交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-08-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，8月份国内逐渐迎来中秋国庆双节前供需旺季，国内出栏积极性增多生猪价格 短期探底回升后维持震荡，预计本周供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，高温 天气下居民整体消费意愿热情不强，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征 关税，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期维持震荡格局。关注月底集 团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13700元/吨，2511合约基差-65元/吨，现货贴水 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-08-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，8月份国内逐渐迎来中秋国庆双节前供需旺季，国内出栏积极性增多生猪价格 短期探底回升后维持震荡，预计本周供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期偏悲观，高温 天气下居民整体消费意愿热情不强，压制短期鲜猪肉消费，前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征 关税，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期维持震荡格局。关注月中集 团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价13700元/吨，2511合约基差-245元/吨，现货贴 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The view is that the market will experience a shock adjustment. The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 7, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 380 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs. The live pig contract (LH2511) increased its positions by 626 lots today, with a position of about 59,600 lots. The highest price today was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,920 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,100 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a shock. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen in a shock. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen product inventory to support pig prices, strong resilience of spot prices indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as the short - side thinks, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited while the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is shock adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the farming sector), so pig prices are difficult to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail group and support pig prices to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may adjust weakly in a shock, and the 11 - contract is almost at par with the spot price, so it is recommended to wait and see (for reference only, not constituting investment advice) [4]. Market Overview - On August 7, 2025, compared with August 6, 2025, the 01 - contract price of live pigs increased by 85 yuan to 14,395 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.59%; the 03 - contract price increased by 40 yuan to 13,375 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.3%; the 05 - contract price remained unchanged at 13,895 yuan/ton; the 07 - contract price decreased by 10 yuan to 14,405 yuan/ton, with a decrease rate of 0.07%; the 09 - contract price increased by 60 yuan to 13,870 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.43%; the 11 - contract price increased by 90 yuan to 14,100 yuan/ton, with a increase rate of 0.64% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price differences between the 11 - 01 contracts over different time periods [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease in both quantity and meat after the holiday, and the demand is also affected by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather, resulting in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with the LH2509 contract oscillating in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of pigs shows that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The basis is neutral, the inventory situation is bearish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving down, the main position is net short with a decrease in shorts, and the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 [8]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the pork market enters the off - season, with both supply and demand decreasing. The spot price is short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures price also shows an oscillatory and weak pattern. The decline in the spot price may be limited due to the reduction in slaughter [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include a year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and limited room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices. Bearish factors are the pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the off - season for pig and pork consumption after May Day [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. 5. Position Data - The main position is net short, and the number of short positions is decreasing [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after a significant drop in pig prices in July, there has been a recovery in August, particularly in northern regions, with prices returning above 7 yuan per kilogram [2][4] - The support for the bottom of pig prices is believed to be strong, as the market is unlikely to see a complete and sustained drop back to previous lows [4] - Downstream consumption is gradually improving, with expectations of increased demand due to seasonal changes and upcoming holidays, which may lead to controlled pig sales [5][6] Group 2 - The trend of decreasing average weight of slaughtered pigs has been observed, reaching a six-year low, indicating effective measures in reducing production capacity and weight [6][8] - Despite the stabilization of pig prices, the overall supply pressure remains, making significant price increases challenging [8] - The fluctuations in pig prices also impact the corn and wheat markets, with current conditions suggesting that corn prices may remain strong in August due to stable demand from feed [10]

生猪日报 | 2025-07-31 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、7月30日，生猪注册仓单0手； 2、短期现货继续下跌空间有限，关注接下来生猪是否继续降重； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日减仓1758手，持仓约5.3万手，今日最高价14240 元/吨，最低价14005元/吨，收盘于14075元/吨。 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，到12月生猪出栏量或逐月增加（不考虑养殖端提前 或延后出栏），供应充裕下猪价难有明显上涨； 2）150Kg与标猪价差企稳反弹，从季节性看该价差有望继续走强，也会削弱散 户群体的降重意愿，给猪价以一定支撑； 3）若接下来养殖端继续降重或体重保持稳定，则猪价或震荡偏弱调整，09合约 升水现货幅度较大，可考虑轻仓试空，也需注意目前商品受宏观情绪影响较 大，需注意风险防控（仅供参考，不构成投资建议）。 作者： 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年三四季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，下半年消费比 上半年好； 2、 从历史情况来看，肥标差或震荡走强； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week, and the market may experience a double - reduction in supply and demand. The pig price is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly group - farm slaughter rhythm and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction. The main positions are net short, and the shorts are increasing. The recent supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and it is expected that the pig price will rise and then fall this week, returning to the range - bound pattern. The LH2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,900 - 14,300 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of live pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also weak due to the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to have a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market entered the off - season, with a decrease in the slaughter of large pigs. The supply and demand of live pigs have both decreased, and the spot price has been oscillating weakly in the short term, with the futures following the same pattern [12]. - After the May Day holiday, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term. Affected by the double - reduction in supply and demand, the spot price of live pigs has been oscillating weakly, but the decline may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The profit of domestic pig farming remains at a low level, but there is still a short - term profit. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs is relatively high in the short term. The double - reduction in supply and demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will generally maintain a short - term oscillatory and weak pattern. When the price stabilizes depends on the future reduction in supply and recovery in demand [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic live pig inventory and the limited room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pessimistic expectations in the domestic macro - environment due to the Sino - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: As of July 30, the national average spot price of live pigs was 13,890 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 185 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10][14]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of fertile sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price Trend**: The price was below the 20 - day moving average with a downward direction [10]. 3.5 Position Data - The main positions were net short, and the shorts were increasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic pigs may decrease this week after the holiday, and the demand is also suppressed by the macro - environment and high - temperature weather. The market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand, and the pig price will maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2509 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. - The spot price is at a discount to the futures price, and the inventory shows an increasing trend, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals show that supply and demand may both decrease this week, and the pig price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, the inventory is increasing, the price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. The expected price range of LH2509 is 14,100 - 14,500 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. The spot price oscillates weakly in the short term, and the futures follow a similar pattern [12]. - The short - term decline in pork demand after the May Day holiday and the decrease in both supply and demand lead to a weakly oscillating spot price, but the decline space may be limited due to the decrease in slaughter [12]. - The low - level pig - raising profit still exists in the short term, and the high slaughter enthusiasm of large pigs and the decrease in both supply and demand suppress the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price may oscillate weakly after the May Day holiday, and the futures will maintain a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term. When the price stabilizes depends on the future supply reduction and demand recovery [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The year - on - year decline in domestic pig inventory and the limited decline space of the domestic pig spot price [13]. - **Bearish factors**: The pessimistic expectation of the domestic macro - environment due to the China - US tariff war and the entry of the pig and pork consumption market into the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory data**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - **Price data**: The national average spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract was - 305 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures [10]. 3.5 Position Data The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit the upward movement of prices. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will support the price to some extent. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract, which has a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but attention should be paid to macro - emotional impacts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 24, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 284 lots. The short - term decline space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the weight of live pigs continues to decrease. The market sentiment of the main contract (LH2509) on that day was still acceptable, with a position of about 60,000 lots. The highest price was 14,495 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in an oscillatory manner. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction in the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices before the third - quarter peak season. The long - side logic includes the room for increasing frozen - product inventory, strong spot - price toughness, limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and the approaching of the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase month by month until December, which will limit price increases. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will support the price. If the farming sector continues to reduce the weight of pigs or keeps the weight stable, the price may be adjusted weakly in an oscillatory manner. For the 09 contract with a large premium over the spot price, a light - short position can be considered, but risk prevention should be noted [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On July 24, 2025, compared with the previous day, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,550 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the 03 contract increased by 155 yuan to 13,730 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14%; the 05 contract increased by 360 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.6%; the 07 contract remained unchanged at 14,010 yuan/ton; the 09 contract decreased by 225 yuan to 14,365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.54%; the 11 contract decreased by 90 yuan to 14,210 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.63% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the live - pig main contract in the Henan region, the price differences between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Futures Morning Report - Report Date: July 23, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Advisory Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs may decrease this week after the May Day holiday, and the demand for fresh pork is also suppressed. The market is expected to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, and the pig price will return to a volatile pattern in the short term. The price of LH2509 is expected to fluctuate between 14,100 and 14,500 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - China's tariff increase on pork imports from the US and Canada boosts market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in large - pig slaughter. The supply and demand of pigs both decline, and the spot price is short - term volatile and weak, and the futures follow the same pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [13]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the consumption of pork enters the off - season after May Day [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a 0.8% month - on - month and 2.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of February, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.66 million heads, with no month - on - month change and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Price**: The national average spot price is 14,310 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2509 contract is - 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards [10]. 5. Position Data - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing [10].