中信证券研报称，近期人民币汇率升值，利好人民币权益资产表现。央行下阶段政策工具使用更加灵 活，重视内需目标。展望2026年，宏观金融条件稳定指向银行经营环境稳定，预计银行息差见底，实体 部门风险缓释中，收入与盈利修复。行业绝对收益逻辑来自于，银行系统性风险再评估带来的估值修 复，同时稳定权益回报特征驱动资金流入板块。预计2026年板块将继续演绎估值提升方向。 ...

华创证券认为，2026年银行板块将迎来估值系统性回升，投资逻辑从单纯红利防御转向"红利+成长"双 轮驱动。一方面，银行股高股息、低估值特性在无风险利率下行背景下，类债属性持续吸引稳健资金； 另一方面，息差企稳、区域信贷需求回升及非息收入增长将推动部分优质银行业绩弹性释放，估值有望 从PB向PE逻辑切换。银行ETF南方(512700.SH)可全面覆盖板块机会，把握国有大行红利基石、优质股 份行及城商行成长弹性，同时受益于区域政策红利，是布局银行板块估值修复的高效工具。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 12月29日，沪深两市震荡，化学纤维板块涨幅居前。截至14点44分，银行ETF南方(512700.SH)涨 0.75%，兴业银行涨1.28%。 ...

转自：北京日报客户端 12月15日，工商银行、农业银行派发2025年半年度A股现金红包。 截至目前，已有包括六家国有大行以及部分股份行、城商行、农商行等共计20余家A股上市银行陆续实 施分红派息或披露2025年中期分红方案，合计派息金额拟超2600亿元。 除了中期分红之外，一些银行也在推动三季度分红实施。10月24日，重庆银行发布了关于2025年三季度 利润预分配方案的公告，拟派发现金股息5.85亿元（含税），占归属于本行普通股股东净利润的 11.99%。 推动银行估值修复 近几年，监管层持续鼓励上市银行提高分红频次和力度，例如新"国九条"明确，增强分红稳定性、持续 性和可预期性，推动一年多次分红、预分红、春节前分红。 国有大行分红超2000亿元 国有大行依旧是上市银行分红的"绝对主力"，合计已实施或拟实施现金分红超2000亿元。 从分红规模看，工商银行的分红金额最高。工商银行每股派发现金股息0.1414元（含税），派发现金股 息共计约503.96亿元；建设银行派发现金股息每股0.1858元（含税），共计约486.05亿元；农业银行派 发现金股息每股0.1195元（含税），共计约418.23亿元（含税）；中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu Bank's two major state-owned shareholders have invested 611 million yuan to increase their stake, indicating confidence in the bank despite recent stock price declines and mixed financial performance [2][4]. Shareholder Actions - The investment by Chengdu Industrial Capital Holding Group and Chengdu Xintianyi Investment Co. occurred between August 27 and November 21, totaling approximately 34.247 million shares, representing 0.808% of the total share capital [2]. - The initial buyback plan began in April, with a target price of no more than 17.59 yuan per share, but the stock price exceeded this limit shortly after the announcement [3][4]. - The buyback plan was adjusted in August to remove the price cap, allowing for a total investment of 700 million to 1.4 billion yuan over the next 12 months [4]. Financial Performance - Chengdu Bank's total assets surpassed 1 trillion yuan in mid-2023, reaching 1.39 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, establishing it as a leading city commercial bank in Southwest China [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank reported a revenue of 17.761 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.01%, and a net profit of 9.493 billion yuan, up 5.03% [5]. - However, the third quarter saw a revenue decline of 2.92% year-on-year, with net profit growth slowing significantly to just 0.17% compared to 11.27% in the previous year [5][6]. Business Structure Challenges - The bank's net interest income accounted for 83.15% of total revenue, while fee and commission income fell by 35.17%, indicating a reliance on interest income [6]. - The bank's loan portfolio remains skewed towards corporate loans, with retail loans showing a significant slowdown, adding to concerns about business diversification [7]. Industry Trends - The increase in shareholding by Chengdu Bank's major shareholders reflects a broader trend in the banking sector, where several banks have seen similar shareholder buybacks amid favorable valuation conditions [8]. - The financing balance for A-share banks has risen from under 56 billion yuan in early July to approximately 75.6 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in bank stocks [8]. - Local state-owned enterprises increasing their stakes in regional banks is seen as a strategy to enhance control over local financial resources and ensure the stability of state assets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in share buybacks by various banks, including Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank, reflects strong confidence in the long-term value of the banking sector, with over 10 listed banks participating in this trend [1][9][10]. Group 1: Share Buybacks - Qilu Bank announced that its directors, supervisors, and senior executives have collectively increased their holdings by 3.15 million yuan, accounting for 90% of the planned buyback amount [1]. - Qingdao Bank's major shareholder, Qingdao Guoxin Financial Holdings, increased its holdings by 957 million yuan, raising its stake to 15.42%, making it the largest shareholder [4]. - Xiamen Bank's executives completed a buyback plan exceeding the minimum target, with total contributions reaching 1.6857 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The buyback activities are interpreted as a recognition of the banking sector's valuation, with a current price-to-book ratio of 0.72 and a dividend yield of 3.99%, attracting long-term capital [10][12]. - The banking sector has seen a collective "self-purchase" phenomenon, with various regional banks also engaging in buybacks, indicating a broader trend across the industry [6][8]. Group 3: Performance and Valuation - Despite a slight decline in revenue and net profit for 42 A-share listed banks in the first quarter, 24 banks reported growth in both metrics, particularly city and rural commercial banks [10]. - The net interest margin for listed banks is projected to stabilize, with a simulated net interest margin of 1.32% for Q3 2025, marking a potential turning point after four years of decline [12]. - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, has been increasingly allocated to the banking sector, with a reported increase of 8.36 billion shares held by insurance funds in Q3 2025 [12][13].

