Core Viewpoint - The Chinese banking sector is experiencing a significant rally, driven by optimistic forecasts regarding dividend sustainability and potential profit growth, particularly with the introduction of mid-term dividends by major banks in 2024 [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - On August 1, A-share banking stocks collectively surged, with Agricultural Bank of China reaching a historical high and Qingdao Bank rising over 5% [2][3]. - Other banks such as Ningbo Bank and Nanjing Bank also saw gains, indicating a strong market sentiment towards the banking sector [3]. Dividend Expectations - UBS expressed a positive outlook on the sustainability of dividends in the Chinese banking sector, noting that banks with dividend yields exceeding 4.2% for H-shares and 4.0% for A-shares are particularly attractive [3]. - Major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Bank are set to distribute mid-term dividends for the first time since their listings in 2024, contributing to the bullish sentiment [4]. Future Outlook - UBS forecasts that the fundamentals of the Chinese banking industry will improve from 2026, with expectations of revenue growth and recovery in net interest margins [6]. - The report anticipates a moderate increase in per-share dividends under a basic scenario, while also considering various credit cost scenarios [6]. - UBS maintains a "buy" rating for several H-share banks based on projected dividend yields of 5.1% to 5.4% for 2026, while downgrading some A-share banks due to lower yields [6]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is actively promoting increased dividend distributions among listed companies, aiming to enhance investment value and attract investors [4]. - The collaboration of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to guide banks in optimizing credit structures and increasing lending, which may lead to substantial performance improvements in the banking sector by the second half of 2025 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The sustainability of dividends in the Chinese banking sector is a key focus, influenced by banks' profit outlook and liquidity conditions, as analyzed by UBS through a five-year forecast [1]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Dividend Sustainability - UBS expects Chinese banks to maintain stable profit growth, with revenue recovery starting in 2026 under a smooth provisioning path [2]. - UBS is optimistic about the sustainability of dividends and further upward trends in the Chinese banking sector, particularly for H-shares with yields over 4.2% and A-shares over 4.0% [2]. - UBS upgraded the rating of Bank of Communications H-shares to "Buy" and maintained "Buy" ratings for several other banks based on attractive yield forecasts [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Improvements - UBS anticipates that from 2026, banks will see revenue growth, with net interest margins bottoming out and fee income rebounding [3]. - The analysis includes three credit cost scenarios, predicting moderate per-share dividend growth or flat dividends in a zero-profit growth scenario, especially after 2027 [3]. - UBS believes that a stress scenario leading to a peak in non-performing loans is unlikely, and the provisioning levels are deemed sufficient [3]. Group 3: Yield Comparisons - UBS is more optimistic about H-share banks compared to A-share banks due to yield differences, predicting an average yield of 4.9% for H-shares and 4.1% for A-shares by 2026 [4]. - The firm maintains "Buy" ratings for several H-share banks based on projected yields of 5.1%-5.4% [4]. - Despite the strong yield of China Merchants Bank A-shares, UBS downgraded its H-share rating to neutral due to high valuations and lower yields compared to peers [4].