【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔夜伦铅小涨，开盘报1957美元/吨，高点报1996美元，低点报1957美元，尾盘 收于1995.5美元，涨36美元，涨幅1.84%；成交量8762手，持仓量173292手。 需求端复苏呈现节奏性特征：节后铅蓄电池企业复工早于再生铅供应恢复，形成阶段性供需缺口；下游 刚需采购、备库预期与海外补库需求同步释放，加速前期库存消化，进一步推升价格。 今日铅价走势预测 结合宏观环境、板块联动与自身供需格局，预计当日铅价将延续小幅上涨，但涨幅可能收窄，整体呈 现"高开高走、震荡收尾"的态势。沪铅主力合约价格区间预计在16720-16880元/吨，现货价格有望同步 跟涨。值得关注的核心风险点包括：美元指数若出现反弹，可能抑制以美元计价的金属价格；再生铅企 业复产进度若快于预期，将缓解供应紧张格局；下游蓄电池的实际采购需求若不及预期，则可能削弱价 格上行动能。午后需密切跟踪伦铅走势的联动影响及现货市场的成交数据。 （注：本文为原创分析，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。数据支持：长江有色金属网 www.ccmn.cn电话： 0592-5668838） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江铅业网( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In January 2026, the lead price oscillated weakly. The increasing losses of secondary lead forced large - scale production cuts. Terminal demand was differentiated but overall weak. The continuous accumulation of domestic visible inventory suppressed the price center. In February, the Spring Festival holiday will intensify the pattern of double decline in supply and demand. The concentrated shutdown of upstream and downstream will put the market into a closed - market state. The contraction of the supply side is expected to relieve the inventory pressure, but the lag in terminal resumption of work may keep the price oscillating weakly near the cost line [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 2, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - $45.87/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 50.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,650 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 2, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,915 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 101,052 lots, a decrease of 21,807 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 57,029 lots, an increase of 549 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price oscillated, with the highest point reaching 16,990 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,690 yuan/ton and closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. After the decline of the lead price, downstream enterprises were in a wait - and - see state. Most downstream enterprises already had a certain inventory, and some were even waiting for the holiday. The overall market trading situation was sluggish [2] Inventory - On February 2, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of February 2, the LME lead inventory was 204,075 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：风险偏好调整，铜价高位下修 上周五晚沪铜主力跌4.75%至103190元，伦铜下跌至13050美元附近。 宏观中性偏空。特朗普提名沃什担任美联储主席，降息预期减弱，加之贵金属回调幅度扩大，带动有色板块普遍下跌。 基本面中性偏多。上周全球铜库存升至103.1万吨，其中境内铜小幅去库0.16万吨至33.2万吨，LME铜累库约0.45万吨至17.5万吨，COMEX铜延续大幅累库 1.37万吨至52.4万吨。 总体来看，市场风险偏好调整短时间内对铜价带来压力，但金属自身供应约束偏强，价格下跌空间或有限。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考10万-10.45万元/吨。 策略上，节前区间为主，卖深虚看涨期权继续持有；中长线等待低点布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢： ...

南华期货铅产业周报 ——累库预期压制价格 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周铅价在有色板块集体狂飙后陷入"补跌与防御"并存的境地，宏观层面的避险交易虽将黄金推向历 史高点，但铅市因缺乏新能源或AI题材的长期叙事，其宏观溢价正被供需现实迅速稀释。地缘政治不稳定性 及美国政府关停预期虽一度推高通胀预期，但美联储偏鹰派的表态导致美元反弹，诱发了以铅为代表的低弹 性品种率先回调。与此同时，国内基本面呈现典型的"双弱"格局，随着春节假期临近，铅精矿成交清淡， 尽管副产白银利润可观支撑了冶炼厂的生产积极性，使得加工费（TC）维持在低位运行，但供应端的边际缩 减远不及下游需求端的"断崖式"滑坡。由此验证了，当前铅市正处于由宏观偏好驱动转向基本面季节性过 剩的切换期，库存端显现出的累库苗头正成为价格下行的核心牵引。 铅定价逻辑 source： SMM,南华研究 元/吨 元/金属吨 国产铅精矿价格 再生精铅-平均价 SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 铅精矿加工费（国产）(右轴) 21/12 22/12 23 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The downstream market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although supply in some areas has decreased due to extreme weather, the demand for electric vehicle batteries has dropped significantly as the Spring Festival approaches, while the demand for automotive batteries is still acceptable. Some enterprises may start pre - festival inventory replenishment. The lead price is expected to rise slightly this week, with an overall operating range of 16,900 - 17,700 yuan/ton [1][4] Summary by Relevant Content Spot Market - On January 27, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was - 48.53 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,875 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,300 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai lead futures main contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 62,123 lots, an increase of 13,107 lots from the previous trading day. The持仓 volume was 60,800 lots, a decrease of 2,985 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,165 yuan/ton and a low of 16,945 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. After the lead price weakened, the downstream's attitude towards purchasing was divided, some continued to wait and see due to fear of price drops, the smelter's inventory increased slightly, and the market trading was rather light [2] Inventory - On January 27, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 211,175 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The overall investment strategy for lead is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4]

现货交投与走势预测：偏强震荡，刚需主导 今日现货市场交投氛围随期货走强回暖，呈现"报价坚挺、刚需成交"特征。持货商受供应偏紧预期影响 惜售情绪浓厚，现货报价维持高位，现货对期货贴水幅度收窄。下游企业以节前备货刚需采购为主，对 高价货源谨慎观望，整体交投活跃度温和回升但未出现爆发式增长。 短期铅价走势预测 今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报17140元，高点报17155元，低点 17005元，结算价17070元/吨，收盘17010元/吨，跌35元，跌幅0.21%。伦铅最新价报2028美元，跌7美 元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报17010-17110元/吨，均价17060元，涨50元；广东现货 市场1#铅报16960-17060元/吨，均价17010元，涨25元。今日现货铅市场报价在16925-17110元/吨之间， 对比沪期铅2602合约贴水145-升水40元/吨，沪期铅2603合约贴水190-贴水5元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小涨，其背后是宏观环境与产业基本面共振形成的清晰支撑。宏观 层面，中国央行通过MLF操作释放流动性宽松信号，与美元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The overall direction of monetary easing and ongoing contradictions in the mining end continue to support non - ferrous metals. However, due to factors such as capital outflows during Christmas, the sector experiences a round of strong consolidation. There are differences in fundamentals among non - ferrous metals, leading to a differentiation in strength. It is recommended to focus on opportunities where macro and micro factors resonate [12]. - Copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving central value in the future, driven by its financial attributes, valuation repair, and the global inventory structural contradiction. It is advisable to gradually go long on Shanghai Copper on dips [3]. - Zinc is in an oscillatory state. As long as the lower support level holds, one can go long on dips [4]. - For the aluminum industry chain, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see or long - biased approach. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is suggested [5]. - Tin is recommended to be on the sidelines, and attention should be paid to the trends of other non - ferrous metals and policy regulations [6]. - Lead shows a short - term upward trend, and one can go long on dips [8]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a short - term bullish state, but attention should be paid to macro - liquidity changes and the implementation of Indonesian policies [9]. Summary by Section Part 1: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. Monetary easing continues, and contradictions in the mining end support the sector. Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market weakens the US dollar, which is beneficial for non - ferrous metals. However, the appreciation of the RMB may lead to relatively stronger performance in the external market. During Christmas, capital outflows increase volatility, and non - ferrous metals experience a round of strong consolidation. The US economic data shows mixed performance, and China's economic data such as power consumption is positive. The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted but moved away from lows, with internal differentiation in strength. Copper, with its tight supply - demand situation, drives the sector upward. As weak - performing varieties make up for losses, the sector may experience profit - taking and increased volatility. Attention should be paid to spot - market feedback [12]. - **This Week's Focus**: This week, the US will release a large amount of economic data, with the focus on the third - quarter real GDP on December 23. China will release the November industrial enterprise profit data on December 27. The Christmas holiday leads to market closures in the UK and the US [13]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Strategy** - **Copper**: Driven by factors such as the high - than - expected US GDP and inflation, and the global inventory structural contradiction, copper prices are expected to rise. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 92,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying near - month slightly out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Zinc**: With a relatively warm macro environment and a slowdown in the decline of processing fees, zinc is in an oscillatory recovery state. It can be bought on dips as long as the support level holds, with an upper pressure range of 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips, with an upper pressure range of 23,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 21,000 - 21,300 yuan/ton. For alumina, a high - selling strategy is recommended, with an upper pressure range of 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2,000 - 2,200 yuan/ton. For recycled aluminum alloy, a wait - and - see or long - biased approach is suggested, with an upper pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 20,000 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: Affected by sector adjustment, policy利空, and nickel market resonance, it is recommended to wait and see, with an upper pressure range of 350,000 - 355,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 310,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton. Options strategies can consider buying out - of - the - money put options for protection [6][7]. - **Lead**: With a weak US dollar and cost support, lead prices are rising. It is advisable to go long in the short term, with a lower support range of 16,700 - 16,800 yuan/ton and an upper pressure range of 17,200 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the expected reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and potential policy changes, nickel and stainless steel are short - term bullish. For nickel, the upper pressure range is 128,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 123,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the upper pressure range is 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton [9]. Part 2: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [17]. Part 3: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report presents the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lead, copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum alloy, aluminum, industrial silicon, gold, zinc, alumina, tin, and nickel [19]. Part 4: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [20][22]. Part 5: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report provides relevant charts for each non - ferrous metal in the industry chain, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [25][28][30] Part 6: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals arbitrage, including the Shanghai - London ratio changes, basis spreads, and other aspects of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [56][57][59] Part 7: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report provides relevant charts for non - ferrous metals options, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and other aspects of copper, zinc, and aluminum [74][76][79]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a stage of divergence between "current shortage and expected surplus." The low inventory and cost - loss bottom of secondary lead limit the downside, but without new consumption drivers and with a confirmed long - term surplus, the price will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [3] - In the short - term, the sharp increase in LME inventory eases the overseas squeeze risk and puts pressure on LME lead. In the domestic market, the low inventory leads to a "reluctance to sell" sentiment, but the upside pressure level is difficult to break through [7] - In the long - term, the core contradiction lies in the mismatch between the profit - repair cycle of the secondary lead industry and the downstream demand recession cycle. If the downstream lithium - battery substitution is faster than the supply clearance, the lead price center will move down in the long run [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Strong current situation: Domestic lead ingot social inventory and smelter inventory have both reached 15 - month lows, offsetting the year - end weak consumption. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with primary lead production increasing after maintenance and secondary lead production decreasing due to raw material shortages and environmental protection [3] - Weak expectations: The market expects a supply surplus in 2026, with overseas supply growth exceeding demand growth [3] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: Range operation (buy low and sell high). Buy long positions in the range of 16,750 - 16,800 with a stop - loss at 16,600, and take profit and reverse to short positions around 17,100 [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage (long SHFE and short LME) [9] - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options. Sell put options with an exercise price of 16500 and call options with an exercise price of 17300 [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17400 to hedge against price drops [10] - For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, buy 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16500 to hedge against price increases [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely positive drivers**: Supply disruptions intensify as the Australian Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter's union votes for industrial action, and the weakening US dollar provides a valuation - repair window for non - ferrous metals [11] - **Likely negative drivers**: A sharp increase in LME inventory and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations [12] - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16725 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the average price of recycled lead is 16775 yuan/ton, up 0.45% [13] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The release of China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) on December 22; monitor whether the lead ingot social inventory will show an inflection point of accumulation due to year - end account closing [13] - **International**: The Christmas holiday in Europe and America on December 25 may cause abnormal market fluctuations; follow the progress of the strike at the Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16880 yuan/ton this week. Profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the monthly - spread structure of Shanghai lead maintains a C - structure [15][17] - **International market**: As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead was at 1973 US dollars/ton. The LME lead maintains a C - structure [20][38] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between lead - concentrate monthly production and processing fees [43] 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Examine the import - profit and loss and import volume of lead concentrates, as well as the seasonal patterns of refined - lead and lead - battery imports and exports [45] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of domestic lead ingot total supply and actual consumption [50] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Examine the monthly production of lead