Summary of Conference Call on Banking Sector Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the banking sector, particularly the performance and outlook of bank stocks in the context of macroeconomic conditions and policy support [1][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sustained Performance of Bank Stocks**: The banking sector is expected to maintain a positive trajectory, benefiting from the establishment of risk bottom lines in urban investment real estate, policy support for debt resolution, and capital replenishment in small and medium-sized banks [1][3]. - **Valuation Recovery**: The foundation for valuation recovery in the banking sector is solid, supported by effective risk control in urban investment real estate and high growth in net interest income. Major urban commercial banks are leading in balance sheet expansion and have stabilized net interest margins [1][5]. - **Market Discrepancies on Interest Rate Outlook**: There is a divergence in market views regarding future interest rate trends. Some investors are concerned about potential negative impacts on the bond market if rates rise. However, leading banks have shifted focus from non-interest income to net interest income growth, which is expected to continue into the next year [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The fourth quarter is identified as a key period for investment. Recommended stocks include quality urban commercial banks such as Nanjing Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Hangzhou Bank due to their low valuations, high dividend yields, and strong profit growth. Large commercial banks like China Merchants Bank are suggested as core holdings [1][7]. - **Attractive Dividend Yields**: In the H-share market, large state-owned commercial banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) offer attractive dividend yields close to 6%, making them worthy of attention for their valuation recovery potential [1][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Capital Flows**: Despite a general outflow of active funds in the third quarter, local state-owned enterprises and industrial capital have been increasing their holdings in bank stocks, indicating optimism about the sector's future performance. For instance, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank received investment from an Asset Management Company (AMC), and several urban commercial banks have seen significant share purchases by major shareholders [8]. - **Performance Comparison**: In the recent trading week, bank stocks ended a continuous decline since July 10, achieving a 5% absolute return, outperforming the broader market indices [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the banking sector's outlook, investment strategies, and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a rebound despite market volatility, driven by stable fundamentals and attractive dividend yields, which are expected to attract long-term capital [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03618) increased by 3.45% to HKD 6.6 - Agricultural Bank (01288) rose by 2.23% to HKD 5.49 - CITIC Bank (00998) gained 2.12% to HKD 7.23 - Postal Savings Bank (01658) went up by 1.7% to HKD 5.39 - Industrial and Commercial Bank (01398) climbed 1.56% to HKD 5.85 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Dongxing Securities noted that the banking sector has been adjusting since July due to increased market risk appetite and a shift in funding styles, but the sector's fundamentals remain robust [1] - The firm anticipates that as mid-term dividends begin to unfold, the attractiveness of bank dividends will continue to rise, providing support for long-term capital allocation [1] - The banking sector is expected to see a valuation recovery in the fourth quarter as market styles rebalance [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Galaxy Securities highlighted that increased uncertainty in tariffs is causing global asset price fluctuations, creating a demand for defensive allocations, which presents opportunities for bank investments [1] - The stability of bank dividends, combined with a recent period of adjustment, has improved the attractiveness of dividend yields, likely drawing in risk-averse capital [1] - Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that after adjustments influenced by market styles, the dividend yield of the banking sector has regained its appeal, with H-shares outperforming A-shares in terms of cost-effectiveness [1]

