from January to December was 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina export was 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina export from January to December was 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of March, affected by the Middle East conflict, price fluctuations increased. The supply risk in the Middle East region has not been eliminated, and the planned shutdown and maintenance of South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter are expected to keep the supply tight, with a stronger expectation of tight overseas supply. As domestic downstream industries gradually resume production, the expected increase in the domestic molten aluminum ratio will relieve the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is expected to be between 23,800 - 26,000 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M is expected to be between 3,200 - 3,500 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year-on-year and decreased by 8.9% month-on-month. In March, production is expected to increase with a year-on-year growth of about 2.8%. The domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 7.7 percentage points in February and is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points in March. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by about 2.5% year-on-year in February. In March, production growth is expected to decline due to the shutdown of Qatar Aluminum and the maintenance of South32's Mozambique aluminum smelter [12][84]. - **Inventory & Spot**: As of March 5, aluminum ingot inventory reached 1.27 million tons, an increase of about 417,000 tons compared to early February. Bonded area inventory was 47,000 tons, an increase of about 4,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory totaled 398,000 tons, an increase of 121,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots narrowed, and the LME market Cash/3M spread strengthened [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: Since February, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports has been expanding. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.5% and a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0% [12]. - **Demand**: In February, the operating rate of primary aluminum processing enterprises weakened seasonally. In March, the operating rate rebounded with some differentiation. In March, the production schedule of photovoltaic modules increased, while the high-frequency data of the real estate and automotive industries were weak. The decline in the production schedule of the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines) narrowed, with production compared to the same period last year decreasing by 6.1%, increasing by 1.6%, and decreasing by 3.4% respectively [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: In February 2026, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract fell 2.95% to 23,835 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M slightly increased by 0.19% to 3,141 US dollars/ton. At the beginning of March, due to the Middle East conflict, aluminum supply disruptions increased, and aluminum prices soared [22]. - **Term Spread**: In February, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded. Against the background of the traditional off - season, the term spread weakened [27]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared to early February. The spot premium/discount in East China was slightly weaker than in previous years [30]. - **Regional Premium/Discount Spread**: In February, the East China spot strengthened relatively [35]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: The LME Aluminum Cash/3M spread strengthened, and at the beginning of March, the spot and the 3 - month contract were nearly flat [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: In February, the primary aluminum smelting profit declined and then increased at the beginning of March, reaching a historical high [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: As of March 5, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.27 million tons, an increase of about 417,000 tons compared to early February; bonded area inventory was 47,000 tons, an increase of about 4,000 tons; aluminum rod inventory totaled 398,000 tons, an increase of 121,000 tons. The combined inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by about 538,000 tons compared to early February. LME aluminum inventory was 459,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons, still at a relatively low level in recent years [51][54][57]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: In February, domestic bauxite prices remained stable, while overseas bauxite prices declined slightly [65]. - **Alumina Price**: In February, domestic alumina prices stabilized, and imported alumina prices continued to be weak [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: In February, anode prices declined, and thermal coal prices increased month - on - month [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In January 2026, alumina monthly production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating rate remained at around 81% [81]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. In March, production is expected to increase with a year - on - year growth of about 2.8%. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, production growth is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict [84]. - **Molten Aluminum Ratio**: In February, the aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and increased. At the beginning of March, the sharp increase in aluminum prices once led to a negative aluminum rod processing fee. In February 2026, the domestic molten aluminum ratio decreased by 7.7 percentage points to 64.4%. In March, as downstream industries resume production, the molten aluminum ratio is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points [87]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Products Production**: In December 2025, China's aluminum products production was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the cumulative production from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Since February, the aluminum ingot出库 volume has weakened seasonally [94]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In February 2026, China's aluminum rod production was 1.092 million tons, and the cumulative production in the first two months decreased by about 4.5% year - on - year; the operating rate in February was 41.4%, significantly lower than the same period last year. In January 2026, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February was weak; the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month in January and remained high in February. In January 2026, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February continued to be higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of aluminum rods increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year in January, and the operating situation in February was relatively good. In January 2026, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and the operating rate in February decreased seasonally, and is expected to return to normal in March. In February, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed month - on - month [97][101][105][108]. - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule report of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in March 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The high - frequency data of real estate and automobile sales were weak, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules increased month - on - month in March [112]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot Imports**: In February, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports fluctuated, and at the beginning of March, the import loss expanded. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the import volume from Russia increasing to 76% [117][121]. - **Aluminum Products Exports**: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December 2025, the import volume of recycled aluminum was 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [124]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with an import ratio of 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [127].

