Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate confirmed Jonathan Gould as the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, indicating a shift towards less regulatory oversight for national lending institutions and support for cryptocurrency assets [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Senate Confirmation** - The Senate approved Gould's position with a vote of 50 in favor and 45 against [1] - **Regulatory Philosophy** - Gould has expressed that since 2008, banking regulators have sometimes aimed to eliminate risks rather than manage them, which has hindered banks' ability to perform their functions [1] - **Policy Changes** - Earlier this year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced it would no longer review the risks associated with banks conducting business with controversial clients [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, highlighting internal and external divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy direction [2][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen significant pressure from President Trump and White House officials urging Powell to restart the rate-cutting process [2]. - The June dot plot revealed a notable division among Federal Reserve officials, with seven out of nineteen supporting no rate cuts this year, indicating a split between hawkish and dovish factions [2][4]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist noted that the level of disagreement among officials is at a ten-year high, reflecting fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [4]. Group 2: Powell's Upcoming Testimony - Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance during his upcoming testimony, likely reiterating the Fed's position to wait for more economic data before making any rate adjustments [6][11]. - Analysts predict that Powell will emphasize the current economic stability and the need for patience, despite calls for immediate action from some officials [6][11]. - The core PCE price index is anticipated to show a modest increase of only 0.1% month-over-month, indicating low inflationary pressures [6]. Group 3: Political Influences and Market Reactions - The political influence on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is becoming more pronounced, with two Republican-leaning officials suggesting a rate cut in July, which has altered market expectations [6][9]. - Market traders have raised the probability of a July rate cut to approximately 23%, while the likelihood of a September cut stands at 82% [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Concerns - Powell is likely to address the potential economic impacts of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which has seen fluctuations in oil prices but is not expected to have a lasting effect on inflation [11][14]. - Analysts warn that prolonged conflict could push oil prices to $120 per barrel, potentially raising U.S. inflation to around 5% [14]. Group 5: Regulatory and Policy Discussions - Powell may face questions regarding the current push for regulatory reforms, including the relaxation of certain banking regulations, which the White House is advocating [16]. - The proposal to eliminate interest payments on bank reserves, aimed at reducing government spending, is also expected to be a topic of discussion, though analysts caution it could disrupt monetary policy [17].

尽管眼下距离上周的美联储6月议息会议才过去不到一周，但美联储主席鲍威尔显然将又一次 成为整个华尔街的焦点所在…… 按照日程安排，鲍威尔将于北京时间今晚22点向众议院金融服务委员会发表半年度货币政策 报告证词。而在明日同一时间段，他还将"转战"参议院银行、住房和城市事务委员会发表类似 的证词演讲。 德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzet在近期的一份研报中就表示，6月点阵图反映 出的官员分歧程度创下了十年新高，这表明美联储官员们在如何平衡通胀控制与经济增长之 间，正存在根本性分歧。 而与此同时，不知是否受到了特朗普和白宫官员频繁施压的影响，在6月议息会议才过去仅仅 几天的情况下，就已有至少两位美联储理事——沃勒和鲍曼表示可能支持在下月就立刻降息： 这两人中，过去几周立场一直在美联储内部处于最鸽派阵营的沃勒，其降息言论或许还 算是"一如往昔"，但鲍曼在过往却绝非美联储内部的极端鸽派阵营。 更令人感到玩味的是，在当前美联储的7位理事中，其实只有鲍曼和沃勒两位是特朗普第 一任政府时期上任的官员。同时，沃勒过去一年曾被不少人视为下任美联储主席热门人选， 鲍曼则刚刚被特朗普政府提拔为负责金融监管的美联储副主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. authorities are preparing to announce significant measures to lower bank capital requirements, marking a continuation of the Trump administration's deregulation agenda following the 2008 financial crisis [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - Regulatory agencies are expected to reduce the supplementary leverage ratio in the coming months, which mandates large banks to hold a predetermined amount of high-quality capital against their total leverage, including loans and off-balance-sheet risks [1] - This rule was established in 2014 as part of comprehensive reforms following the 2008-09 financial crisis [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Banking lobbyists have opposed the supplementary leverage ratio for years, arguing that it penalizes banks even when holding low-risk assets like U.S. Treasury securities [1] - The current regulations are seen as hindering banks' ability to facilitate trading in the $29 trillion government bond market and impairing their capacity to extend credit [1]