Summary of the Conference Call on Swine Industry - February 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the swine industry, specifically focusing on the sales report for February 2026, highlighting the performance of 13 sample pig enterprises which collectively sold 12.4365 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 26% but a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1][2] Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - The sales volume of live pigs has shown a significant slowdown, with the growth rate dropping to single digits, indicating that the peak supply period is gradually passing [2] - The average selling price of commodity pigs decreased by 8% to 10% month-on-month and by 20% to 25% year-on-year, with an average price around 11.5 yuan/kg, indicating the market is in a bottom-testing phase [1][3] Inventory Levels - The industry inventory is currently at a low level, with the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens at its lowest in nearly three years. After the Spring Festival, the industry entered an active destocking phase [1][2] - The average weight of pigs sold has slightly increased due to holiday factors, but overall, the industry is experiencing significant overselling, with major companies like Muyuan reporting a decrease in average weight by 0.6-0.7 kg compared to the same period in 2025 [1][3] Market Sentiment and Price Forecast - Current market sentiment is pessimistic, with cautious replenishment behavior observed. Participants are concerned that pig prices may continue to decline, potentially falling below 10 yuan/kg, which is affecting their willingness to restock [4] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains low at 88.34, significantly below levels seen in early 2025, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [4] Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that as the theoretical supply peak passes around April, the industry will experience reduced supply pressure, potentially leading to a widely recognized price bottom. This could trigger a rebound in pig prices, with a turning point expected between April and early May [5] Additional Important Insights - The sales data for February reflects the impact of the Spring Festival, with a notable month-on-month decline in sales volume, particularly for piglets, which saw a 38% decrease month-on-month and a 50.4% decrease year-on-year [2][3] - The average selling price for piglets has also dropped below 300 yuan/head, influenced by the decline in prices for fattened pigs [1][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025, but short - term sharp declines are also unlikely as there may be secondary fattening when prices approach 14 yuan/kg. The 2505 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis - In the context of weakening spot prices and a pessimistic market outlook for April pig prices, the price of the LH2505 contract fluctuated downward this week [2]. - On March 28, 2025, the benchmark ground (Henan) had a base price of 14.53 yuan/kg, and the main contract basis was 1305 yuan/ton [3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - Far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [5]. 3.1.3 Inter - monthly Spread Changes - Affected by the weakening of spot prices, the reverse spread trend of the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 contracts was obvious in the latter part of the week [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Prices and Slaughter Volumes - This week, the slaughter volume began to decline, and pig prices fell in the latter part of the week [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - The spreads among selected regions were within a relatively reasonable range [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spreads - The fat - standard price spread continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Spreads - Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spreads - Beef prices have risen recently, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - fattening remained profitable, while purchased piglet fattening was slightly profitable [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weights - The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. 3.3 Capacity End 3.3.1 Reproductive Sow Inventory - In January, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In February, the reproductive sow inventory in relevant samples continued to increase [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows remained stable this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly month - on - month in February [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Newborn Healthy Piglet Numbers - In February, the number of newborn healthy piglets was basically stable month - on - month, corresponding to an increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in July and stable numbers in August [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to rise this week due to increased enthusiasm among farmers for replenishment as the weather warmed up. The price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In January, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 38.16 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Some slaughterhouses carried out segmentation and warehousing operations, which supported pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [39].