Q&A 2025 年铬市场的价格走势如何？有哪些关键节点和原因？ 铬专家会议：铬产业链涨价解读与展望 20251124 摘要 2025 年初以来，铬产业链产品价格持续上涨，尤其 10 月底金属铬大幅 拉涨，主要受第二次国储收储量远超预期影响，导致供应紧张。 三季度铬产品价格曾因高温季企业减产和国储收储延迟交付而回调，但 10 月因第二次收储超预期迅速反弹，预计短期内大规模收储难再现，但 长期或有小规模补充采购。 全球范围内，高温合金和高端制造对金属材料需求显著增加，高温合金 需求增长 20%-30%。欧洲计划 2026 年实施关键原材料法案，战略储 备需达年消费量 45%。 南非计划对未经加工铬矿征收 25%出口关税，虽会增加中国铬盐企业成 本压力，但可通过产业链传导和中国市场话语权缓解，整体影响有限。 铬盐主要用于不锈钢生产，需求稳定增长。铬产业废渣处理技术显著改 善，无钙焙烧工艺减少废渣产量且不含六价铬，废渣成为钢厂重要原料。 环保标准提升对铬产业小企业带来挑战，高昂的环保成本可能导致停产 或退出市场。龙头企业已能将六价铬排放浓度控制在远低于国家标准的 水平。 金属铬需求增长，预计 2025 年全球产量将 ...

Core Insights - The chromium salt market has experienced a significant price increase, with a monthly rise of approximately 24% since the fourth quarter of the year [2][4] - Major players like Zhenhua Co. have raised prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of 14,000 yuan/ton, while Sichuan Yinhe Chemical Co. announced a price hike of 5,000 yuan/ton starting November 10 [2][4] - The price surge is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, tightening upstream resources, strict environmental regulations, and rapidly growing downstream demand [2][5] Industry Overview - Chromium is primarily found in the form of chromite, with global resources concentrated in South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Zimbabwe. China accounts for about 45% of the world's chromium salt production [3] - As of November 11, the price of metallic chromium reached 83,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 38% [4] - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to worsen, with projections indicating a shortfall of over 70,000 tons for chromium and 300,000 tons for chromium salts by 2028, representing a gap of over 30% [5] Company Developments - Zhenhua Co. is actively participating in the bankruptcy restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong Group and other companies, investing 200 million yuan to acquire 100% equity post-restructuring [6] - The restructuring aims to enhance Zhenhua's business channels and promote the integration and upgrade of the chromium salt industry towards higher quality and efficiency [6] - Zhenhua Co. is currently the largest producer of chromium chemicals and vitamin K3 globally, positioning itself to capitalize on industry opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent price increases in various chemical and industrial products have sparked widespread market attention, raising questions about the drivers of this price surge, its sustainability, and the potential for performance recovery among upstream and downstream companies in the industry [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Chromium prices have surged rapidly, with a notable increase of 18.9% from October 21 to November 6, reaching 75,500 yuan per ton [2] - The price of Chinese metal chromium rose by 28% compared to October 21, with a daily increase of 7,000 yuan per ton noted on November 5 [2][5] - The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, indicating a potential revaluation of the chromium industry [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Zhenhua Co., a leading chromium salt producer, saw its stock price increase by over 80% in a short period, with a reported price of 33.10 yuan per share on November 6 [4] - The company is projected to become one of the top five global chromium producers by the end of 2024 [4] - Zhenhua Co. is focusing on expanding the downstream applications of chromium, particularly in new materials for power equipment [4] Group 3: Supply Chain and Regulatory Factors - The South African government plans to impose export controls on chromium ore, requiring permits and introducing a 25% export tax, which could significantly impact global supply [5] - South Africa accounts for nearly half of the world's chromium production, with China heavily reliant on imports due to limited domestic resources [5][6] Group 4: Future Demand and Industry Outlook - The demand for chromium is expected to rise due to the expansion of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) and other applications, with projected demand increases of 0.38 million tons to 2.62 million tons from 2025 to 2027 [7] - The chromium and chromium salt supply-demand gap is anticipated to exceed 70,000 tons and 300,000 tons by 2028, respectively, indicating a supply shortage [7] - The chromium salt industry is poised for a value reassessment, driven by increased demand from AI data centers and gas turbine applications [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on the expansion of downstream applications of metallic chromium, particularly in the new materials sector such as electrical equipment, highlighting its market potential [1] Group 1 - The company has established stable cooperative relationships with enterprises in the supply chain of the US BE company [1] - As a source manufacturer of metallic chromium, the company prioritizes product process stability and quality control [1] - The company has not yet gathered information on the single consumption parameters of downstream end products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) companies consume significantly less chromium compared to their overseas counterparts, which raises concerns about the demand for chromium in the industry [1] Group 1: Chromium Consumption - Domestic SOFC companies reportedly consume 2500 tons of chromium per GW, while overseas companies consume 7500 to 10000 tons per GW, indicating a consumption rate that is 3 to 4 times higher [1] - Based on BE's projected capacity of 2 GW for next year, the minimum requirement for metallic chromium would be 1.5 wt, corresponding to a sodium chromate demand of 5.4 wt at a 30% market share [1] Group 2: Company Positioning - The company, Zhenhua Co., Ltd. (振华股份), is actively monitoring the downstream applications of metallic chromium, particularly in the power equipment and new materials sectors [1] - Zhenhua has established stable partnerships with companies in the supply chain of the American BE company, emphasizing its commitment to product stability and quality control [1]

