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铬化工|金属铬价格跳涨,强烈推荐板块投资机遇
中信证券研究· 2025-04-23 00:15
Core Viewpoint - The price of metallic chromium has significantly increased, with a total rise of 100,000 yuan per ton since the beginning of 2025, driven by strong supply and demand dynamics, indicating a potential new cycle of prosperity in the chromium market [1][4][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - On April 18, 2025, the company announced a price increase of 5,000 yuan per ton for metallic chromium, following previous increases of 3,000 and 2,000 yuan on February 10 and March 13, respectively [1][4]. - As of April 21, 2025, the average market price for metallic chromium in China reached 69,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 7,500 yuan per ton since the beginning of 2025 [1][4]. Group 2: Demand Growth - The demand for metallic chromium is rapidly increasing, particularly in high-temperature alloys, special alloy steels, and sputtering targets, benefiting from growth in end-use sectors such as military, aerospace, and gas turbines [2]. - Since 2018, China's metallic chromium production has grown significantly, with exports rising from 6,405 tons in 2018 to 21,770 tons in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% [2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The supply of metallic chromium is concentrated, with high entry barriers in the chromium salt production due to environmental regulations, resulting in no new production qualifications since 2015 [3]. - Major domestic producers with chromium salt capacity include CITIC Jinzhou Metal, Galaxy Chemical, and Zhenhua Co., with a combined market share exceeding 80% [3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The strategic value of metallic chromium is becoming increasingly evident as its applications expand in high-end scenarios, with prices currently at historical lows and expected to continue rising due to favorable supply-demand conditions [6].