振华股份 20260108 摘要 振华股份投资 30 亿元在重庆新建铬盐基地，旨在成为全球单体最大铬 盐厂，提升装置先进性和优化产品结构，资金来源包括政府补偿、搬迁 补贴及公司自由现金流。 新建基地硫酸项目通过液体硫磺制硫酸，副产热蒸汽，降低生产成本并 实现热电联产，提高经济效益，未来将成为余热利用核心，提高生产效 率。 维生素 K3 连产氧化铬绿工艺是振华股份独有技术，将重铬酸钠废料提 纯为高纯度氧化铬绿，用于冶炼金属铬，实现资源最大化利用，提升经 济效益，年产量预计 7.4 万吨。 公司氧化铬绿生产具备规模和技术先发优势，计划年产 7.4 万吨，可制 备约 4.3 万吨金属铬，实际产量将根据市场情况调整，目前正通过再融 资分享该项目。 公司主要产品价格随市场基本面变化及时调整，通常降价迅速，涨价较 慢。12 月大部分化合物价格已达预期，但金属铬因社会库存和低价订单 尚未完全达到预期水平。 维生素 K3 连产氧化铬绿工艺有哪些独特之处？ 维生素 K3 连产氧化铬绿工艺具有独特优势，一吨维生素 K3 大约消耗 10 吨重 铬酸钠，但这些重铬酸钠并不直接附着在维生素 K3 上，而是在反应过程中作 为氧化剂使用后 ...

Q&A 近期金属铬价格在 12 月份有所回落，能否解释一下原因？ 近期金属铬价格的回落主要有几个原因。首先，国家收储的节奏略微比预期慢 一些，为了清理此前囤积的低价库存，一些企业进行了主动降价操作。其次， 四川银河公司在此次国储中仅获得 2000 吨份额，而其实际生产能力可达 1 万 吨，因此为了维持生产和销售，其产品价格有所下降。此外，由于部分企业未 能达到国储收购标准，这些产品流入市场，也导致了价格回落。 金属铬价格评析与后市研判 20260106 摘要 国储收储计划实际签订 1.8 万吨，低于计划量，振华股份获 9,000 吨份 额，部分企业因标准问题导致产品流入市场，对价格产生下行压力。 短期内，四川银河和振华股份的设备检修计划预计将支撑金属铬价格， 国储采购价 64,000 元/吨构成价格底部，预计未来几个月价格在 75,000-80,000 元/吨区间波动。 冶金级氧化铬绿和六价铬需求强劲，前者受益于高温合金领域，后者受 益于液流电池等新兴应用，市场前景看好，预计价格稳中有升。 2026 年全年，预计金属铬价格维持在 75,000-80,000 元/吨，新增产 能与需求同步增长。冶金级氧化铬绿和六 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨振华股份（603067.SH） [Table_Title] 铬盐全球龙头，规模效应逐步提升 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司作为全球铬盐全产业链一体化龙头企业，采取市场份额优先、低成本扩张的发展策略，规 模优势显著，同时清洁化生产技术使其跨越壁垒，一方面不断提高开工率实现铬盐产销增长， 另一方面公司产能即将再次扩张，抬高未来成长上限。铬盐需求增长驱动力从低速增长的革鞣、 电镀、颜料等行业逐渐转向金属铬、高端电镀添加剂等高增长行业，同时铬盐供给扩张受限， 预计供给趋向紧张，行业开启景气周期，公司有望充分受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王呈 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 34 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 振华股份（603067.SH） cjzqdt11111 ...