Group 1 - The banking sector showed strong performance with state-owned banks leading the gains, particularly Agricultural Bank and Construction Bank, both rising over 2% [1] - Agricultural Bank approached its historical high, while other banks like Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank also saw increases [1] - The Bank ETF (512800) experienced a price increase of 1.11%, marking a six-day consecutive rise with a trading volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Long-term funds are expected to support the banking sector due to the ongoing mid-term dividend distributions and the attractive dividend yields following recent adjustments [4] - The banking sector has seen significant capital inflow, with the Bank ETF (512800) recording a net inflow of 3.893 billion yuan over the past five days, reaching a new historical high of 18.496 billion yuan [4] - The Bank ETF (512800) is the largest and most liquid among the ten banking ETFs in A-shares, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan this year [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the banking sector is experiencing a recovery in revenue and profit growth, with overall operating income and net profit growth rates for listed banks turning positive [1][2] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a stable low interest rate environment, leading investors to prefer lower-risk and more predictable return assets [1][2] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is considered undervalued, especially given the systemic risk concerns have been alleviated [1][2] Group 2 - Recent market conditions have led to increased long-term investments in banks by institutional investors, such as insurance funds and asset management companies [2] - The banking sector's asset quality is stable, and the pressure on interest margins is manageable, with expectations for interest margins to stabilize in the coming quarters [2] - The banking sector is anticipated to enter a new phase of stable return on equity (ROE), supported by fiscal stability and risk management from the central bank [2] Group 3 - The CSI Bank Index closely tracks the performance of the banking sector, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65% of the index [3] - The top ten stocks in the CSI Bank Index include major banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China [3]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the banking industry faces challenges such as slowing growth, narrowing interest margins, and market volatility. However, Industrial Bank has outperformed the market, demonstrating resilience and enhanced strategic execution. The bank aims to establish technology finance as its "fourth card" alongside its existing strengths in green banking, wealth management, and investment banking [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of June 2025, Industrial Bank's total assets reached 10.61 trillion yuan, a 1.01% increase from the end of the previous year. The bank's deposits and loans also grew by 6.10% and 2.91%, respectively [3]. - The bank reported operating income of 1104.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 431.41 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.21% [3]. - The bank's net interest margin was 1.75%, with a year-on-year decline of 11 basis points, indicating a converging trend in the narrowing of interest margins [4]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Risk Management - Industrial Bank's non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.08%, unchanged from the previous quarter, while the ratio of overdue loans decreased by 0.06 percentage points from the beginning of the year [6]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 228.54%, maintaining a reasonable range, and the new non-performing loans in real estate and credit cards decreased significantly [6]. Group 3: Strategic Development - The bank continues to enhance its three main business areas: green banking, wealth management, and investment banking, while also focusing on technology finance [7]. - As of June 2025, the bank's technology finance loan balance reached 1.11 trillion yuan, a 14.73% increase from the beginning of the year, leading among joint-stock banks [8][9]. - The bank plans to deepen the integration of its investment banking, asset management, and wealth management services, aiming to build a comprehensive service ecosystem [8]. Group 4: Shareholder Returns and Valuation - Industrial Bank has maintained a high dividend policy, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.73% last year, ranking second among joint-stock banks [10]. - The bank's price-to-book (PB) ratio has improved, with the average PB of listed banks rising from 0.52 at the end of 2023 to 0.67 currently, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [11]. - The bank's static dividend yield is 4.66%, placing it in the top third among state-owned and joint-stock banks [11].