1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market will return to the basic pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" after the Spring Festival. The pig - price upward space is fundamentally restricted, but there won't be a panic - driven sharp decline due to the strong expectation of pig - price recovery in the second half of 2026. Short - term pig prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with low possibilities of a significant upward or downward trend. However, be vigilant that the strong bullish sentiment may bring forward the upward trend to April or May, thus over - consuming the subsequent real market [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months (March, January, May, July, September, November) were 13140, 10740, 11500, 12220, 13140, 13065 respectively, with price drops of - 140, - 155, - 40, - 10, - 40, - 95 and corresponding percentage drops of - 1.05%, - 1.42%, - 0.35%, - 0.08%, - 0.30%, - 0.72% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 776, 14122, 38318, 5391, 3861, 1809 respectively, and the open interests were 2673, 30077, 136660, 49418, 37022, 23553 respectively. The open - interest changes were - 22, - 5078, - 4468, - 351, - 443, - 365 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, 11 - 1 months were 2400, - 760, - 720, - 920, 75, - 75 respectively, compared to the previous values of 2385, - 645, - 690, - 950, 20, - 120 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in different regions (Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning) were 12.49, 11.3, 11.29, 11.67, 11.74, 11.5 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.06, 0.31, - 22.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0 compared to the previous values [2]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1027, with no change [2].

（来源：大佑农饲料） 市场的"寒冬"却似乎还在延续。2026年开年，生猪市场就扔下了一枚"深水炸弹"：能繁母猪偷偷在涨， 而生猪存栏却在下降，这种"存栏分化"的怪象，直接为2-3月的猪价埋下了伏笔。 面对即将到来的"断崖式"挑战，猪价是深不见底的下跌，还是绝处逢生的反弹？本文结合卓创资讯等机 构的最新数据，为你独家揭秘未来两个月的猪价路线图。 一、 1月"异象"：母猪增，生猪减，市场在憋什么大招？ 刚过去的1月，养殖端的数据出现了罕见的背离，这不仅是数字的游戏，更是市场情绪的直观反映。 1. 能繁母猪：竟然还涨了0.38%！按理说，在大家都亏损的时候，应该淘汰母猪过冬才对。但监测数据 显示，1月能繁母猪存栏环比微增。这背后的推手有两个： · 仔猪涨价了：7公斤仔猪价格冲到了291.96元/头，环比暴涨34%。看到卖仔猪能赚钱，养殖户补栏的积 极性一下子就上来了。 来源：市场资讯 如果说存栏数据是内因，那春节消费就是最大的外因。但2026年的春节，这个外因彻底"哑火"了。 往年这时候，屠宰场应该是热火朝天抢猪备货，但今年却冷清得可怕。数据显示，截至2月9日，样本企 业生猪屠宰量累计增幅仅35.29%，远低于往年 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual strategy opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the potential for price rebounds in 2026 despite a year-on-year decline in pig prices due to production capacity adjustments and industry losses [1] Group 1: CPI and Pork Prices - In December, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising by 1.1%, while pork prices fell by 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, with food prices increasing by 0.3%, but pork prices decreased by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Fruit and Vegetable Prices - Seasonal increases in fresh fruit prices are the main driver of the current food CPI, while vegetable price growth has slowed [2] - January vegetable prices averaged 5.59 yuan/kg, up 6.37% year-on-year, with expectations for continued price increases in Q1 due to the later timing of the Spring Festival and weather impacts [2] - January fruit prices averaged approximately 7.88 yuan/kg, up 8.87% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2020 [2] Group 3: Feed Raw Material Prices - In January, the average price of corn was 2364.6 yuan/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month and 10.55% year-on-year, with expectations for a stable price range in 2026 [3] - The average price of soybean meal was 3198.97 yuan/ton, up 1.94% month-on-month and 3.82% year-on-year, with a forecast of slight upward movement in 2026 [3] - Overall, the prices of feed raw materials are expected to remain stable, indicating no significant increase in breeding cost pressures [3] Group 4: Pig Farming Outlook - Following a price increase in late December 2025, pork prices are expected to face downward pressure after the Spring Festival due to seasonal consumption patterns [4] - The annual average price of pigs is projected to decline year-on-year, although there may be temporary rebounds influenced by seasonal disease impacts [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while pig prices are still declining, the rate of decline is slowing down, with some regions even experiencing price stabilization or increases [2] - After the small year, the slaughterhouse operating rate has increased to 48.9%, which is a sign of potential support for pig prices [2] - The upcoming New Year celebrations leave little time for significant price changes, as most procurement activities have already been completed [4] Group 2 - Emotional factors have a greater impact on market dynamics than supply and demand, influencing the rhythm of pig prices [6] - Consumer demand for pork has not met expectations, with a notable decline in consumption due to changing dietary habits and economic factors [7] - Local price increases are not sufficient to drive overall market trends, as the supply pressure from increased slaughtering has limited price growth [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The futures and spot markets of the pig industry show a divergent trend. The main futures contract LH2605 closed slightly up 0.30% to 11,555 yuan/ton, and market sentiment rebounded slightly. However, the spot market remained weak, with the national average price falling to 11.44 yuan/kg. The core contradiction lies in the oversupply situation. [2] - The daily output of large-scale farms increased to 351,400 heads, while the sales of slaughtered pork were sluggish, and demand was weak. The self-breeding and self-raising model in the industry has fallen into losses. It is expected that there is no strong basis for a short-term rebound in pig prices, and the market tomorrow may show a narrow-range fluctuation and a generally stable trend. [4] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,285, 10,845, 11,555, 12,260, 13,210, and 13,150 respectively, with price increases of 80, 100, 85, 100, 95, and 120, and increases of 0.61%, 0.93%, 0.74%, 0.82%, 0.72%, and 0.92% respectively. