1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The national average price of live pigs is reported at 9.37 yuan per kilogram, continuing a slight downward trend, and the industry remains in deep - seated losses. The core contradiction in the current market lies in abundant supply and weak demand. In the short term, without obvious positive support for demand, pig prices are expected to continue to maintain a narrow bottom - grinding pattern, and market sentiment is cautious [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13425, 13195, 9965, 11180, 12520, and 12905 respectively. The price changes were - 160, 3290, 130, - 70, - 20, and - 50, with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.18%, 33.22%, 1.32%, - 0.62%, - 0.16%, and - 0.39% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 7603, 4894, 209062, 63757, 29355, and 10753 respectively. The open interests were 27564, 3481, 202586, 88401, 80672, and 47631 respectively, with changes of 1410, 3481, - 16816, 4219, 3524, and 1693 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 months are 230, 3230, - 1215, - 1340, - 385, and - 520 respectively, compared to previous values of 3680, 70, - 1415, - 1290, - 415, and - 630 [2] Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.46, 9.36, 9.32, 10.05, 9.11, and 9.11 yuan per ton respectively, with price changes of - 0.12, - 18.8, 0, 0, 0, and 0 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 483, a decrease of 526 compared to two days ago [2]

Summary of the Conference Call on Swine Industry - February 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the swine industry, specifically focusing on the sales report for February 2026, highlighting the performance of 13 sample pig enterprises which collectively sold 12.4365 million pigs, a month-on-month decrease of 26% but a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [1][2] Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - The sales volume of live pigs has shown a significant slowdown, with the growth rate dropping to single digits, indicating that the peak supply period is gradually passing [2] - The average selling price of commodity pigs decreased by 8% to 10% month-on-month and by 20% to 25% year-on-year, with an average price around 11.5 yuan/kg, indicating the market is in a bottom-testing phase [1][3] Inventory Levels - The industry inventory is currently at a low level, with the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens at its lowest in nearly three years. After the Spring Festival, the industry entered an active destocking phase [1][2] - The average weight of pigs sold has slightly increased due to holiday factors, but overall, the industry is experiencing significant overselling, with major companies like Muyuan reporting a decrease in average weight by 0.6-0.7 kg compared to the same period in 2025 [1][3] Market Sentiment and Price Forecast - Current market sentiment is pessimistic, with cautious replenishment behavior observed. Participants are concerned that pig prices may continue to decline, potentially falling below 10 yuan/kg, which is affecting their willingness to restock [4] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) remains low at 88.34, significantly below levels seen in early 2025, indicating a lack of confidence in the market [4] Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that as the theoretical supply peak passes around April, the industry will experience reduced supply pressure, potentially leading to a widely recognized price bottom. This could trigger a rebound in pig prices, with a turning point expected between April and early May [5] Additional Important Insights - The sales data for February reflects the impact of the Spring Festival, with a notable month-on-month decline in sales volume, particularly for piglets, which saw a 38% decrease month-on-month and a 50.4% decrease year-on-year [2][3] - The average selling price for piglets has also dropped below 300 yuan/head, influenced by the decline in prices for fattened pigs [1][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the pig market: Cautiously bearish [3] - Investment rating for the egg market: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pig market is in a pattern of relatively loose supply, and the fundamental situation of supply and demand has not improved fundamentally. The probability of a significant short - term rebound in pig prices is low [2] - The egg spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The increase in raw material costs supports the egg price, and the low - price egg drives the improvement of sales. The market sentiment has warmed up [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2605 contract yesterday was 11,200 yuan/ton, a change of +40.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of +0.36% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of ternary live pigs was 10.35 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 10.63 yuan/kg, a change of +0.02 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.13 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On March 9, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 123.78, down 0.67 points from last Friday. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 17.06 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - The domestic live pig spot price maintains a narrow - range shock trend, with regional price differences showing a pattern of mixed rises and falls. The prices in the northern main producing areas are mainly declining, while the spot performance in the East China region is relatively strong [2] - The current pig price is at a low - level operation range. The willingness of farmers to replenish the stock continues to weaken, and the decline of piglet prices further expands. The number of live pig sales by farmers has increased month - on - month, and the downstream consumption is weak, which restricts the sales progress [2] - After the pig price drops to a low level, factors such as the entry of secondary fattening, the increase of farmers' resistance to selling, and the increase of slaughter enterprises' low - price active segmentation and warehousing operations show signs of bottom - support [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2605 contract yesterday was 3427 yuan/500 kg, a change of +38.00 yuan from the previous trading day, with a change of +1.12% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.87 yuan/jin, a change of +0.07 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin, a change of +0.10; in Hebei, it