Summary of Zhihua Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhihua Co. - **Industry**: Chromium production and related chemical compounds Key Points Environmental Approval and Expansion - Zhihua Co. received environmental assessment approval for its sodium dichromate project from the Chongqing Environmental Protection Bureau, marking the first new hexavalent chromium production facility approved since the decentralization of environmental authority in 2016, indicating regulatory recognition of the company's environmental management capabilities and enhancing industry standards [2][5][6] Production and Market Dynamics - The company plans to accelerate the expansion of its metallic chromium production, aiming to increase output from 260,000 tons in 2024 to 290,000 tons in 2025, and further to 330,000 tons in 2026, with a potential maximum capacity of 480,000 tons by 2028 [4][21] - The domestic chromium compound market is highly concentrated, with Zhihua Co. holding over 50% market share, while the metallic chromium market is less concentrated, primarily dominated by Zhihua Co. and CITIC Jinzhou Metal, which together account for less than half of the domestic market [2][15] Pricing and Sales Trends - Recent price increases for key products: metallic chromium prices rose approximately 19,000 CNY per ton since September, while chromium oxide prices increased by 6,000 to 7,000 CNY per ton [3] - The company expects fourth-quarter sales of metallic chromium to be the highest of the year, with price increases contributing to revenue in early 2026 [25][27] Government Support and Compensation - The relocation and expansion project in Chongqing will receive government compensation, structured in two agreements: one for land and buildings, and another for equipment relocation, with expectations of 45% compensation before construction and 50% during the process [9][10] International Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. imposed a 48% tariff on Chinese metallic chromium, leading to a decline in imports in the first nine months of the year, with potential future collaborations with European firms to establish local production facilities in the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts [2][16] Future Market Opportunities - The company aims to leverage its position as a leading global supplier of chromium compounds to expand into overseas markets, particularly in response to increasing demand in Europe and the U.S. [4][18] - The company is also exploring growth in the vitamin K3 sector, where it holds a significant share of global production capacity [24] Production Capacity and Strategy - The company plans to optimize its product mix to adapt to market demand changes, with a focus on increasing production of metallic chromium and related compounds [22] - The strategy includes maintaining a balance between domestic and international sales, with a priority on fulfilling domestic demand before expanding overseas [19][23] Conclusion - Zhihua Co. is positioned for growth through regulatory approvals, strategic expansions, and market adaptations, with a strong focus on environmental compliance and international market opportunities. The company anticipates significant increases in production and sales, driven by both domestic demand and potential international collaborations.

Summary of the Chromium Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the chromium industry, particularly the price trends and supply dynamics of chromium products in 2025 [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Since early 2025, chromium product prices have been rising, especially a significant increase in metal chromium prices at the end of October due to unexpected state reserve purchases leading to supply tightness [1][5]. - **Supply Dynamics**: The second state reserve purchase exceeded expectations, with quantities close to four times the first purchase, causing a supply crunch and subsequent price hikes [5][7]. - **Demand Growth**: There is a notable increase in demand for high-temperature alloys and high-end manufacturing materials, with high-temperature alloy demand growing by 20%-30% [8][17]. - **Regulatory Changes**: The European Union plans to implement a critical raw materials law in 2026, requiring strategic reserves to reach 45% of annual consumption, indicating a global increase in demand for these materials [9][8]. - **Export Tariffs**: South Africa plans to impose a 25% export tax on unprocessed chromium ore, which may increase costs for Chinese chromium salt companies but is expected to have a limited overall impact due to China's market influence [10][11]. - **Chromium Salt Demand**: Chromium salts are primarily used in stainless steel production, which is expected to see stable demand growth [12]. - **Waste Treatment Improvements**: Significant advancements in waste treatment technologies have reduced waste output and eliminated hexavalent chromium, turning waste into valuable raw materials for steel production [13]. - **Environmental Challenges**: Stricter environmental standards pose challenges for smaller companies, potentially leading to production halts or market exits due to high compliance costs [15][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Volatility**: The chromium market has experienced significant price fluctuations throughout 2025, with notable increases in February, March, and October [3][4]. - **Future Supply Outlook**: The global supply of chromium is expected to remain tight, with low inventory levels across the supply chain, affecting the ability of major producers to meet market demand [28][29]. - **Strategic Stockpiling**: The state reserve's large-scale purchases are part of a strategic move to ensure supply security, influenced by international market conditions [7][6]. - **Technological Advancements**: Companies like Zhenhua and Yinhe have adopted new processes that significantly reduce waste and improve environmental compliance, enhancing their competitive edge [13][24]. - **Profitability Trends**: The chromium industry has seen fluctuating profit margins, with potential for improvement as demand increases and supply constraints persist [25][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the chromium industry, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, regulatory changes, and technological advancements.

