Summary of the Conference Call on Swine Industry - February 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the swine industry, specifically focusing on the sales report for February 2026, highlighting the performance of 13 sample pig enterprises which collectively sold 12.4365 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 26% but a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1][2] Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - The sales volume of live pigs has shown a significant slowdown, with the growth rate dropping to single digits, indicating that the peak supply period is gradually passing [2] - The average selling price of commodity pigs decreased by 8% to 10% month-on-month and by 20% to 25% year-on-year, with an average price around 11.5 yuan/kg, indicating the market is in a bottom-testing phase [1][3] Inventory Levels - The industry inventory is currently at a low level, with the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens at its lowest in nearly three years. After the Spring Festival, the industry entered an active destocking phase [1][2] - The average weight of pigs sold has slightly increased due to holiday factors, but overall, the industry is experiencing significant overselling, with major companies like Muyuan reporting a decrease in average weight by 0.6-0.7 kg compared to the same period in 2025 [1][3] Market Sentiment and Price Forecast - Current market sentiment is pessimistic, with cautious replenishment behavior observed. Participants are concerned that pig prices may continue to decline, potentially falling below 10 yuan/kg, which is affecting their willingness to restock [4] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains low at 88.34, significantly below levels seen in early 2025, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [4] Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that as the theoretical supply peak passes around April, the industry will experience reduced supply pressure, potentially leading to a widely recognized price bottom. This could trigger a rebound in pig prices, with a turning point expected between April and early May [5] Additional Important Insights - The sales data for February reflects the impact of the Spring Festival, with a notable month-on-month decline in sales volume, particularly for piglets, which saw a 38% decrease month-on-month and a 50.4% decrease year-on-year [2][3] - The average selling price for piglets has also dropped below 300 yuan/head, influenced by the decline in prices for fattened pigs [1][3]