was 2.84 yuan/jin, a change of +0.11 [3] - Inventory: On March 9, 2026, the inventory in the production link was 1.16 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from yesterday, with a decrease of 7.94%. The inventory in the circulation link was 1.42 days, unchanged from yesterday [3] Market Analysis - The egg spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The increase in raw material costs supports the egg price, and the low - price egg drives the improvement of sales. The market sentiment has warmed up [4] - In some areas, the supply of small - sized eggs is tight, which further boosts the market's bullish sentiment. As the circulation speed accelerates, the inventory in the production area has decreased, and the bullish expectation may promote further inventory digestion. The arrival pressure in the sales area is limited, and the inventory decline is relatively gentle. The short - term improvement in terminal consumption is limited, and attention should be paid to the inhibitory effect of the slight increase in egg price on sales [5] Strategy - Neutral [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market will return to the basic pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" after the Spring Festival. The pig - price upward space is fundamentally restricted, but there won't be a panic - driven sharp decline due to the strong expectation of pig - price recovery in the second half of 2026. Short - term pig prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with low possibilities of a significant upward or downward trend. However, be vigilant that the strong bullish sentiment may bring forward the upward trend to April or May, thus over - consuming the subsequent real market [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months (March, January, May, July, September, November) were 13140, 10740, 11500, 12220, 13140, 13065 respectively, with price drops of - 140, - 155, - 40, - 10, - 40, - 95 and corresponding percentage drops of - 1.05%, - 1.42%, - 0.35%, - 0.08%, - 0.30%, - 0.72% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 776, 14122, 38318, 5391, 3861, 1809 respectively, and the open interests were 2673, 30077, 136660, 49418, 37022, 23553 respectively. The open - interest changes were - 22, - 5078, - 4468, - 351, - 443, - 365 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, 11 - 1 months were 2400, - 760, - 720, - 920, 75, - 75 respectively, compared to the previous values of 2385, - 645, - 690, - 950, 20, - 120 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in different regions (Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning) were 12.49, 11.3, 11.29, 11.67, 11.74, 11.5 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.06, 0.31, - 22.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0 compared to the previous values [2]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1027, with no change [2].

Core Insights - The pig market is experiencing a paradoxical situation where the number of breeding sows is increasing while the overall pig inventory is decreasing, indicating a potential price fluctuation in the coming months [1][2] Group 1: January Anomalies - In January, the number of breeding sows increased by 0.38%, contrary to expectations of culling due to losses, driven by a significant rise in piglet prices, which surged by 34% to 291.96 yuan per head [2] - The reduction in losses for self-breeding operations, which saw a 96.57% decrease in deficit, encouraged farmers to retain sows instead of culling them [2] - Conversely, the overall pig inventory decreased by 0.57%, attributed to previous months' production cuts and a surge in pig sales in January, leading to an emptying of farms [2] Group 2: Impact of the Spring Festival - The Spring Festival, typically a peak time for pig sales, failed to stimulate demand this year, with slaughter volumes only increasing by 35.29% compared to previous years, indicating a lack of market activity [3] - The oversupply of pork in the market means that even with the holiday, prices are unlikely to see significant support, leading to a bearish outlook for pig prices [4] Group 3: Price Trends for February and March - The price trajectory for February and March is expected to follow a pattern of two declines followed by a rebound, with the first phase in February seeing a significant increase in daily slaughter rates by 33.30%, leading to a price drop [5] - The second phase in early to mid-March is predicted to be particularly challenging, with prices potentially falling to between 11.0 and 11.4 yuan per kilogram due to consumer fatigue after the holiday [5] - The final phase in late March is anticipated to see a rebound in prices, driven by increased demand from slaughterhouses and speculative buying from investors, with prices expected to rise to between 11.6 and 12.0 yuan per kilogram [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities emphasizes the dual strategy opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the potential for price rebounds in 2026 despite a year-on-year decline in pig prices due to production capacity adjustments and industry losses [1] Group 1: CPI and Pork Prices - In December, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with food prices rising by 1.1%, while pork prices fell by 14.6% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.2%, with food prices increasing by 0.3%, but pork prices decreased by 1.7% [1] Group 2: Fruit and Vegetable Prices - Seasonal increases in fresh fruit prices are the main driver of the current food CPI, while vegetable price growth has slowed [2] - January vegetable prices averaged 5.59 yuan/kg, up 6.37% year-on-year, with expectations for continued price increases in Q1 due to the later timing of the Spring Festival and weather impacts [2] - January fruit prices averaged approximately 7.88 yuan/kg, up 8.87% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2020 [2] Group 3: Feed Raw Material Prices - In January, the average price of corn was 2364.6 yuan/ton, up 0.69% month-on-month and 10.55% year-on-year, with expectations for a stable price range in 2026 [3] - The average price of soybean meal was 3198.97 yuan/ton, up 1.94% month-on-month and 3.82% year-on-year, with a forecast of slight upward movement in 2026 [3] - Overall, the prices of feed raw materials are expected to remain stable, indicating no significant increase in breeding cost pressures [3] Group 4: Pig Farming Outlook - Following a price increase in late December 2025, pork prices are expected to face downward pressure