Summary of the Conference Call on Swine Industry - February 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the swine industry, specifically focusing on the sales report for February 2026, highlighting the performance of 13 sample pig enterprises which collectively sold 12.4365 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 26% but a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1][2] Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - The sales volume of live pigs has shown a significant slowdown, with the growth rate dropping to single digits, indicating that the peak supply period is gradually passing [2] - The average selling price of commodity pigs decreased by 8% to 10% month-on-month and by 20% to 25% year-on-year, with an average price around 11.5 yuan/kg, indicating the market is in a bottom-testing phase [1][3] Inventory Levels - The industry inventory is currently at a low level, with the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens at its lowest in nearly three years. After the Spring Festival, the industry entered an active destocking phase [1][2] - The average weight of pigs sold has slightly increased due to holiday factors, but overall, the industry is experiencing significant overselling, with major companies like Muyuan reporting a decrease in average weight by 0.6-0.7 kg compared to the same period in 2025 [1][3] Market Sentiment and Price Forecast - Current market sentiment is pessimistic, with cautious replenishment behavior observed. Participants are concerned that pig prices may continue to decline, potentially falling below 10 yuan/kg, which is affecting their willingness to restock [4] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains low at 88.34, significantly below levels seen in early 2025, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [4] Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that as the theoretical supply peak passes around April, the industry will experience reduced supply pressure, potentially leading to a widely recognized price bottom. This could trigger a rebound in pig prices, with a turning point expected between April and early May [5] Additional Important Insights - The sales data for February reflects the impact of the Spring Festival, with a notable month-on-month decline in sales volume, particularly for piglets, which saw a 38% decrease month-on-month and a 50.4% decrease year-on-year [2][3] - The average selling price for piglets has also dropped below 300 yuan/head, influenced by the decline in prices for fattened pigs [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Western Securities indicates a significant year-on-year increase in the hog output of listed pig companies in July 2025, but a seasonal demand weakness and policy adjustments have led to a month-on-month decline. Despite the growth in output, the drop in hog prices has negatively impacted revenue, resulting in an overall industry revenue decline of 6.64% month-on-month [1][2]. Group 1: Output and Sales - The hog output of listed pig companies in July 2025 reached 15.5382 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.36% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.59% [1]. - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe reported July hog outputs of 6.355 million, 3.1648 million, and 1.3025 million heads, with year-on-year changes of +13.02%, +36.22%, and +3.21% respectively, while month-on-month changes were -9.46%, +5.24%, and -2.07% [1]. - The cumulative output from January to July 2025 for listed pig companies was 110 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.97% [1]. Group 2: Revenue Performance - The operating revenue for listed pig companies in July 2025 was 24.647 billion yuan, down 9.85% year-on-year and 6.64% month-on-month [2]. - Major companies reported July sales revenues of 11.639 billion, 4.877 billion, and 1.802 billion yuan for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, with year-on-year changes of -10.41%, -8.72%, and -24.63% respectively [2]. - The cumulative revenue from January to July 2025 for listed pig companies was 180.473 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.77% [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average selling price of hogs for listed companies in July increased by 1.90% month-on-month but decreased by 22.35% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling prices for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe were 14.30, 14.58, and 14.44 yuan per kilogram, with month-on-month increases of 1.56%, 1.32%, and 1.83% respectively [3]. Group 4: Weight Metrics - The average weight of hogs sold in July was 105.7 kg per head, showing a month-on-month decrease of 1.34% but a year-on-year increase of 0.53% [4]. - Major companies reported average weights of 128.07 kg, 105.69 kg, and 95.81 kg per head, with month-on-month changes of -1.11%, -7.03%, and -3.43% respectively [4].