Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing upward price movement due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and demand recovery, with expectations for continued price support in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - Overnight lead futures in London rose to $1995.5 per ton, an increase of $36 or 1.84%, with a trading volume of 8,762 lots and an open interest of 173,292 lots [1]. - Global trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are enhancing lead's value as a strategic reserve and inflation hedge [1]. - The expectation of a shift in global liquidity and a downward trend in real interest rates are providing valuation support for commodities, attracting funds into metal assets [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident as primary lead production is hampered by maintenance during the Spring Festival, while secondary lead production is delayed due to ongoing losses and environmental restrictions [2]. - Low processing fees for lead concentrate are further restricting raw material availability, contributing to a tight supply situation that supports prices [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand recovery is characterized by a mismatch, with lead-acid battery enterprises resuming operations earlier than the recovery of secondary lead supply, creating a temporary supply-demand gap [3]. - The release of downstream purchasing needs and inventory replenishment, along with overseas restocking demands, is accelerating inventory digestion and further driving up prices [3]. Group 4: Price Forecast - Based on the macro environment, sector interlinkages, and supply-demand dynamics, lead prices are expected to continue a slight upward trend, although the increase may narrow [4]. - The main contract price for lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is anticipated to range between 16,720 and 16,880 yuan per ton, with spot prices likely to follow suit [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly. The increasing losses of secondary lead forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak. The continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed - market state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $45.87/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 101,052 lots, a decrease of 21,807 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 57,029 lots, an increase of 549 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,990 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,690 yuan/ton and closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. After the decline of the lead price, downstream enterprises were in a wait - and - see state. Most downstream enterprises already had a certain inventory, and some were even waiting for the holiday. The overall market trading situation was sluggish [2] Inventory - On February 2, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 2, the LME lead inventory was 204,075 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fell by 4.75% to 103,190 yuan, while London copper dropped to around 13,050 USD [4][17] - Macro sentiment is neutral to bearish due to Trump's nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which has reduced interest rate cut expectations and led to a broader decline in the non-ferrous sector [5][17] - Global copper inventory increased to 1.031 million tons, with domestic copper slightly decreasing by 0.16 thousand tons to 332 thousand tons, while LME copper inventory rose by about 0.45 thousand tons to 175 thousand tons [5][17] - Despite short-term pressure on copper prices from market risk sentiment adjustments, strong supply constraints may limit further price declines, with a reference range for today's main copper futures set at 100,000 to 104,500 yuan per ton [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair has led to tightening liquidity expectations, causing the non-ferrous sector to give back gains [6][18] - Nickel ore shipments from the Philippines are hindered by weather conditions, while supply from Indonesian nickel laterite is also tight due to rainfall [6][18] - The market for nickel iron is showing average transaction performance, and stainless steel faces oversupply pressure with limited terminal demand [6][18] - The operational strategy suggests light short positions in nickel and stainless steel, with reference ranges for nickel at 130,000 to 150,000 yuan per ton and stainless steel at 13,000 to 15,000 yuan per ton [6][18] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The alumina market showed a strong performance last week, with the May contract experiencing a reduction in positions [20][21] - A strike at a Chinese-funded mine in Guinea, which produces 15 million tons annually, has raised concerns about ore supply, although negotiations are ongoing [20][21] - The price of long-term contracts for ore has been reduced to 62 USD per ton, and domestic alumina production costs are expected to decrease significantly starting in March [20][21] - The operational strategy remains focused on short positions due to ongoing oversupply pressures in the alumina market, with reference ranges for the May contract set at 2,550 to 2,900 yuan per ton [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed weakness last Friday, influenced by macroeconomic factors and the nomination of Waller as Fed Chair, which is perceived as hawkish [23][24] - The processing fee for zinc is expected to see a slight increase in February, while supply is projected to decrease by over 50,000 tons due to production days and maintenance [23][24] - Zinc ingot inventories have been declining for two consecutive weeks, primarily due to reduced supply and slow arrivals [23][24] - The operational strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for zinc, with the main contract expected to trade within a range of 24,800 to 26,000 yuan per ton [23][24] Group 5: Lead Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinion on including recycled lead as a deliverable commodity, which may reduce delivery disruptions in the future [24] - The supply of primary lead remains tight, although some previously shut-down smelters are resuming operations, leading to a relatively loose spot supply [24] - The lead market is expected to experience a range-bound trading pattern due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with the main contract projected to operate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a significant pullback, with silver dropping over 20%, attributed to crowded long positions and panic selling triggered by Waller's nomination [27] - The market had seen four consecutive weeks of gains prior to the pullback, leading to a high concentration of long positions that were vulnerable to correction [27] - The operational strategy suggests reducing long positions in gold while remaining cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium [27] - Reference ranges for gold are set at 1,000 to 1,100 yuan per gram, silver at 19,000 to 25,000 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 520 to 570 yuan per gram, and palladium at 395 to 440 yuan per gram [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market is in a transition period from macro - preference driven to fundamental seasonal surplus, and the sign of inventory accumulation is the core factor dragging down prices [1] - In the short - term, the market lacks price - support power due to the approaching Spring Festival, with weak spot market, increased inventory, and strong risk of short - term price correction [5] - In the long - term, the lead market's long - term contradiction lies in the conflict between "shrinking traditional consumption" and "rigid supply supported by by - product profits", and the price center may slowly decline [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level