after the Spring Festival due to seasonal consumption patterns [4] - The annual average price of pigs is projected to decline year-on-year, although there may be temporary rebounds influenced by seasonal disease impacts [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while pig prices are still declining, the rate of decline is slowing down, with some regions even experiencing price stabilization or increases [2] - After the small year, the slaughterhouse operating rate has increased to 48.9%, which is a sign of potential support for pig prices [2] - The upcoming New Year celebrations leave little time for significant price changes, as most procurement activities have already been completed [4] Group 2 - Emotional factors have a greater impact on market dynamics than supply and demand, influencing the rhythm of pig prices [6] - Consumer demand for pork has not met expectations, with a notable decline in consumption due to changing dietary habits and economic factors [7] - Local price increases are not sufficient to drive overall market trends, as the supply pressure from increased slaughtering has limited price growth [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The futures and spot markets of the pig industry show a divergent trend. The main futures contract LH2605 closed slightly up 0.30% to 11,555 yuan/ton, and market sentiment rebounded slightly. However, the spot market remained weak, with the national average price falling to 11.44 yuan/kg. The core contradiction lies in the oversupply situation. [2] - The daily output of large-scale farms increased to 351,400 heads, while the sales of slaughtered pork were sluggish, and demand was weak. The self-breeding and self-raising model in the industry has fallen into losses. It is expected that there is no strong basis for a short-term rebound in pig prices, and the market tomorrow may show a narrow-range fluctuation and a generally stable trend. [4] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,285, 10,845, 11,555, 12,260, 13,210, and 13,150 respectively, with price increases of 80, 100, 85, 100, 95, and 120, and increases of 0.61%, 0.93%, 0.74%, 0.82%, 0.72%, and 0.92% respectively. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 406, 22,688, 52,452, 7,703, 5,579, and 2,487 respectively, and the open interests were 2,662, 46,259, 147,570, 50,197, 37,733, and 24,032 respectively. The changes in open interests were +174, -5,721, -1,979, +172, -275, and -15 respectively. [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,440, -710, -705, -950, 60, and -135 respectively, compared with previous values of 2,460, -725, -690, -955, 85, and -175 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 11.94, 10.8, 11.21, 11.47, 11.47, and 11.6 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.12, -21.6, -0.24, 0, 0, and -0.09 respectively. [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 727 on the previous day, with no change from two days ago. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current pig market is characterized by a "peak season not thriving" scenario, with prices continuing to decline despite the approach of the traditional consumption peak before the Spring Festival [1][6]. Group 1: Price Overview - The overall national pig market shows a pattern of "stability in the north and weakness in the south," with prices in the northeast remaining stable while other regions experience declines [3]. - The lowest average price is in Xinjiang at 10.50 yuan/kg, while Zhejiang has the highest at 12.62 yuan/kg [3]. Group 2: Regional Market Analysis - In the northeast, prices are stable, with Liaoning at 12.44 yuan/kg (up 0.01 yuan), while Heilongjiang is at 11.63 yuan/kg (down 0.13 yuan) [4]. - The north China region remains stable, with Hebei at 12.41 yuan/kg (down 0.06 yuan) [4]. - In east China, Shandong's price is 12.62 yuan/kg (up 0.07 yuan), while other areas show mixed trends [4]. - The central region is weak, with Henan at 12.36 yuan/kg (down 0.07 yuan) [4]. - South China shows stability with slight weakness, as Guangdong is at 11.83 yuan/kg (up 0.12 yuan) [4]. - The southwest region is experiencing significant declines, with Sichuan at 10.91 yuan/kg (down 0.30 yuan) [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics Analysis - The supply side is characterized by a concentration of large pigs being released by farmers, leading to a temporary surplus in the market [6]. - The average price of large pigs is declining, with a national average drop of 1.26% [6]. - Demand is not keeping pace with supply, as consumer purchasing intentions are weak, and restaurants are cautious in restocking [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term pig prices are expected to remain weak, with limited potential for a significant rebound [7]. - The northern market is generally weak, with price declines expected to continue, while the eastern region shows internal divergence [7]. - If pre-festival consumption does not exceed expectations, pig prices are likely to fluctuate at low levels [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in pork prices is attributed to an oversupply situation, despite an increase in consumption as the Spring Festival approaches [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The increase in slaughterhouse operating rates has risen to over 40%, but this is still below the expected levels of over 50% typically seen during the Spring Festival [5]. - Overall pork consumption is declining, influenced by changing dietary habits towards healthier options and a more dispersed consumption pattern due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year [5]. - There is an unexpected increase in the number of pigs being sold ahead of the Spring Festival, contrary to the usual practice of holding back livestock for peak demand [6][8]. Market Sentiment - Despite the current drop in prices, the sentiment among farmers remains optimistic regarding future price increases, as indicated by rising prices for piglets [10]. - The market has experienced a phenomenon where both price increases and decreases occur earlier than expected, driven by emotional responses from market participants [11]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that while there may be a decline in prices post-Spring Festival, the pressure on prices will not be severe due to reduced selling pressure after the holiday [8]. - The market is anticipated to experience a rebound in prices around April or May, as the emotional exuberance among farmers may lead to a premature price increase [11].