Core Insights - The chromium salt market has experienced a significant price increase, with a monthly rise of approximately 24% since the fourth quarter of the year [2][4] - Major players like Zhenhua Co. have raised prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of 14,000 yuan/ton, while Sichuan Yinhe Chemical Co. announced a price hike of 5,000 yuan/ton starting November 10 [2][4] - The price surge is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, tightening upstream resources, strict environmental regulations, and rapidly growing downstream demand [2][5] Industry Overview - Chromium is primarily found in the form of chromite, with global resources concentrated in South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Zimbabwe. China accounts for about 45% of the world's chromium salt production [3] - As of November 11, the price of metallic chromium reached 83,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 38% [4] - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to worsen, with projections indicating a shortfall of over 70,000 tons for chromium and 300,000 tons for chromium salts by 2028, representing a gap of over 30% [5] Company Developments - Zhenhua Co. is actively participating in the bankruptcy restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong Group and other companies, investing 200 million yuan to acquire 100% equity post-restructuring [6] - The restructuring aims to enhance Zhenhua's business channels and promote the integration and upgrade of the chromium salt industry towards higher quality and efficiency [6] - Zhenhua Co. is currently the largest producer of chromium chemicals and vitamin K3 globally, positioning itself to capitalize on industry opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The company has been asked about the recent significant price increase of chromium products across various chemical platforms and whether it has any impact on their sales and production capacity [1] - The company confirmed that it sells chromium-related products such as chromium tanning agents, sodium dichromate, and chromium anhydride, and the price increase of these products is expected to enhance the profitability of its chromium salt segment [1] - The company advised stakeholders to refer to its periodic reports for specific production volume details [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The global chromium industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with demand growth at approximately 9% outpacing production growth at around 3%. A projected supply gap of 4% is expected by 2025, increasing to nearly 25% by 2028 [2][5][25]. - Demand for metallurgical-grade chromium, particularly in commercial aviation, gas turbines, and military sectors, is forecasted to grow at rates between 19% and 22% [2][5]. Company Insights - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. is positioned as a global leader in the chromium industry, enhancing profitability through cost control, capacity expansion (increasing sodium dichromate capacity to 350,000 tons, with a long-term goal of 450,000 tons), and acquisitions of competitors [2][6][25]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in AI and aerospace demand, alongside supply-side constraints, leading to a potential revaluation of its stock [2][6]. Key Points on Demand and Supply - The chromium industry is entering a tight balance state, with improved performance during off-peak seasons and earlier price increases during peak seasons. Price hikes are anticipated to start in April 2024 and February 2025, indicating a potential price increase cycle beginning as early as late 2025 [2][7]. - The most constrained segment of the chromium salt industry is the sodium dichromate segment due to strict regulations on chromium slag treatment, which is expected to lead to shortages [2][10]. Price Trends - As of July 29, the price of metallic chromium reached a historical high but has since declined due to tariffs imposed by China on U.S. exports. It is anticipated that prices will enter an upward trend again following trade rebalancing [2][9]. Future Outlook for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in the coming years due to its proactive management, cost reductions, and capacity expansions. The company’s valuation is currently below its actual value, with new applications expected to drive revaluation [2][6][25]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity, with sodium dichromate production expected to reach 300,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 350,000 tons in 2026, and potentially 450,000 tons by 2028 [2][8]. Demand from Key Sectors - The demand for metallic chromium in commercial aviation engines is significant, with each additional 10,000 tons of chromium demand translating to an increase of 40,000 tons in sodium dichromate demand. Boeing and Airbus are experiencing substantial order backlogs, with Boeing's orders increasing by 300% year-on-year [2][15][16]. - The military sector is also driving demand for high-temperature alloys and metallic chromium, with European military spending increasing significantly [2][17]. Global Market Dynamics - China holds a dominant position in the global metallic chromium supply chain, with exports expected to reach historical highs in 2024 despite tariff impacts on U.S. imports. The European market is showing significant demand growth [2][11][21][24]. Risks and Considerations - The downstream industries exhibit cyclical volatility risks, including potential changes in environmental policies and safety production risks that need to be closely monitored [2][25].

