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铯铷行业深度(Ⅱ):消费结构改善叠加新兴需求爆发,全球铯铷盐需求曲线或持续右移-东兴证券
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 08:36
Group 1 - The report from Dongxing Securities focuses on the development of the cesium and rubidium industry, analyzing resource characteristics, market demand, supply-demand patterns, and key enterprises to provide investment references for the industry [1] - Cesium and rubidium are rare light metals with scarce resources and high extraction difficulty. The global supply of cesium is expected to be less than 40 tons in 2024, with prices reaching 4 million yuan per ton [1][2] - The global demand for cesium and rubidium is clearly on the rise, driven by three main factors: consumption structure upgrades in China, the explosive demand from perovskite solar cells, and improvements in rubidium supply [2][9] Group 2 - In 2020, global cesium consumption was 2,400 tons, with the United States (960 tons, 40%), China (800 tons, 33%), and Japan (300 tons, 14%) being the main consumers. The U.S. consumption is concentrated in high-tech fields (80%), while China's is primarily in traditional sectors (89%) [2][25] - By 2025, China's cesium demand is expected to reach 1,016 tons, a 27% increase from 2020, driven by advancements in atomic clocks and ion thrusters alongside the development of 5G and aerospace [2][36] - The global cesium and rubidium salt demand is projected to grow from 2,466 tons in 2025 to 4,600 tons in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.6% [9][50] Group 3 - The supply side is dominated by leading companies, with Zhongmin Resources controlling over 80% of global cesium lepidolite resources. By Q3 2025, the total production capacity is expected to reach 1,500 tons, accounting for over 50% of global capacity [3][10] - The global supply of cesium and rubidium salts is expected to be 2,210 tons in 2025, 3,135 tons in 2026, and 4,550 tons in 2027, indicating a gradual narrowing of the supply-demand gap [10][50] - The report recommends companies such as Zhongmin Resources and Jinyin Galaxy as key players in the cesium and rubidium industry [11][56]