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 406, 22,688, 52,452, 7,703, 5,579, and 2,487 respectively, and the open interests were 2,662, 46,259, 147,570, 50,197, 37,733, and 24,032 respectively. The changes in open interests were +174, -5,721, -1,979, +172, -275, and -15 respectively. [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,440, -710, -705, -950, 60, and -135 respectively, compared with previous values of 2,460, -725, -690, -955, 85, and -175 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 11.94, 10.8, 11.21, 11.47, 11.47, and 11.6 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.12, -21.6, -0.24, 0, 0, and -0.09 respectively. [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 727 on the previous day, with no change from two days ago. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current pig market is characterized by a "peak season not thriving" scenario, with prices continuing to decline despite the approach of the traditional consumption peak before the Spring Festival [1][6]. Group 1: Price Overview - The overall national pig market shows a pattern of "stability in the north and weakness in the south," with prices in the northeast remaining stable while other regions experience declines [3]. - The lowest average price is in Xinjiang at 10.50 yuan/kg, while Zhejiang has the highest at 12.62 yuan/kg [3]. Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - In the northeast, prices are stable, with Liaoning at 12.44 yuan/kg (up 0.01 yuan), while Heilongjiang is at 11.63 yuan/kg (down 0.13 yuan) [4]. - The north China region remains stable, with Hebei at 12.41 yuan/kg (down 0.06 yuan) [4]. - In east China, Shandong's price is 12.62 yuan/kg (up 0.07 yuan), while other areas show mixed trends [4]. - The central region is weak, with Henan at 12.36 yuan/kg (down 0.07 yuan) [4]. - South China shows stability with slight weakness, as Guangdong is at 11.83 yuan/kg (up 0.12 yuan) [4]. - The southwest region is experiencing significant declines, with Sichuan at 10.91 yuan/kg (down 0.30 yuan) [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics Analysis - The supply side is characterized by a concentration of large pigs being released by farmers, leading to a temporary surplus in the market [6]. - The average price of large pigs is declining, with a national average drop of 1.26% [6]. - Demand is not keeping pace with supply, as consumer purchasing intentions are weak, and restaurants are cautious in restocking [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term pig prices are expected to remain weak, with limited potential for a significant rebound [7]. - The northern market is generally weak, with price declines expected to continue, while the eastern region shows internal divergence [7]. - If pre-festival consumption does not exceed expectations, pig prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in pork prices is attributed to an oversupply situation, despite an increase in consumption as the Spring Festival approaches [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The increase in slaughterhouse operating rates has risen to over 40%, but this is still below the expected levels of over 50% typically seen during the Spring Festival [5]. - Overall pork consumption is declining, influenced by changing dietary habits towards healthier options and a more dispersed consumption pattern due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year [5]. - There is an unexpected increase in the number of pigs being sold ahead of the Spring Festival, contrary to the usual practice of holding back livestock for peak demand [6][8]. Market Sentiment - Despite the current drop in prices, the sentiment among farmers remains optimistic regarding future price increases, as indicated by rising prices for piglets [10]. - The market has experienced a phenomenon where both price increases and decreases occur earlier than expected, driven by emotional responses from market participants [11]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that while there may be a decline in prices post-Spring Festival, the pressure on prices will not be severe due to reduced selling pressure after the holiday [8]. - The market is anticipated to experience a rebound in prices around April or May, as the emotional exuberance among farmers may lead to a premature price increase [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as the secondary fattening period in southern China ends and the demand for cured meat and sausages also finishes. Although the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the overall future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may see an increase in supply and a weakening demand expectation, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamental situation of live pigs: The end of the secondary fattening period in southern China leads to a short - term increase in the number of pigs for sale, suppressing pig prices. The demand for cured meat and sausages has ended, and overall, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but pork consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, and future consumption is not optimistic. The market this week may have more supply and weaker demand expectations, and pig prices may enter a short - term volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms in the middle of the month and the dynamic changes in the spot price of the secondary fattening market, which may support the bottom of the futures market. The view is neutral. - The basis: The national average spot price is 11,710 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2605 contract is 145 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. This is a bullish factor. - Inventory: As of December 31, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, a monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. This is a bearish factor. - The disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward. This is a bearish factor. