Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the price of lithium carbonate rose significantly and then entered a high - level oscillation. The main reason was that on November 6, the Natural Resources Department of Jiangxi Province released the publicity of the evaluation of the transfer right - of - use fee for Zhenxiawo Mine, which increased the cost and limited the supply increment in November. However, bulls were cautious near the previous high, and the selling pressure was strong, leading to the high - level oscillation of the price [4]. - In the later stage, there will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. From the bull's perspective, there is no expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine's resumption in the short term, with a bottleneck in supply increment. Terminal power demand is strong, inventory is accelerating depletion, and the fundamentals are improving. Also, driven by policies and large industrial orders, the demand for energy storage is expected to increase. From the bear's perspective, terminal power demand may decline in December, and the increment of imported resources is clear, which may cool down the fundamentals [4][13]. Group 3: Summary by Sections Market Data - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the price of imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from 147 to 140 dollars/ton, a decline of 5.10%; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 dollars/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from 904 to 891 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.44%; the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 8.23 to 8.74 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.15%; the price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased from 8.05 to 8.57 million yuan/ton, an increase of 6.54%; the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 123,777 to 121,140 tons, a decline of 2.13% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of November 14, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 27,170 lots, with the latest matching transaction price of 86,880 yuan/ton. The holding scale of the main contract 2601 was 516,800 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of November 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 23,850 tons, an increase of 385 tons from the previous period. Zhenxiawo Mine was still shut down, and it was difficult to resume production in November. Although the supply of lithium concentrate was abundant, the processing capacity of spodumene - based lithium production had a bottleneck, and the output of northern salt lakes would weaken with the cold weather, so the short - term supply shortage was difficult to ease [7]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import from Chile was about 1.08 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%; the import from Argentina was 6,948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. In October, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 16,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 46%. With the ramp - up of Zijin Mining's 3Q project, there was a strong expectation of an increase in imports from Argentina [8]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In September, the total import of lithium ore was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; the import from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; the import from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%; the import from South Africa increased significantly to about 108,700 tons [8][9]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of November 14, the total output of lithium iron phosphate was about 99,906 tons, with an operating rate of 87.92%, an increase of 2.68 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 39,732 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. The total output of ternary materials was about 19,784 tons, with an operating rate of 51.77%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,090 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. The price of ternary materials was relatively stable, and the price of lithium iron phosphate increased [10]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From November 1 to 9, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 265,000, a year - on - year decrease of 5% compared with the same period in November last year and a month - on - month increase of 16%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 1,041.5 million, a year - on - year increase of 21%. There were large fluctuations in the delivery rhythm of car companies. Policies on new - energy vehicle subsidies varied among different provinces and cities [11]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2,637 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 22,140 tons, a decrease of about 160 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1,273 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 27,170 lots, a decrease of 162 lots from the previous week [12]. This Week's Outlook - There will be a fierce game between bulls and bears, and the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The short - term supply bottleneck and strong terminal demand support the bullish view, while the possible decline in terminal power demand in December and the clear increment of imported resources support the bearish view [13]. Industry News - Fosu Technology plans to jointly establish a project company with Zijin Lithium Yuan and others to invest in a battery - grade lithium sulfide pilot - scale platform project. The project company has a registered capital of 100 million yuan, and Fosu Technology will contribute 5 million yuan, accounting for 5% of the equity. The planned total investment of the project is 113 million yuan, and a 100 - ton/year lithium sulfide production line will be built [14]. - Posco Holdings will invest $765 million to acquire a 30% stake in the lithium business of Mineral Resources Ltd. in Australia and will form a joint venture. Posco Holdings will have partial ownership of two mines in Western Australia and will obtain lithium concentrate equivalent to its equity [14]. - After the technological transformation of Shilei Fluorine Materials is completed, the production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate of New宙邦 will increase to 36,000 tons/year. Currently, the production capacity is 24,000 tons/year [14]. - Shenzhen Xingxing is arranging the installation of equipment before the production of 7,200 - ton lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity. The construction of this capacity was basically completed in mid - 2024 but was not put into production due to low market prices [14]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced the suspension of the implementation of export controls on some items including lithium batteries from November 7, 2025, to November 10, 2026 [14].