risk - aversion trading has diluted the macro premium of the lead market, and the Fed's hawkish stance has led to a rebound in the US dollar, causing low - elasticity varieties like lead to correct first [1] - The domestic fundamentals show a "double - weak" pattern. As the Spring Festival approaches, lead concentrate trading is light, and the decline in supply is far less than the "cliff - like" decline in downstream demand [1] - The lead market is in a transition from macro - preference driven to fundamental seasonal surplus, and inventory accumulation is the core factor for price decline [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with a light position. The market liquidity dries up before the festival, and the fundamentals lack support, so it is not advisable to hold long positions during the festival [8] - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums using the pre - festival decline in volatility and weak price upward momentum [8] - Arbitrage strategy: None [8] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, short the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton [10] - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, long the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 16,600 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely positive drivers**: Gold hitting a new high has raised the overall valuation of the non - ferrous sector; the opening of the silver import profit window has supported the ore price; the global visible inventory is still at a relatively low level historically, providing some price support [11] - **Likely negative drivers**: The national social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.84 million tons on January 29; the operating rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped significantly, and spot trading stagnated due to logistics shutdown; the Fed's hawkish signal strengthened the US dollar, suppressing the price elasticity of commodities [12] - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, with no change; the weekly average price was 16,950 yuan/ton; the monthly average price was 17,027.17 yuan/ton. The price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,525 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of imported lead concentrate was 16,909.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55%. The average price of recycled lead was 16,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% [13] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: On February 2, the Spring Festival travel rush enters its peak (logistics basically shuts down); on February 3, official manufacturing PMI data will be released (pay attention to demand expectations) [13] - **International**: On February 5, the number of initial jobless claims in the US will be released (pay attention to the fluctuation of the US dollar index); also, pay attention to the change in LME lead cancelled warrants [13] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16,865 yuan/ton this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions [15] - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, LME lead was at 2,009.5 US dollars/ton [19] 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The LME lead maintains a C - structure [29] 3.3.3 Internal - External Price Difference Tracking - Information about the seasonal pattern of lead spot import profit and loss and the relationship between the Shanghai lead main contract closing price and the LME lead closing price is presented [33] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Information about the comparison of primary lead processing fees, the monthly output of SMM lead concentrate, and the domestic lead concentrate processing fees is provided [35] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Information about the import profit and loss of lead concentrate and its correlation with imports, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead concentrate, and the seasonal patterns of refined lead import, export, and lead - battery import and export is presented [37] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Information about the seasonal patterns of domestic lead ingot total supply and actual monthly consumption is provided [44] 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Information about the monthly output of SMM lead concentrate, global lead ore production, electrolytic lead monthly output, recycled refined lead monthly output, and lead production capacity utilization rate is presented [46] 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Information about the seasonal patterns of lead - battery operating rate, lead - battery monthly and weekly operating rates (by type and region), lead - battery export and import volumes, and lead - battery enterprise and dealer finished - product inventory days is provided [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The downstream market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although supply in some areas has decreased due to extreme weather, the demand for electric vehicle batteries has dropped significantly as the Spring Festival approaches, while the demand for automotive batteries is still acceptable. Some enterprises may start pre - festival inventory replenishment. The lead price is expected to rise slightly this week, with an overall operating range of 16,900 - 17,700 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Content Spot Market - On January 27, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 48.53 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,300 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai lead futures main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 62,123 lots, an increase of 13,107 lots from the previous trading day. The持仓 volume was 60,800 lots, a decrease of 2,985 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,165 yuan/ton and a low of 16,945 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, the downstream's attitude towards purchasing was divided, some continued to wait and see due to fear of price drops, the smelter's inventory increased slightly, and the market trading was rather light [2] Inventory - On January 27, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 211,175 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The overall investment strategy for lead is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic lead market shows slight price increases supported by macroeconomic conditions and industry fundamentals, with a focus on liquidity and demand dynamics [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures experienced a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 17,010 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan or 0.21% [1] - The latest London lead price is reported at 2,028 USD, down 7 USD [1] - The average price for 1 lead in the Changjiang market is 17,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Industry Support - The People's Bank of China has signaled liquidity easing through MLF operations, which, along with a weakening US dollar, has boosted the financial attributes of metals and global purchasing power [2] - The recovery in domestic manufacturing PMI and ongoing automotive consumption stimulus policies provide resilience for downstream lead-acid battery demand [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are evident as recycled lead enterprises face environmental and profit pressures, leading to reduced supply [2] - The demand side is supported by seasonal needs for traditional automotive batteries and growth in the emerging energy storage sector, along with pre-holiday stockpiling [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - The current trading atmosphere in the spot market reflects strong demand, with sellers reluctant