Summary of SOFC Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - **SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell)** is a new type of fuel cell developed primarily by Bloom Energy, converting chemical energy directly into electrical energy with an efficiency exceeding 50% [3][4][9] - The demand for **metal chromium** is significantly driven by SOFC technology, with projections indicating a supply-demand gap in the chromium market will expand from 25% to 32% by 2028 due to SOFC development [1][2][5] Key Points on SOFC - **Efficiency and Cost**: Initial conversion efficiency of SOFC is around 60%, which can be improved to over 95% with heat recovery. Although current costs are high, they are expected to decrease with standardization and increased production capacity [1][9] - **Market Potential**: SOFC is anticipated to become a major clean energy solution, with rapid deployment capabilities and cost advantages, especially in addressing energy shortages and enhancing power generation competitiveness [8][16] - **Application in Data Centers**: SOFC generates direct current, which is beneficial for data centers, eliminating the need for AC to DC conversion, thus improving efficiency and reducing investment costs [10] Company Insights - **Company B**: - Plans to deliver 0.3 GW in 2024, 0.5 GW in 2025, and aims for a capacity of 2 GW by the end of 2026. This expansion will significantly impact the market beyond artificial intelligence data centers (AIDC) [11] - A 1 GW SOFC requires approximately 8,200 tons of metal chromium, leading to a projected demand increase for chromium to around 1.64 million tons by 2027 [12] Key Companies in SOFC Industry - **Zhenhua Co.**: A major player in the chromium market, benefiting from SOFC demand [6][18] - **SanHuan Group**: Supplies high-quality ceramic membranes essential for SOFC [6][19] - **EasyTech**: Focuses on SOFC system integration [6][20] - **Weichai Power**: Holds a stake in a UK company specializing in SOFC technology [6][20] Market Dynamics - **Chromium Demand**: The demand for chromium is expected to grow at a rate of 20% to 23% due to SOFC advancements, with significant applications in high-temperature and corrosion-resistant industries [2][17] - **Supply Constraints**: The production of metallurgical-grade chromium oxide is limited, leading to potential shortages in the supply chain [13] Risks and Challenges - The industry faces risks such as intensified economic competition, economic downturns, price volatility, and potential technological barriers from advanced economies [21] - Fluctuations in downstream AI demand could also impact the market, although the diverse requirements of the industry may mitigate significant impacts from single demand changes [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 showed a revenue of 1.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.17%. The net profit for Q3 was 112 million yuan, down 9.15% year-on-year and 38.17% quarter-on-quarter. Overall performance met expectations [7] - The company is positioned as the sole investor in the restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong Group, which is expected to optimize the industry landscape. The company plans to invest 200 million yuan to acquire 100% equity of the target company [7] - The company’s subsidiary project in Chongqing is expected to contribute significantly to future growth, with new production capacity for various products set to come online by 2027 [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 703 million yuan, 857 million yuan, and 1.010 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24X, 20X, and 17X [6][7] - Total revenue is expected to grow from 4.461 billion yuan in 2025 to 5.051 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.7% [6][9] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 31.0% in 2025 to 31.3% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The global chromium industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with demand growth at approximately 9% outpacing production growth at around 3%. A projected supply gap of 4% is expected by 2025, increasing to nearly 25% by 2028 [2][5][25]. - Demand for metallurgical-grade chromium, particularly in commercial aviation, gas turbines, and military sectors, is forecasted to grow at rates between 19% and 22% [2][5]. Company Insights - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. is positioned as a global leader in the chromium industry, enhancing profitability through cost control, capacity expansion (increasing sodium dichromate capacity to 350,000 tons, with a long-term goal of 450,000 tons), and acquisitions of competitors [2][6][25]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in AI and aerospace demand, alongside supply-side constraints, leading to a potential revaluation of its stock [2][6]. Key Points on Demand and Supply - The chromium industry is entering a tight balance state, with improved performance during off-peak seasons and earlier price increases during peak seasons. Price hikes are anticipated to start in April 2024 and February 2025, indicating a potential price increase cycle beginning as early as late 2025 [2][7]. - The most constrained segment of the chromium