有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 近期美联储集体转鸽，美国9月零售数据不及预期，市场对美联储1 2月降息预期再度升温。美国政府结束停摆，后续美元流动性有望 改善。美国总统特朗普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创 世使命"的国家级人工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增 长的想象空间。基本面方面，铜管需求和产量旺季不旺，前期铜价 上涨一定程度抑制下游采购需求，但当前下游对高铜价的接受度开 ...

| | | 本周沪铜主力合约继续呈现高位震荡格局，宏观对于铜价的扰动整体上有所减弱，但地缘冲突继续带来不稳定因素。中国外交部要求在刚 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 果（金）东部地区驻留的中国公民和企业应立即撤离该地区，目前刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，对矿区的影响需保持关注。基本面上， | | | | 高位震荡调整 | 近期市场消费有好转势头，市场交易较10月整体有所提升，社会库存近期有所回落。近期市场目光开始向矿长单谈判聚焦，另外自由港麦 | 观望 | | 铜 | 85000-88000 | 克莫兰计划于2026年二季度恢复印尼Grasberg矿区大规模生产，目前已重启两座未受灾害影响的地下矿山，这有望缓解矿端供应的焦虑情 | 或轻仓区间交易 | | | | 绪。铜长期需求前景依然乐观，人工智能、AI算力、绿色能源等行业发展对铜消耗存在高预期，铜价上涨潜力依然较大，但短期需警惕高 | | | | | 铜价对消费的抑制作用以及美联储政策预期变化带来的压力。短期内铜价高位运行的状态不改，沪铜主力运行区间或继续维持在85000- | | | | | 88000一线，建议观望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, demand growth faces certain resistance, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, so the probability of continued consolidation increases. Today, the Shanghai lead price remained volatile with little movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level of 16,980 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 12.5 dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 82,766 lots, down 4,281 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,236 lots, up 573 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, down 325 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 17,310 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.39 dollars/ton, up 0.82 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,160 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%, up 1.83 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.87 tons, up 0.04 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,873.21 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,060.82 points, down 58.5 points. The monthly automobile production was 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle production was 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2] Industry News - There are major developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation, with a secret 28 - point peace - talk framework being discussed. The US authorities cancelled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to December 16. The Fed may further shrink its balance sheet. There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US trade deficit in August narrowed significantly. The Trump administration is considering suspending semiconductor tariffs, and the White House is blocking a bill to restrict AI chip exports. The US Attorney General will release the Epstein case file in 30 days [2] View Summary - On the supply side, the supply of domestic lead concentrate for primary lead remains tight, while the production of recycled lead is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakens in November, but the overall operating level will gradually recover. The high Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff issues suppress the growth of demand. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the Shanghai lead market is likely to continue to consolidate [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has cooled down from its upward trend and entered a period of oscillation. The aluminum market shows significant divergence, with the price expected to be macro - led and oscillate strongly. The zinc market presents opportunities for short - term long positions and cross - market reverse arbitrage. The lead market is expected to oscillate in the short term with potential long - term upside. The nickel and stainless - steel market remains under pressure. The tin market may face a downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside. The polysilicon market is expected to continue oscillating [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market Sentiment**: After reaching a high, copper prices declined and oscillated last week. The market is more concerned about the UK's income pressure, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased [1]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak. Domestic refined copper production decreased in October, and consumption is sluggish. The inventory decreased last week [1]. - **Overseas Situation**: Codelco lowered its production guidance, and some mines have resumed production [1]. - **Market Trend**: The copper market is dominated by funds. It is recommended to wait and see or use options for trading [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity of alumina increased slightly, and the price is in a weak state [1]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity is temporarily stable, with new domestic capacity under construction and overseas capacity expected to resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly [1]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots remained flat, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The spot premium and discount fluctuated slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The market is macro - led and oscillates strongly, but the fundamental resonance is limited, and market divergence has intensified [1]. Zinc - **Market Trend**: The export window of zinc ingots is open, and the external market supports the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory stopped falling, and the domestic smelter's profit is under pressure [1]. - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption is weak, but traders in the East China region are bullish [1]. - **Market Trend**: Short - term long positions can be considered, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. Lead - **Market Situation**: The LME lead inventory decreased, and the external market rebounds, supporting the domestic market [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and the cost has increased [1]. - **Consumption**: The demand for lead - acid batteries is improving [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets are sluggish, with weak trading [1]. - **Macro and Demand**: The overall nickel industry is over - supplied, and the market is in a downturn [1]. - **Spot and Supply**: The premium of nickel decreased, and the inventory of related products changed slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: The nickel market is in a weak state [1]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The tin price oscillated last week, and the short - term decline attracted buying interest [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin supply is tight, and the overall inventory is at a low level [1]. - **Consumption**: Consumption lacks bright spots [1]. - **Market Trend**: It may be in a tight supply situation in the short term, but the long - term price support is weakening [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises are actively producing, and the battery orders are increasing [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased, and the price of Australian ore increased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures and spot prices increased slightly [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is shrinking, and demand is weak overall [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to oscillate strongly with limited upside [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price oscillated and declined, and the spot price was stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decreased slightly [1]. - **Market Trend**: It is expected to continue oscillating [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic and overseas lead prices showed different trends, with the domestic lead price stronger than the overseas one due to the increase in overseas inventories and the weak operation of LME lead [2]. - The Fed officials released dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts again. The gold price remained high, and the market sentiment was still pessimistic [2]. - The lead waste required for both primary and secondary lead remained in short supply. The processing fee of lead concentrate for primary lead continued to decline, and the processing fee of silver - containing lead concentrate was revised down again due to the new high of silver price, indicating that the raw material supply at the smelting end remained tight [2]. - In the short - term, lead is likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited upside space. In the long - term, the possible consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed will be beneficial to the lead price, and the domestic macro situation is also optimistic due to supply - side structural adjustment and lithium battery export restrictions [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Price Trend**: The domestic lead price was stronger than the overseas one this week because of the increase in overseas inventories and the weak operation of LME lead [2]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Fed officials released dovish signals, slightly strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The gold price remained high, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [2]. - **Supply Side**: Lead waste and lead concentrate were in short supply. Primary lead had stable production due to by - product benefits but was not satisfied with the processing fee of imported ore. Secondary lead had low production willingness due to the small amount of scrap batteries [2]. - **Near - term Trading Logic**: The domestic demand in October was partly consumed by September policies and pre - holiday stockpiling. The lead import window opened, and the supply might be alleviated in the long run. Lead inventories might start to accumulate after the National Day, capping the upside of lead prices. In the short - term, lead would fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside [7]. - **Long - term Trading Expectation**: The possible consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed would be beneficial to the lead price, but the overseas macro impact on lead prices was relatively weak. The domestic macro situation was optimistic due to supply - side structural adjustment and lithium battery export restrictions [9]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Option Strategy**: Sell wide - straddle options to collect premiums and stabilize returns [11]. - **Short - term Futures Strategy**: The current Shanghai lead main contract is in a narrow - range oscillation. The pressure level is around 17,300 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 16,600 yuan/ton. Adopt the strategy of high - selling and low - buying within the range. Try to go long lightly at 16,500 - 16,700 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 16,400 yuan/ton; try to go short at 17,100 - 17,200 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The lead basis fluctuates little, so no basis strategy is recommended. The calendar spread is stable, so no calendar spread strategy is recommended. The lead - zinc spread is stable, and an internal - external positive spread can be tried when the export window opens [13][14][15]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, short the Shanghai lead main futures contract at 17,400 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 75% [16]. - **Raw Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, long the Shanghai lead main futures contract at 16,500 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50% [16]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government shutdown has lasted for more than half a month, and the Senate's tenth vote on the temporary appropriation bill on October 16 still failed, with no sign of an end to the shutdown in the short - term [17]. - **Negative Information**: LME lead inventories increased to 250,400 tons [18]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The latest price of SMM 1 lead daily average was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.3%. The price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.3%. The price of imported lead concentrate was 16,520.78 yuan/ton, down 111.89 yuan/ton or 0.67% [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The annual rate of China's Q3 GDP and the annual rate of the US unadjusted CPI in September will be announced [19]. 3. Disk Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - **Domestic Market**: This week, the lead price oscillated within a narrow range at a high level, with strong bottom support, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton. Currently, profitable positions are mainly long in net positions, and foreign capital also focuses on long positions, indicating that the lead market in various institutions is mainly based on a long - term logic [19]. - **Domestic Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic basis structure was stable. The Shanghai lead calendar spread structure deviated slightly due to low trading volume but generally maintained a C - structure [22]. - **Overseas Market**: LME lead was weak this week, closing at $1,972.5/ton as of 15:00 on Friday. In terms of total positions, investment companies and credit institutions accounted for the majority of the positions. The LME lead calendar spread structure was stable, showing a deep C - structure [26][44]. - **Internal - External Spread Tracking**: The internal - external spread narrowed, and the import window opened [46]. 4. Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The processing fee of lead concentrate continued to decline, and the decline trend of the processing fee of silver - containing lead concentrate was obvious [48]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Information on the relationship between the import profit and loss of lead concentrate and import volume is presented, including relevant data and trends [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Information on the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots is provided [59]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The global lead ore market is in a tight situation this year. Although the smelting willingness of primary lead is still high, the shortage of lead raw materials may be a limiting factor [60]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - This week, the operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased slightly due to the return to work after the holiday [71].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall lead supply shows a stable and upward trend, while the overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage without significant explosive growth. The inventory decline provides some support for prices, and the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern next week. It is recommended to place long orders at low prices [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,050 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 83,607 lots, up 874 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,855 lots, up 528 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 30,705 tons, up 1,136 tons; the SHFE inventory was 39,916 tons, down 1,978 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quotation was 1,993.5 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars; the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,875 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,990 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract was - 175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 45.35 dollars/ton, down 120.55 dollars; the price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,471 yuan, up 43 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,840 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61%; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 83.56%, up 1.46%; the weekly output of primary lead was 37,300 tons, up 200 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 5,600 tons, down 5,100 tons; the global lead ore output was 379,900 tons, down 16,000 tons; the lead ore import volume was 1,348,000 tons, up 127,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,989.29 yuan/ton, down 1.78 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 49,680,000 pieces, up 1,925,000 pieces; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other batteries was 2,099.11 points, down 34.55 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.7524 million vehicles, up 242,400 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 1.333 million vehicles, up 157,000 vehicles; the average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries (with 2% antimony) was 19,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. Industry News - Recycling merchants in Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Fujian reported their waste battery purchase prices and inventory situations. The new head of the Philadelphia Fed, Paulson, hinted at supporting two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern next week. Supply from primary and secondary lead is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term, providing price support. Demand, although generally average, will not decline sharply due to the "Golden September and Silver October" season and the growing demand from the emerging energy - storage sector. The decline in inventory also offers some price support. It is recommended to buy on dips for lead prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,095 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars [2]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the open interest of Shanghai lead was 82,733 lots, up 5,004 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 4,383 lots, down 1,402 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 29,569 tons, down 499 tons [2]. - The SHFE inventory was 39,916 tons (weekly), down 1,978 tons; the LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons (daily), down 450 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,925 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 170 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was 75.2 dollars/ton, up 104.84 dollars [2]. - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,471 yuan, up 43 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average开工率 of primary lead was 83.56% (weekly), up 1.46 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.73 tons, up 0.02 tons [2]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 dollars/thousand tons, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 0.5 thousand tons (monthly), up 1.3 thousand tons [2]. - The global lead mine output of ILZSG was 395.9 thousand tons (monthly), up 15.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 13.48 tons (monthly), up 1.27 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume was 1,820.55 tons (monthly), down 1,596.29 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,752.22 tons (monthly), up 957.7 tons [2]. - The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 380 yuan/ton (weekly), unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,991.07 yuan/ton (daily), unchanged [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The export volume of batteries was 49,680 thousand units (monthly), up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,850 yuan/ton (daily), down 50 yuan [2]. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 2,133.66 points (daily), down 99.61 points; the monthly automobile output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.24 million vehicles [2]. - The monthly output of new - energy vehicles was 133.3 million vehicles, up 15.7 million vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The US government plans to lay off more than 4,000 people, and the lay - offs will "mainly target Democrats". The US military may face unpaid leave due to the government shutdown [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed down to five [2]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24 at 8:30 am (8:30 pm Beijing time) [2]. - In the Gaza situation, Hamas will fight back if Israel resumes military action, and a Hamas official said the faction is ready to give up the governance of the Gaza Strip. The Sharm El - Sheikh Peace Summit will be held on the 13th, and neither Hamas nor Israeli representatives will attend [2]. - Trump will visit Cairo and Jerusalem to celebrate the cease - fire and hostage - release agreement [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread for Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 0.5 thousand tons, up 1.3 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 395.9 thousand tons, up 15.