concentrates, electrolytic lead, and secondary refined lead, as well as the seasonal patterns of global lead - mine and refined - lead production [52][54][59] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of lead - battery开工率, exports, and imports, and the inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers [61][64]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a game stage between warm macro - expectations, regional supply tightening, and concerns about inventory accumulation. In the short term, lead prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - The core trading point in the short - term is the divergence between extremely low social inventory and "accumulating factory inventory". Be vigilant against the risk of a decline after a surge [6]. - In the long run, the seasonal decline in the scrap battery scrap volume and the reluctance of recyclers to sell provide rigid cost support for recycled lead, restricting the release of recycled lead production and limiting the downside space of lead prices [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - level**: As the US December interest rate decision approaches, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is rising. The weak US data has put pressure on the US dollar index, providing valuation support for the non - ferrous sector [2]. - **Supply - side**: In primary lead, smelters in Yunnan, Anhui, and Jiangxi are under centralized maintenance, tightening the regional spot circulation. In recycled lead, due to environmental permit renewal in Anhui and raw material shortages in Inner Mongolia, the operating rate has dropped to 48.4%, and the supply of scattered orders is extremely scarce [2]. - **Demand - side**: In winter, the automotive starting battery is in the traditional peak season. With the year - end sales push, the operating rate of large battery factories has risen to 74.46%, providing rigid demand support for lead prices [2]. - **Inventory - side**: Social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low of 23,600 tons, giving strong motivation for long - position holders to force short - position holders [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures unilateral**: Go long on dips. The lead price has strong support at the 17,000 yuan/ton level. Buy contracts based on the moving - average support level, with a target price of around 17,500 yuan/ton. Pay close attention to the capital flow before the delivery of the 2512 contract [9]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Carry out calendar spread arbitrage (buy near - term contracts and sell far - term contracts). The current low inventory situation benefits near - term contracts, and the spot premium is firm. The Back structure is expected to be maintained [9]. - **Option strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the strong cost support and low inventory, the possibility of a sharp decline in lead prices is very small. Sell put options with a strike price below 16,800 yuan/ton to collect premiums [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, short 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17,400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw material management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory worried about price increases, long 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16,500 yuan/ton [10]. 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, weakening the US dollar index and boosting LME lead above $2,000/ton; the market is bullish on upcoming US and Chinese economic data; the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces has dropped to 65.92% due to smelter maintenance, tightening the market supply [11]. - **Negative drivers**: The operating rate of recycled lead has dropped to 48.4%, and the finished - product inventory has reached a new low since 2021; the SMM five - region lead ingot social inventory has dropped to a 15 - month low; the automotive battery sector is in the peak season, driving up the comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid batteries [12]. - **Neutral drivers**: High lead prices have suppressed downstream consumption; the factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands has increased, with a risk of inventory transfer for delivery; the profit of recycled lead enterprises has been repaired, which may stimulate the resumption of idle capacity [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: China's November CPI annual rate on December 9; the approaching delivery date of the SHFE lead 2512 contract on December 12 [14]. - **International**: US October JOLTs job openings on December 10; the Fed FOMC interest rate decision on December 11 [14]. 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price has been fluctuating strongly this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the SHFE lead monthly spread structure is slightly deviated but generally maintains a C structure [15][17]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, the LME lead price was $2,016/ton, and the LME lead maintains a C structure [20][33]. 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between the monthly output of lead concentrates and processing fees [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyze the import profit and loss of lead concentrates and their relationship with import volume, as well as the seasonal import and export volume of refined lead, lead concentrates, and lead - acid batteries [41][42][44]. 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Analyze the seasonal supply and actual consumption of domestic lead ingots [48]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyze the monthly output of lead concentrates, global lead ore production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their seasonal patterns and capacity utilization rates [50][51][56][58]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyze the seasonal operating rate of lead - acid batteries, including monthly and weekly rates, by type and region. Also, analyze the seasonal export and import volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries and the seasonal inventory days of finished products for enterprises and dealers [65][66][67][68][69].

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 期货研究院 有色金属日度策略 Metal Futures Daily Strategy 摘要 铜： 近期美联储集体转鸽，美国9月零售数据不及预期，市场对美联储1 2月降息预期再度升温。美国政府结束停摆，后续美元流动性有望 改善。美国总统特朗普11月24日签署行政令，正式启动代号为"创 世使命"的国家级人工智能计划，打开了市场对未来美国铜需求增 长的想象空间。基本面方面，铜管需求和产量旺季不旺，前期铜价 上涨一定程度抑制下游采购需求，但当前下游对高铜价的接受度开 ...