哪类优质银行成分股还在低位？20250813 摘要 公募基金对银行股的配置比例重构逻辑是主动型投资者从长期欠配到一 定程度的修复，短期受市场风险偏好影响放缓，中期呈现震荡上行趋势， 受短期市场风险偏好和其他板块相对收益弹性影响。 绝对收益资金如险资和固收家，看重银行股的盈利和分红稳定性，以及 市值容载量较大优势，适合大型险资持续增配股票、提升权益配置比例， 绝对收益配置价值突出。 顺周期标签优质银行股如常熟银行和宁波银行，此前受经济预期下行影 响估值承压，若未来出台顺周期政策支撑零售贷款资产质量趋稳，估值 有望实现明显修复。 常熟银行 2023 年中报显示业绩增速良好，管理层表达乐观业绩展望， 且突破监管约束将分红比例提升至 25%，显著拉升估值定价；宁波银行 若零售贷款生成率回落，同样具备估值修复潜力，并预计将继续提升分 红比例。 受可转债压制影响的城商行如杭州银行和南京银行，在二季度受到机构 大幅认可和加仓，均实现可转债强赎，股价创下新高，但目前股价已不 再处于低位。 公募基金对于银行股配置比例重构的逻辑是什么？ 公募基金配置比例重构的逻辑主要基于主动型投资者从长期欠配到一定程度上 的配置比例修复。过去两 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector, particularly favoring high-quality city commercial banks [11]. Core Insights - In the current macroeconomic environment, government leverage expansion is the clearest direction for bank operations, with state-owned banks and city commercial banks focusing on government-related business as a core strategy for balance sheet expansion [2][7]. - Leading city commercial banks are accelerating their market share acquisition, with their performance growth consistently outpacing the banking industry, driven primarily by relatively high-speed balance sheet expansion [6][10]. - The asset quality of city commercial banks, primarily engaged in government-related business, is currently the most stable, with expectations for a decline in the net generation rate of non-performing loans this year [2][9]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment favors government-related business, with city commercial banks focusing on local government, urban construction, and local state-owned enterprises [7]. - The demand for government-led financing continues to expand in key economic regions, such as the Chengdu-Chongqing area and Shandong province, despite concerns about export pressures in the Yangtze River Delta [7][8]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics between state-owned banks and leading city commercial banks are evolving, with state-owned banks experiencing a significant increase in credit market share due to macro policy guidance [8]. - Regulatory measures are being implemented to protect the net interest margins of state-owned banks, indirectly slowing their loan issuance and creating a more favorable competitive environment for city commercial banks [8][9]. Asset Quality and Loan Performance - City commercial banks have maintained low non-performing loan rates due to their focus on government-related loans, which have seen reduced risk following recent debt restructuring efforts [9]. - The tightening of risk control and loan issuance in retail banking is expected to lead to a slight decrease in the net generation rate of non-performing loans this year [9]. Investment Outlook - The report is optimistic about city commercial banks becoming the core focus for institutional investors in the banking sector, with expectations for their valuations to rise above 1x PB [10]. - Specific banks, such as Hangzhou Bank, are anticipated to lead in valuation increases due to their regional economic strength, asset quality, and performance growth [10].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 哪类优质银行成分股还在低位？ ——银行股配置重构系列二 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们从方向上看好主动型基金逐步修正长期以来对银行股的严重欠配。在基本面维持稳定的前 提下，资金面上的红利高股息逻辑、被动型基金扩容逻辑、主动型基金增配逻辑将共同推动银 行股低估值持续修复。新的逻辑下市场将在指数成分股中基于长期质地/业绩比较优势/边际变 化等因素优选个股，除了我们重点推荐的白马权重股和业绩领跑的城商行以外，部分前期受到 各种因素压制的优质银行股也值得关注，主要三类银行：1）前期受可转债压制的优质城商行； 2）顺周期标签鲜明的优质银行股；3）受短期因素扰动的低估值国有大行。 research.95579.com 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Title 哪类优质银行成分股还在低位？ 2] ——银行股配置重构系列二 [Table_Sum ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 哪类优质银行成分股还在低位？ ——银行股配置重构系列二 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们从方向上看好主动型基金逐步修正长期以来对银行股的严重欠配。在基本面维持稳定的前 提下，资金面上的红利高股息逻辑、被动型基金扩容逻辑、主动型基金增配逻辑将共同推动银 行股低估值持续修复。新的逻辑下市场将在指数成分股中基于长期质地/业绩比较优势/边际变 化等因素优选个股，除了我们重点推荐的白马权重股和业绩领跑的城商行以外，部分前期受到 各种因素压制的优质银行股也值得关注，主要三类银行：1）前期受可转债压制的优质城商行； 2）顺周期标签鲜明的优质银行股；3）受短期因素扰动的低估值国有大行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 哪类优质银行成分股还在低位？ 2] ——银行股配置重构系列二 [Table_S ...