Summary of Conference Call Transcript Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the aluminum industry, particularly focusing on the company’s various segments including 3C consumer materials, automotive lightweight materials, aluminum rod and cable, aluminum bar, and strip foil segments [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 3C Consumer Materials - Benefiting from strong iPhone 17 sales, the 3C consumer materials segment is expected to maintain high demand in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 and into 2026, with growth in production, sales, and profits [2][3]. - The segment's processing fees are gradually increasing, but specific data is confidential [5]. Automotive Lightweight Materials - The automotive lightweight segment is projected to reduce losses in 2025, with significant improvements from the Suzhou Chuangtai factory, and is expected to achieve profitability in 2026 [2][3]. - The Inner Mongolia project is currently underperforming due to BMW model sales but is anticipated to significantly reduce losses by 2027 [2][3]. Aluminum Rod and Cable - Growth in the aluminum rod and cable segment is expected to be below the previously anticipated 20%-30% in 2025 due to rising aluminum prices affecting downstream procurement [3][4]. - The segment is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, driven by order acquisition and quality control improvements [3][11]. Aluminum Bar Segment - A slight decrease in production is expected in 2026 due to capacity shifts from Shandong to Yunnan, resulting in a reduction of approximately 100,000 tons [4]. - Processing fees for aluminum bars show structural differences, with photovoltaic aluminum bars around 300 CNY/ton and automotive lightweight aluminum bars increasing from 400 CNY/ton to 600 CNY/ton [5]. Strip Foil Segment - The strip foil segment is expected to perform poorly in 2025 due to the disposal of hot-rolled assets, with production significantly declining [4]. - However, there is an anticipated improvement in Q1 2026, with production capacity reaching near full capacity by February [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its integrated aluminum project in Saudi Arabia, with expectations to produce aluminum water by mid-2027 and achieve full production by the end of that year [3][7]. - The project includes 500,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, with associated processing capacities for aluminum bars and strip foil [7]. Recycling and Sustainability - The company plans to increase its recycled aluminum usage from 1.21 million tons in 2025, with a total capacity expansion from 160,000 tons to 220,000 tons in the coming years [12]. - The recycling process involves three main sources of scrap aluminum, contributing to profitability despite a reduction in aluminum bar volumes [13]. Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, increasing from 22% to 30%, with plans for further increases in the future [14]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the company’s Apple-related materials business is deemed limited, as the supply chain is primarily domestic [15][16]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The aluminum market is experiencing seasonal inventory accumulation, with demand expected to strengthen in automotive lightweight and 3C sectors, while real estate-related demand remains weak [18]. - The aluminum price fluctuated between 23,000 and 24,000 CNY/ton, with a rapid increase in January 2026 leading to reduced procurement by downstream customers [19]. Additional Important Insights - The company is focusing on global expansion, particularly in the Saudi Arabian project, and is establishing a joint research center for industrial robotics with Tsinghua University to drive innovation [4][3]. - The overall economic environment is impacting profit realization, with a noted decline compared to previous years [3]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus and market conditions.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On February 26, the domestic bauxite price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton compared to the previous day [41]. - On February 26, the spot price index was 2,654 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [41]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 26, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium and discount was -175 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 288,287 tons, an increase of 3,112 tons compared to the previous day [3]. - According to Mysteel, on February 26, the aluminum rod processing fee was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 26, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - On February 26, the ADC12 price was 23,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 66,174 tons, a decrease of 907 tons compared to the previous day [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report provides daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain, including prices, inventories, and other indicators for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys. 3. Summary by Directory Alumina - On February 12, the domestic ore price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged [1]. - The spot price index on February 12 was 2646 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 276,825 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [1]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 12, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,991 yuan/ton, an increase of 86 yuan/ton from the previous day; the premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 200,654 tons, an increase of 33,088 tons from the previous day [1]. - The aluminum rod processing fee on February 12 was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 12, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, also unchanged [1]. - The price of ADC12 on February 12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 66,638 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Alumina - On February 10, the domestic ore price was 491 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, also with a 0 US dollars/dry ton change [1] - On February 10, the spot price index was 2,646 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 251,010 tons, a net increase of 8,384 tons compared to the previous day [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 10, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 91 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium/discount was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 166,516 tons, a net increase of 2,004 tons compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the aluminum rod processing fee was 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Aluminum Alloy - On February 10, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, also with a 0 yuan/ton change [1] - On February 10, the ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 67,300 tons, a net decrease of 1,235 tons compared to the previous day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weakening in a fluctuating manner [1] - Alumina: Trading in a range [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - It also provides the trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with aluminum and aluminum alloy at 0 (neutral), and alumina at -1 (weakly bearish) [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum main contract: The closing price was 23,955, down 1685 from T - 5; trading volume was 451,208, down 485,903 from T - 5; open interest was 224,756, down 138,077 from T - 5 [1]. - LME Aluminum 3M: The closing price was 3059, down 205 from T - 5; trading volume was 24,872, down 22,559 from T - 5; LME注销仓单占比 was 11.01%, up 5.90% from T - 5 [1]. Alumina - Shanghai Alumina main contract: The closing price was 2824, up 13 from T - 5; trading volume was 420,118, down 453,523 from T - 5; open interest was 375,698, down 91,018 from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy main contract: The closing price was 22,595, down 1190 from T - 5; trading volume was 8206, down 15,184 from T - 5; open interest was 4530, down 4315 from T - 5 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 82.90 million tons, up 3.30 million tons from T - 5; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 15.03 million tons, up 0.75 million tons from T - 5; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.52 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 7524.75, up 470.00 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The domestic average alumina price was 2646, down 2 from T - 5; the alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 theoretical profit was 380, down 60 from T - 1; the Baotai ADC12 price was 23,200, up 200 from T - 1 [1]. Others - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2275, down 50 from T - 1 [1].