南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年08月27日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强压力位：90000 | 42.2% | 73.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2511 | 卖出 | 60% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 40% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current hype about mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: a "step - by - step rise chain" when macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances occur, and a "negative feedback cycle" during the price - down cycle. The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: prices will rise in Q3 and fall in Q4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 90,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Contract Performance**: For the lithium carbonate main contract, the closing price dropped from 87,540 to 80,980 yuan/ton (-7.49% day - on - day, -4.84% week - on - week), the trading volume increased from 734,929 to 838,879 hands (14.14% day - on - day, -32.64% week - on - week), and the open interest decreased from 414,097 to 395,102 hands (-4.59% day - on - day, 0.62% week - on - week). Similar trends were seen in the LC2601 contract [9]. - **Month - spread Changes**: The LC11 - 12 month - spread decreased from 120 to 100 (-17% day - on - day, -69% week - on - week), and the LC11 - 01 month - spread decreased from 540 to 340 (-37% day - on - day, -45% week - on - week) [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and amblygonite, showed different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2 - 2.5%) was 2,125 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (-2.75% day - on - day, 4.68% week - on - week) [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide had weekly increases. For instance, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan (5.84% week - on - week) [18]. - **Downstream Products**: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes were mostly stable with no daily changes [23][24]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The brand - based basis quotes of lithium carbonate from different companies, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., were mostly stable. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for LC2507 was - 250 yuan [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 23,615 to 24,045, with changes in different warehouses and sub - warehouses [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Delivery Profits**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented through trend charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32].