salt industry is the sodium dichromate segment due to strict regulations on chromium slag treatment, which is expected to lead to shortages [2][10]. Price Trends - As of July 29, the price of metallic chromium reached a historical high but has since declined due to tariffs imposed by China on U.S. exports. It is anticipated that prices will enter an upward trend again following trade rebalancing [2][9]. Future Outlook for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. - Zhenhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in the coming years due to its proactive management, cost reductions, and capacity expansions. The company’s valuation is currently below its actual value, with new applications expected to drive revaluation [2][6][25]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity, with sodium dichromate production expected to reach 300,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 350,000 tons in 2026, and potentially 450,000 tons by 2028 [2][8]. Demand from Key Sectors - The demand for metallic chromium in commercial aviation engines is significant, with each additional 10,000 tons of chromium demand translating to an increase of 40,000 tons in sodium dichromate demand. Boeing and Airbus are experiencing substantial order backlogs, with Boeing's orders increasing by 300% year-on-year [2][15][16]. - The military sector is also driving demand for high-temperature alloys and metallic chromium, with European military spending increasing significantly [2][17]. Global Market Dynamics - China holds a dominant position in the global metallic chromium supply chain, with exports expected to reach historical highs in 2024 despite tariff impacts on U.S. imports. The European market is showing significant demand growth [2][11][21][24]. Risks and Considerations - The downstream industries exhibit cyclical volatility risks, including potential changes in environmental policies and safety production risks that need to be closely monitored [2][25].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.217 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.027 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% to 112 million yuan [1] - The company is participating in the bankruptcy reorganization of Xinjiang Shenhong Group and six other companies, investing 200 million yuan to acquire 100% equity, aiming to enhance the chromium salt industry [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 26.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year but a decrease of 5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The expense ratio (including four fees and taxes) was 13.8%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company produced approximately 75,000 tons of chromium products (in terms of heavy chromium sodium) and sold about 63,000 tons during the same period [1] Product Performance - Sales of chromium products showed short-term fluctuations, with a year-on-year decrease of 9% for heavy chromium salts, while chromium oxides, chromium salts, and ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide saw increases of 8%, 15%, and 18% respectively [1] - The average price of chromium products decreased year-on-year, with heavy chromium salts down 11%, chromium oxides down 3%, chromium salts down 18%, and ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide down 5% [1] - The alloy additive segment generated a revenue of 115 million yuan with a sales volume of 6,000 tons, impacted by trade policy disruptions and fluctuating demand from major domestic clients [1] Strategic Developments - The investment in the bankruptcy reorganization of Xinjiang Shenhong Group is expected to enhance operational potential and promote the integration and upgrade of the chromium salt industry [2] - This strategic move aligns with the company's goals of fostering a higher quality, more environmentally friendly, and efficient chromium salt industry [2] Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 590 million yuan, 690 million yuan, and 780 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "strongly recommended" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the low point of the company's Q3 performance has passed, and it remains optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential [4][5] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.217 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, up 12.56% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 due to lower-than-expected sales volume and prices in Q3, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 581 million, 849 million, and 969 million yuan respectively [4][5] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is expected to generate a revenue of 4.949 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7% [7] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 581 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 25.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.7% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.82 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.7 times [7] Industry Outlook - The overall demand for the chromium salt and metal chromium industry is steadily increasing, benefiting from the rapid growth in exports and downstream high-temperature alloy demand [6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global chromium salt and metal chromium market, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [6] - Long-term growth is supported by anticipated increases in production capacity and cost reduction strategies, particularly from the completion of the Chongqing base relocation and potential acquisitions [6]