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly automobile output is 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2]. f. Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and the US will enter an easing cycle; FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; San Francisco Fed President Daly thinks further rate cuts may be needed; the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025; the US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery; the Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices; the "Fed whisperer" indicates that Powell's remarks suggest further rate cuts may be possible; Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [2]. g. View Summary - The Fed's news has opened up rate - cut space, which has a positive impact on the market sentiment; on the supply side, some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, the raw material market is in tight balance, and the recycled lead production is restricted; on the demand side, the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the demand in emerging fields is good, but the overall demand is still in a slow - recovery stage; the overall inventory has decreased, indicating that demand has effectively reduced inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon. It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each metal, and provides corresponding investment suggestions such as position - taking and trading strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market sentiment**: Affected by the market volatility, interest rate cuts, and the trend of precious metals, copper prices reached a new high since the second half of last year, but there was profit - taking by early long - positions. The market is focusing on real - economy indicators such as September's European and American manufacturing data and August's US PCE [1] - **Domestic situation**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. Inventories have a small outflow but still accumulate this month. Refined copper production decreased month - on - month, and scrap copper enterprises are reluctant to sell. The market is concerned about the supply supplement from imports [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport's Indonesian Grasberg mine has a small amount of production, and the second - stage expansion of Congo's Kakula copper mine is postponed, affecting the production forecast for next year [1] - **Trend**: There is some pre - holiday stocking support, but the pressure on consumption indicators should be continuously monitored. After the early long - positions stop losses, it is advisable to wait and see. The expected range of Shanghai copper is 79,000 - 80,600 yuan [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The operating capacity increased by 400,000 tons to 9.795 million tons last week, reaching a new high. The market is in an oversupply state, and inventories are increasing. The price is weakly running, with support around 2,000 yuan [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic operating capacity is stable at around 4 million tons. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly. Aluminum exports showed a mixed performance. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. The spot discount narrowed, and the processing fee increased [1] - **Trend**: The downstream seasonal improvement is not obvious, and the apparent consumption is lower than expected. The price of Shanghai aluminum has fallen from a high level, with support at 20,500 yuan. It is necessary to pay attention to whether pre - holiday stocking can drive a positive feedback in inventory and spot [1] Zinc - **Market**: After the Fed's short - term interest rate cut, profit - taking led to a decline in zinc prices. The LME inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 - month premium has expanded. The domestic and foreign price trends are divergent, and the import ore ratio is not good [1] - **Supply**: Domestic smelters have maintenance plans in September, and zinc ingot supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Social inventories have decreased, and the price has support at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark [1] - **Consumption**: The peak season is not prosperous, with weak orders in some industries. Although there is some low - level buying before the holiday, the demand growth expectation is insufficient [1] - **Trend**: Both domestic and foreign zinc ingots are destocking, and the decline space of the Shanghai - to - LME ratio is limited. There is a need for short - term profit - taking of cross - market arbitrage and short - selling funds. It is advisable to seize the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound of Shanghai zinc before the holiday [1] Lead - **Market**: The LME lead is under pressure, while the Shanghai lead has a phased improvement in fundamentals and rebounds with increased positions [1] - **Supply**: The overseas supply is tight, and the import loss has narrowed. The raw material supply at the mine end is tight, and some smelters may advance their winter shutdowns. The profit of secondary lead has recovered, but the overall operating rate is still low [1] - **Consumption**: Terminal consumption has recovered, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved before the holidays. The inventories of major lead - zinc smelters and secondary lead smelters have decreased [1] - **Trend**: The fundamentals of lead have improved, but the expected inflow of imported ingots may put pressure on the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 17,300 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, and Shanghai stainless steel rebounded slightly, but the trading activity was low [1] - **Macro and demand**: After the interest rate cut, long - positions tend to cash out. The downstream market is cautious, and high - price transactions are difficult. The cost increase momentum is insufficient, but the pre - holiday demand is emerging, and the cost support is obvious [1] - **Supply**: The premiums of various forms of nickel have different levels, and the inventories of nickel and stainless steel have changed. The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel goods decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel decreased [1] - **Trend**: The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel are exhausted, and the price is weakly running and is about to start a downward trend [1] Tin - **Market**: The prices of domestic and foreign tin encountered resistance and declined, and then found support at the MA400 moving average or lower levels. The LME squeeze is basically over [1] - **Supply**: There is a lack of new information. Domestic leading enterprises are under maintenance, and the supply of domestic and imported tin ore is tight. Indonesia's tin production target remains unchanged [1] - **Consumption**: After the price adjustment, there is some rigid - demand buying. The inventories in some statistics have decreased, but the domestic terminal production and exports are average [1] - **Trend**: After the reduction of the position - taking risk, the market focus turns to the domestic market. Tin prices are difficult to show a trend, and it is advisable to continue the "high - selling and low - buying" trading strategy [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with low - volume trading. The market speculation degree has decreased, and the difference between long and short positions has narrowed [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,600 tons [1] - **Demand**: Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" in the traditional automobile sales season, the orders of material factories have increased significantly this month, and the overall industry demand is strong [1] - **Trend**: The low - level support is emerging, but after the industry's selling action is basically completed, combined with the anti - involution trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon diverged last week. The price of industrial silicon broke through the 900 - yuan/ton mark, mainly due to the cost support from coal production cuts in Xinjiang [1] - **Supply**: The production in September - October is expected to continue to increase, and the production reduction may be clear around the National Day. The production in the southwest is relatively stable [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon in September changed little, and the reduction expectation of leading enterprises in October has increased. The operating rate of organic silicon monomer factories is stable [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 4,000 tons to 543,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The price of industrial silicon is affected by the rising coal cost and the expected elimination of backward furnace types. The supply - demand contradiction suppresses the price, and the upward space is limited [1] Polysilicon - **Market**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated in a range and showed a slight decline. The market sentiment cooled down. The energy - consumption limit standard is in the solicitation stage [1] - **Supply**: After the industry self - discipline meeting, the production of leading enterprises in October may decline, and the downstream silicon wafers are expected to reduce production synchronously [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon enterprises is unevenly distributed, and the total factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 204,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The capacity elimination of polysilicon is gradually advancing, and the spot price has a slight upward shift. The futures may face callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 50,000 yuan/ton [1] Investment Recommendation - Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100, due to the Fed's dovish stance and the appropriate gold - silver ratio [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in recycled lead and the marginal improvement in demand will support lead prices. The price is expected to be in the range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3][6]. - For unilateral trading, it is recommended that existing long positions be held, while new long positions should be taken with caution as the upside potential of prices is limited by the increase in recycled lead supply. For spread trading, the short - term improvement in consumption may lead to inventory reduction, so the Shanghai lead term positive spread can be held temporarily [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 17,150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.65%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a night - session decrease of 0.15%. The price of LmeS - lead3 was 1,989.5, with a decrease of 1.46% [7]. - **Spread**: The LME lead spread decreased by 2.56 to - 43.72, the Shanghai 1 lead spot spread increased by 15 to - 15, and the recycled lead - primary lead spread decreased by 50 to - 75 [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lead inventory increased slightly from 67,000 tons on September 11th to 67,600 tons on September 18th. The Shanghai lead 10 - contract long - to - inventory ratio is high, and the spot discount continues to narrow [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last Friday was 35,975 lots, a decrease of 27,454 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 32,743 lots, a decrease of 19,445 lots from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Recycled Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The processing fee of lead concentrate has weakened. The spot import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate dropped to - 100 US dollars/ton this week, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting enterprises is under pressure [6]. - **Primary Lead and Recycled Lead**: The production of primary lead is under pressure, with smelters in Henan under continuous maintenance and a smelter in Qinghai about to start maintenance. The profit of recycled lead enterprises has improved from loss to profit, and some enterprises in Anhui, Hubei and other regions have resumed production [6]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally. Dealers are actively picking up goods, the inventory of finished products in some battery factories has improved, and large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises have increased raw material procurement [6]. - **End - Users**: The report does not provide detailed information on end - users, but the improvement in lead - acid battery consumption may be related to the demand from industries such as automobiles and motorcycles [46].