Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic and overseas lead prices showed different trends, with the domestic lead price stronger than the overseas one due to the increase in overseas inventories and the weak operation of LME lead [2]. - The Fed officials released dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts again. The gold price remained high, and the market sentiment was still pessimistic [2]. - The lead waste required for both primary and secondary lead remained in short supply. The processing fee of lead concentrate for primary lead continued to decline, and the processing fee of silver - containing lead concentrate was revised down again due to the new high of silver price, indicating that the raw material supply at the smelting end remained tight [2]. - In the short - term, lead is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited upside space. In the long - term, the possible consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed will be beneficial to the lead price, and the domestic macro situation is also optimistic due to supply - side structural adjustment and lithium battery export restrictions [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Price Trend**: The domestic lead price was stronger than the overseas one this week because of the increase in overseas inventories and the weak operation of LME lead [2]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Fed officials released dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The gold price remained high, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [2]. - **Supply Side**: Lead waste and lead concentrate were in short supply. Primary lead had stable production due to by - product benefits but was not satisfied with the processing fee of imported ore. Secondary lead had low production willingness due to the small amount of scrap batteries [2]. - **Near - term Trading Logic**: The domestic demand in October was partly consumed by September policies and pre - holiday stockpiling. The lead import window opened, and the supply might be alleviated in the long run. Lead inventories might start to accumulate after the National Day, capping the upside of lead prices. In the short - term, lead would fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside [7]. - **Long - term Trading Expectation**: The possible consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed would be beneficial to the lead price, but the overseas macro impact on lead prices was relatively weak. The domestic macro situation was optimistic due to supply - side structural adjustment and lithium battery export restrictions [9]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Option Strategy**: Sell wide - straddle options to collect premiums and stabilize returns [11]. - **Short - term Futures Strategy**: The current Shanghai lead main contract is in a narrow - range oscillation. The pressure level is around 17,300 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 16,600 yuan/ton. Adopt the strategy of high - selling and low - buying within the range. Try to go long lightly at 16,500 - 16,700 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 16,400 yuan/ton; try to go short at 17,100 - 17,200 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The lead basis fluctuates little, so no basis strategy is recommended. The calendar spread is stable, so no calendar spread strategy is recommended. The lead - zinc spread is stable, and an internal - external positive spread can be tried when the export window opens [13][14][15]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, short the Shanghai lead main futures contract at 17,400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 75% [16]. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, long the Shanghai lead main futures contract at 16,500 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% [16]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government shutdown has lasted for more than half a month, and the Senate's tenth vote on the temporary appropriation bill on October 16 still failed, with no sign of an end to the shutdown in the short - term [17]. - **Negative Information**: LME lead inventories increased to 250,400 tons [18]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The latest price of SMM 1 lead daily average was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.3%. The price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.3%. The price of imported lead concentrate was 16,520.78 yuan/ton, down 111.89 yuan/ton or 0.67% [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The annual rate of China's Q3 GDP and the annual rate of the US unadjusted CPI in September will be announced [19]. 3. Disk Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - **Domestic Market**: This week, the lead price oscillated within a narrow range at a high level, with strong bottom support, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton. Currently, profitable positions are mainly long in net positions, and foreign capital also focuses on long positions, indicating that the lead market in various institutions is mainly based on a long - term logic [19]. - **Domestic Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic basis structure was stable. The Shanghai lead calendar spread structure deviated slightly due to low trading volume but generally maintained a C - structure [22]. - **Overseas Market**: LME lead was weak this week, closing at $1,972.5/ton as of 15:00 on Friday. In terms of total positions, investment companies and credit institutions accounted for the majority of the positions. The LME lead calendar spread structure was stable, showing a deep C - structure [26][44]. - **Internal - External Spread Tracking**: The internal - external spread narrowed, and the import window opened [46]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The processing fee of lead concentrate continued to decline, and the decline trend of the processing fee of silver - containing lead concentrate was obvious [48]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Information on the relationship between the import profit and loss of lead concentrate and import volume is presented, including relevant data and trends [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Information on the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots is provided [59]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The global lead ore market is in a tight situation this year. Although the smelting willingness of primary lead is still high, the shortage of lead raw materials may be a limiting factor [60]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - This week, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased slightly due to the return to work after the holiday [71].