Summary of Zhuhua Co. Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Zhuhua Co. - **Industry**: Chromium products, specifically focusing on chromium oxide and alloy additives Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Structure**: The revenue share from chromium oxide has decreased, but the diversification into alloy additives (including metallic chromium and chromium corundum) has compensated for this, optimizing the sales structure [2][3] 2. **Performance in Q3 2025**: Zhuhua Co. achieved a revenue of 410 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, primarily due to internal potential and external integration efforts [3] 3. **Production Challenges**: The production of sodium dichromate decreased due to issues with new equipment at the Chongqing base, leading to inventory buildup [2][6] 4. **Market Recovery**: A market recovery was noted in September, with price increases in October, following a significant rise in demand for metallic chromium [2][6] 5. **Expansion Plans**: The company plans to integrate with Xinjiang Province to enhance resource acquisition, production processes, and market expansion capabilities, aiming to stabilize raw material supply and improve profitability [2][9] 6. **Production Capacity Increase**: Zhuhua Co. is expanding its metallic chromium production line, with new capacity expected to be released gradually from late 2025 to early 2026 [2][10] 7. **Global Market Strategy**: The company is pursuing a global expansion strategy to absorb new production capacity, leveraging its metal supply chain [4][12] 8. **Inventory Management**: The company typically aims for a balance between production and sales, with inventory levels expected to normalize following market recovery [4][15] 9. **Future Supply and Demand**: A tight supply of metallic chromium is anticipated in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, influenced by current market conditions [4][16] 10. **Integration with Xinjiang**: The integration with Xinjiang is expected to enhance production efficiency and market share, with a focus on producing chromium oxide green [2][13] 11. **Chongqing Base Expansion**: The Chongqing base is set to double its production capacity to 200,000 tons of sodium dichromate by Q4 2027, positioning it as the largest single chromium salt facility globally [4][14] 12. **Market Dynamics**: The company is cautious about predicting metallic chromium prices due to market volatility and competition, focusing more on sales volume than price [4][19] 13. **Strategic Adjustments**: The company will continue to adjust its production plans based on market demand and strategic developments [4][18] Additional Important Information - **Price Fluctuations**: The price of metallic chromium has seen significant fluctuations, peaking in June 2025 before experiencing a downturn [7][18] - **Inventory Levels**: As of September, the company had approximately 8,000 tons of sodium dichromate in inventory, primarily concentrated in metallic lines [6][15] - **Regulatory Environment**: The company is navigating regulatory challenges related to its restructuring plans, with a focus on maintaining operational continuity [17]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - **Chromium Salt Demand**: Global chromium salt demand is expected to increase from 930,000 tons in 2024 to 1,310,000 tons by 2028, a growth of 380,000 tons. Zhenhua's production capacity is projected to grow by only 110,000 tons during the same period, leading to a potential capacity shortfall of approximately 250,000 tons by 2028. This is due to restrictions on hexavalent chromium capacity expansion, positioning Zhenhua to benefit from a high prosperity cycle [2][3]. - **Gas Turbine Market Growth**: The global gas turbine market is rapidly expanding, driven by AI demand, renewable energy peak shaving, and grid updates. Deliveries are expected to rise from 30 GW in 2024 to 91.4 GW by 2028, doubling the demand for metallic chromium from 23,000 tons to 49,700 tons [2][6]. - **Commercial Aircraft Shortage**: The global commercial aircraft fleet is aging, with an average age of 14.8 years. GE's commercial engine backlog has increased by 76% to $11.5 billion, with metallic chromium demand in this sector expected to nearly double from 9,800 tons to 19,400 tons by 2028 [2][7]. - **Military and Aerospace Demand**: NATO countries are committing to increase defense spending, leading to a peak in military aviation upgrades and maintenance, alongside strong growth in commercial rocket and aerospace sectors, driving robust demand for metallic chromium [2][8]. Company Insights - **Zhenhua's Market Position**: Zhenhua occupies a significant position in the chromium salt industry, particularly in sodium dichromate production. The company is the largest domestic supplier with a production capacity of 260,000 tons in 2024, followed by Sichuan Yinhe and CITIC Jinzhou [2][9]. - **Production and Sales Balance**: Zhenhua achieved a sales volume of over 7,000 tons in 2024, reaching production-sales balance. The actual delivery volume in Q1 2025 exceeded 2,500 tons, with expectations for further sales growth [2][11]. - **Revenue Projections**: Forecasted revenues for Zhenhua are 4.57 billion yuan, 5.39 billion yuan, and 6.18 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 766 million yuan, 1.005 billion yuan, and 1.334 billion yuan [3][29]. Market Dynamics - **Concentration of Chromium Salt Industry**: The domestic chromium salt industry is highly concentrated, with Zhenhua leading in capacity. The total domestic capacity is approximately 520,000 tons, with Zhenhua's capacity being the largest [2][9]. - **Global Supply Concentration**: The global supply of metallic chromium is concentrated among a few suppliers, with Zhenhua being the largest domestic supplier. The supply chain dynamics indicate that profits will likely flow upstream to the major producers [2][10]. - **Export Growth**: China's exports of metallic chromium and its oxides have significantly increased, with a reported 18% year-on-year growth in unrefined chromium powder exports from January to May 2025 [2][27]. Investment Outlook - **Valuation and Rating**: Zhenhua's current P/E ratios are 13x, 10x, and 8x for the next three years, leading to a maintained buy rating for the company based on its strong market position and growth potential [2][5][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the industry's growth prospects, Zhenhua's strategic positioning, and the anticipated financial performance.