Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, highlighting internal and external divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy direction [2][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen significant pressure from President Trump and White House officials urging Powell to restart the rate-cutting process [2]. - The June dot plot revealed a notable division among Federal Reserve officials, with seven out of nineteen supporting no rate cuts this year, indicating a split between hawkish and dovish factions [2][4]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist noted that the level of disagreement among officials is at a ten-year high, reflecting fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [4]. Group 2: Powell's Upcoming Testimony - Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance during his upcoming testimony, likely reiterating the Fed's position to wait for more economic data before making any rate adjustments [6][11]. - Analysts predict that Powell will emphasize the current economic stability and the need for patience, despite calls for immediate action from some officials [6][11]. - The core PCE price index is anticipated to show a modest increase of only 0.1% month-over-month, indicating low inflationary pressures [6]. Group 3: Political Influences and Market Reactions - The political influence on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is becoming more pronounced, with two Republican-leaning officials suggesting a rate cut in July, which has altered market expectations [6][9]. - Market traders have raised the probability of a July rate cut to approximately 23%, while the likelihood of a September cut stands at 82% [9]. Group 4: Geopolitical Concerns - Powell is likely to address the potential economic impacts of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which has seen fluctuations in oil prices but is not expected to have a lasting effect on inflation [11][14]. - Analysts warn that prolonged conflict could push oil prices to $120 per barrel, potentially raising U.S. inflation to around 5% [14]. Group 5: Regulatory and Policy Discussions - Powell may face questions regarding the current push for regulatory reforms, including the relaxation of certain banking regulations, which the White House is advocating [16]. - The proposal to eliminate interest payments on bank reserves, aimed at reducing government spending, is also expected to be a topic of discussion, though analysts caution it could disrupt monetary policy [17].

美联储内部分歧达十年之最，降息前景几何？ 美联储最新发布的经济预测概要（SEP）显示，2025年降息预期中值达到两次，但官员们的预测范围从 不降息到降息75个基点不等，凸显了政策制定者之间的显著分歧。 更为关键的是，沃勒和鲍曼两位美联储理事率先"倒戈"，公开表示不排除7月降息的可能性，这进一步 加剧了市场对政策转向的猜测。 据追风交易台消息，德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzet及其团队在最新发布的研报中表示， 6月SEP报告反映的官员分歧程度创下十年新高，这是因为官员们在如何平衡通胀控制与经济增长之间 存在根本性分歧。 报告同时补充表示，尽管当前分歧显著，但美联储官员对2025年利率路径的不确定性并非史无前例，甚 至低于去年同期的水平。预计随着经济数据逐步明朗，官员们的观点可能逐步收敛，但短期内分歧仍将 持续。 美联储内部出现历史性分歧，但利率不确定性实际下降 通过对美联储6月SEP报告的深度分析，德银认为，美联储当前面临的主要问题不是"历史性不确定 性"，而是"历史性分裂"。 根据德银的研究，6月点阵图显示美联储官员对2025年联邦基金利率的预测呈现出高度的两极化分布， 最常见预测与次常见 ...