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. This is a bearish factor. - Expectation: In the near term, both the supply and demand of live pigs are increasing. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and rebound this week and generally maintain a range - bound pattern. The LH2605 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the peak demand season. With the end of secondary fattening in southern China, the number of live pigs for sale has increased, and the supply expectation has increased. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. - As the demand for cured meat at the end of the year gradually fades, the live pig spot market enters a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. The room for further price decline in the short term may be limited, and the price may bottom out and return to a range - bound pattern. - The loss of domestic live pig breeding profit has fluctuated slightly recently and remains slightly in the red in the short term. The enthusiasm for selling large pigs has increased in the short term, and the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand suppresses the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot markets. - The live pig spot price is weak in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate and decline in the short term, bottom out and rebound in the medium term, or maintain a range - bound pattern. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The domestic demand for live pigs is still in the peak season at the end of the year; the domestic pig - grain ratio has fallen to the historical low range. - Bearish factors: The secondary fattening of live pigs at the end of the year in China has increased, and there is concentrated slaughter; the year - on - year decrease in the live pig inventory is lower than expected. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from February 2 to February 9, including the prices of near - month 2603 and main 2605 contracts, the number of warehouse receipts, and the spot prices of outer - ternary live pigs in different regions [14]. - It also shows the historical trends of live pig basis, contract spreads, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs, and the prices of related indicators on the supply side (such as the average price of binary sows, 7kg piglets, and culled sows; piglet feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate; monthly live pig inventory and its month - on - month trend; monthly inventory of breeding sows; live pig inventory of large - scale farms; monthly pork import trend; fattening cost; feed profit expectation; live pig slaughter volume and average weight; slaughter profit; self - breeding and self - raising and purchased piglet profit; price difference between pigs and other meats), on the slaughter side (such as the average price of白条, the price difference between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, the average price in 36 cities), on the demand side (such as the annual pork consumption volume), the pig - grain ratio, and the historical trends of live pig price increases and decreases, and the situation of live pig storage and release [15][17][23][50][60][63][67]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the document

Group 1 - The average price of external three-yuan live pigs in China on February 6, 2026, is 12.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The average price of piglets is 25.54 yuan/kg, up by 0.01 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of white strip meat is 16.66 yuan/kg, which has increased by 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment is improving due to pre-holiday stocking expectations, leading to increased purchasing activity from slaughter enterprises [2] - There is a widening price gap between northern and southern regions, which is causing an increase in the transfer of pig sources from the north to the south [2] - Short-term expectations indicate an increase in the output from large-scale farms, but the overall upward momentum for pig prices remains limited due to pressure in high-price areas [2]

Core Viewpoint - The pork prices are experiencing a significant decline despite the approaching Spring Festival, with prices nearing 12 yuan per kilogram, which is unexpected during this peak consumption period [2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in pork prices is primarily due to the supply side, where farmers are unable to maintain their stock levels, leading to increased market supply [2][5]. - In January, the pork market showed a tight supply-demand balance due to farmers reducing their stock, which initially pushed prices up [3]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the influx of migrant workers returning home has led to a slowdown in pork consumption, creating a disparity between supply in the north and south regions of China [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - Consumer behavior has shifted, with pork consumption becoming more dispersed and less concentrated compared to previous years, resulting in weaker price support [6]. - Historically, pork consumption peaks before the Spring Festival, but recent trends indicate a shorter duration of high demand, which affects price stability [6]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - The likelihood of continuous price decline is low, as historical trends suggest that pre-festival consumption will still provide some support to prices, preventing a significant drop [9]. - A moderate price increase is anticipated, with potential short-term spikes around the festival, but overall price growth may be limited due to increased supply and changing consumption patterns [10]. - The current market dynamics may pose risks for future price recovery, as uniform market expectations could lead to synchronized actions among farmers, potentially increasing supply pressure in the latter half of the year [12].