达利欧在《债务危机》中提出了一个针对债务周期的普适的模型，认为典型的债务周期可分为七个阶 段，多个短期债务周期叠加形成长期债务周期。债务周期依据一国以外币计价的债务占比，可划分为通 缩性债务周期和通胀性债务周期，而对比中美，美国在周期波动时通胀压力更大，原因在于债务的对外 依赖度更高。结合核心CPI来看，多数时间美国通胀水平高于中国，面临的经济增长与通胀之间的平衡 压力更大。 2026年债务周期上行空间有限 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，2025年，银行业资产增速为8.01%，高于2024年的6.52%，从 流动性视角上看，能得到很多银行经营周期上行的理由，如财政发力、跨境资金回流、存款到期与活化 等。站在周期视角，该行认为银行经营层面至少存在两个周期(银行扩表周期、银行息差周期)在影响各 类资产定价。 广发证券主要观点如下： 银行扩表周期，该行认为本质是债务周期 银行息差周期 观察2010年至今的净息差波动，经历了两轮完整周期，2025年是银行净息差企稳周期的开始。2015年至 今，银行净息差同步于30Y-10Y国债利差。银行息差压力越大，利率曲线越平坦化，可以理解为银行息 差压力越大，对高收益资 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [58]. Core Insights - In 2025, the banking sector's asset growth is projected to be 8.01%, an increase from 6.52% in 2024, driven by factors such as fiscal stimulus, cross-border capital inflows, and the activation of maturing deposits [5][13]. - The report identifies two key cycles affecting asset pricing in banking: the bank expansion cycle and the interest margin cycle, suggesting a comprehensive analysis of these cycles [5][13]. - The debt cycle is characterized as a fundamental aspect of the bank expansion cycle, with a model proposed by Dalio outlining seven stages of a typical debt cycle, which can be influenced by external debt reliance [16][19]. - The report anticipates limited upward space for the debt cycle in 2026, with government leverage expected to increase by 5.89%, lower than the 7.6% projected for 2025 [35][36]. - The banking interest margin cycle is expected to stabilize in 2025, following two complete cycles since 2010, with a correlation observed between bank interest margins and the 30Y-10Y government bond spread [41][45]. Summary by Sections Bank Expansion Cycle - The asset growth rates for different types of banks in 2025 are projected as follows: state-owned banks at 11%, joint-stock banks at 4.74%, city commercial banks at 9.68%, and rural commercial banks at 5.17%, all exceeding the average growth rate [5][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between bank assets and liabilities, highlighting that credit and debt expansion are cyclical and self-reinforcing [15][16]. Debt Cycle Analysis - The report outlines that the current debt cycle, which began in 2022, has lasted 16 quarters, surpassing previous cycles, and indicates a shift in leverage dynamics among enterprises, government, and households [35][36]. - The analysis includes a comparison of deflationary and inflationary debt cycles, noting that the U.S. faces greater inflationary pressures due to higher external debt reliance compared to China [21][19]. Interest Margin Cycle - The report notes that the banking interest margin has experienced significant fluctuations since 2010, with a stabilization phase expected to begin in 2025 [41][45]. - It highlights the impact of loan repricing cycles on interest margins, with a notable decline in loan rates observed in recent years [49][50].