锌价下行风险
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中期产业过剩剧本维持不变 锌价存较大下行风险
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-22 08:20
Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market showed mixed performance on August 22, with zinc futures experiencing slight declines amid macroeconomic pressures and supply-demand dynamics [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The preliminary manufacturing PMI in the U.S. for August reached 53.3, unexpectedly hitting a three-year high, indicating increased inflationary pressures [1] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with initial jobless claims rising by 11,000 last week, which has influenced market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1] - Comments from three regional Federal Reserve presidents have dampened expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on zinc prices [1] Supply Dynamics - Supply remains relatively ample, with some zinc smelting plants increasing production capacity [1] - Domestic zinc ingot supply continues to grow, contributing to the overall supply situation [1] Demand Dynamics - The downstream market is exhibiting significant seasonal weakness, with initial consumption sectors operating at low capacity despite supportive policies [1] - Short-term demand remains weak, making it difficult to offset the overall market conditions [1] Market Outlook - Overseas registered zinc ingot warehouse receipts have hit a new low for 2024, although the pace of decline has slowed [1] - The backwardation in the London Metal Exchange (LME) market is showing signs of easing, but the medium-term outlook suggests continued oversupply in the industry [1] - There remains a substantial downside risk for zinc prices moving forward [1]