Core Insights - The rare metals theme index rose by 2.12% as of August 15, 2025, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Zhongke Sanhuan (up 8.73%) and Platinum New Materials (up 8.02%) [1][3] - The rare metals ETF (562800) also saw a half-day increase of 2.12%, indicating strong market interest [1] Trading Activity - The rare metals ETF had a turnover rate of 4.49% with a half-day trading volume of 64.58 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the ETF averaged daily trading of 127 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's scale increased by 143 million yuan in the past week, also the highest among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares grew by 19.5 million in the past week, marking significant growth and leading in new share issuance among comparable funds [3] - In the last five trading days, the ETF attracted a total of 125 million yuan in inflows [3] Performance Metrics - As of August 14, 2025, the rare metals ETF's net value increased by 65.05% over the past year, ranking 354 out of 2961 index stock funds, placing it in the top 11.96% [3] - The ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 24.02% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being three months and a maximum cumulative increase of 29.68% [3] - The average return during rising months was 8.13% [3] - The ETF outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 8.17% over the past three months [3] Key Holdings - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the rare metals theme index included Northern Rare Earth, Salt Lake Co., Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, collectively accounting for 55.85% of the index [3] Market Developments - The shutdown of the world's largest single lithium mica mine operated by CATL due to expired mining licenses is expected to increase lithium prices and reduce supply, impacting manufacturers of cathode materials, battery manufacturers, and end vehicle manufacturers [4] - Despite a currently relaxed lithium carbonate market, the uncertainty in resource availability reinforces the "lithium scarcity" narrative, favoring leading companies with compliant mining licenses [4] - Tungsten product prices are reaching new highs due to decreased supply from domestic quotas and environmental inspections, while international supply increases are below expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The expiration of mining rights for CATL's Jiangxi Yichun lithium mica mine has led to a complete production halt, impacting lithium supply and prices in the short term [1] Group 1: Event Impact - CATL's Jiangxi Yichun lithium mica mine, the largest single lithium mica mine globally, has a lithium carbonate resource equivalent of approximately 6.57 million tons and an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons LCE [1] - The production halt starting August 10 is expected to reduce monthly supply by about 8,000 tons LCE, accounting for approximately 8% of the national monthly output [1] - The halt is part of a broader regulatory trend, with other lithium resource mines in Yichun facing similar compliance processes, potentially constraining domestic lithium supply in the short term [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of August 2025, the lithium carbonate supply-demand balance remains loose, with domestic production at 430,000 tons and imports at 123,000 tons, totaling 553,000 tons of effective supply [2] - The apparent demand during the same period is approximately 522,000 tons, indicating a supply surplus of about 30,000 tons [2] - Social inventory remains above 140,000 tons, sufficient to cover short-term supply gaps despite the recent production halt [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industry is focusing on technological upgrades to mitigate resource uncertainties, including new lithium extraction processes that significantly improve recovery rates and reduce energy consumption [3] - The battery recycling market is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, with companies like CATL investing in wet recycling lines that achieve over 90% lithium recovery rates [3] - Innovations in material systems, such as high manganese LFMP and 9-series high nickel cathodes, are expected to reduce the amount of lithium required per kilowatt-hour by about 10% compared to traditional LFP [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The recent production halt reinforces the narrative of lithium resource scarcity, suggesting that companies with compliant mining rights and existing resources will benefit from premium valuations [3] - Midstream companies that can effectively pass on rising lithium prices are likely to see greater profit elasticity in the early stages of price increases [3] - Investment focus should be on industry leaders like CATL, which possess resource advantages and pricing power [3]