新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 现货成交有限 宏观因素提振铅价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 1、国内供应大幅提升 2、消费不及预期 3、海外流动性收紧 据SMM讯，昨日SMM1#铅价较上一交易日上涨100元/吨。河南地区持货商报价对SMM1#铅均价贴水20-0元/吨出 厂，或对沪期铅2509合约贴水120-100元/吨；湖南地区冶炼厂报价对SMM1#铅贴水20-0元/吨出厂，部分持货商报 价对SMM1#铅均价贴水50-30元/吨；广东地区炼厂报价升水下调，对SMM1#铅升水30元/吨，铅价走强后，下游仅 以刚需采购，下游接货积极性较差，现货市场成交一般。 库存方面：2025-08-25，SMM铅锭库存总量为6.8万吨，较上周同期变化-0.16万吨。截止8月25日，LME铅库存为 273050吨，较上一交易日变化-6550吨。 策略 中性 目前铅品种供需两淡格局难改，旺季需求目前并无明显体现，而精矿端即便在冶炼厂存在检修计划预期的情况下， 仍然显得较为紧俏，TC价格也持续走低，因此基本面目前并无明显利好铅价的因素，但宏观因素（如降息预期抬 升）则是利好整体有色板块，也使得铅价下跌空间有限，预计价 ...

有色金属基础周报 主要品种观点综述 美联储降息预期增强 有色金属整体震荡偏强 2025-08-25 | | | 本周铜价维持横盘状态，价格波动进一步收敛。周末在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上鲍威尔放鸽，认为风险平衡转变，可能需要调整政策，强调就 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 业风险，为降息敞开大门，消息对铜价将有所提振；国内反内卷政策延续深化，相关品种继续得到支撑，给市场带来情绪化影响。基本面上，本 | | | | | 周国内铜库存小增但整体维持低位水平，LME铜库存累库，沪伦比止跌回稳，铜进口利润转正，进口陆续到货，叠加国产货源有所补充，市场流 | | | | 高位震荡偏强 | 动性得以增加。下游消费未见拐点，现货升水有所下滑，但铜价走跌推动下游企业入市逢低补库需求回升，部分市场到货量亦再度减少，社会库 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 78500-79500 | 存重新下降。铜市场月底下游消费提升空间有限，同时进口铜到货仍有增量，供需市场矛盾点并不突出，现货升水回升仍面临压力。铜价仍偏于 | 或观望 | | | | 震荡。但从表观消费量来看绝对需求量并不低，体现出目前消费的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand is gradually rising, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,775 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,981 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [2] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,535 lots, down 5,792 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,093 lots, up 672 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 62,225 tons, up 441 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory is 261,100 tons, down 575 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,675 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 43.24 US dollars/ton, down 2.37 US dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,104 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged [2] - The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.25%, down 2.4%; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [2] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 70 US dollars/kiloton, down 10 US dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,112.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,988.81 points, up 63.07 points; the monthly automobile output is 2,808,600, up 166,600 [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,647,000, up 73,000 [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump and Putin's meeting was considered constructive, and there is a high possibility of reaching an agreement on important aspects; the next meeting may be in Moscow [2] - Trump said progress has been made on the Russian issue and suggested Zelensky reach an agreement; the US envoy said Putin agreed to Ukraine's "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee [2] - Zelensky will meet with Trump in Washington; European leaders will participate in the "Trump - Zelensky meeting"; sanctions against Russia will continue to be strengthened [2] - Trump will determine steel and chip tariffs in the next two weeks, and semiconductor tariffs may reach 300%; the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports will be expanded [2] 3.7 View Summary - The production of primary lead fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply side is tight [2] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in lead - acid batteries. Approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [2] - The inventory has declined slightly recently, and there is a possibility of demand improvement. The overall demand is expected to gradually strengthen, which will support the lead price [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-13 下游维持刚需采购 但宏观因素使得铅价震荡走高 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-08-12，LME铅现货升水为-35.50美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16775 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-35.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元 /吨至16825元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/吨至16800元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至16800元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至10200元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化50元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10475元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-12，沪铅主力合约开于16855元/吨，收于16915元/吨，较前一交易日变化30元/吨，全天交易日 成交29986手，较前一交易日变化-5637手，全天交易日持仓51223手，手较前一交易日变化-3172手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16980元/吨，最低点达到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal demand for lead during the peak season is not evident, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition phase between the off - season and peak season. Although the terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the foundation for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually attempt to buy on dips for hedging, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.86/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead scrap - refined spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,133 lots, a decrease of 6,065 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 72,083 lots, an increase of 753 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,755 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 5, the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SMM1 lead price dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or 100 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering a 120 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at par with the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Jiangxi, suppliers offered a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Due to the weakening of lead prices, downstream buyers were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and the trading volume in some regions improved compared to the previous day [2]