to sell due to tight supply expectations, leading to high spot prices [4] - Downstream enterprises are primarily engaged in cautious purchasing driven by pre-holiday stock needs, resulting in moderate trading activity [4] Group 5: Short-term Price Outlook - In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern supported by macroeconomic easing, rigid supply, and pre-holiday stockpiling [5] - Key future considerations include the resumption of smelting operations post-holiday, improvements in raw material supply, and the realization of downstream automotive and energy storage demand [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a stage of divergence between "current shortage and expected surplus." The low inventory and cost - loss bottom of secondary lead limit the downside, but without new consumption drivers and with a confirmed long - term surplus, the price will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [3] - In the short - term, the sharp increase in LME inventory eases the overseas squeeze risk and puts pressure on LME lead. In the domestic market, the low inventory leads to a "reluctance to sell" sentiment, but the upside pressure level is difficult to break through [7] - In the long - term, the core contradiction lies in the mismatch between the profit - repair cycle of the secondary lead industry and the downstream demand recession cycle. If the downstream lithium - battery substitution is faster than the supply clearance, the lead price center will move down in the long run [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Strong current situation: Domestic lead ingot social inventory and smelter inventory have both reached 15 - month lows, offsetting the year - end weak consumption. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with primary lead production increasing after maintenance and secondary lead production decreasing due to raw material shortages and environmental protection [3] - Weak expectations: The market expects a supply surplus in 2026, with overseas supply growth exceeding demand growth [3] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: Range operation (buy low and sell high). Buy long positions in the range of 16,750 - 16,800 with a stop - loss at 16,600, and take profit and reverse to short positions around 17,100 [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage (long SHFE and short LME) [9] - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options. Sell put options with an exercise price of 16500 and call options with an exercise price of 17300 [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17400 to hedge against price drops [10] - For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, buy 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16500 to hedge against price increases [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely positive drivers**: Supply disruptions intensify as the Australian Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter's union votes for industrial action, and the weakening US dollar provides a valuation - repair window for non - ferrous metals [11] - **Likely negative drivers**: A sharp increase in LME inventory and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations [12] - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16725 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the average price of recycled lead is 16775 yuan/ton, up 0.45% [13] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The release of China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) on December 22; monitor whether the lead ingot social inventory will show an inflection point of accumulation due to year - end account closing [13] - **International**: The Christmas holiday in Europe and America on December 25 may cause abnormal market fluctuations; follow the progress of the strike at the Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16880 yuan/ton this week. Profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the monthly - spread structure of Shanghai lead maintains a C - structure [15][17] - **International market**: As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead was at 1973 US dollars/ton. The LME lead maintains a C - structure [20][38] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between lead - concentrate monthly production and processing fees [43] 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Examine the import - profit and loss and import volume of lead concentrates, as well as the seasonal patterns of refined - lead and lead - battery imports and exports [45] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of domestic lead ingot total supply and actual consumption [50] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Examine the monthly production of lead concentrates, electrolytic lead, and secondary refined lead, as well as the seasonal patterns of global lead - mine and refined - lead production [52][54][59] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of lead - battery开工率, exports, and imports, and the inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers [61][64]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a game stage between warm macro - expectations, regional supply tightening, and concerns about inventory accumulation. In the short term, lead prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - The core trading point in the short - term is the divergence between extremely low social inventory and "accumulating factory inventory". Be vigilant against the risk of a decline after a surge [6]. - In the long run, the seasonal decline in the scrap battery scrap volume and the reluctance of recyclers to sell provide rigid cost support for recycled lead, restricting the release of recycled lead production and limiting the downside space of lead prices [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: As the US December interest rate decision approaches, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is rising. The weak US data has put pressure on the US dollar index, providing valuation support for the non - ferrous sector [2]. - **Supply - side**: In primary lead, smelters in Yunnan, Anhui, and Jiangxi are under centralized maintenance, tightening the regional spot circulation. In recycled lead, due to environmental permit renewal in Anhui and raw material shortages in Inner Mongolia, the operating rate has dropped to 48.4%, and the supply of scattered orders is extremely scarce [2]. - **Demand - side**: In winter, the automotive starting battery is in the traditional peak season. With the year - end sales push, the operating rate of large battery factories has risen to 74.46%, providing rigid demand support for lead prices [2]. - **Inventory - side**: Social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low of 23,600 tons, giving strong motivation for long - position holders to force short - position holders [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures unilateral**: Go long on dips. The lead price has strong support at the 17,000 yuan/ton level. Buy contracts based on the moving - average support level, with a target price of around 17,500 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to the capital flow before the delivery of the 2512 contract [9]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term contracts and sell far - term contracts). The current low inventory situation benefits near - term contracts, and the spot premium is firm. The Back structure is expected to be maintained [9]. - **Option strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the strong cost support and low inventory, the possibility of a sharp decline in lead prices is very small. Sell put options with a strike price below 16,800 yuan/ton to collect premiums [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, short 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17,400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw material management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, long 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16,500 yuan/ton [10]. 