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华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250812
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity and run weakly, and it will be in a state of shock consolidation [2][4] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to run at a high level in the short - term, with short - term shock operation, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and the resumption time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock yesterday, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4] 3.2 Aluminum Ingots - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated within a range. Fed officials are increasingly worried about the labor market and are open to cutting interest rates as early as September. Cooling inflation may strengthen the bet on an interest - rate cut next month, but if there are signs that Trump's tariffs are driving up prices, the Fed may hold off [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the operating output of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. From late June to July, the shipment volume of bauxite from Guinea decreased, and the total import volume is expected to decline starting from August. The increase in domestic bauxite supply is limited [4] - Last week, the start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7%. The primary aluminum alloy continued to recover, but due to weak terminal demand, high aluminum prices and seasonal factors, enterprises were still cautious in production scheduling. The start - up rate of aluminum cables remained stable at 61.8%, supported by grid order deliveries. The start - up rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly to 49.5%, with weak demand in construction and industrial profiles. The start - up rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly to 68.4%, and the industry is expected to continue to shrink. The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%, and the industry's overall start - up rate is under downward pressure [4] - On August 11, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 587,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday and last Monday. Due to uneven arrivals, there were fluctuations in inventory data, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [4] - In the current off - season, inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on the demand side in the off - season limits the upward space. The expectation of interest - rate cuts provides short - term support for prices. Attention should be paid to the promotion of domestic policies, and the aluminum price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with subsequent attention on the inventory - consumption trend [5]