General Information - Report Date: 2025-07-08 [23][38] - Analysts: Wang Yuwu, Feng Fan, Shi Cheng, Chen Sijie [38][39] Investment Rating - Absolute Price: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Option Strategy: Sell Put [4] Core View - The lead price is temporarily in a volatile pattern due to limited downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic mine supply is relatively tight, and the smelters' willingness to purchase high-silver mines is low. The energy storage battery sector performs prominently, and the industry is optimistic about the second half of the year. Other battery sectors also see a gradual increase in the operating rate [1][3]. Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On July 7, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -55 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate waste price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton. The waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton. The waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,315 yuan/ton, closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 29,406 lots, an increase of 5,076 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 51,045 lots, a decrease of 627 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,315 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,155 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,180 yuan/ton, closed at 17,110 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the afternoon closing price [1]. Inventory - On July 7, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 259,975 tons, a decrease of 2,625 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [3]. Option Strategy - Sell put options [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loss of secondary lead smelters is being repaired. Some smelters have the intention to resume production. The price is expected to be boosted by the consumption peak - season, but the actual restocking in the real - world is relatively for essential needs. In the medium - term, the price of lead is expected to be strong as the supply - demand contradiction may be significant in the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 17,295 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.99%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,225 yuan, with a decrease of 0.40%. LmeS - Lead3 had a closing price of 1,988.5 dollars last week, with a decrease of 2.60%. The LME lead spot premium (0 - 3) was - 24.63 dollars last Friday, a decrease of 2.49 dollars compared to the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread was - 55 yuan last Friday, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 46,439 tons, an increase of 554 tons compared to the previous week. The total Shanghai Lead inventory was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons. The social inventory was 56,900 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 10,150 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.59%, a decrease of 0.26% [7]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 24,330 lots, a decrease of 16,320 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,672 lots, a decrease of 128 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead3 was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 1,901 lots, and the position was 151,720 lots, an increase of 614 lots [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the report. The import volume of lead concentrate shows different trends over the years. The domestic lead concentrate production also has its own characteristics. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang and the processing fees (domestic and imported) are also included [24][25]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: In the primary lead sector, smelters in Yunnan and other places are under maintenance. In the secondary lead sector, the supply of scrap batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption. The price of scrap batteries has risen, and the secondary lead price has been more significantly boosted, with the loss being repaired. Some smelters are willing to resume production. The production and operating rates of primary lead, secondary lead, and their combined production are also analyzed [6][26]. - **Scrap Batteries**: The price of scrap batteries has increased. The supply is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and recyclers are reluctant to sell their stocks [6]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: There is an expectation of a consumption peak - season for lead - acid batteries. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries shows different trends over the years. The inventory days of finished products for lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers are also presented [5][6][32]. - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles is used as an indicator to reflect the end - user demand for lead. The actual consumption of lead also shows different trends over the years [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, with geopolitical risks, trade policies, and economic data all playing significant roles. Different commodities show various trends due to their unique supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic environments [2][3]. - For most commodities, short - term price movements are characterized by oscillations, affected by both positive and negative factors. Some commodities may experience short - term price increases or decreases based on specific events and data [4][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Overseas: The US Senate passed the "Big Beautiful Act" with a narrow margin, and it awaits final approval in the House. Trump may reach a trade agreement with India but is skeptical about Japan, hinting at a potential increase in tariffs on Japanese imports to 30% - 35% from 24%. The US job openings in May reached a new high since November last year, and Powell suggested a "wait - and - see" approach [2]. - Domestic: President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, emphasizing the promotion of a unified market and the development of the marine economy. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June rebounded to 50.4, returning to the expansion range. Stocks and bonds both rose, but the A - share market lacked a clear main line [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.28% to $3349.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.20% to $36.25 per ounce. Trade concerns, potential Fed rate cuts, and Middle - East geopolitical risks drove safe - haven funds into the precious metals market. However, the short - term sustainability of the price rebound is uncertain [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper showed an upward trend. The Shanghai copper main contract broke through, and the London copper price approached the $10,000 mark. The US manufacturing was in a downturn with inflation expectations rising. Globally, the shortage of concentrates and low inventory levels, along with expanding application areas, are expected to drive copper prices into a short - term oscillatory upward trend [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum showed a positive trend. The weakening US dollar index and low warehouse receipts supported the price. However, the market should also pay attention to the impact of the Senate's passage of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill and the upcoming July 9 trade tariff suspension deadline [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina futures showed a preference for oscillatory movement. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decline, and the spot market had limited supply increments. The short - term price is expected to maintain a preference for oscillatory movement [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc declined slightly. Overseas refineries resumed production, and the supply disturbance weakened. Although downstream buying improved, the short - term fundamentals remained weak, and the price returned to a weakening trend [12][13]. Lead - The price of lead declined slightly. The supply of primary and recycled lead refineries is expected to recover in July, while consumption has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly [14][15]. Tin - The price of tin showed a compensatory movement. The fundamentals were not significantly changed, with low trading volume. The supply and demand were both weak, and the high - price tin faced pressure [16]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon faced resistance in its rebound. It was in the off - season with weakening demand. The supply side was generally weak, and the demand side in the photovoltaic industry was also lackluster. The short - term price is expected to enter a weak adjustment phase [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate declined. The market sentiment cooled down, and the downstream replenishment ended. Although the cathode production in July may exceed expectations, the supply also increased, and high inventory may drag down the price [19][20]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The US economic data was mixed, and the cost side showed signs of loosening. The short - term fundamentals had no improvement, and the price oscillated [21][22]. Crude Oil - The price of crude oil oscillated. Geopolitical risks and industry logic were intertwined. Although the geopolitical heat decreased, the conflict was not completely over, and the supply side maintained a high - growth expectation [23]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures price rebounded slightly. The market was affected by the news of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply side's production was stable at a low level, and the demand side was weak due to high - temperature weather. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price oscillated and adjusted. The port inventory decreased slightly, but the supply pressure remained due to high overseas shipments. The demand for iron ore had some resilience, but the production of molten iron was expected to decline. The short - term price is expected to oscillate under pressure [26]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. The US soybean crushing volume in May was 6.11 million tons, and the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas in the next two weeks was normal. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather changes, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - US trade progress [27][28]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price may oscillate. The production of Malaysian palm oil in June slowed down, and the export demand in Indonesia increased in May. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of lead is neutral, with short - term lateral movement under weak supply and demand and a bullish outlook in the medium term [3] Core Viewpoints - The loss of secondary lead is severe, and the operating rate is low. The price of waste batteries is suppressed by negative demand feedback, and the profit and loss of secondary lead is at a historical low. The supply of primary lead remains stable at a relatively high level in the same period of history. In the short term, the willingness to resume production of secondary lead is low, and consumption is in the off - season, with limited demand for lead ingots. In the short term, the supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price is adjusted within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long term, the long - position profit - loss ratio is favorable, and the subsequent strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support [5] Summary by Directory 1. Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Price Change**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.80%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,875 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.39%. The closing price of LmeS - lead3 last week was 1,981 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.58% [6] - **Transaction and Position Change**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 26,878 lots, a decrease of 5,836 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 34,107 lots, a decrease of 9,497 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead3 last Friday was 3,836 lots, a decrease of 1,273 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 154,029 lots, an increase of 7,000 lots [6] - **Spread Change**: The LME lead spot premium last Friday was - 28.49 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.56 dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between near - month and continuous - first contract was - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of near - month to continuous - first inter - period arbitrage was 77.82 yuan/ton [6] - **Inventory Change**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 43,860 tons, a decrease of 369 tons compared with the previous week. The SHFE total inventory was 51,291 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons. The social inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons. The LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.25%, a decrease of 4.36% [6] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, operating rate, processing fees, and profits of lead concentrate are presented in the data. The import volume of lead concentrate shows different trends in different years, and the domestic production also fluctuates. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang and the operating rate also change over time [25][26] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead shows an upward trend in some years, and the weekly operating rate also fluctuates. The production of primary lead by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is also presented [27][28] - **Secondary Lead**: The production of secondary lead shows different trends in different years, and the operating rate is relatively low at present. The price of waste batteries, the cost, profit and loss, and raw material inventory of secondary lead are also analyzed. The loss of secondary lead is severe, which restricts the operating rate [27][29] - **Import and Export**: The export volume, import profit and loss, net import volume, and monthly import volume of lead ingots are presented. The import and export situation of lead shows different trends in different years [30] 3. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries are presented. The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows different trends in different years, the operating rate fluctuates, and the finished - product inventory days of enterprises and dealers are relatively high [33] - **Terminal Consumption**: The production volume of automobiles and motorcycles and the actual consumption volume of lead are presented. The production volume of automobiles and motorcycles shows different trends in different years, and the actual consumption volume of lead also fluctuates [35]