Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range of consolidation [2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Steel - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2]. - Finished steel prices continued to decline, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity moved down, and winter storage was lackluster, providing little price support [2]. Aluminum - On July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. It is expected that the inventory will increase steadily in early July [2]. - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.82 million tons/year, the operating capacity is 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. By the end of June, the alumina inventory in enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2]. - This week, the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% due to factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand [2]. - The better - than - expected US employment data strengthened the expectation that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates early. The market now expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in October and cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of the year, lower than the previous expectation of about 66 basis points [1]. - The current off - season inventory accumulation has emerged, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing has increased, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to move within a range [3].