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, weakening the US dollar index and boosting LME lead above $2,000/ton; the market is bullish on upcoming US and Chinese economic data; the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces has dropped to 65.92% due to smelter maintenance, tightening the market supply [11]. - **Negative drivers**: The operating rate of recycled lead has dropped to 48.4%, and the finished - product inventory has reached a new low since 2021; the SMM five - region lead ingot social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low; the automotive battery sector is in the peak season, driving up the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid batteries [12]. - **Neutral drivers**: High lead prices have suppressed downstream consumption; the factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands has increased, with a risk of inventory transfer for delivery; the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been repaired, which may stimulate the resumption of idle capacity [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: China's November CPI annual rate on December 9; the approaching delivery date of the SHFE lead 2512 contract on December 12 [14]. - **International**: US October JOLTs job openings on December 10; the Fed FOMC interest rate decision on December 11 [14]. 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price has been fluctuating strongly this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the SHFE lead monthly spread structure is slightly deviated but generally maintains a C structure [15][17]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, the LME lead price was $2,016/ton, and the LME lead maintains a C structure [20][33]. 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between the monthly output of lead concentrates and processing fees [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyze the import profit and loss of lead concentrates and their relationship with import volume, as well as the seasonal import and export volume of refined lead, lead concentrates, and lead - acid batteries [41][42][44]. 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Analyze the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots [48]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyze the monthly output of lead concentrates, global lead ore production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their seasonal patterns and capacity utilization rates [50][51][56][58]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyze the seasonal operating rate of lead - acid batteries, including monthly and weekly rates, by type and region. Also, analyze the seasonal export and import volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries and the seasonal inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers [65][66][67][68][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has slightly recovered after continuous adjustments. The macro - driving support is neutral, with ongoing stage consolidation and fluctuations, and there are still differences in volatility among different varieties. Attention should be paid to the fundamental drivers of each variety [11]. - The continuous improvement of supply and demand in the non - ferrous metals sector lacks momentum, and the market continues to fluctuate. Changes in interest - rate cut expectations continue to affect market volatility. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the price of tin, while nickel and stainless steel, the weakest in the sector, are at around five - year lows, and the strong - performing varieties still maintain a relatively strong form [12]. - The market should continue to pay attention to the expected changes in liquidity, as well as the expected changes in demand related to the development of domestic and foreign technology, AI, and new energy in the equity market. The non - ferrous metals related to these fields are returning from grand narratives to actual supply and demand, and the marginal boost on the demand side is generally limited. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of varieties empowered by supply - side themes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector has slightly recovered after continuous adjustments. The macro - driving support is neutral, with ongoing stage consolidation and fluctuations, and there are still differences in volatility among different varieties. The market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's stance on interest - rate cuts, economic data in the United States, and geopolitical situations [11][12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The Fed's dovish stance and the launch of the US national - level AI plan increase the expected demand for copper. Although the supply - side tension has eased to some extent, the supply of domestic copper concentrates and electrolytic copper is tight. The price of copper is expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The support range is 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc fluctuates repeatedly. The domestic zinc ingot is expected to reduce production in November, and the demand is relatively weak. It is recommended to buy slightly on dips. The support range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The supply is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips. The support range is 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Alumina**: The supply has increased slightly, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The support range is 2,600 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [15]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the tight supply of scrap materials, it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,300 - 21,500 yuan/ton [15]. - **Tin**: With more macro - positive news and the unstable situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, it is recommended to maintain a bullish operation idea. The support range is 270,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 300,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton [6][15]. - **Lead**: The supply is locally tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell options on both sides. The support range is 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17,500 - 17,600 yuan/ton [7][16]. - **Nickel**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand has slowed down. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously or use covered call strategies. The support range is 112,000 - 114,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton [8][16]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are weak, and the cost support has declined. It is recommended to buy slightly on dips. The support range is 12,200 - 12,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lithium carbonate, nickel, gold, industrial silicon, copper, tin, zinc, aluminum, lead, and aluminum alloy [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and casting aluminum alloy [20][22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Various charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain are presented, including the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are presented, including the ratio changes, basis, and spread trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [58][59][61]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Various charts related to non - ferrous metals options are presented, including the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [74][76][78].